Western Analysts: What if Russia retaliates


In response to the Russian operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine, which began on February 24, Western countries began to impose extensive anti-Russian sanctions, including disconnecting a number of banks from SWIFT, a ban on the import of certain types of products, and other measures. But Russia has something to oppose in this regard to Western capitals, according to experts from the global research and advisory group in the field of energy, metals and mining from the United States Wood Mackenzie.


Europe and other regions of the world are major consumers of Russian energy resources. Thus, about 38 percent of gas supplies to the EU comes from Russia. According to experts, if the transportation of Russian gas is stopped, European countries will survive this winter, but will not be able to accumulate the necessary reserves for the next season. Incredible price rallies in the region's gas markets are not ruled out, which will affect inflation and the work of industrial enterprises.

Moscow also provides 30 percent of supplies of metallurgical (coking) coal and 60 percent of thermal coal to Europe. By and large, industry in the Old World is 14 percent dependent on coal, and stopping the shipment of fossil fuels from Russia will not hit Europeans as hard as a gas shortage. Nevertheless, the loss of gas energy at the expense of coal, apparently, will not be able to make up.

In addition, the disconnection of the Russian Federation from the SWIFT system could seriously disrupt the calculations of Western countries for Russian raw materials and affect the export of oil and other energy products from Russia. Such restrictions will be in effect until the start of the functioning of the alternative payment system.

At the same time, analysts do not predict the abandonment of Russian oil products - diesel fuel and gas oil, since they are actively sold to various regions of the world, including Europe, Asia and the United States.

Meanwhile, serious consequences for the global economics may result in restrictions on the supply of metallurgical products from Russia. And Russian petrochemical enterprises account for about 16 percent of the world production of such goods, and this share is especially large in the polyethylene chain.

Thus, experts believe, Russia is now much better prepared for Western sanctions than it was eight years ago. The current events deal the biggest blow to the Ukrainian economy. However, if the conflict affects the operation of the energy industry on a global scale, the consequences can be unpredictable.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 28 February 2022 11: 24
    -19
    Special operation in Ukraine? Sanctions are immediately imposed on Russia. And what do we learn? Aeroflot was banned from flying to England. And Aeroflot turns out to be the main sponsor of the Manchester United football club! And Aeroflot either asks or says, but then how are we going to sponsor a football club? But no way. You will also be penalized for violating contracts! The US froze the money of the Central Bank. And this money in the USA is 630 billion dollars!!! 3-4 annual budgets of Russia!!! The question is, if they were preparing for war, why was the money not withdrawn from the United States? The United States constantly said that sanctions would be introduced! I looked here. In the event of a large-scale war, Russia is capable of making 300 calibers per year, and the United States 15 thousand Tamahawks !! Our economy is not ready for a long war. Putin did not prepare it! And why? After all, back in 2007 he spoke in Munich. So he already had the information. So what? Then there was 2008 and already four Olympics without a flag and an anthem. How did Putin prepare the country for war? Where are our UAVs, loitering shells, AWACS aircraft? There is no electronics, mechanical engineering! Moreover, it turns out that the country's food security is not.
    For Putin's mediocrity, now the whole country will pay. Prices have already skyrocketed.
    Putin's cowardice in 2014 will now turn into a lot of blood and problems. What is being done now should have been done in 2014!!!! And now it's a shame to watch Putin begging for negotiations from Ukraine!
    1. Kristallovich Offline Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 28 February 2022 11: 47
      +12
      The US froze the money of the Central Bank. And this money in the USA is 630 billion dollars!!! 3-4 annual budgets of Russia!!!

      Stop spouting nonsense. Reserves have long been diversified. Most of them are not available to Western countries.
      1. LLIkunep Online LLIkunep
        LLIkunep (Alexey) 28 February 2022 12: 11
        +6
        The funny thing is that if Russia had done this in 2014, comrade Stalevar, who, it seems, is not our friend at all, would have written exactly the same thing with only one correction for numbers and dates.
        1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Alexander) 28 February 2022 12: 36
        0
        Yeah, judging by the collapse of the ruble, the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Nabiulina smoked with Chubais ... The best that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can do today is to resign.
    2. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 28 February 2022 12: 56
      +5
      The US froze the money of the Central Bank. And this money in the USA is 630 billion dollars!!! 3-4 annual budgets of Russia!!!

      Central Bank data:

      Over the period under review, the value of the Bank of Russia’s assets in foreign currencies and gold increased by USD 24,3 billion and amounted to $585,3 billion

      https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/39684/2022-01_res.pdf

      In the US, 6% is located, since the data for last year, in fact, is probably less.


      And yes, it is not possible to withdraw assets from Russia. It is not possible to sell, receive money and withdraw. In fact, they are frozen.

