Will Kiev take its last chance to abandon NATO?

“Clever thoughts often pursued her, but she always turned out to be faster ...” - this is about Ukraine, gentlemen. It's about her. What kind of reaction did the unexpectedly sensible words of Vadym Prystaiko, the ambassador of the “independent” in London, evoke that the rejection of the unattainable and completely unnecessary membership in the North Atlantic Alliance could still become relevant on the foreign policy agenda of Kiev? An unequivocal sigh of relief, both in the East and (perhaps even to a much greater extent) in the West. However, their echo on the radio had not yet had time to dissipate, as representatives of his own leadership and other "officials" of Ukraine attacked the diplomat.

Disavow this assumption, completely dismiss even the very possibility that Kiev will refuse manifestations of stupid stubbornness, which cannot lead the whole country and its people anywhere but to the edge of the abyss. This is what, at first glance, the speakers and leaders of the “nezalezhnaya” aspired to, diligently and diligently “correcting the mistake” made by Prystaiko. On the other hand, was it really a reservation? Personal opinion, accidentally escaped during the interview and expressed privately? This version, despite the official reaction of Kiev, raises great doubts. And all because it is Ukraine's refusal from NATO membership that is perhaps the last chance for it to survive in those millstones, where it has landed at the mercy of its "allies" from the West.

Everyone will be able to retreat without "losing face"

Moreover, in the event of a voluntary refusal of the "nezalezhnaya" from claims to the status of a full-fledged member of the Alliance, all its participants will have the opportunity to get out of the current acute crisis, which directly threatens to "slide" into a global armed conflict. Moscow has repeatedly stated that the most important "red line" in its security requirements is Ukraine's non-bloc status. At the same time, Vladimir Putin, at meetings with various representatives of the countries of the “collective West”, over and over again, has been trying to convey to them an extremely simple and completely unambiguous algorithm, according to which a different path is mortally dangerous for Russia.

Kiev's territorial claims regarding Crimea leave no doubt that by joining NATO and relying on the notorious "5th article" of the charter of this organization, Ukraine will most likely embark on an armed adventure to "return" the peninsula. The result is the inevitable Third World War, which no one needs, because there will definitely be no winners in it. During the working meeting of the President of Russia with Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu, this topic was raised again. The top leaders of the country once again expressed their utmost concern that there is no progress in this direction, as such. And then suddenly the words of the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK are heard, who, when asked by the host of the local BBC Radio 5 Live radio station about whether the question of abandoning the course towards the Alliance can be considered in principle, answered positively. “Yes, we could make serious concessions for the sake of peace in Europe and show flexibility,” the diplomat said something like this.

Tellingly, Prystaiko’s “anti-NATO” theses were suddenly ardently approved by the Deputy Minister of Defense of the very state that today is going out of its way to militarize Ukraine as much as possible and inflate hysteria around it. That is, Great Britain. James Hippie, on the air of a completely different media outlet - the Sky News channel, said that if "Ukraine itself decides not to join NATO, then we will support it." Like, here it’s a personal matter for everyone: if you want, join, if you don’t want, go past. Mr. Hippie added a couple of the most perfect platitudes, such as the fact that "the decision remains with the Ukrainian government" and it "should in no way be detrimental to the sovereignty of the country." However, at the same time, he, of course, voiced the obvious things. Understandable, as they say, to a hedgehog, and not just to the "second person" of such a serious office as the Ministry of Defense.

Who will drag the “nezalezhnaya” into the Alliance by force, if she is against it ?! Obviously, behind the repetition of common truths, a high-ranking official simply tried to hide his own enthusiasm and joy from such a turn of events. If Kiev independently renounces "North Atlantic aspirations", then it is not Washington, Brussels and London that "cave in" under Moscow's explicit ultimatum, but "it turned out that way." You can reduce the intensity of Russophobic passions and get down to pressing business - for example, solving the most acute social problems.economic problems that are rolling over Foggy Albion today like tsunami waves. After all, you can have a normal conversation with the Russians by sending to Moscow not the crazy Trass, but someone who knows geography and knows how to count money. Suddenly they will help out with gas and oil? Most importantly, for our country, such an outcome of a very dramatic "first round" of confrontation with the West seems quite acceptable.

"Mistake of the resident" or "trial balloon" of Kiev?

