Russia has no more than 5 years left to solve the "Ukrainian problem"


Europe is clearly preparing for a war in Ukraine. Since the “Russian invasion” may entail sanctions in the form of stopping purchases of “blue fuel” from Gazprom, the United States in January 2022 collected all possible excess LNG from the pine forest so that the Old World could survive this heating season. Right before our eyes, a new global energy balance system is beginning to take shape.


Until recently, the European gas market was separate, and the Southeast Asian market was separate. The coronavirus pandemic, and then the situation around Ukraine, tied them into a single tight knot, which in the medium term is fraught with serious shocks.

Previously, LNG was the main pillar and hope for Southeast Asia with its huge population, rapidly growing the economy and the lack of a developed gas transportation infrastructure. In Europe, on the contrary, everything has been in perfect order with the main pipelines since Soviet times. The so-called "shale revolution" freed up large surpluses of gas in the United States, which became possible to export. Tightened up after President Putin's memorable Munich speech and taught by the bitter experience of the two "gas wars" between Russia and Ukraine, the Europeans have modernized their gas transportation infrastructure and built a network of LNG receiving terminals on the coast. However, they were not in real demand, standing idle only partially loaded. It was easier and more profitable to buy Russian pipeline gas, and the Asian market was much more interesting for LNG exporters themselves.

Everything changed after the US began to politicize the gas issue. Having taken control of Ukraine with its GTS after the Maidan in 2014, the Americans began to put pressure on Gazprom in order to take away part of its market share from it in favor of its LNG. The “oil war” between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the coronavirus pandemic, the decline in investment in the extraction of traditional energy resources against the backdrop of the “green agenda”, and then the largely artificially created energy crisis in Europe made significant adjustments to these plans.

Thus, the cost of gas in the EU first broke through the mark of 1000 dollars per 1 cubic meters, and then at the moment - an unheard-of 2200 dollars. It is currently hovering around $1. But in Asia, the prices for "blue fuel" are even higher, and therefore LNG tankers, including American ones, stubbornly went there. But in January 2022, the United States was able to “forcefully” pull the maximum possible number of tankers into the Old World.

Apparently, at an urgent request from Washington, Tokyo sent several LNG tankers to the EU. Here is how the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of the country Koichi Hagiuda commented on this event:

Several tankers carrying LNG, which Japanese companies can sell as they wish, are already on their way to Europe to reach their destination in February.

The leading economic newspaper of the Land of the Rising Sun, Nikkei, without further equivocals, directly reported that this was due to the possibility of starting hostilities in Ukraine. As you know, the EU is considering various options for retaliatory sanctions, including a partial or complete waiver of Russian gas purchases.

Interestingly, in fact, China played on the side of the United States and Ukraine, which also sent tankers with “excess” LNG to Europe, which China bought for future use. Nothing personal, just business. Although it is strange to get rid of "excess gas" when Beijing itself has a serious conflict with Washington. Agreement?

So what do we have. The energy crisis is actively developing all over the world. The war in Ukraine may lead to a fundamental refusal of the EU to purchase Russian gas, which will lead to an even greater shortage of energy resources in Europe. Prices there will jump to $2000 or even $3000 per 1 cubic meters, which will be a severe blow to industry and the economy as a whole. Tankers with LNG will again go to the Old World in a row, this time voluntarily, without "pointers" from Washington.

But then the energy crisis will begin in Southeast Asia. The local "tigers" will either have to increase the selling price of their products, or curtail the volume of industrial production. In the first case, this will require buying LNG even more expensive than in Europe. This de facto means the Euro-Asian "gas war". It is clear that this is not beneficial to anyone, with the exception, perhaps, of LNG exporters. All global players have an interest in avoiding such extreme scenarios.

The root of the problem lies in the lack of free volumes of gas. So far, there is not enough LNG to meet the needs of both the European Union and Southeast Asia at the same time. According to some estimates, it may take 5 to 10 years for a corresponding increase in LNG production.

In other words, Russia realistically has 5 years when it can still solve the "Ukrainian problem" without the proper level of opposition from the NATO bloc. After this period, everything will change for the worse for our country.
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  1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 February 2022 13: 36
    0
    5 whole years is good.
    But, here we don’t know if they really exist - this is bad
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 18 February 2022 13: 41
    +3
    In other words, Russia realistically has 5 years when it can still solve the "Ukrainian problem" without the proper level of opposition from the NATO bloc. After this period, everything will change for the worse for our country.

    We don't have five years. Not even five months.
    If in the near future (let there be five weeks) the Banderlog state does not disappear, then in five or six years the Russian Federation will not be.
    And the loss of population will be thousands of times greater than expected in the current war with Kiev.
    1. Marciz Offline Marciz
      Marciz (Stas) 18 February 2022 14: 06
      0
      Stupid and leads the Russian Federation to collapse only with a multi-way move so that the people do not notice, he has a lot of plans and all of them are unprofitable for the Russian Federation !!
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 18 February 2022 13: 57
    +2
    Right before our eyes, a new global energy balance system is beginning to take shape.

