How the Russian military operation in Ukraine changed the whole world

March 18 2022 6

A special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine produced the effect of a bombshell. On the one hand, the collective West, since 2014, purposefully and stubbornly led the case towards a war between Ukraine and Russia. On the other hand, they were obviously very surprised when the “Russian bear” woke up and nevertheless appeared at this “non-war” with noise and dust. These dramatic events undoubtedly played the role of a stone thrown into the water, the waves from the fall of which have already irrevocably changed the whole world and the course of its history.

Without claiming to be comprehensive analysis, I would like to share my observations on how the policy some countries that ended up objectively in different camps after February 24, 2022. We see how the United States and its many allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region have taken the side of Ukraine, providing it with all possible military assistance and imposing tough anti-Russian sanctions. However, not all countries ended up in this camp.

Post-Soviet space

The behavior of Tbilisi is very revealing in this vein. In addition to Ukraine, Georgia was the second main contender for NATO membership. After the defeat in the "Olympic War" and the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this country was extremely anti-Russian. Georgia's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance would create an additional headache for the Russian Defense Ministry on the southern flank. Threatening to join NATO is a game that some of the former Soviet republics liked to play. And what do we see now?

After February 24, 2022, it suddenly became clear that these were very dangerous games with fire. The patience of the "Russian bear" turned out to be far from limitless. In 2008, Russian troops stopped just 40 kilometers from Tbilisi. Who said that for the second time during the special military demilitarization operation they would stop? Let us note how friendly and helpful the Georgian authorities suddenly became, refusing to join the anti-Russian sanctions. Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili immediately stated this:

I want to clearly and unequivocally state that Georgia, taking into account our national interests, is not going to participate in financial and economic sanctions.

Well, well done!

We also note that as the Russian troops advance through the territory of the Odessa region, the authorities of Transnistria become more and more bold in their aspirations. Seeing a real opportunity to finally get rid of the blockade by Moldova and Ukraine, Tiraspol called on Chisinau and the UN to recognize the independence of the proclaimed republic. In response, the deputies from Romania, who dreamed of swallowing Moldova, initiated the adoption by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) of a resolution on the "occupation" of part of Moldova by Russia. Perhaps something will happen soon in that direction.

Circles on the water diverge further and further ...

BRICS

In the legendary pre-war and pre-Covid times, there was an informal BRICS club in the world, consisting of five rapidly developing countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In general, he was positioned as a counterbalance to the collective West led by the United States. In the past few years, especially significant News in the line of this interest club was not noticed. However, during the current crisis, its leading participants have begun to show increased activity.

For example, on February 16, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro flew to Moscow to negotiate the supply of potash fertilizers, 70% of which Brazil imports from Russia. According to him, it was possible to agree on doubling the volume of deliveries. The day before, it suddenly turned out that during negotiations with his Russian counterpart, Bolsonaro raised the issue of assistance from the Russian military-industrial complex in creating the first Brazilian nuclear submarine. Quite unexpectedly for this South American country, but after the appearance of the nuclear submarine in Australia, in principle, there is nothing to be surprised at. According to the President of Brazil, the United States had previously denied him militarytechnical assistance.

True, the events of February 24, 2022 hung this question in the air, but, according to Folha de S. Paulo, the official Brasilia still hopes to get its way. Presumably, the Brazilian authorities are holding a pause, waiting for how the conflict in Ukraine will end. However, with regard to economic cooperation, it will continue and deepen, despite Western anti-Russian sanctions. This was already stated on March 5 by the head of our diplomatic mission, Aleksey Labetsky:

Brazil is our main trading partner on the Latin American continent, with a trade turnover of almost $7,5 billion last year. Naturally, we intend to develop and strengthen this trend, including in the new conditions. And during the official visit of President Jair Bolsonaro to our country, his talks with the Russian leadership, Vladimir Putin, the mutual interest in developing trade, economic and investment ties was emphasized.

Also in this context, the initiative of China is interesting, which decided to switch from dollars to yuan in settlements for oil with Saudi Arabia. A rather strange, at first glance, step on the part of Riyadh, which was considered a true ally of the United States in the Middle East. However, the Saudis are very tense that Washington is ready to lift sanctions from Tehran in order to return Iranian oil to the market to replace Russian oil.

Beijing is very closely watching what is happening in Ukraine now, and how the “hegemon” and its satellites react to it. If Moscow holds its own, and the price of victory is acceptable, the likelihood of a "final solution to the Taiwan question" increases dramatically. If the PLA is able to establish control over the island, not Russian, but American companies will be left without the supply of processors.

This is far from all, but the most interesting and significant, in our opinion, circles on the water that dispersed after the events of February 24, 2022.

