Should Russia, after the completion of the operation, support Ukraine


The special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine has been going on for almost three weeks. It is difficult to say how long it will last exactly, but intuition suggests that the case may drag on for another 1,5-3 months, depending on how long the shock fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assembled against the DPR and LPR lasts. After the elimination of this "mega-cauldron", like dominoes, the Ukrainian defense in all other directions will quickly crumble. The question is, what will happen next when this "non-war" is over?


The most terrible question for Russian jingoistic patriots is who will “feed the Ukrainian sharovars”? And to feed, to one degree or another, you still have to. In the course of hostilities, industry is being destroyed, bridges, transport infrastructure, residential buildings, kindergartens and schools are being destroyed, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces and National Guardsmen specially hide from Russian missile and air strikes. It is unlikely that in 2022 the sowing work will be fully carried out in the former Nezalezhnaya, which means that the budget will not receive foreign exchange earnings. Moreover, even a famine is possible next year, unless, of course, Russia, a generous soul, comes to the rescue. Due to the naval blockade of Odessa and Mariupol, the export of any Ukrainian products is in principle impossible. With all this, Kyiv is heavily in debt to Western creditors, which must be regularly serviced.

Let's be realistic: it's impossible to just enter Ukraine for a short time, conduct a special military operation there with limited goals, and then quietly leave. Now these are our problems that will have to be solved somehow. Judging by the comments, the vast majority of Russians do not want to “feed the sharovars” at their own expense. The position is as follows: we will release you now, and then we ourselves, all by ourselves. Others, with some malice, discuss the destruction of the Kharkiv armored plant and the Zorya-Mashproekt enterprise in Nikolaev by rocket strikes. Like, we will finally “de-communize” you, nullifying the “heavy legacy of the Soviet Union” in the form of heavy industry, and Ukraine will turn into a purely agrarian country that will have to support itself. Don't you think there is some contradiction in all this?

Let us recall the experience of the restoration of post-war Germany, if these historical parallels suggest themselves. After the defeat of the Third Reich and the capture of Berlin, the question arose of what to do with the millions of angry and lost Germans. Denazification is denazification, but social being is determined the economy. I had to carry out a monetary reform and provide serious financial assistance. As part of the Marshall Plan, loans, equipment and Technology. The US has a huge growing European market. The German economic miracle happened swiftly, turning Germany into one of the most developed countries in the world. By the way, there is still a huge number of American military personnel and a warehouse for storing tactical nuclear weapons in Germany, which largely explains the closeness of the positions of Washington and Berlin on key issues of foreign policy bloc NATO.

Why do we remember all this? Yes, because exactly the same challenges are facing Russia in the Ukrainian direction. The root of the economic problems of the former Nezalezhnaya lies in its choice made after Maidan in 2014. Kyiv signed an agreement on European association, fully opening its domestic market to Western goods. It immediately turned out that no one really needs Ukrainian goods in the EU, there are so many of their own producers that you can’t push through. At the same time, due to the break in relations with Moscow, Ukraine has lost access to the Russian market. Particularly painful for our country was the refusal to supply military-industrial complex products - power plants for aviation and the navy, other components, missile maintenance, etc.

It cannot be said that no one in the former Nezalezhnaya understands the disastrous nature of such a pro-Western choice. So, back in 2020, Natalya Korolevskaya, a Verkhovna Rada deputy from the Opposition Platform for Life faction, stated in plain text:

The government strategy will definitely not save the industry, because without the return of the lost markets of Russia and the countries of the former CIS, the industry will not return to its previous level.

In the same vein, ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and ex-adviser to the president of the country Anna German spoke at the time:

There was a vector to weaken Russia through Ukraine. When Ukraine is with Russia, Russia is invincible.

In general, the way it is. Let's mentally fast-forward to the near future, when the "non-war" will end. What should we do with the dilapidated Ukraine? Demolish during the fighting the remnants of industrial enterprises and force the "sharovars" to eat from the gardens? This is not serious. Take a huge country with a multi-million brutalized population for the full maintenance of the Russian federal budget? It's unrealistic.

