Biden miscalculated the strength of the "most powerful army in Europe"


In one of his speeches, Biden said that pro-Western Ukraine does not suit Putin and, since the “Minsk format” has reached a dead end, he plans to solve the problem by force of arms. An analysis of the situation at that moment showed that this was the most unlikely scenario, and such statements were part of a large-scale hysterical information campaign. Conducting a military operation in Ukraine, in all objective parameters, contradicted the foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the interests of the business community, which has a certain influence on policies states. However, it turned out that Biden was right, Russia decided on a military operation to overthrow the Nazi Kiev regime. Let's figure out how it happened that for the first time in recent history, a US president gave a correct forecast and for the first time in recent history, Russia has shown offensiveness in foreign policy.


General historical context of the situation


The United States, having become the only superpower in the world after the unexpected collapse of the USSR, began to methodically strengthen its influence in Eastern Europe. In the 1990s, the US leadership believed in the "end of history" and in the eternal hegemony of the Pan-American order, but the introduction of the euro and the forced consolidation of European countries in the EU created a hypothetical threat to their dominance. Therefore, a bet was made on the Baltic states and the former countries of "people's democracy", in which the regimes most loyal to the United States were established, turning their states into essentially satellites of America.

By the beginning of the XNUMXst century, the strengthening of the Russian state and the Russian economics. The pro-Western course of the Russian Federation began to gradually tilt towards sovereignty. This gave rise to an aggressive US policy of exporting color revolutions to Eastern Europe in order to strengthen the chain of hostile states near and already immediately around the Russian borders. The first to fall was Yugoslavia, in which NATO was unleashed a criminal war, then Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia. In these countries, with the help of simple political technologies, nationalists loyal to the United States seized power, which was presented as promoting democracy. The most difficult and multifaceted situation has developed in Ukraine, the largest country of the former USSR after Russia, where the first Maidan suffered a temporary defeat due to discord among pro-American politicians. In 2014, against the background of the deepest political and economic crisis and the split of society, a new orange revolution was inspired, which ended with the overthrow of power and the establishment of one of the most reactionary, nationalist, anti-communist and anti-Russian regimes.

Compared to other color revolutions, two new key factors emerged.

Firstly, the Russian leadership considered that if they did nothing, the new Kyiv authorities would sooner or later deprive the Russian Federation of the Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea to please NATO. And this contradicted the foreign policy ambitions of the Russian leadership. Therefore, the historical misunderstanding of the peninsula being part of Ukraine was quickly and painlessly eliminated. Moreover, the objective basis for this - the will of the people of Crimea to reunite with Russia - was evident.

Secondly, it was in Ukraine that there were people who did not accept the new pro-American government with an outright fascist physiognomy and decided to defend their right to self-determination with arms in hand. A painful civil war began in the Donbass, during which two people's republics were created. But the Russian Federation was in no hurry to either recognize the LDNR or provide them with large-scale military assistance. The three "great powers" of Europe froze the civil war for eight years, creating favorable conditions for the punitive Nazi battalions to swagger, daily shooting the population of Donbass from mortars and artillery pieces and cutting off the heads of the captured defenders of Donbass.

The leadership of the Russian Federation, with persistence worthy of a better use, insisted on the return of the rebellious Donbass to Ukraine, apparently hoping that the Maidan authorities would evolve into some more acceptable, compromise forms. However, the situation developed in exactly the opposite way - the oligarch Poroshenko was replaced by the comedian Zelensky, and the reactionary nature of power increased sharply. In Kyiv, a regime of a thinly disguised terrorist dictatorship of nationalists tied to the CIA was established.

At the same time, US global hegemony was rapidly fading away. The campaign to overthrow Assad failed, the American military was gradually pushed out of the Middle East, Turkey raised its head, Europe played tricks, color scenarios increasingly failed, the trade war with China led to the expected results, and the Taliban created with the assistance of the CIA (banned in the Russian Federation) expelled USA out of Afghanistan and overthrew the pro-American regime in the country. Colors began to thicken over the American world order. Under these circumstances, the United States decided that the best way out would be to declare a new cold war to its main rival - China - under the sauce of the "communist threat", which was supposed to rally the allies and force neutral countries to choose which side they are on.

