Former Ukraine is de facto turning into a new Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces

We continue our discussions about the possible near future of Ukraine. On the foreign portal RealClearDefence appeared publication, which discusses scenarios for a further operation in Nezalezhnaya and even calculates exactly how many troops the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will have to use for this. This is curious in that it roughly coincides with our own estimates dividing lines of Ukraine.

So let's take a quick look at the main points of this policy brief by Dr. Ben Connable, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and Associate Professor of Security at Georgetown University. He is clearly annoyed that the Russian troops did not limit themselves to a local counter-offensive against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass and, as part of a special operation for demilitarization and denazification, went on the offensive against Ukraine along the widest front. In his opinion, after the fall of Kyiv, the RF Ministry of Defense will have to solve four key tasks.

Task 1. "Secure the perimeter of the occupied territory"

Former Ukraine is de facto turning into a new Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces

According to the American expert, after the end of the special military operation, the hostilities will still not end. This will be facilitated by Western support for the Ukrainian "rebels" with weapons and money. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will face the task of ensuring the linear perimeter of the new border from the Belarusian border and the north of the Kiev region to Mariupol for 2950 kilometers. It should be noted that the territory of Ukraine liberated from the power of the Nazi regime on the map almost coincides with the one that we ourselves recently presented, speaking about Galicia and Volyn. True, Dr. Connable for some reason left Vinnitsa and part of the Zhytomyr and Khmelnitsky regions under the control of the West.

He calculated that for every 80 kilometers of the new frontier, about a battalion of 540 men would be needed. Including air support forces and the Coast Guard, an estimated 27300 troops would be needed to secure the perimeter of the occupied area, according to the Atlantic Council Senior Scientist.

Objective 2: "Ensure the security of key nodes in urban areas"

According to calculations, under the authority of Moscow there will be a territory with a population of 19 to 26 million people living in 22 large settlements. According to Mr. Connable's forecasts, the "rebels" will attack critical infrastructure facilities responsible for supplying water, electricity, sanitation, health care and food supply to the population. Allegedly for the purpose of "liberation". (Actually, for the purpose of terror. - Note by the author of the lines). The most painful will be the strikes against Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa.

Taking into account the fact that each of the 22 liberated large settlements has five critical infrastructure facilities, each of which will require an average of 140 to 145 military personnel to guard, then about 2 Russian military personnel will be needed to solve task number 25.

Task 3: "Ensure the safety of key roads and railways"

To supply our liberation army, it will be necessary to regularly deliver a large amount of food, fuel and lubricants, ammunition and medicines. The total length of Ukrainian railways and roads in this territory is 7255 kilometers, and there are also a large number of secondary roads.

An adjunct professor of security at Georgetown University is convinced that the "rebels" will regularly strike at transport communications, disrupting supplies and preventing the free movement of the Russian military. According to his estimates, 3 military personnel will have to be involved in solving task number 20 of the Russian Defense Ministry.

Objective 4: "Secure the population and carry out the fight against the insurgents"

And then the fun begins. Pay attention to the wording of Mr. Connable - "to secure the population." I wonder from whom? It turns out that from the "Ukrainian rebels" themselves, who, in fact, will terrorize them. Let us quote an American analyst:

In terms of territory and population, this would by far be the largest occupation undertaken by the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation since the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe in the post-World War II years. Most of the infrastructure necessary for the life support of the Ukrainian population in the occupied zone is currently being destroyed. Occupation officers will be responsible for supporting millions of people and rebuilding their cities, while fending off an active NATO-backed insurgency.

How nice. The United States and the NATO bloc once again show their terrorist essence, covered up with a fig leaf of the so-called "democracy" and "Western values". According to an adjunct professor of security at Georgetown University, to ensure the safety of the population in the territories liberated from the Nazi regime, Russia will have to use at least 94 military personnel, as well as actively interact with special local military-civilian forces and units to combat "rebels".

In total, the RF Ministry of Defense will allegedly have to involve 168 military personnel in the "occupation" of Ukraine, which will have to be rotated regularly. Thus, the United States hopes that a large part of the Ground Forces of the RF Armed Forces will get stuck there on a permanent basis. I would like to comment on this picture just as briefly.

On the one hand, Mr. Connable is, of course, right, and one cannot do without a conditional "occupation". More than two weeks of a special military operation showed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, and Ukrainian society itself have changed dramatically. That's it, the Rubicon has been crossed, and even after the official completion of the operation, Russian troops will not be able to go back. They will have to stay there forever, such is the objective reality, no matter what the diplomats say.