There is only one adequate scenario, which involves a forced revision by Kiev of its agreement on European association and entry into the EAEU. After that, Ukrainian industrial and agricultural enterprises will be able to gain access to the Russian market, which is objectively the key one for them. The onset of peace will allow the former Nezalezhnaya to switch to direct purchases of Russian gas without intermediary markups, perhaps even with an “allied” discount (if an agreement is signed on joining the Union State of Belarus and Belarus). There is no doubt that the main financial burden to restore the destroyed infrastructure, hospitals, schools, kindergartens, bridges and roads in the country should fall on those Ukrainian millionaires and billionaires who for 8 years supported the neo-Nazi regime and all kinds of nationalist organizations that terrorized the Russian-speaking population.

Regarding the financial assistance of Russia in the restoration of Ukraine. It is time to move in relations with Kiev from charity to purely business relations. The most reasonable option for the post-war reorganization of the former Independence seems to be its transformation into a confederate state, consisting of the federal Novorossia, Little Russia and several small national republics in the west. What better tool for economic assistance and at the same time for the reintegration of Novorossiya than the restoration of industrial ties with Russia?

On the eve of article about the city of shipbuilders Nikolaev, we talked about the fact that ships for the Russian Navy could be built at its shipyards after liberation. Some of our "couch experts" were immediately indignant, calling it jumping on a rake and wrecking, they say, we have already replaced everything with imports, because there is supposedly no need. We have replaced imports, but how much is actually produced per year, for example, gas turbines and gearboxes for Project 22350 frigates? What do we have with more powerful power plants? At what particular shipyard today can one lay down and build a class ship, say, a destroyer or a cruiser? By the way, the cruisers of the Atlant project, which include the flagships of the Black Sea and Pacific Fleets, were built at the Nikolaev Shipbuilding Plant. TAVKR "Admiral Kuznetsov" was built at the "Chernomorsky Shipbuilding Plant". Where in Russia to build warships of such classes? Nowhere. All shipyards are filled with orders for years to come and, to put it mildly, they are not building very quickly.

The same is possible say and about power plants for the needs of the aircraft industry. Yes, we have coped with helicopter engines, and this is wonderful. But today, Russian civil aviation has come under sectoral Western sanctions. It is necessary to switch to domestically produced liners, but which ones? MS-21 and "Superjet-100" are themselves heavily dependent on foreign components. Instead of the Superjet, for example, it would be possible to start producing short-haul Tu-334 liners, but one cannot do without the D-436 engines produced in Zaporozhye. The promising Tu-324 liner, which was designed for the Ukrainian AI-22 engine, has the same problem. Also, the domestic aircraft industry would do well to resume industrial cooperation with the Antonov enterprise, and Roskosmos and the RF Ministry of Defense with Dnepropetrovsk Yuzhmash.

Why are we all this? Moreover, the restoration of economic cooperation between Russia and the former Ukraine is objectively beneficial to both countries. No one proposes curtailing the production of ship and aircraft power plants under the import substitution program in our country, but to speed up the construction of the navy, military and civil aviation, part of the orders can be placed in Novorossia. Or would our jingoistic patriots want to demolish these enterprises under the foundation and force the inhabitants of Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kyiv to eat from vegetable gardens? Such a destructive approach, to put it mildly, does not contribute to the normalization of relations and post-war life.

And the last thing I would like to say about this. Our professional critics are indignant that it is impossible to give military orders to another state, because this is jumping on a rake, and then everything will happen again. Friends, if the Kremlin wants, following the results of a special operation, to keep the regime of the legitimate President Zelensky in power, who will have to deal with denazification, then yes, in Ukraine everything will soon happen again, only even bloodier. If the power in Kyiv is changed to pro-Russian, stop-lists will be introduced for the occupation of certain positions by everyone noticed in nationalist activities, the former Independent will turn into a confederation, become part of the EAEU, the CSTO and the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, and on its territory Russian troops will be deployed on an indefinite basis, then the risk of a recurrence of the Maidan is minimal.