      The Bank of Russia will also introduce a temporary ban on brokers from executing transactions to sell securities on behalf of non-residents from February 28, 2022.

      https://cbr.ru/press/pr/?file=28022022_072328SUP_MEAS28022022_072619.htm

      I don't even see the point in discussing the rest of the writing.
      In general, you are tired of your tantrums.
    3. Batka Makhno Offline Batka Makhno
      Batka Makhno (Batka Makhno) 1 March 2022 02: 01
      +2
      You are the same steelmaker as "from Zelensky ballerina"
      2014 year
      - no national payment system
      - assets in Fed securities, a hell of a lot more
      - assets in yuan...
      - VISA and Mastercard dominant caps

      2021 year
      - there is a national payment system
      - there are World maps
      - US Treasury assets less than 1,3%
      - assets in yuan 16-20%
      - assets in dollars, euros are difficult to block (if they are blocked, you are welcome to fly with cash, gold to Sheremetyevo, and gas, oil postpaid)
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 28 February 2022 11: 33
    -2
    And there will be no retaliatory sanctions, large ones. Then the entire economy and industry will come to a standstill. We urgently need to change the economic policy of the country!
  3. Bulanov Online Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 28 February 2022 11: 50
    +6
    And why supply products to the West for dollars, if Russia is prohibited from making payments in dollars? It’s better to keep finished products at home and sell them to your enterprises at half price. Then greenhouse cucumbers in winter will fall in price by 2 times.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 28 February 2022 12: 03
    0
    Money does not smell.
    so what they need - gas, oil, nickel, aluminum, gold, rocket engines - went past the sanctions.
    Like titanium, aluminum, solarium, coal to Ukraine from the Russian Federation

    Banks went very selectively, people from the military-industrial complex, and technologies (such as Mistrals, Siemens generators, plastic for aircraft, and sights for tanks from France).

    And the Abramovichs, as they were the owners of Manchester, have remained. iPhones were brought to iPhone workers, and they are still being taken to the Russian Federation.
    1. Batka Makhno Offline Batka Makhno
      Batka Makhno (Batka Makhno) 1 March 2022 02: 04
      +1
      iPhones can be banned, their audience is too religious in worship of the golden calf.
  5. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 28 February 2022 12: 48
    +5
    The West has great hope for the impotence of the Kremlin, which never took action against the West, on the contrary, it always ensured an easy withdrawal of money, even stolen from the West, to the friends of our corrupt elite.
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 28 February 2022 12: 51
    +5
    Embargo on the supply of energy resources - oil, gas, electricity
    Embargo on the supply of forest and agricultural products
    Embargo on the transit of all types of transport through the territory of the Russian Federation
    Nationalization of all foreign financial and industrial assets in response to sanctions
    Entry ban to all representatives of foreign state entities that voted and supported sanctions
    Prohibition of activity on the territory of the Russian Federation of all foreign agents
  7. ont65 Offline ont65
    ont65 (Oleg) 28 February 2022 13: 12
    +4
    Freezing assets of the Central Bank, a ban on Russian securities is already an economic sabotage. If you do not stop deliveries to the EU of all supplies, all, and do not demand the lifting of previously imposed sanctions that were illegal from the point of view of international law, the unfreezing of assets and the lifting of other restrictions, the Russian Federation risks freezing the situation for decades, falling out of the game. Nuclear weapons will not help here. It's time to turn on your head and do it in a timely manner, and not later, sitting on your ears in the shit heaped on by Western ideologists.
  8. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 28 February 2022 13: 49
    +3
    The strike by sanctions and the strike by Ukraine must be considered as a whole. This is war. Since the enemy is spitting on legal norms, or using them to his advantage, it is time for us to also abandon their restraining framework. War is, in fact, declared on us. It's time to switch to the logic of military confrontation, in which all means are good if they lead to success.
    In light of this, in particular, we need to completely block the supply of weapons and manpower to Ukraine by military means.
    It was not enough to wait for a meeting with all this in battle
  9. Awaz Offline Awaz
    Awaz (Walery) 2 March 2022 20: 33
    0
    Russia cannot impose retaliatory sanctions, and therefore some people will be lawless. What to fill the budget with if you stop driving gas or coal to Europe?
    From the people, it’s already nefig to take. Russia can use for its own needs only thirty percent of the same gas that it produces. What to do with the rest if the pipe is buried?
    And so, so they made a chic "gift" for the people ... a little more and we will begin to experience it in our own skin ..
    My employer is in shock: all components have risen in price by at least 40 percent, even what is being done in Russia. We use foreign components from Italy. They have tried to replace before - everything is of very poor quality, even Polish. And even if something changes, it is necessary to rebuild those processes. This is also not an easy topic. The price of the product will also begin to grow because of this, but the margin will definitely fall, and so they have problems with raising salaries, but right now it makes no sense to even think about it ..
    And I don't think my employer is the only one like that in the country..