A direct, undesirable, but natural consequence of the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine was the process of accelerated transformation of the anti-Russian NATO bloc, into which new members were now gathering. Tensions on the northwestern border of our country will now rise sharply, and with them, military spending. Let's see what the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will have to deal with if suddenly, by the grace of our "peacekeepers", a Russophobic regime remains in power in Kyiv, which will continue to be pumped up with Western weapons.
The fact that Russia has switched to a military confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance can no longer be denied. So far, hostilities are being waged against us on the territory of Ukraine through a “proxy” represented by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. But now the whole of North-Eastern Europe is rapidly turning into an anti-Russian stronghold.
In connection with the events in Nezalezhnaya, it is the Republic of Poland that has the highest chances of directly colliding with Russia for a possible division of Western Ukraine. Warsaw's military preparations can no longer be overlooked. Next year, the defense budget will be increased to 3% of GDP. In the image and likeness of the Ukrainian territorial defense, Poland in 2016 created its own Territorial Defense Forces. The Minister of Defense of the country, Mariusz Blaszczak, announced plans to increase the size of the army from 143 to 300 people, which would make the Polish Army the largest in the Old World. Warsaw also began to actively purchase foreign weapons: Turkish Bayraktar UAVs, American Patriot air defense systems, F-35 fifth-generation fighters, and HIMARS missile and artillery systems. Negotiations are underway to acquire 250 Abrams tanks.
A direct clash between the Polish army and the Russian army is possible in Western Ukraine, depending on how serious Moscow and Warsaw have plans for it.
To date, the NATO bloc has created four strike groups in the Baltics at once, armed with tanks, artillery and all the necessary reconnaissance equipment. Each of them has more than 10 thousand military personnel. According to some military experts, in the future the number of the military contingent of the North Atlantic Alliance in this region may increase by another 4 times.
A direct military clash between NATO and the Russian army is possible when the latter tries to break through the so-called Suwalki corridor through the territory of Lithuania or Poland, which will be inevitable in the event of a land and sea blockade of the Kaliningrad region.
The most unpleasant consequence of the NWO in Ukraine was the pronounced desire of Finland and Sweden to join the North Atlantic Alliance. And NATO looks at this with great approval, which was personally confirmed by German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock:
If Finland and Sweden decide to do so, then welcome.
This decision can seriously change the balance of power in Northern Europe. Recall that Russia has a common border with Finland 1300 kilometers long, and from it to St. Petersburg, the second largest metropolis, is within easy reach. The neutral status of the northern neighbors for a long time allowed the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation not to keep significant military contingents there. Now everything will change for the worse.
At first, both Finland and Sweden, formally not being members of NATO, have Armed Forces de facto created according to NATO standards.
Secondly, the accession of Finland to the North Atlantic Alliance finally turns the Baltic Sea into a NATO inland sea. The Navy, equipped with a large number of high-speed missile boats and minesweepers, will allow Helsinki to easily block the exit of Russian ships from the Gulf of Finland with minefields, interrupting sea communication with Kaliningrad.
Thirdly, strike weapons from the NATO bloc can be deployed on the territory of neighboring Finland, and the country's air force has purchased a batch of American fifth-generation F-35 fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
All this poses a huge and very real threat to both the Kaliningrad region and the second largest Russian metropolis, St. Petersburg.
What will answer?
In response, the Russian Defense Ministry will have to draw up significant forces in the northwestern direction. Near St. Petersburg, it will be necessary to deploy on a permanent basis a combined arms formation of up to 10 people. To protect this strategically important industrial cluster, it will be necessary to form a powerful layered air defense / missile defense system. The border with the northern neighbors will be constantly patrolled by reconnaissance drones. Aviation will have to be on duty in the number one readiness mode, that is, constantly be in shifts in the air. Otherwise, alas, there is no way, since there are only 200 kilometers from the Finnish border to St. Petersburg, enemy missiles will fly over it very quickly.
It will also have to further militarize the Kaliningrad region. Nuclear weapons can be placed in the Russian exclave, as Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Security Council, directly stated:
Seriously strengthen the grouping of ground forces and air defense, deploy significant naval forces in the waters of the Gulf of Finland. In this case, it will no longer be possible to talk about any non-nuclear status of the Baltic - the balance must be restored.
Apparently, we are talking about the Iskander-M OTRK with nuclear warheads, storage facilities for which were already built in advance in the Kaliningrad region. The Russian Strategic Missile Forces will now be forced to target Finland and Sweden as well.
There is not the slightest doubt that the Russian Defense Ministry's retaliatory actions will entail further steps by the NATO bloc to escalate pre-war tensions. The military contingents will grow on both sides, North-Eastern Europe will be pumped with weapons, military budgets will grow, and the Western military-industrial complex will count profits. For Russia, such an arms race in the region, while there are active hostilities in Ukraine, is extremely disadvantageous.
Therefore, it is necessary to smash the Armed Forces of Ukraine as soon as possible, take the territory of the former Square under control, up to the admission of the South-East into the Russian Federation, make Little Russia a buffer state under the protectorate of Moscow and build a new border with Poland. Otherwise, the Russian army may simply not be enough for all areas at once, which, in fact, is what the Pentagon is trying to achieve.