Russia has found itself at the center of a US strategic plan to encircle China. A policy of unprecedented pressure on the Russian Federation in all areas has begun. And the sanctions here played a secondary role. The United States organized powerful pressure on the Russian government from within, using the liberal opposition. They played several political combinations designed to undermine the situation - Belomaidan and the poisoning of Navalny. At the same time, the negotiation process was actively going on, the actual content of which could only be guessed at.

As a result, the goals set by the US leadership were not achieved, Russia did not sag under pressure. Moreover, having intercepted the negotiating initiative, Putin publicly put forward demands to the United States to withdraw from Eastern Europe.

At this stage, a provocation from the United States arose at the most painful point - in the Donbass. An intensive pumping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons, massive shelling of the LDNR and propaganda of the Russian threat began. The United States has chosen the tactic of confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, hoping to turn the Square into "Afghanistan for Russia." And along the way, hoping to redistribute the European gas market.

Based on the logic of the behavior of the Russian Federation, the conclusion was that Putin would try to evade a military conflict and stop provocations. This conclusion was also based on the economic interests of Russian business, which clearly did not want an open clash with the West.

However, the leadership of the Russian Federation chose a different scenario - the recognition of the LDNR and the conduct of a military operation to overthrow the pro-Western Kiev regime.

Fair or unfair military operation


Armed actions, as we know, are the continuation of politics by violent means. They are just, that is, defensive, and unjust, that is, predatory. If Biden and Western propaganda are to be believed, then the military operation of the Russian Federation is aggression and attack. However, the facts say otherwise.

The purpose of the military operation of the Russian Federation is to overthrow the fascist regime in Ukraine, so the method of conducting military operations was chosen quite delicate, sharply different from the customs of warfare. Unlike the criminal placement of weapons in residential areas, preventing the evacuation from cities and the distribution of small arms to gangs by the Kiev authorities. The goal of Zelensky and the United States is to arrange a bloodbath for the sake of PR.

On the one hand, the policy of the Russian Federation in this case outwardly copies the imperialist aggression of the United States, when a large and strong country establishes a political regime that suits itself, on the other hand, Russia's position that the military operation is defensive in nature, and the Kyiv regime is reactionary and anti-people , is quite justified. The final conclusion about the nature of the military operation should be made based on its results, but at the moment, the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine looks fair.

Moreover, if we proceed from the will of the Russian people, the people of Donbass and a significant part of the Ukrainian people, such a military operation is clearly eight years late!

Thus, Biden was right, but this rightness is akin to military cunning. He pushed Russia towards an armed solution to the problems created by the United States, counting on the strength of the "most powerful army in Europe", but he miscalculated in his assessments. It is a pity that the leadership of the Russian Federation has shown inconsistency in its position on the civil war in Ukraine and in its statements, since informationally Russia is presented as an aggressor.

The essence of Russia's military operation is that it crowns the end of the civil war in Ukraine. The terrible, reactionary, comical, absurdist period in the history of Ukraine under the rule of nationalists is coming to its logical conclusion. The United States establishes loyal regimes in countries bordering Russia with the sole purpose of starting wars. So it was with Georgia (2008), so it was with Armenia (2020), so it was with Ukraine.

Now the most important thing is that the punitive battalions be destroyed as decisively as possible, the Armed Forces of Ukraine defeated, and the leadership of Ukraine convicted of war crimes.

Russia's main danger does not come from a break with the West, as is often portrayed. The worst thing is that there are not only Ukrainian Nazis in the world, but also Polish ones who can try to seize Western Ukraine and the situation will quickly get out of control.

It should be noted that all military conflicts, civil wars and nationalist regimes in our region are a direct consequence of the self-destruction of the USSR. History takes cruel revenge on those who thoughtlessly broke and destroyed the social system that the Soviet people built with blood and sweat.
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  1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 1 March 2022 12: 18
    -8
    Biden is not capable of analyzing the state of the Armed Forces on his own. What was given, then he announced. For American-European audience.

