Everyone who listened appeal Russian President Vladimir Putin to his compatriots on the recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and watched live the signing of the relevant official documents by him, no doubt overwhelmed by the emotions inevitable with involvement in a historical moment. Nevertheless, now that the ink on presidential decrees has dried up, as they say, it's time to try to subject everything we have witnessed to a thoughtful and impartial analysis. Yes, in spite of everything, Russia has taken a step worthy of a great power. But this is the place to stop. And think about how appropriate in this case the word "contrary"?
After all, the paradox of the situation with the recognition of the DPR and LPR lies precisely in the fact that one has only to abandon the official and obviously, for the most part, insincere rhetoric of almost all the speakers who have spoken and are speaking on this topic, as you come to a very unexpected conclusion. What happened late in the evening of February 21, to one degree or another, suits absolutely all parties not only to the Ukrainian crisis, but also to the global confrontation that is taking place in the world today at much higher levels. Before us is a very elegant and extremely practical completion of the next round of geopolitical "sparring", allowing the opponents to take a certain pause without "losing face", regroup their forces and continue the fight. Let's try to figure out what exactly gives grounds to think so.
At the time of writing this article, there was no official reaction from Kiev to what happened - despite the meeting of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, which lasted more than one hour, devoted, of course, to the issue of recognizing the DPR and LPR. It is only known that Vladimir Zelensky discussed the situation with Boris Johnson, intends to "grind" it with Erdogan, and is also preparing an "appeal to the nation." There is no doubt - as empty and meaningless as "felt" and pathos. Words about the need to “rally”, “resist”, about “the unbreakable support of the allies” and “the resilience of the Ukrainian nation” will again be carried around. Blah blah blah blah. In fact, on Bankovaya, for sure, the most unbridled fun reigns. Well, of course - after all, there is no more “coercion to Minsk”, you can not be afraid! There is no need to dodge and lie recklessly about an ardent desire and complete readiness to “follow the path of a peaceful settlement”, every real step along which threatened the clown president with accusations of the most evil evil. And extremely unpleasant consequences, up to the next "Maidan" performed by "patriots" eager to return to the satisfying feeders.
All the actions of the Ukrainian side, taken by it in recent days, testify to one thing: not only did Kiev not try to at least create the appearance of actions aimed at preventing Moscow from recognizing the LDNR. There (and, above all, on the line of contact), everything was done to ensure that this recognition was inevitable, guaranteed and as soon as possible. Shelling, terrorist attacks, attempts to attack the positions of the Republicans - everything was on the rise.
The apotheosis of this madness was the penetration of the Ukrainian DRG into the territory of the Rostov region. But then our patience ran out, and the unfortunate saboteurs were crushed together with the “armor” that came to “pull” them out of the raid. If the “nezalezhnaya” really were going to continue negotiations in the “Normandy format” and implement “Minsk”, then right now they would be sitting quieter than water and lower than grass. If there were intentions to resolve the issue “by force”, they would have rushed to the attack as soon as this morning it became extremely clear that there would be recognition. However, as far as is known, after the broadcast of the ceremony of signing presidential decrees and relevant agreements, all shelling subsided immediately. Judging by this, the goal has been achieved - Kiev got what it wanted. What will happen next? Yes, the same as with the Crimea - the creation of "platforms" and "forums", the continuous need of Zelensky and others in the UN, the OSCE and in general in all places where they will let them in.
Rantings about “the Ukrainian flag that will appear over Donetsk, Lugansk and Sevastopol” and other non-science fiction. No one will dare to attack the Russian army, remembering the sad example of Saakashvili. At least not in the foreseeable future. You can continue to beg for loans from the West, and plunder them, rob what is still left in your own country. They will do harm to both Donbass and Russia with even greater frenzy - but in a petty, surreptitious way, trying not to run into a serious one. At the same time, the panic with the “invasion” may calm down and it will be possible to somehow slow down the fall economics.
It would seem that no one was at all interested in Vladimir Putin's decision. Believe me, it just seems so. I would not be at all surprised if someday it is revealed that it was agreed upon by the presidents either in the course of personal meetings or during one of the confidential telephone conversations. Judge for yourself - Washington (and not only him) needs to somehow get out of a completely idiotic situation with an "invasion" that did not happen. Recognize yourself as fools and liars? Ruled out. To provoke a large-scale bloodshed in the Donbass, to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to go on the offensive? It is not a fact that this will work out at all, and in the end result you can lose more than win. In this case, the White House could stop Shoigu and Putin in no way by military force, but only by threats of sanctions.
