A special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine produced the effect of a bombshell. On the one hand, the collective West, since 2014, purposefully and stubbornly led the case towards a war between Ukraine and Russia. On the other hand, they were obviously very surprised when the “Russian bear” woke up and nevertheless appeared at this “non-war” with noise and dust. These dramatic events undoubtedly played the role of a stone thrown into the water, the waves from the fall of which have already irrevocably changed the whole world and the course of its history.
Without claiming to be comprehensive analysis, I would like to share my observations on how the policy some countries that ended up objectively in different camps after February 24, 2022. We see how the United States and its many allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region have taken the side of Ukraine, providing it with all possible military assistance and imposing tough anti-Russian sanctions. However, not all countries ended up in this camp.
The behavior of Tbilisi is very revealing in this vein. In addition to Ukraine, Georgia was the second main contender for NATO membership. After the defeat in the "Olympic War" and the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this country was extremely anti-Russian. Georgia's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance would create an additional headache for the Russian Defense Ministry on the southern flank. Threatening to join NATO is a game that some of the former Soviet republics liked to play. And what do we see now?
After February 24, 2022, it suddenly became clear that these were very dangerous games with fire. The patience of the "Russian bear" turned out to be far from limitless. In 2008, Russian troops stopped just 40 kilometers from Tbilisi. Who said that for the second time during the special military demilitarization operation they would stop? Let us note how friendly and helpful the Georgian authorities suddenly became, refusing to join the anti-Russian sanctions. Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili immediately stated this:
I want to clearly and unequivocally state that Georgia, taking into account our national interests, is not going to participate in financial and economic sanctions.
Well, well done!
We also note that as the Russian troops advance through the territory of the Odessa region, the authorities of Transnistria become more and more bold in their aspirations. Seeing a real opportunity to finally get rid of the blockade by Moldova and Ukraine, Tiraspol called on Chisinau and the UN to recognize the independence of the proclaimed republic. In response, the deputies from Romania, who dreamed of swallowing Moldova, initiated the adoption by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) of a resolution on the "occupation" of part of Moldova by Russia. Perhaps something will happen soon in that direction.
Circles on the water diverge further and further ...
In the legendary pre-war and pre-Covid times, there was an informal BRICS club in the world, consisting of five rapidly developing countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In general, he was positioned as a counterbalance to the collective West led by the United States. In the past few years, especially significant News in the line of this interest club was not noticed. However, during the current crisis, its leading participants have begun to show increased activity.
For example, on February 16, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro flew to Moscow to negotiate the supply of potash fertilizers, 70% of which Brazil imports from Russia. According to him, it was possible to agree on doubling the volume of deliveries. The day before, it suddenly turned out that during negotiations with his Russian counterpart, Bolsonaro raised the issue of assistance from the Russian military-industrial complex in creating the first Brazilian nuclear submarine. Quite unexpectedly for this South American country, but after the appearance of the nuclear submarine in Australia, in principle, there is nothing to be surprised at. According to the President of Brazil, the United States had previously denied him militarytechnical assistance.
True, the events of February 24, 2022 hung this question in the air, but, according to Folha de S. Paulo, the official Brasilia still hopes to get its way. Presumably, the Brazilian authorities are holding a pause, waiting for how the conflict in Ukraine will end. However, with regard to economic cooperation, it will continue and deepen, despite Western anti-Russian sanctions. This was already stated on March 5 by the head of our diplomatic mission, Aleksey Labetsky:
Brazil is our main trading partner on the Latin American continent, with a trade turnover of almost $7,5 billion last year. Naturally, we intend to develop and strengthen this trend, including in the new conditions. And during the official visit of President Jair Bolsonaro to our country, his talks with the Russian leadership, Vladimir Putin, the mutual interest in developing trade, economic and investment ties was emphasized.
Also in this context, the initiative of China is interesting, which decided to switch from dollars to yuan in settlements for oil with Saudi Arabia. A rather strange, at first glance, step on the part of Riyadh, which was considered a true ally of the United States in the Middle East. However, the Saudis are very tense that Washington is ready to lift sanctions from Tehran in order to return Iranian oil to the market to replace Russian oil.
Beijing is very closely watching what is happening in Ukraine now, and how the “hegemon” and its satellites react to it. If Moscow holds its own, and the price of victory is acceptable, the likelihood of a "final solution to the Taiwan question" increases dramatically. If the PLA is able to establish control over the island, not Russian, but American companies will be left without the supply of processors.
This is far from all, but the most interesting and significant, in our opinion, circles on the water that dispersed after the events of February 24, 2022.