Let's leave the military units near Kiev, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Lvov. To avoid. So the question is not a rake, but how exactly to solve the Ukrainian problem. Look at Germany and how the Americans are handling it.
38 comments
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  1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 16 March 2022 12: 39
    +3
    I fully agree with the author
  2. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 16 March 2022 13: 02
    +1
    - They are too kind, it’s impossible to just go in and out - the Americans always come out just like that, and even stay, and I have not heard that they care about anyone there except for their own interests!
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 16 March 2022 13: 20
    +3
    As the practice of the collapse of the USSR shows, each state formation creates its own history and Heroes, and therefore, if the statehood of Ukraine is preserved in any of its forms, it will ultimately make all efforts to denazify Ukraine not only in vain, but will give impetus to an even greater surge of nationalism, chauvinism and Russophobia - It's a question of time.
    There is only one way to avoid this - to deprive Ukraine of statehood and include its administrative-territorial units in the Russian Federation as provinces, but by no means as republics.
    In this scenario, the issue of maintaining Ukraine disappears in principle and boils down to the development of certain territories within the framework of one state formation - the tax system collects tribute from everyone and everyone, and the government redistributes the collected. Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan and many other subjects of the federation help others who are less economically advanced due to their geographical, climatic, transport and other features, and this is normal. In Chukotka, for example, everything is imported - from a nail to flour for baking bread, but annually it ships 20 tons of gold to Nabiullina's bins, not to mention other material values. A similar situation throughout the country and in all state formations of the world without exception is the law of uneven development in action.
  4. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
    Mikhail L. 16 March 2022 13: 20
    +2
    ... The intention to create from Ukraine ... a confederation is impressive - that is, with the right to exit (where will we go?)!
    ...After the end of hostilities, Ukraine will face the issue of re-industrialization.
    ... To carry it out at the expense of "fat cats" - God himself ordered!
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 March 2022 13: 34
      0
      ..Impressive intention to create from Ukraine ... a confederation - that is, with the right to exit (where will we go?)!

      Novorossiya will have the right to voluntarily withdraw into a separate state. And there, in the future, it is possible to conclude a federal treaty with Russia.
      1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
        Mikhail L. 16 March 2022 13: 42
        +3
        ... And other members of the confederation will conclude agreements on ... association with the EU and joining NATO?
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 March 2022 13: 43
          0
          Are you deliberately omitting the theses about the need to preserve Russian military units on the territory of Little Russia and the former memory? Russia must remain in Ukraine just as the Americans still remain in Germany.
          1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
            Mikhail L. 16 March 2022 13: 46
            +2
            ... And what: these troops will permanently overthrow the "naughty" who are interested in the Western vector?
            1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
              Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 March 2022 13: 48
              0
              Those interested in the Western vector can simply not be allowed into politics through denazification stop-lists. This is a unique chance to clean up and improve the health of the Ukrainian politicians, replacing it with pro-Russian henchmen. Troops are a guarantee against the violent scenario of the Maidan.
              1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
                Mikhail L. 16 March 2022 13: 53
                +3
                ... In the current circumstances: the entire Ukrainian politicum is worthy of being placed on the "denazification stop-lists"!
                1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
                  Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 March 2022 13: 54
                  0
                  Quite right. I tell you, now is a unique chance to completely renew Ukrainian statehood, recreating it from scratch.
                  1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
                    Mikhail L. 16 March 2022 13: 57
                    +1
                    It was smooth on paper, but they forgot about the ravines, and walk on them

                    Leo Tolstoy
                    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
                      Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 March 2022 14: 51
                      0
                      The eyes are afraid, and the hands do

