The special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine has been going on for almost three weeks. It is difficult to say how long it will last exactly, but intuition suggests that the case may drag on for another 1,5-3 months, depending on how long the shock fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assembled against the DPR and LPR lasts. After the elimination of this "mega-cauldron", like dominoes, the Ukrainian defense in all other directions will quickly crumble. The question is, what will happen next when this "non-war" is over?
The most terrible question for Russian jingoistic patriots is who will “feed the Ukrainian sharovars”? And to feed, to one degree or another, you still have to. In the course of hostilities, industry is being destroyed, bridges, transport infrastructure, residential buildings, kindergartens and schools are being destroyed, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces and National Guardsmen specially hide from Russian missile and air strikes. It is unlikely that in 2022 the sowing work will be fully carried out in the former Nezalezhnaya, which means that the budget will not receive foreign exchange earnings. Moreover, even a famine is possible next year, unless, of course, Russia, a generous soul, comes to the rescue. Due to the naval blockade of Odessa and Mariupol, the export of any Ukrainian products is in principle impossible. With all this, Kyiv is heavily in debt to Western creditors, which must be regularly serviced.
Let's be realistic: it's impossible to just enter Ukraine for a short time, conduct a special military operation there with limited goals, and then quietly leave. Now these are our problems that will have to be solved somehow. Judging by the comments, the vast majority of Russians do not want to “feed the sharovars” at their own expense. The position is as follows: we will release you now, and then we ourselves, all by ourselves. Others, with some malice, discuss the destruction of the Kharkiv armored plant and the Zorya-Mashproekt enterprise in Nikolaev by rocket strikes. Like, we will finally “de-communize” you, nullifying the “heavy legacy of the Soviet Union” in the form of heavy industry, and Ukraine will turn into a purely agrarian country that will have to support itself. Don't you think there is some contradiction in all this?
Let us recall the experience of the restoration of post-war Germany, if these historical parallels suggest themselves. After the defeat of the Third Reich and the capture of Berlin, the question arose of what to do with the millions of angry and lost Germans. Denazification is denazification, but social being is determined the economy. I had to carry out a monetary reform and provide serious financial assistance. As part of the Marshall Plan, loans, equipment and Technology. The US has a huge growing European market. The German economic miracle happened swiftly, turning Germany into one of the most developed countries in the world. By the way, there is still a huge number of American military personnel and a warehouse for storing tactical nuclear weapons in Germany, which largely explains the closeness of the positions of Washington and Berlin on key issues of foreign policy bloc NATO.
Why do we remember all this? Yes, because exactly the same challenges are facing Russia in the Ukrainian direction. The root of the economic problems of the former Nezalezhnaya lies in its choice made after Maidan in 2014. Kyiv signed an agreement on European association, fully opening its domestic market to Western goods. It immediately turned out that no one really needs Ukrainian goods in the EU, there are so many of their own producers that you can’t push through. At the same time, due to the break in relations with Moscow, Ukraine has lost access to the Russian market. Particularly painful for our country was the refusal to supply military-industrial complex products - power plants for aviation and the navy, other components, missile maintenance, etc.
It cannot be said that no one in the former Nezalezhnaya understands the disastrous nature of such a pro-Western choice. So, back in 2020, Natalya Korolevskaya, a Verkhovna Rada deputy from the Opposition Platform for Life faction, stated in plain text:
The government strategy will definitely not save the industry, because without the return of the lost markets of Russia and the countries of the former CIS, the industry will not return to its previous level.
In the same vein, ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and ex-adviser to the president of the country Anna German spoke at the time:
There was a vector to weaken Russia through Ukraine. When Ukraine is with Russia, Russia is invincible.
In general, the way it is. Let's mentally fast-forward to the near future, when the "non-war" will end. What should we do with the dilapidated Ukraine? Demolish during the fighting the remnants of industrial enterprises and force the "sharovars" to eat from the gardens? This is not serious. Take a huge country with a multi-million brutalized population for the full maintenance of the Russian federal budget? It's unrealistic.