    It should be noted that all military conflicts, civil wars and nationalist regimes in our region are a direct consequence of the self-destruction of the USSR. History takes cruel revenge on those who thoughtlessly broke and destroyed the social system that the Soviet people built with blood and sweat.

    There are quite a lot of destroyers of the USSR among Russian business captains, among owners, among business executives.
  2. AICO Online AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 1 March 2022 12: 31
    +3
    - Well, you would at least buy an account for him - an old grandfather, menopause, insanity, high cholesterol and all that stuff !!!
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 1 March 2022 12: 35
      -7
      It's not royal business to pick firewood. If only our analyzes, forecasts, conclusions were correct. Biden will sit overseas. And in Europe he has many vassals. Two fools fight, two crooks pray. And at this time the goat died. Khoja Nasreddin.
  3. Siegfried Online Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 1 March 2022 13: 32
    +5
    How successful the project "Ukraine" was for the United States is still too early to judge. Yes, they achieved their goals - the demonization of Russia, a blow to its economy, a blow to the EU economy, the enslavement of the EU, the Cold War (grandmothers, grandmothers, grandmothers). But! Those consequences of sanctions against Russia are a blow to the entire financial system in the world, this is a crisis situation. The elimination of Russia from the economic system is not a recovery of the world economy, but rather a severe crisis. The consequences of this will be felt in the West against the backdrop of the US role in this conflict. Who is to blame for this conflict? Russia? Yes, their narrative will be - Russia is creating a new empire. But before the start of the operation, the world watched half a year of diplomacy. And this diplomacy is imprinted in the brains of all people. Russia demanded security guarantees. She was sent. It is the long period of diplomacy and Russia's making NATO the main topic that will have its consequences in the assessments of what is happening in the West, especially when the economic consequences begin to affect everyone.