                      Folk wisdom
                      1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
                        Mikhail L. 16 March 2022 15: 56
                        0
                        ... It depends on what your hands are doing: you can "fearlessly" do yourself harm!
                      2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
                        Marzhecki (Sergei) 17 March 2022 06: 57
                        0
                        So first you need to think well with your head, which I always call for.
  • Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 16 March 2022 13: 31
    -1
    Whoever has dinner with a girl dances her. If the Russian Federation wants to "dance" Ukraine, then it should also help it with the "dinner". And if he also wants to develop, then you need to follow the example of the USA of the 1946 model - Introduce the ruble into the circulation of Ukraine and supply its products. To start building.
  • 59141 Offline 59141
    59141 (59141) 16 March 2022 13: 33
    0
    everything is simple. Divide into 2 parts. And at the expense of the west to restore the east.
    1. Carmela Offline Carmela
      Carmela (Carmela) 16 March 2022 13: 42
      +1
      Nothing just happens. If divided into 2 parts - the second part will become an eternal abscess near our border.
      1. 59141 Offline 59141
        59141 (59141) 16 March 2022 14: 47
        -1
        It is no longer our border, this time. Secondly, someone must answer for debts to the EU and the US.
  • goncharov.62 Offline goncharov.62
    goncharov.62 (Andrei) 16 March 2022 14: 09
    +1
    Only in the absence of the term "Ukraine" as such. Or let the Western part call it that, if it wants to.
  • likas Offline likas
    likas (likas tyrlo) 16 March 2022 14: 18
    -1
    Here we are still feeding Abkhazia .... Partially Chechnya, but the men adequately work out all the invested funds in Ukraine! We are still feeding the Crimea....not much. but still ... and even then there are already more payments than investments ... And on the territory of Ukraine there are a lot of factories and agricultural lands ... these people themselves will feed whomever you want if you organize everything right .... and not give it back again everything is at the discretion of the market and the capital. But exactly who will have to be fed is western Ukraine, where they never knew how to work or live, only consumption. I think it will be necessary to disarm them, shoot all Bandera and make there a non-bloc, unarmed and neutral country of Galicia.
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex 16 March 2022 14: 32
      0
      ... one BUT - there is now devastation worse than our 90s, and even battles will sweep across the entire territory ...
  • 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 16 March 2022 15: 08
    -1
    Some of our "couch experts" were immediately indignant, calling it jumping on a rake and wrecking, they say, we have already replaced everything with imports, because there is supposedly no need.

    I walked around the garden here, collected pebbles, I don’t need them, I can return them.
    How much is actually produced in Ukraine, for example, "gas turbines and gearboxes"? (the same applies to the D-436 and AI-22 engines). What's left of production?
    How many ships of the "class, say, destroyer or cruiser" have been built, and how many corvettes, too, have been built at Ukrainian shipyards over the past 30 years?
    If something is left from the production of engines (do not know what has been going on there since February 24), then there is nothing to catch on the ruins of the shipyards. Or does someone think that Nikolaev will start riveting dozens of destroyers from Monday?
    What do we want to build at Yuzhmash? Resume the production of "Satan"? For the production of Caliber and other things, new factories were built on the territory of Russia, if they are going to build them in Ukraine, the factories will have to be built there too.
    For all this, there are not enough qualified personnel left. Cryopreservation of specialists 30 years ago, no one bothered, they have long been gone. Some of them have been working in Russia for a long time, the rest is not clear where. In general, we get the same problems as in Russia, only in Ukraine things are even worse.
    To recreate and develop critical technologies abroad, all the more so the military-industrial complex is a mistake. We ourselves will restore the rake that has already been stepped on. This is the risk of technology leakage and the cultivation of competitors. Will we create difficulties ourselves again, which we will then heroically overcome? Reconstruction of any independent design bureaus or parent enterprises in critically important areas is not advisable.

    Independence will turn into a confederation, become part of the EAEU, the CSTO and the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, and Russian troops will be stationed on its territory on an indefinite basis, then the risk of a recurrence of the Maidan is minimal.
    Let's leave the military units near Kiev, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Lvov. To avoid. So the question is not a rake, but how exactly to solve the Ukrainian problem.