Knowing full well that this will not work with a probability of 99.9%. Turning on something quite furious like a complete embargo on our energy carriers is fraught with a global economic Apocalypse, and even a complete collapse of the “North Atlantic unity”. Well, the same Germans will not bend over from the cold for the sake of the "ideals of democracy" - at least you cry. And what do we have in a fairly realistic perspective? The Russian army, having “taken the crackdown” in the Donbass and crushed the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there, is advancing to Kiev without any problems, and even much further, thereby putting a fat cross on the “Ukraine project” without any hope of its revival. And this is not even Afghanistan 2.0, but something much worse. For - like in Europe. After such a fiasco, NATO may not only fail the brain, but also all other vital organs - up to a complete death.
But what do we have in the current "schedule"? Yes, exactly what the US needed! The “invasion” seems to have happened, but it will be limited strictly to the borders of the LDNR. The “key” to a full understanding of the intricacies of the moment, in my opinion, can be Biden’s “reservation” about the “minor intrusion”, which only the lazy one did not blame him for. But what if this was not a reservation at all, but simply inappropriately uttered words related to the true, real plan of action? I repeat in advance, "spoken" with Moscow - at least as one of the options. Then everything clearly falls into place and the puzzle is formed.
Now Washington, having received a weighty and quite real reason to shout enough about the "assault on the territorial integrity" of the poor "nezalezhnaya" and the like, will introduce some kind of "insignificant sanctions." At the time, again, of writing this article, it was about a ban on trade with the LNR-DNR and “investment” in their economy - but not about disconnecting from SWIFT or refusing to launch Nord Stream 2. Europe, supporting the same verbiage (in any case, Josep Borel, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel have already noted in this field), will slowly exhale with relief, and at the same time will rejoice that there is no longer any need to arrange stupid ritual dances in the Normandy format "- everything was decided by itself. Our confrontation with the "collective West" will by no means end there, but then the conversation will be about completely different things.
A number of factors testify to the fact that the corresponding decision was made in the Kremlin not yesterday, not the day before yesterday, and not even “under the Christmas tree” at the end of 2021. First of all, last summer, representatives of domestic business (and obviously not without state support) began to invest heavily in the economy of Donbass, its restoration and development. Well, you don’t admit that then there was preparation to present truly royal gifts to Akhmetov, Zelensky and others like them? "Minsk agreements"? Come on, you already, the right word, you can no longer break the comedy. The fact that they are impossible in principle, it was clear from the outset. Well, what about the rhetoric of the Kremlin, our Foreign Ministry, and so on ... What can you do - the big policy their laws. Yes, the Kremlin is well aware of the fact that by recognizing the Republics of Donbass, the country has acquired significant additional problems for itself, shouldered a new burden of colossal responsibility, and doomed itself to new costs.
However, this is the way of a great power. In a different way, only the status of a “gas station country” is acquired, into which the West is so eager to drive us. The third, excuse me, is not given - if we discard the senseless nonsense of the gentlemen of the liberals. So there is no doubt that the agreements with Donetsk and Lugansk were not drawn up in a hurry today, but lay in the right safe, waiting in the wings. From the moment Moscow loudly declared its claims to the US and NATO regarding security guarantees, it became clear that the countdown to its onset went on for days and hours. The West chose a tactic that was easy enough to predict – it tried to transfer the entire discourse to the plane of the “Ukrainian issue”, seeing it as the most unfavorable position for Russia. Hence the whole psychosis with the "invasion"
The danger was that, at a certain level of escalation, the situation could indeed spiral out of control. Then we would have to do exactly what we do now - to recognize the Republic, to send in troops. But this would have been done already in an emergency order, with inevitable failures and errors in this case. Yes, and under fire - in the literal and figurative sense. The West's propaganda-stupefying machine would have worked at full speed and accusations of the most horrific sins would have rained down on our country - from "chemical attacks" to "ethnic cleansing". Now the battle for Donbass has been won almost without a fight. In any case, significant casualties and losses were avoided. The issue with Ukraine, which has turned into a nationalist and neo-Nazi cesspool, controlled from across the ocean, is by no means closed. Anyone who has listened attentively to the president's remarkable address on the recognition of the LDNR is sure to have formed just such an opinion. On the contrary, for the Kiev authorities, which for some time now Vladimir Vladimirovich has not called anything other than a “regime”, and even one that came to power as a result of a “bloody coup”, real troubles are just beginning.
Now they don’t realize it there yet, but they realize it - they won’t be happy. However, further confrontation will take place already in the economic and foreign policy plane, without the danger of an instant escalation to the stage of a full-scale war. With the highest degree of probability, it can be assumed that as soon as Russian troops officially stationed there appear on the demarcation line, there will be no trace of the “offensive impulse” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In any case, at the moment there are reports of a complete ceasefire on their part.
And this is the most important thing. Four million people can breathe freely and look at the night sky without fear. Yes, the status of “semi-recognized” is also not sugar, but the period of “timelessness” and existence in the “gray zone” for the residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, who have earned their right to freedom and independence through years of selfless and fearless struggle, has finally ended. It is with this that we congratulate them today with all our hearts!