What will happen to Russian gas exports to Europe in 5-7 years

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The special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine has become a serious test for the world economics and, above all, for European and Russian. For the sake of supporting the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv, the American puppets in Brussels are ready to fundamentally refuse to purchase "blue fuel" from Gazprom. But the reality is that the EU will have to pay for this by abandoning its own industry to the delight of US manufacturers, which neither Germany nor France, the pillars of the European Union, are ready for. Moscow has managed to take advantage of a unique window of opportunity by launching a NWO right now.

Here I would like to once again talk about the forecasts that we make, and whether they come true or not. February 18, 2022 on the "Reporter" came out publication under the heading "Russia has no more than 5 years left to solve the "Ukrainian problem"". In it, we argued that the "Russian invasion", if it suddenly takes place, will entail a fundamental refusal of the EU to purchase gas from our country. At the same time, it was pointed out that there is simply no surplus of LNG on the world market, and then European consumers will have to enter into a price war for gas with Asian ones, since LNG prices are always higher in Southeast Asia. The author of the lines finds it necessary to quote himself:



But then the energy crisis will begin in Southeast Asia. The local "tigers" will either have to increase the selling price of their products, or curtail the volume of industrial production. In the first case, this will require buying LNG even more expensive than in Europe. This de facto means the Euro-Asian "gas war". It is clear that this is not beneficial to anyone, with the exception, perhaps, of LNG exporters. All global players have an interest in avoiding such extreme scenarios.

The root of the problem lies in the lack of free volumes of gas. So far, there is not enough LNG to meet the needs of both the European Union and Southeast Asia at the same time. According to some estimates, it may take 5 to 10 years for a corresponding increase in LNG production.

In other words, Russia realistically has 5 years when it can still solve the "Ukrainian problem" without the proper level of opposition from the NATO bloc. After this period, everything will change for the worse for our country.

Something like this. The special military operation began on February 24, 2022. The EU countries declared their refusal to purchase Russian gas. The US has offered to supply an additional 15 billion cubic meters of gas, which is only a tenth of what the Old World needs. Brussels has turned its fiery gaze on Qatar, the world's largest LNG producer, but Ed-Doha has not pleased. Energy Minister of Qatar Saad Al-Kaabi said that in the next 5-7 years his country will not be able to replace Gazprom in Europe:

In general, when talking about the situation in Ukraine or in Europe, people often say that Qatar can replace Russian gas. I have already stated in this regard that 30-40% of supplies come from Russia. I think that no one can replace Russia in this regard. Unfortunately, we do not yet have such volumes of LNG for which there are long-term contracts, so it is impossible.

So, no one will be able to replace Russia in this perspective, which means that Europe will have to find out what Russian rubles look like and start buying them from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to pay for "blue fuel". It turns out that the Kremlin really managed to take advantage of this unique window of opportunity to start a NWO in Ukraine. But what will happen next, in 5-7 years?

It is obvious that the collective West has moved on to a real "Cold War-2" with Russia. Refusal to purchase Russian energy carriers is a medium-term issue, but Europe will really go for it. What to do with gas from already drilled wells, and where will our federal budget revenues come from?

The questions are not easy, but the right ones. In this regard, there are the following considerations.

firstwhat comes to mind is the accelerated construction of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, which will transfer to the Chinese market 50 billion cubic meters of gas from the fields of Western Siberia, from where Europe is now supplied. At the same time, this will make it possible to gasify a number of Russian regions. True, it is not worth counting on a generous flow of yuan on us. The Chinese comrades will undoubtedly take advantage of the difficult situation in which Gazprom now finds itself in order to extract from it the maximum discounts and the most favorable conditions for themselves. But anyway.

The second, a more promising direction, seems to be the active development of the LNG industry. Technology liquefaction makes it possible to supply gas by tankers to any market without being tied to expensive main pipelines. Along the way, Russian LNG in a tanker can change ownership and go to the Chinese, Japanese, European or even American market (there was such a thing). In the new geopolitical realities, betting on LNG as a flexible supply tool looks the most reasonable.

The third direction refers, rather, to the category of non-market methods of competition. It can be recalled that Qatar is one of the active sponsors of international terrorism, which financed, among other things, militants who fought against the official authorities in Syria, which is friendly to us. This small, but very rich and extremely active state, has a lot of questions from its Arab neighbors. If his expansion into the European gas market begins to pose a real threat to Russia's national interests, then there are various options for how to moderate his ardor. Joke.