    Today the risk is minimal, tomorrow who knows. The Bolsheviks, creating Ukraine and other union republics, hardly planned what happened.
    Our troops already stood indefinitely in Warsaw and Berlin, and after 1991 in Tbilisi.

    Look at Germany and how the Americans are handling it.

    Do you propose to create a supranational body in the likeness of the European Commission, flood Ukraine with refugees from the Middle East, restrict access to cheap energy in order to finish off the industry, thereby destroying competitors?

    ps I do not know who and whom is going to feed, but the "elite" must be cleared. All sorts of Kolomoiskys and Akhmetovs have a lot of merit in the current situation. It was their conscious choice. They must lose everything in Ukraine and in Russia too.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 March 2022 15: 18
      0
      I walked around the garden here, collected pebbles, I don’t need them, I can return them.
      How much is actually produced in Ukraine, for example, "gas turbines and gearboxes"? (the same applies to the D-436 and AI-22 engines). What's left of production?
      How many ships of the "class, say, destroyer or cruiser" have been built, and how many corvettes, too, have been built at Ukrainian shipyards over the past 30 years?
      If something is left from the production of engines (do not know what has been going on there since February 24), then there is nothing to catch on the ruins of the shipyards. Or does someone think that Nikolaev will start riveting dozens of destroyers from Monday?

      When there is no demand, there is no production. When there is demand, production will resume.

      To recreate and develop critical technologies abroad, all the more so the military-industrial complex is a mistake. We ourselves will restore the rake that has already been stepped on. This is the risk of technology leakage and the cultivation of competitors. Will we create difficulties ourselves again, which we will then heroically overcome? Reconstruction of any independent design bureaus or parent enterprises in critically important areas is not advisable.

      And do not step on the old rake. All these enterprises are located on the territory of Novorossiya. Now there is a historical chance to bring her back to Russia in a few steps.
      Do you want a complete de-industrialization of Ukraine? It's easy. Only then will you whine yourself that you have to feed her at our expense.

      Today the risk is minimal, tomorrow who knows. The Bolsheviks, creating Ukraine and other union republics, hardly planned what happened.
      Our troops already stood indefinitely in Warsaw and Berlin, and after 1991 in Tbilisi.

      These are questions to the military-political leadership of the country and its ability or inability to avoid jumping on the rake.

      Do you propose to create a supranational body in the likeness of the European Commission, flood Ukraine with refugees from the Middle East, restrict access to cheap energy in order to finish off the industry, thereby destroying competitors?

      Demagoguery, juggling, arrogance. Corporate set. bully
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 16 March 2022 15: 34
        0
        When there is no demand, there is no production. When there is demand, production will resume.

        Will the market decide? smile Will it magically renew itself? Why doesn't this spell work for us? sad There is a demand, but you are not satisfied with the offer.

        And do not step on the old rake. All these enterprises are located on the territory of Novorossiya. Now there is a historical chance to bring her back to Russia in a few steps.
        Do you want a complete de-industrialization of Ukraine? It's easy. Only then will you whine yourself that you have to feed her at our expense.

        First of all, you don’t need to scatter rakes around the garden, let them be stored in a shed.
        You have seven Fridays a week, then Ukraine, then Novorossia, then you include it in Russia, leave it in the sphere of influence. Decide what you want to start with.
        Where did I talk about deindustrialization? Do you want to develop production and industry? Build cargo ships, not destroyers. Rocket industry? Flag in hand, let them master ultralight rockets, otherwise our hands don’t reach them. Aviation? Well, let them make components.
        Regarding feeding, in my opinion, you whine more.

        These are questions to the military-political leadership of the country and its ability or inability to avoid jumping on the rake.

        I repeat, do not scatter the rake.

        Demagoguery, juggling, arrogance. Corporate set.