In the event that Kiev takes a step of goodwill of this magnitude, it will be possible to do something significant in response. For example, to carry out a demonstrative "withdrawal of troops" away from the Western borders. Return to the games called "Minsk Process" and "Normandy format", while "pausing" (for some time) the issue of official recognition of the DPR and LPR. It is clear that "Minsk" is impossible in principle - for Ukraine in its current form and condition. Nevertheless, the very real danger of war could thus be eliminated. At a minimum, postpone for a period that could make the “peace enforcement” of Kiev, according to the most cruel version, already unnecessary. Such a possibility, let's be frank, is extremely illusory, but still it exists. The processes of disintegration covered the “nezalezhnaya” literally at all levels and absolutely in all spheres.

The chances of a most severe humanitarian crisis in the country, which Russia will be able to elegantly and, what is important, almost bloodlessly resolve through “humanitarian intervention” according to the recipe of my highly respected colleague, are growing every day. However, for the time being, it is too early to indulge in hopes and optimistic hopes, frankly. In Prystaiko's own department, his words were immediately called "taken out of context" and reminded that Kiev foolishly entered the "North Atlantic course" into its own Constitution. This, however, was mentioned by the ambassador himself. By the way, he renounced his own words with the speed and ease inherent in all Ukrainian diplomats. Like, he didn’t have any “rejection from NATO” in his thoughts, and by “compromises” he meant only readiness to implement the “Minsk agreements” - and no more. Something similar was said in Zelensky's office. At the same time, they showed a more than mild reaction to the words of a person representing the country in the capital of the “main strategic ally”, and this leads to quite definite thoughts.

The fact is that Prystaiko does not belong to the most odious representatives of that panopticon, into which in the “post-Maidan” years, almost without exception, the foreign policy department of the “nezalezhnaya” turned. It's up to you, but on his face still does not lie that indelible mark of a serious mental disorder that Kuleba or, not to be remembered by night, Klimkin. Well, or their other "colleagues in the shop", an exhaustive characteristic for which is the well-known aphorism of Sergei Lavrov. Again, instead of immediate dismissal from office, or at least a “recall for consultations,” both in the Foreign Ministry itself and in the presidential administration limited themselves to very sparing formulations about his “misconduct”. And the Foreign Ministry also added to this the words of "readiness to enter into any format of negotiations with states and international organizations."

What sounds in all statements, without exception, both diplomats and officials from Zelensky’s office, is a single “ringing note”. She, one might say, “runs like a red thread” through the entire commotion that arose because of the words of the ambassador: “Ukraine is under threat right now. But NATO does not take us and, apparently, they are not going to do this in the near foreseeable future. Consequently, Ukraine has no choice but to "look for other options that will allow it to survive right now." The last words are a direct quote, again, from Prystaiko. From his new speech, which followed after the rearing "patriots" demanded to almost commit an auto-da-fé over him for "unheard of harm." Something doesn't hurt, the ambassador looks like a frightened apostate who repents of heresy and sprinkles ashes on his head. Rather, on a person bending his line. And - reinforced concrete coordinated "above".

You come to the same conclusion after reading another “epoch-making” speech by Volodymyr Zelensky before the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada who did not have time to scatter abroad. You see, he thinks that “today, many leaders in the West are hinting to Ukraine about the need to abandon the course towards NATO and the EU. Yes, in fact, no one is hiding this anymore ... "Honestly, I really want to add to what has been said:" Yes, yes! Moreover, after that, the “head of state”, listing the “fronts” on which “a war is being waged” today against the “independent” one, also called “informational”, where various bad people “are trying to sow panic among citizens and investors through the media”. Thus, as if writing down in the ranks of "pests" and enemies of Ukraine its own "Western partners", all this bogey and gave birth. Further, however, the most natural clowning followed, without which this character clearly cannot exist, as without air to breathe. On January 16, already called in the West “the date of the imminent invasion of Russia,” Zelensky, out of some fright, declared the “Day of Unity.” In which all the inhabitants of the country are ordered to "put on ribbons" of the appropriate colors and "demonstrate their unity to the world." Smells like a clean clinic.