Sergey Marzhetsky

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qtfreet

-5

18 March 2022 16: 20

Quote from Ivan Fedyakov, founder and CEO of INFOLine consulting agency:

All talk about import substitution is pure bluff bordering on populism. No full-fledged import substitution is possible. Firstly, there is not a single economy in the world that would live in complete isolation and with complete import substitution. Secondly, we have been actively talking about import substitution since at least 2014. And if we have not carried out import substitution in eight years under favorable conditions, then I don’t quite understand how we will do it under unfavorable conditions. It's like going to some athletic competition, running a marathon and before the start, not shooting in the air, but shooting yourself in the leg and trying to win the competition.

Without interaction with our European partners, without building ties with them, without restoring ties with them, I see absolutely no prospects for the Russian economy, except for pessimistic ones.

Let's even assume that China will reject the secondary sanctions that they are now being threatened with from across the ocean so that they do not support Russia. Even if they are ready to trade with us further, we have only four border crossings along the entire length of a large long border. Their capacity will not provide goods, let alone the European part of Russia, it will not provide the necessary goods even to the Urals and Siberia so as not to notice and feel the difference.

Predictions can be made, but the question is whether they will come true or not. The likelihood that they will come true is now not so great. We can say that there will be high inflation. There are all prerequisites. In March, it will be at least 10% from the beginning of the year, I think even more (according to Rosstat, by March 11, prices rose by 5,62%), by April it will already reach 20-30%. Yes, if we add inflation from April to December to these percentages, then this is inflation at the level of 30-40%. This is a very high level. There has not been such inflation since the 90s, but it will be.

Naturally, no indexation promised today to pensioners, civil servants, and so on, will be carried out for such a level of inflation. Well, as it were, they will increase by 10-15%. We have 47 million pensioners in Russia. If you and I, as active and capable people, can go and get a second job or just work more actively and earn extra money, then pensioners, unfortunately, do not have such an opportunity. And therefore, a third of the population of our country is now, at least, impoverished. And we already have 20% of the population living below the subsistence level.

We can now say about the decline in the population's income that it will be at the level of 10% this year. It is possible that it will be more. What is 10%? This is worse than in the pandemic year of 2020, when there was a 7,5% decline in the second quarter. So far, it is at the level of 98, when the decline in real incomes of the population was 12%.

If this military special operation continues, then with a high probability I can say that there will be a shortage. This is simply a consequence of the fact that we are very deeply integrated into relationships, primarily with European partners, and to a lesser extent with the Americans. This integration cannot be rebuilt overnight.

Factories are shutting down right now. AvtoVAZ announced that it was going on vacation for a month due to a shortage of components. Accordingly, KAMAZ announced a 40% reduction in production volumes and the transfer of 15 employees to idle mode, but they did not indicate the terms. Idle mode - it is a little worse for employees, because if they have a vacation, then employees receive vacation pay. Idle mode - according to the legislation, 000/2 of the salary, of course, without bonuses, bonuses and everything else.

The consequences of these actions will lead to shortages. If a plant does not produce equipment for a month, then it will be sold out in a month, and there will be no equipment - then there will be a shortage. If the military operation in Ukraine stops, then we will have a chance to minimize losses, restore some ties, at least lift the logistical blockade from Russia. Deficiency cannot be avoided. It will be, but it will be, relatively speaking, local. If the military operation continues, and the conflict escalates, then the consequences will aggravate exponentially.

When foreign companies announced the suspension of work in Russia, they stopped supplying here with components that are necessary for the production of final products. But this is half the trouble. The second half of the trouble is that Russia is in a logistical blockade. Now, even if the companies would not announce their withdrawal, they cannot supply products, because the borders are de facto closed. Nothing can be sent to Russia and nothing can be taken out. Well, perhaps only through the pipe or in small batches at all.

Trucks, ships - this is the main logistics tool for transporting such industrial goods - have now ceased to go. In fact, the border cannot be crossed. And that's a big problem. This isolation that we have now is logistical, it is worse than this sanctions story.

This logistical blockade, in my understanding, will definitely not be lifted as long as there is a military special operation in Ukraine, as long as millions of Ukrainians stand on the same border in order to escape from this special operation on the territory of neighboring countries. Until the tension that is going through the roof all over the world from what is happening is not removed, until then this blockade will remain. That's all.

Your opinion?
1. cooper
  
  +2
  
  19 March 2022 04: 21
  
  Good whining.
zzdimk

+4

18 March 2022 17: 17

Live! Nazism is over. No interest. Remove this filth. I won't say why, but I can't be there. I can not, but I want to destroy this muck.
Sergey Latyshev

0

18 March 2022 21: 47

The main change is that NATO countries have begun to announce that they will double their military budget.

The State Department and the military-industrial complex are happily rubbing their hands, now they have an unexpected excellent excuse for everything.
borisvt

+1

19 March 2022 11: 52

Unfortunately, the author did not touch upon how South Africa reacted to what was happening. To my surprise, this country voted to condemn our operation at the relevant meeting of the UN General Assembly
Jacques sekavar

+1

19 March 2022 18: 44

The military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine is an example of how a regional war is changing the whole world - it undermines the existing world order, trust in international institutions and treaties, threatens with an economic crisis and social instability, a redistribution of spheres of influence and an increase in the political and economic power of the PRC.