On the other hand, the scale of the problems is indeed very large, but not as apocalyptic as they try to portray. Yes, denazification is a task not even for years, but for the next few generations, and this process should be led by a special Supervisory Board, which has the broadest powers to control all aspects of education, culture, cinema, media activities and public life of the former Ukraine. There is no other way, or there will be profanity, dangerous with its results.

Ukraine itself must change, being divided into federal Little Russia and Novorossiya with subsequent entry into the EAEU, the CSTO and the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. To delegate some of the tasks described by Mr. Connable, for example, to protect the road network, infrastructure facilities and the fight against Ukrainian terrorists, local special services created from scratch and the People's Militia of Novorossia and Little Russia should be delegated. Russian troops will have to guard the outer perimeter - on the border with Galicia and Volhynia, or better, with Poland.

It is necessary to understand very clearly that the former Ukraine is now de facto turning into our new Western Military District. The Russian military and bases of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will have to settle there now and forever. To avoid.
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  1. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 12 March 2022 15: 04
    Former Ukraine. - A very strange conclusion. Do not forge pigs from beads. Beads - for jewelry
  2. boris epstein Offline boris epstein
    boris epstein (Boris) 12 March 2022 16: 37
    I think that there will be much fewer professionals required. Connable does not take into account several factors. Yes, Russia has a moratorium on the death penalty, but there is no moratorium in the LPR and DPR! The men from the Donbass have suffered so much that they do not need to be prompted. This time. According to international standards, foreign terrorists (mercenaries) are executed all over the world without trial or investigation. This is two. So let's see how many Ukrainian suicide bombers are not Arabs.
  3. wolf46 Offline wolf46
    wolf46 12 March 2022 16: 50
    It is necessary to understand very clearly that the former Ukraine is now de facto turning into our new Western Military District. The Russian military and bases of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will have to settle there now and forever.

    In the event of the final disintegration of Ukraine, the redeployment of some units and formations of the Western Military District and the Southern Military District suggests itself to the liberated territories. The experience of defense of the unrecognized republics will be adopted: Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
  4. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
    Mikhail L. 12 March 2022 17: 08
    ... Is there any hope for the "rebels"?!
    ...But where are they now?
    ... The Russian Federation must provide the inhabitants of Ukraine with a normal life and development, and then no one ... will take up arms!
    ...Vice versa!
  5. EpIvIaK Offline EpIvIaK
    EpIvIaK (Ian) 12 March 2022 17: 32
    And in this situation, won’t some forces from Crimea be released (at least partially)? Which must have been there all these years. Well, maybe it's trifles, but still.
    Well, thanks for the article.
  6. Yuri Palaznik Offline Yuri Palaznik
    Yuri Palaznik (Yuri Palaznik) 12 March 2022 17: 41
    There are enough people in Ukraine to protect everything. Not all of them are Bandera. The Nazis will turn into criminal outcasts.
  7. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 12 March 2022 18: 01
    Recently, Medvedev proposed lifting the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia. I think the proposal is timely, the only punishment for terrorists and their accomplices should be the gallows, with confiscation of property.
    1. Spasatel Offline Spasatel
      Spasatel 12 March 2022 19: 59
      He must have gotten excited! How could he himself not become a candidate for this execution ...
  8. Spasatel Offline Spasatel
    Spasatel 12 March 2022 19: 56
    And why not cut out to the third knee ALL Bandera scum in the WHOLE territory of Ukraine? Together with Lviv and Transcarpathia? From Moldova or from Poland you can’t climb into Russia ...
  9. NikolayN Offline NikolayN
    NikolayN (Nikolai) 12 March 2022 22: 24
    I think that these questions were thought out before the start of the WSO. Strange experts evaluate only one option. Their m.b. dozen. I do not think that we need to occupy Ukraine in principle. There is no need to divide it either: there are also numerous family ties that will push for discontent and unification. Denazification is the destruction of the Nazis and the new Constitution. Federalization or even confederation. The ban on the maintenance of the army with a control mechanism. The main thing, oddly enough, they will begin to live better in such conditions. They will still bow to us. More difficult with Europe. But a couple or a trio of military bases near Ukraine's western borders could force the West to seek acceptable relations with Russia for both sides. Now the main factor in our relations with the West should be the rapid growth of the well-being of Russians. The expected fall in Russia's GDP should not be an obstacle. Welfare is, first of all, housing, a sufficient amount of food, equipment, cars, travel and a developed service sector - this is not cloud money, we had it until they were arrested.
    1. Roma Phil Offline Roma Phil
      Roma Phil (Roma) 12 March 2022 23: 42
      100% agree with you.
      I read here the comments of Ura-patriots, hat throwers and I understand that they are driven by a desire for revenge, a desire for retribution for the split of Slavic society, a desire to punish for betrayal and exit from the seemingly indestructible Slavic family of Russians, Belarusians and Ukrainians .. BUT ..... ...
      Eastern, Western, Southern Slavs (more than a dozen nationalities), although they called themselves brothers, they never were.
      And now Ukraine. And why is she Russia? If you think purely from a pragmatic and economic point of view.
      If the status of neutrality is fixed in the Ukrainian constitution, then no threat will emanate from this country.
      And if Ukraine is divided into two parts hostile to each other, then this is a big headache for the entire Russian people. These are huge economic, military and political resources for Russia, because the pro-Western and pro-Russian parts of Ukraine will be in constant competition.
      Here we can recall the Berlin Wall, through which the East Germans moved to the western part of Berlin, at the risk of being shot down.
  10. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 12 March 2022 22: 45
    The level of this cited expert is extremely doubtful, since the entire history of the British during various occupations and even the Germans on the territory of the USSR, like many others, massively used for their security-occupation-order duties, so to speak, the local population, the vast majority who treated them if not extremely hostile, then at least not friendly.
    It is very strange that in Ukraine, for some reason, he considers all this in the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces. I am personally absolutely sure that the Ukrainians themselves will be able to cope with their own "occupation", maybe under some control for a start... There are definitely more than enough people who want to go there, no matter what.
  11. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 13 March 2022 00: 03
    The border, I believe, should be unequivocally with Poland. In this case, everything is simpler, although it will be tougher at first.
    The border guards on the existing borders are not a new border to equip in an open field, and it’s easier to deal with the rebels many times. Imagine to what heights the still stunted industry for the production of drones will rise))
  12. bsk_una Offline bsk_una
    bsk_una (Nick) 13 March 2022 06: 44
    ... to guard the outer perimeter - on the border with Galicia and Volhynia, or better, with Poland ...