In fact, Zelensky and all his entourage are well aware of the simplest thing - another, maximum, a month or two of "invasion" and the country will collapse without any tanks from the East and North. Promoted at the suggestion of the "collective West", which will not lift a finger for real assistance to Ukraine and, even more so, for its salvation, the mass psychosis is acquiring completely unhealthy forms and proportions. The only chance for official Kiev today to retain its power and “feeding trough” for some time is to relieve tension, and the sooner and more reliably, the better. “By sacrificing itself on the altar of peace in Europe” by renouncing membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, Ukraine will render a service to everyone. To yourself first and foremost.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 February 2022 09: 27
    The entry (non-entry) of Ukraine into NATO is no longer relevant and should not be discussed.
    Firstly, for the reason that at present the Treaties are easily canceled or rewritten.
    Secondly, joining (not joining) NATO does not make sense in and of itself. No one can forbid Ukraine to conclude bilateral agreements on the deployment of military bases on its territory. They are supplied with weapons without any NATO. And it is unlikely that Kiev pays for it.
    The only thing that can reduce tension is the full and precise implementation of the Minsk agreements, the integration of Donbass into the political field of Ukraine and the participation of Donetsk politicians in the work of the Verkhovna Rada. With the right to veto major decisions concerning the fate of the country. Without Donbass, Ukraine will forever remain anti-Russia. With Donbass and Novorossia in its composition, Ukraine will become neutral.
    That is, a non-bloc, neutral federal Ukaina is beneficial to Russia. Moreover, it is federal not only in relation to Donbass, but also to the whole of New Russia.
    Based on this, the recognition of the independence of the LDNR (or inclusion in Russia) objectively plays against the interests of Moscow. The faction of the Communist Party in the State Duma simply does not understand the essence of what is happening.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 15 February 2022 10: 07
      That is, a non-bloc, neutral federal Ukraine is beneficial for Russia.

      Woke up. Well, at least 30 years later something began to reach the officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. If such a status had been achieved for Ukraine, then shipbuilding programs would not have been disrupted. At the KTOF, for the task of the PLO Kuriles, not museum exhibits, modern frigates would be released. The VKS would have received the An-70, a modernized An-124. Instead of the freak Il-112V, there would have been a ready-made An-178. Moreover, all aircraft are at a price acceptable to the Russian Ministry of Defense. We were able to finish building the UDC for a long time at the Nikolaev plant.
      The military group would not have to be created in an emergency, tearing up parts of the Central and Eastern districts.
      1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
        sH, arK 15 February 2022 15: 16
        God save! Never and never!!!
        Everything, thank God the train has left!!! No An-70s, no factories in Durkain! Only in the Stone Age! Then 50 years in the desert, like Moses, then the rest - to yourself, no more foolishness and other nonsense!
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 09: 34
    In the event that Kiev takes a step of goodwill of this magnitude, it will be possible to do something significant in response. For example, to carry out a demonstrative "withdrawal of troops" away from the Western borders. Return to the games called "Minsk Process" and "Normandy format", while "pausing" (for some time) the issue of official recognition of the DPR and LPR.

    Great, just great. That is, to do everything as the former Ukraine wants. Maybe another ten billion donate for such a step of goodwill?
    What prevents the former Ukraine from taking a new course towards joining NATO a month later? Who will prevent the military bases of NATO countries from being placed on its territory? Who will force them to comply with the Minsk agreements. Maybe we will return the Crimea to celebrate?
  3. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 09: 40
    Quote: Bakht
    Without Donbass, Ukraine will forever remain anti-Russia.

    Not at all. Without Donbass and without Novorossia, the former Ukraine may remain anti-Russia. But only until the next section. Everything depends on the political will of the Russian authorities.
    The DPR and LPR are already integrating into the Russian economy. Why drag them back and forth?
    Either their independence, or, if they wish, joining Russia.
    And for anyone - in controlling their territories completely. That is liberation from occupation.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 February 2022 09: 49
      Embedding the economies of Donetsk and Lugansk into the Russian economy is exactly what is spelled out in the Minsk agreements.
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 10: 00
        Well, it still needs to be proven and fought in Kiev. Why all this trouble? It is much more reliable to divide the former Ukraine into several parts. And try to have either friendly or neutral authorities there. Hostile countries to divide until they sober up.
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 February 2022 10: 08
          How do you plan to "divide the former Ukraine into several parts"? Military or political?
          How do you plan to plant "friendly or neutral authorities" there? Military or political?
          Your wishes do not seem realizable. Rather, on the contrary. The division of Ukraine into several parts means that there will be a hostile flock on the borders of Russia. And the military bases of the West in close proximity to the borders of Russia. When talking about NATO bases in Ukraine, no one in their right mind assumes that these will be NATO bases. These will be American and British bases. And for their placement, the presence of Ukraine in NATO is not required at all.
          Moscow demands security guarantees in the western direction. And so the best solution would be to preserve a united Ukraine. Including with Lviv and the western regions. But definitely federal. With the ability to influence the political decisions of the Verkhovna Rada. And for this, deputies from the LDNR (ideally from Novorossia) should be in this very Rada.
        2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
          gunnerminer (gunner miner) 15 February 2022 10: 09
          Yesterday on the Russia channel, this is how the pants of an unkilled bear were divided. Considered the project of division of the Ukrainian territory. Late. Not from those trump cards came. Missed the Ukrainian youth of military age.
          1. Ruriks127 Offline Ruriks127
            Ruriks127 (Ivan) 16 February 2022 11: 59
            In the sense of being poorly fed? In Poland, they will feed better. Fair wind to them and all the best
  4. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 10: 14
    Quote: Bakht
    The division of Ukraine into several parts means that there will be a hostile flock on the borders of Russia.