    And at what prices will these energy carriers be? And behind them are industrial and food products? The EU will have no one to sell products that have risen in price, overstocking and unemployment will begin. In China, it will be cheaper anyway. That is why China sent expensive gas to the EU to choke on prices there. It will be like Ukraine, which was quite attractive as a buyer in 1991 and which is insolvent now. With such expensive energy, kirdyk for EU enterprises will come quickly!
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 18 February 2022 14: 06
    +4
    The root of the problem lies in the lack of free volumes of gas.

    More precisely, in the absence of these volumes in the European market.

    Moscow. December 26th. INTERFAX.RU - Some buyers of Russian gas (in particular, in Germany and France) have already chosen the annual contractual volume by now and are not making new applications for gas supplies - this is due to the reduction in Gazprom's reservations for the capacities of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, said the official representative of "Gazprom" Sergei Kupriyanov

    Russia can increase gas supplies to Europe, but this requires long-term contracts, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
    He called the reason for the crisis the "short-sighted policy of the European Union", which in recent years has refused long-term contracts.

    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/15/01/2022/61e2992c9a7947ef3748ee89

    It turns out that there is physically gas, there is no "consensus" and political will to achieve it.
    Gazprom needs a stable sales market for investment planning, cunning Europeans want to invest huge funds in production, and then, due to the lack of an alternative gas sales market, an oversupply of gas was created on the spot, and it was sold almost at cost.
    Well, of course, there is an overseas arrogant red muzzle that spoils everyone and pushes its uncompetitive at relatively low prices, and therefore stale goods.

    So far, there is not enough LNG to meet the needs of both the European Union and Southeast Asia at the same time. According to some estimates, it may take 5 to 10 years for a corresponding increase in LNG production.

    The point is not only the lack of LNG, there is nothing to transport such volumes. Try to calculate how many gas carriers will be needed to replace Gazprom's pipelines.

    “The capacity of one LNG tanker is on average up to 200 cubic meters. 34 tankers is approximately 6-7 million cubic meters (if converted from liquid to gaseous state, about 3-4 billion cubic meters

    (https://www.gazeta.ru/)

    And they have to be built somewhere. Shipbuilding leaders China, Japan, South Korea. The United States, by the way, does not build them at all. If Europe and the US decide to establish production at home, it will be prohibitively expensive, or they will have to bow to their Chinese comrades. In general, an unlikely development of events.

    It turns out the conclusion is controversial, the argumentation is doubtful. It is very similar to hysterics, constantly predicting for Russia the next disasters, failures, failures.
    For those who want to immediately resolve the Ukrainian issue, I actually have one question

    1. alexxnumx Offline alexxnumx
      alexxnumx (Alexander) 20 February 2022 10: 27
      -1
      Your post is better and smarter than the article under which it is written!
  5. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 18 February 2022 14: 13
    +1
    time has already been lost, the problem had to be solved in 2014, now they got a shame - they didn’t protect the Russians in the Donbass, the outskirts are completely polluted by the Galician scum, the Anglo-Saxons realized that in the Kremlin they were only able to meaningfully remain silent, all these ultimatums were no longer interesting to them and, judging by they don’t really believe the answer, but in any case, the war is ahead
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 18 February 2022 15: 40
      -4
      time has already been lost, the problem should have been solved in 2014

      Yes. It was necessary to start maneuvering before 2014.
  6. Alexander K_2 Offline Alexander K_2
    Alexander K_2 (Alexander K) 18 February 2022 14: 37
    -1
    Great country - Russia! What happened to it in recent years, the whole industry is oil and gas production, rocking minerals and withdrawing capital to "enemies"! collective West"? Wake up, the whole trouble of Russia is the people who run the country, those who need war and external "enemies" for their existence!
  7. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 18 February 2022 15: 09
    -2
    Quote: rotkiv04
    time has already been lost, the problem had to be solved in 2014, now they got a shame - they didn’t protect the Russians in the Donbass, the outskirts are completely polluted by the Galician scum, the Anglo-Saxons realized that in the Kremlin they were only able to meaningfully remain silent, all these ultimatums were no longer interesting to them and, judging by they don’t really believe the answer, but in any case, the war is ahead

    Yes.
  8. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 18 February 2022 15: 11
    +3
    Quote: rotkiv04
    time is already lost

    Нет!
    1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 18 February 2022 17: 42
      -2
      Your words are in someone's ears, I would like it to be so
  9. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 18 February 2022 15: 38
    -3
    You have to write such nonsense. Russia does not need to solve the problem of Ukraine, or rather, what remains of it, Russia does not need at all. Let Europe feed them or take a break of their own accord. No NATO in five years will be scary at all. We must now drive their bases out of Poland and Romania, threatening them with a preemptive strike. And they will run away.
  10. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 18 February 2022 15: 39
    -6
    Аналитики и прогнозисты, финансисты и юристы Газпрома профукали сланцевую реводюцию, не оценили ее ход, и последствия для планируемых трубоприводов. Переоценили могущество иностранных соучредителей . Отдельная благодарность аналитикам МИД России и руководству СВР. Основные вопросы решаются прямо сейчас, а не через пяток лет. Даже если противоборствующие Газпрому киевские улетят на Луну, закупки российского газа заморозят. Или будут закупать на условиях в сильно в пользу покупателей.
  11. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 18 February 2022 16: 00
    +1
    Quote: kriten
    You have to write such nonsense. Russia does not need to solve the problem of Ukraine, or rather, what remains of it, Russia does not need at all. Let Europe feed them or take a break of their own accord. No NATO in five years will be scary at all. We must now drive their bases out of Poland and Romania, threatening them with a preemptive strike. And they will run away.