Joking aside, the war with the collective West and its satellites has already begun, and Moscow will have to act harder and harder in the future.
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14 comments
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  1. +7
    27 March 2022 12: 08
    During these five seven years, a techno revolution can occur in Russia, during the time of rest. So the atom, hydrogen and new technologies will allow us not to be left without income. Moreover, by changing the credit policy away from the Breton Woods agreement, we can provide ourselves with money. It's time to change your mindset about money. Under Stalin, we did not depend on dollars and built our lives ourselves and did not remain without technology.
  2. -3
    27 March 2022 13: 15
    The primary task of the Russian Federation is to create a unified oil and gas pipeline network.
    Within 5 years, the EU will switch to centralized purchases of energy carriers with their subsequent internal redistribution.
    It will accelerate the development of large deposits in Israel, Cyprus, Egypt and North Africa, shale gas deposits in Europe.
    Activates activity in the region of Central Asia, Iran, the Persian Gulf.
    Will expand exploration work in associated, friendly and dependent territories.
    Reconsider the attitude towards nuclear energy.
    New technologies for generating energy due to temperature difference, thermonuclear fusion, transfer of solar energy from space to ground stations, etc.
    Transition to targeted wireless transmission to consumers of electricity over long distances.
    Improving the energy efficiency of production, transport and housing and communal services.
    1. +4
      27 March 2022 13: 40
      and master life on Mars, storyteller, for starters, let Europe live these 5-7 years
    2. +1
      28 March 2022 19: 51
      And what prevented them from developing these deposits earlier?
    3. The comment was deleted.
  3. +2
    27 March 2022 14: 24
    And why do many focus only on China? Why only China? Or is only China on the map? And Vietnam, Mongolia, India, and maybe North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea? Somehow the author has a world within the narrow Chinese framework.
  4. +1
    27 March 2022 14: 37
    What big cans of condensed milk in the photo!)))
  5. 0
    27 March 2022 16: 12
    Who can guarantee the security of LNG supplies from Qatar? Anything can happen along the way...
  6. 0
    27 March 2022 16: 24
    The author of the condensed milk logo will receive a state award!
  7. 0
    27 March 2022 16: 52
    À la guerre comme à la guerre. In war, as in war. Let's turn off the Turkish stream, northern 1. Germany will lose not only the gas that they use at home, but also that which they trade in Europe for their own benefit (about 1/3 is self-needs, 2/3 is speculation). Ukrainian will perish along with Ukraine itself. Freedom-loving European citizens spoiled by comfort and hamburgers, following the example of their counterparts in Ukraine, will start burning car tires in many places. Green energy, having lost the roof of traditional energy, on which it parasitizes, will show its impotence. Let's wait until that time. Building more distant forecasts is not a thankful task. Here the matter will be seen in half a year. The first results are already in:

  8. +1
    27 March 2022 17: 04
    There is an idea that Ukrainian anchor mines, torn off by storms, may be carried by unknown undercurrents to the Atlantic, where, quite by accident, several American gas carriers may blow up on them.
  9. +2
    27 March 2022 20: 04
    The author, you missed another direction, gas processing in the Russian Federation, not only LNG production.
    And the production of chemical products, starting from separation into fractions - methane, ethane, propane and further, the cost of which, with a sufficient degree of purity, is several times higher than the cost of natural gas.
    In the future, the construction of production facilities from them, polyethylene and other things.
    Production of ammonia and its derivatives, in particular nitrogen fertilizers. The world market for these products is now fairly free, for the production of 1 ton of ammonia, 1100 to 1300 m3 of gas is required. In more understandable figures, out of 1 billion m3 of natural gas, about 900 thousand tons. For 2017, the world production of ammonia is 174 million tons, for the same year, 19 million tons of ammonia were produced in the Russian Federation.
    Ammonia is a rather dangerous product, its transportation is not an easy problem, it is more profitable to make nitrogen fertilizers from it, and the market is wider and prices are higher.
    It is quite logical to disconnect existing gas pipelines to Europe from Europe, to install such gas processing plants closer to the border and ports of the Russian Federation.
    In response to the EC Decisions to stop buying gas from the Russian Federation by 2030-2035, to publish our concept of reducing natural gas supplies and developing the natural gas processing industry and the development of petrochemicals and petrochemicals by the same 2035. In this situation, it is not clear whether we will be able to develop these industries to such an extent, but it is quite appropriate to announce.
  10. 0
    27 March 2022 20: 55
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    The primary task of the Russian Federation is to create a unified oil and gas pipeline network.
    Within 5 years, the EU will switch to centralized purchases of energy carriers with their subsequent internal redistribution.
    It will accelerate the development of large deposits in Israel, Cyprus, Egypt and North Africa, shale gas deposits in Europe.
    Activates activity in the region of Central Asia, Iran, the Persian Gulf.
    Will expand exploration work in associated, friendly and dependent territories.
    Reconsider the attitude towards nuclear energy.
    New technologies for generating energy due to temperature difference, thermonuclear fusion, transfer of solar energy from space to ground stations, etc.
    Transition to targeted wireless transmission to consumers of electricity over long distances.
    Improving the energy efficiency of production, transport and housing and communal services.

    Bullshit. What kind of fusion, the transfer of energy from space? Centralized purchases were in the USSR. Forced prices and forced deliveries, no choice. What ended? This is in a single country, with a command economy. And if a hundred different countries, with their own interests, opportunities, economic capacities, and so on ...?
  11. +1
    27 March 2022 21: 51
    And why has nothing been said about the plan for the development of hydrogen energy in Russia?
    But Russia has competitive advantages in this area. These are the availability of production capacities and proximity to hydrogen consumers. These are the EU countries, China, Japan.
    And it seems like they are going to launch pilot hydrogen plants already in 2024. The first producers of hydrogen will be Gazprom and Rosatom,
    And as they write, by 2030 Russia can transfer part of its gas pipelines to Europe to hydrogen.
  12. 0
    28 March 2022 06: 16
    Quote: Roma Phil
    These are the EU countries, China, Japan.
    And it seems like they are going to launch pilot hydrogen plants already in 2024. The first producers of hydrogen will be Gazprom and Rosatom,
    And as they write, by 2030 Russia can transfer part of its gas pipelines to Europe to hydrogen.

    Didn't you understand that the EU countries and Japan are ready to strangle Russia to their own detriment? So what's the difference between gas and hydrogen then?