        Do you think the United States is treated differently in Germany? Do you really think that the US is trying to develop Germany?
        1. -=Micah=- Offline -=Micah=-
          -=Micah=- (Michael) 17 March 2022 01: 31
          +1


          for reference so
  • Krasnoyarsk Offline Krasnoyarsk
    Krasnoyarsk (Oleg Vladimirovich) 16 March 2022 17: 24
    +1
    After our victory and bringing the pro-Russian government to power in Ukraine, immediately a total revision of all libraries, including school ones, all waste paper a la "great Ukrainians dug the Black Sea and fought with Russian barbarians" and collect the like in the boiler room! How much it is printed there, go on for a day it will be possible to generate electricity at TPPs with such literature! But seriously, then the revision of school programs, to educate children in the spirit of two fraternal peoples.
  • Panikovsky Offline Panikovsky
    Panikovsky (Mikhail Samuelevich Panikovsky) 16 March 2022 19: 06
    -1
    Comrade Marzhetsky, it's not for you to decide, our most verbose. Everything will be decided without your participation.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 17 March 2022 06: 38
      0
      I'm not your friend, thank God.
  • dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 16 March 2022 20: 28
    +1
    Will have to help. But to put them on the scruff of the neck is not necessary. To help carry out lustration, to exclude any possibility for the old bureaucracy to penetrate the new education. Here our special services must work day and night. Help hold FREE elections. Leave military bases on the territory of the new republics. Remember what happened after the withdrawal of our troops from Eastern Europe. Observe and, if necessary, speak your mind. Remain on the rights of the winner, after all, you need to bring the matter to surrender. No half measures.
  • Vladimir Petroff (Vladimir Petroff) 17 March 2022 09: 27
    -1
    That is not a frequent case when it is impossible not to agree with the opinion of the author.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 17 March 2022 16: 24
      +1
      Who are you to judge my author's opinion?
  • zloybond Offline zloybond
    zloybond (steppenwolf) 17 March 2022 13: 48
    -1
    - Drive into the level of Afghanistan.
    - Deprive statehood.
    -Full total control
    - Agricultural regions
    -Industrial areas
    No entry-exit points for ex-Nazis - only quarries.
    -To those who remembered that they are Russians - help
    - For those who want Geyropa - over the fence - go ahead
    Ukrainian region (district) and the Republic.
  • gorskova.ir Offline gorskova.ir
    gorskova.ir (Irina Gorskova) 17 March 2022 19: 52
    +1
    So why feed? Just organize work in agriculture, construction to replace the destroyed ones .... And the money needs to be taken from those who have led all these years in this country. And also to force those who have not yet completely drowned in bloody deeds to restore everything that they destroyed. Only for feeding. And no more. Under tight guard.
  • ZAlexanderZ Offline ZAlexanderZ
    ZAlexanderZ (Alexander Shchetinkin) 18 March 2022 07: 21
    0
    I support. And the loans taken from the West, let those who will definitely find refuge in this West pay. Poroshenko Zelensky Yatsenyuk and other scum.
  • the soul sings Offline the soul sings
    the soul sings (Bela) 18 March 2022 07: 24
    0
    No relations with Ukraine! Recognize the status of the "Donbass Republic" outside of Ukraine. Ukraine has long been bought and let the buyers keep this Nazi! The role of a slave is more suitable for her! It has already been recognized that the war of 41-45 was not brought to an end. Germany could have been destroyed as winners, and now it is controlled by the grandson of a Nazi who supplies Ukraine with weapons. The same with Ukraine - you need to bring the matter to the end!
  • passing by Offline passing by
    passing by (passing by) 18 March 2022 09: 44
    -1
    you have to look not at how the Americans deal with the Germans in Germany, but as with the Indians on the reservation ... Ukrainians do not reach the Germans with their minds. let them sell dumplings with cherries along the tracks and traditionally offer sex services. to whom the hot girls and to whom the "lads" will suit laughing
  • svetlanavradiy Offline svetlanavradiy
    svetlanavradiy (Svetlana Vradiy) 27 May 2022 07: 40
    0
    The author of the case says.