    As they say; "Even their own Ukraine interferes with some dancers" ..... Let her be fed! Let Kazakhstan also be "fed" .... which has already become the main supplier of uranium to the United States. Let Georgia be "fed", with its manganese Chiatura plant, owned on the shares of the USA and Britain ....
    Let's threaten them all with a "preemptive strike" on our own brains....we are good at that.
  12. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 February 2022 16: 23
    -3
    Yes, no one posts something "I signed up as a volunteer"
    and the rest is written weekly.

    If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs failed everything, if Lavrov beat everyone .....
  13. opportunist Offline opportunist
    opportunist (dim) 18 February 2022 16: 48
    +2
    Putin made a huge strategic mistake in 2014. I am very afraid that we will have huge problems in the future
    1. mister-red Offline mister-red
      mister-red 18 February 2022 21: 37
      +2
      Quote: opportunist
      Putin made a huge strategic mistake in 2014. I am very afraid that we will have huge problems in the future

      They didn’t specify any that Crimea took or that Donbass didn’t take either.
      Neither the first nor the second are wrong. Donbass is now mainly for Russia, but then there was a question. And there were arguments about Crimea, but so-so about Donbass.
  14. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 February 2022 07: 34
    -2
    Quote: mister-red
    They didn’t specify any that Crimea took or that Donbass didn’t take either.
    Neither the first nor the second are wrong. Donbass is now mainly for Russia, but then there was a question. And there were arguments about Crimea, but so-so about Donbass.

    That, having taken the Crimea, suspended the Donbass halfway and left the rest of Ukraine to the enemies.
    Everything else is demagoguery invented by propagandists to justify this wrong (to put it mildly) decision.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 19 February 2022 08: 39
      -1
      I agree. A mistake has been made.
      I do not agree that this error can no longer be corrected.
      Yes, more blood, more economic costs.
      But it needs to be corrected. Now. Then it will be too late. It's still NOT too late.
    2. opportunist Offline opportunist
      opportunist (dim) 19 February 2022 15: 39
      -2
      Putin made a mistake at the age of 14 that he did not liberate the east of Ukraine.
      1. alexxnumx Offline alexxnumx
        alexxnumx (Alexander) 20 February 2022 10: 50
        -1
        I hope that we won’t get there now to please the propogandons from the USA
  15. AND Offline AND
    AND 19 February 2022 21: 51
    -2
    Quote: opportunist
    Putin made a mistake at the age of 14 that he did not liberate the east of Ukraine.

    It’s very good to be clever, of course, only in 2014 there were enough questions for Russia and the Russian economy with Crimea. In 2013-14, the Russian army only just started to receive new weapons. Putin made the only right decision, leaving behind the LPR and the DPR, to further continue his game. (The big game began after the GDP broke the anaconda loop in Syria, the next one was supposed to be Iran and the loop slammed .1). Time was needed for the Russian Federation to compensate for the heavy losses in the Crimea, including the bridge, losses in the Donbass and its own army. 2). At that time, for the Russian Federation, all of Ukraine was a trap at the level of Afghanistan, and in economic terms, Ukraine was a corrupt bottomless swamp. 3). The Russian Federation at that time had just begun to rearm and gain strength, Europe and especially America understood this and brazenly squeezed out Ukraine without Crimea and Donbas, of course. Someone thought that Putin would go further? Understanding the situation, cold calculation and the mind of the KGBist president made it possible not to get into this Euro-American trap. Now in the Russian Federation the troops are fully prepared to solve all pressing issues, the levers of gas and oil are at hand, winter. Everything is according to feng shui, shah and m ..... t.
    1. alexxnumx Offline alexxnumx
      alexxnumx (Alexander) 20 February 2022 10: 49
      -1
      Unfortunately, people have a lot of hatred moods like that - we will defeat everyone.
      Only a few think strategically - what will we get as a result?
    2. opportunist Offline opportunist
      opportunist (dim) 21 February 2022 02: 44
      -1
      In 2014, after the victory in Debaltseve, the militants could easily enter both Mariupol and Odessa, Putin went and signed the Minsk agreements. Putin betrayed the struggle of Russian patriots and anti-imperialists in eastern Ukraine. Kremlin oligarchs pressured Putin not to go further, not to face more sanctions from his Western partners. This is the whole story of scammers. Putin and Yeltsin the pro-Western capitalist lobby that has ruled us since the 2014s must be destroyed