There is only one adequate scenario, which involves a forced revision by Kiev of its agreement on European association and entry into the EAEU. After that, Ukrainian industrial and agricultural enterprises will be able to gain access to the Russian market, which is objectively the key one for them. The onset of peace will allow the former Nezalezhnaya to switch to direct purchases of Russian gas without intermediary markups, perhaps even with an “allied” discount (if an agreement is signed on joining the Union State of Belarus and Belarus). There is no doubt that the main financial burden to restore the destroyed infrastructure, hospitals, schools, kindergartens, bridges and roads in the country should fall on those Ukrainian millionaires and billionaires who for 8 years supported the neo-Nazi regime and all kinds of nationalist organizations that terrorized the Russian-speaking population.
Regarding the financial assistance of Russia in the restoration of Ukraine. It is time to move in relations with Kiev from charity to purely business relations. The most reasonable option for the post-war reorganization of the former Independence seems to be its transformation into a confederate state, consisting of the federal Novorossia, Little Russia and several small national republics in the west. What better tool for economic assistance and at the same time for the reintegration of Novorossiya than the restoration of industrial ties with Russia?
On the eve of article about the city of shipbuilders Nikolaev, we talked about the fact that ships for the Russian Navy could be built at its shipyards after liberation. Some of our "couch experts" were immediately indignant, calling it jumping on a rake and wrecking, they say, we have already replaced everything with imports, because there is supposedly no need. We have replaced imports, but how much is actually produced per year, for example, gas turbines and gearboxes for Project 22350 frigates? What do we have with more powerful power plants? At what particular shipyard today can one lay down and build a class ship, say, a destroyer or a cruiser? By the way, the cruisers of the Atlant project, which include the flagships of the Black Sea and Pacific Fleets, were built at the Nikolaev Shipbuilding Plant. TAVKR "Admiral Kuznetsov" was built at the "Chernomorsky Shipbuilding Plant". Where in Russia to build warships of such classes? Nowhere. All shipyards are filled with orders for years to come and, to put it mildly, they are not building very quickly.
The same is possible say and about power plants for the needs of the aircraft industry. Yes, we have coped with helicopter engines, and this is wonderful. But today, Russian civil aviation has come under sectoral Western sanctions. It is necessary to switch to domestically produced liners, but which ones? MS-21 and "Superjet-100" are themselves heavily dependent on foreign components. Instead of the Superjet, for example, it would be possible to start producing short-haul Tu-334 liners, but one cannot do without the D-436 engines produced in Zaporozhye. The promising Tu-324 liner, which was designed for the Ukrainian AI-22 engine, has the same problem. Also, the domestic aircraft industry would do well to resume industrial cooperation with the Antonov enterprise, and Roskosmos and the RF Ministry of Defense with Dnepropetrovsk Yuzhmash.
Why are we all this? Moreover, the restoration of economic cooperation between Russia and the former Ukraine is objectively beneficial to both countries. No one proposes curtailing the production of ship and aircraft power plants under the import substitution program in our country, but to speed up the construction of the navy, military and civil aviation, part of the orders can be placed in Novorossia. Or would our jingoistic patriots want to demolish these enterprises under the foundation and force the inhabitants of Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kyiv to eat from vegetable gardens? Such a destructive approach, to put it mildly, does not contribute to the normalization of relations and post-war life.
And the last thing I would like to say about this. Our professional critics are indignant that it is impossible to give military orders to another state, because this is jumping on a rake, and then everything will happen again. Friends, if the Kremlin wants, following the results of a special operation, to keep the regime of the legitimate President Zelensky in power, who will have to deal with denazification, then yes, in Ukraine everything will soon happen again, only even bloodier. If the power in Kyiv is changed to pro-Russian, stop-lists will be introduced for the occupation of certain positions by everyone noticed in nationalist activities, the former Independent will turn into a confederation, become part of the EAEU, the CSTO and the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, and on its territory Russian troops will be deployed on an indefinite basis, then the risk of a recurrence of the Maidan is minimal.
Let's leave the military units near Kiev, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Lvov. To avoid. So the question is not a rake, but how exactly to solve the Ukrainian problem. Look at Germany and how the Americans are handling it.