    Does that mean it will get worse than it is now?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 February 2022 14: 09
      Yes, it will get worse.
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 14: 53
        I do not think so. "Divide and conquer" - this wisdom is many, many years old.
  5. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 10: 20
    Quote: Bakht
    How do you plan to "divide the former Ukraine into several parts"? Military or political?

    Republican recognition.
    Military alliance with the republics.
    An ultimatum to Kiev to liberate the territory of the republics.
    Military liberation of New Russia.

    Further - to support those forces that, with the protection of Russia, will build either neutral or friendly states to Russia. Which is quite realistic if there is protection from Kiev and the West. This is the political part.

    Keep the rest of the former Ukraine under control. If reasonable people do not come to power, divide into parts until the desired result is obtained.

    Military force is needed only once - now. Then they will listen more carefully.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 February 2022 14: 11
      You are proposing a war against Ukraine. That is exactly what the West wants.
      Recognition of the LDNR republics DOES NOT MEAN recognition (let alone liberation) of Novorossiya. Even the CPRF faction does not raise such a question. No need to run ahead of the locomotive. The military liberation of Novorossiya is possible only after Novorossiya itself declares its sovereignty.
  6. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 10: 23
    Quote: Bakht
    And so the best solution would be to preserve a united Ukraine.

    What exactly is optimal?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 February 2022 14: 13
      A united neutral Ukraine means no enemy bases on Russia's border. Further it is necessary to solve economic methods. Sanctions against Ukraine, in order to change the political regime in Kiev.
  7. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 15 February 2022 11: 57
    Neither Ukraine nor Georgia will refuse to join the EU and NATO Never. The question is how the Russian Federation can prevent this.
    If, after all, it somehow contrives and interferes with official entry, NATO has a workaround - an expanded partnership that today covers Ukraine, Georgia, Finland, Sweden, Jordan and Australia, which is essentially the same thing. it will be possible to expand this partnership up to actual membership in NATO. In addition, there are also associate members like Colombia, various post-colonial unions under the leadership of the former metropolises - Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, and simply ready to serve anyone who pays more, just like people who are also looking for an owner who would buy them for a high price (salary).
    The EU and NATO will expand to the limits designated by the Eastern Partnership and the Union for the Mediterranean, and the so-called. the expanded partnership will cover the territories that the EU and NATO will be able to assimilate in the course of the formation of the three main world centers - the EU-USA-PRC and the redistribution of spheres of influence between them, including regional ones.
  8. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 14: 58
    Quote: Bakht
    You are proposing a war against Ukraine. That is exactly what the West wants.

    Yes, I'm assuming a war against the former Ukraine. As for the fact that the West is seeking this, I know absolutely nothing. Yes, and it doesn't matter.
    The main thing is that it happened that it is the war with the Bandera state that can improve the security of my country. They were given 8 (eight) years, or rather twenty years, to understand the perniciousness of creating a nationalist state. Not understood. Who is their doctor?
  9. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 15: 02
    Quote: Bakht
    A united neutral Ukraine means no enemy bases on Russia's border.

    No. Let it be better to have several friendly states independent of Kiev. And states, neutral.
    And ideally, if the DNR and LNR want, then their adoption in the Russian Federation.

    Your united Ukraine missed the time to become neutral.
    She blew 30 years of her history. A miscarriage of history.
  10. Alexander K_2 Offline Alexander K_2
    Alexander K_2 (Alexander K) 15 February 2022 16: 16
    But in my opinion, but to the “collective West”, Russia would inflict the GREATEST DAMAGE by withdrawing capital from the West and the USA, getting rid of real estate and resettling its relatives, for example, in Siberia, in the Arctic region!
  11. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 16: 26
    Quote: Bakht
    The military liberation of Novorossiya is possible only after Novorossiya itself declares its sovereignty.

    Nu, nu. Let's see.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  12. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 15 February 2022 17: 59
    Ukraine can join NATO only within the borders of two western regions, which the Poles will take for themselves))
  13. Marciz Offline Marciz
    Marciz (Stas) 16 February 2022 04: 26
    Well, join NATO and what will happen!!!??? They yelled at Russia and, out of fright, having burned thousands of tons of fuel and lubricants, they first put forward and then pushed back their troops, they themselves don’t know what they want !!!