    Yes, better with Poland!!!. And the closer Poland and Romania are, the further NATO will be with its problems!!!
  13. Vladimir Golubenko (Vladimir Golubenko) 13 March 2022 07: 44
    Appoint governor-generals everywhere. Only Russians! Keep the Governor General for at least thirty years, until a new generation grows up in their territories.
  14. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 13 March 2022 11: 56
    That Kannabel is a typical Anglo-Saxon with a primitive way of thinking. Everything will be different. At first, during the rehabilitation period, there will be military discipline and even curfews in some cases. Means of round-the-clock objective control will be installed, stimulation to denunciations of villains, and there will be a total check of the population for crimes committed .... there will be denazification in full growth for several decades. There will be indoctrination. And we need to control the border from the first day. Ukraine - as a resource and market is very important. This, with our black soil now, is our Russian food security, this is coking coal - energy security, this is an industry that needs to be modernized, and so on. And she, this new Ukraine, we need a friendly whole. That is why we started this work with you. Of course, now the KGB must constantly shepherd the situation. Migrants from Central Asia and the Middle East will rush there for permanent residence !! Here you will see! The climate is changing, there is almost a desert in the South, but you can live in Ukraine.
  15. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 13 March 2022 12: 02
    The main thing is that the remaining local population should understand without a doubt that we have come FOREVER.
  16. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 13 March 2022 16: 23
    On the foreign portal RealClearDefence, Crimea is marked on the map as part of Little Russia/Novorossia, but this is the territory of Russia...
  17. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 13 March 2022 21: 33
    There can be no other option. If only Russia leaves from there, all this Bandera ***** brethren, now swept away to Poland and further to Europe, will instantly rush there. Nationalism will bloom in a new double color, which the West will again begin to sponsor, supply with weapons and train against Russia.
    Ukraine will be completely cleared and the borders with Europe will be carefully controlled.
    Well, I repeat once again - as long as there are American bases in Europe, we will not be allowed to get along with Europe, do not go to a fortune teller.
    American bases in Europe, that's the root of all evil.
  18. kalita Offline kalita
    kalita (Alexander) 14 March 2022 09: 55
    There are people in Ukraine who just need help, and they themselves, with the support of Russia, will put things in order. There are no more Nazis and never will be.