    For the EU, the situation is even worse. By demonizing Russia, the EU is losing the last opportunity to escape its unenviable fate. They hope for a protest from the Russians. But the circumstances are such that the truth is on the Russian side. Ukraine is actually a semi-Nazi, aggressive country preparing for war with Russia (Crimea) with the help of NATO. The position of the West is a complete lie, and most Russians understand this. Let's hope that Russian society will rally against the backdrop of events.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 1 March 2022 13: 44
      -5
      The Russians have a high pain threshold. This polished Europe without hot water and a huge supermarket, without vegetables and fruits will perish. Russians are accustomed to survive autonomously. Costs minimal. Even a return to the card distribution system will be received positively.
      No one in the US and the EU set the task of raising the level of consumption of the Ukrainian population.
  4. Boris tsikinovsky (Boris Tsikinovsky) 1 March 2022 15: 54
    +4
    The main danger is that we are largely dependent economically on many factors. And now it has come out brightly. Well temporarily shocked his airbag, but what next? We learned how to farce cool, buy it there - resell here, we are fluent in it. We produce little of our own high-quality goods, and the Western market is saturated with them. To produce such goods in Russia requires time and investments, which are always in short supply, and the time of their turnover can reach 3-5, and sometimes even more years. Here it is necessary for the state to support entrepreneurs. Support, but not all and with a special reservation. Remember our prime minister with the nickname Misha 5%, but this is still divine, then the dollar had a different weight. Therefore, the second main danger, and I would put it in the first place, is corruption, which stifles everything in the bud .. You don’t have to be great to understand if we don’t uproot this infection, we won’t see progress in economic development. There is a lot of talk at all levels about this, sometimes we are even shown pinpoint strikes. But this is not a struggle, but window dressing .. I will talk about what I know. One of my friends has a small business of his own, and it has been for many years. And every year, in order to stay afloat and get small amounts of work, you need not be stingy in gratitude, how much and when they tell you, and if you are given a loan for this business, you immediately need to unfasten it as a token of gratitude. This scheme works like clockwork at all levels.
  5. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 1 March 2022 16: 29
    -1
    Great article. God bless you!
  6. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 1 March 2022 16: 58
    -1
    Koltashov does not exclude that one of the indirect results of the special operation in Ukraine will be the launch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “Most likely, the Ukronazis will blow up during the retreat the gas pipeline that leads from Russia to Poland, and so, by the way, is already pretty worn out. So transit through it will be interrupted - we can already talk about this with a probability of 90%. They won’t just leave it, they won’t want to transfer it to the new legal government of Ukraine, which will be formed without rigged elections and without language segregation,” Koltashov is sure.
    According to the economist, without Ukrainian transit in Europe there will be an acute shortage of gas, and social tension will sharply increase. “And against this background, we will be quite able to achieve the launch of Nord Stream 2,” says Koltashov.
  7. Rico1977 Offline Rico1977
    Rico1977 (Alexander) 1 March 2022 18: 13
    +1
    You're not right. Putin understood all this in 2014 better than us. BUT then Russia did not have the strength to resist NATO, but it would have got in if we got into this war. That is why the Nazis did so cruelly and defiantly - they burned people alive, killed children, bombed residential areas - they lured us out. We had to break down, start a war in ruins, and then the Americans and NATO would finish us off at least by military means, at least by sanctions, at least by internal unrest. And most likely all together. We were much weaker then. But Putin has been preparing for war for all these 8 years, and the selfless death of people in the Donbass has given us the main thing - time. And we used it to the fullest. We now have an army that is stronger and more technically equipped than NATO, we have the latest superweapon and hypersonic weapons unattainable for NATO, we have a strong economy, huge reserves, food security and quite successful import substitution in the main industries. And the West, all these 100 years, has been weakening, degrading and engaging in foolishness. And now, when we are stronger than them, when they depend on our resources, when they have a lot of problems - Putin decided that it's time to embed. And it became easier to breathe. Finally.
  8. ont65 Offline ont65
    ont65 (Oleg) 2 March 2022 15: 09
    -1
    VV is not a member of the Central Committee of the CPSU at all. Why is this historical pathos and entry from afar? The vague liberal agenda is being removed, but only in part, and this does not mean that tomorrow we will literally wake up in the USSR. Dirty negotiations have already started. The government, despite the confiscation of part of the state assets by partners, denies the intention to "shoot itself in the foot." The declared planning range of 10 days in itself does not give grounds for far-reaching conclusions about anything. Today it can be argued that the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defeat the people's militia of the DPR and LPR was thwarted by a preemptive strike. For the first time since 2008, the General Staff did not wait for the enemy to start the events. Nobody knows what's next. The army, if it is not interfered with, will fulfill its task. Well, politicians can crap at any moment. It is out of place to recall liberal values, common Europe and other nonsense like guys 'let's live together', as our teacher, dear Boris Yeltsin, dreamed about. 2014 wasn't really that long ago.
  9. Vladimir Volkodav (Vladimir Volkodav) 6 March 2022 05: 16
    +1
    To the West
    Volkodav Vladimir Vladimirovich
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    At the request of V.V. Putin on the recognition of the DNR and LNR.

    Hysteria, anathema, boycott -
    To justice, to rebuff Nazism
    "Friends" have worked out a clear shortening.
    Globalists of all stripes are shouting.
    “Russia, obey! Don't you dare respect yourself!
    You have no right to defend the Russian world!
    We conquered you in the 90s, and you turn back time?
    Civilizers, would you shut up hailo!
    For a long time you have had a mug from hatred for the Russian people!
    Reason is alien to arguments, ridiculous nonsense
    And unanswered proposals - that's the West's answer
    To an invitation to good neighborliness.
    And slander lies discord.
    You are blessed with bohemian husk hackneyed judgments
    The absurdity of self-abasement.
    Ideological escort from **** her
    The fifth column echoes calls to spoil my homeland.

    The seeker will find, he stubbornly goes his way.
    He who does not hear in his own way will find - "... ... to her."
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
  10. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 11 March 2022 11: 05
    0
    As always, a deep and comprehensive analysis of the situation, a pleasure to read! The only aspect with which I will not agree is the ending about the USSR. As a person who lived during the decline of socialism, I dare to assert that the collapse of such socio-economic formations is inevitable due to the unnatural nature of socialism, which is proved by economists in modern theory. Now the Russian Federation is stable primarily due to market relations in society.