One step away from the escalation of the conflict in Europe: Vladimir Putin's Plan B enters the final phase


Few people here believe in the war in Ukraine. But in vain! I myself did not believe in it literally until the last day. I was even ready to bet that this would not happen, proceeding from the fact that neither Moscow nor Kiev needed it (when else have we observed such a unity of views?).


Nobody wanted war, war was inevitable


В previous text I put two markers by which it was possible to judge the further continuation of events. First marker was leaked (or not leaked) to the press of the US response to the Kremlin to provide him with written guarantees of his safety. The appearance of such documents in the press meant that an agreement could not be reached, Moscow was burning the last bridges and hopes for a peaceful resolution of the crisis and moving on to a military scenario. The reverse option (not draining) still left some hope that a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the so-called plan "A", is possible. Second marker was the implementation (or non-implementation) of the Minsk agreements by Kiev. The refusal to implement Minsk-2 finally buried Plan A (an agreement between Moscow and Washington) and forced the Kremlin to resort to forceful resolution of the conflict (the so-called Plan B) - forcing the hegemon to peace by military and military-technical methods (what no one knows until now!).

As a result, both markers collapsed this week. Who leaked the US response to the press is no longer so important, the main thing is that the document was exposed. And Kiev's refusal to discuss the issues of the return of Donbass with representatives of the self-proclaimed republics finally put an end to the Minsk agreements. Everyone who saw with their own eyes the final press conference of Kozak and Yermak following the results of their Berlin negotiations in the Normandy format understood everything already from the expression on the faces of the main negotiators. At a time when Yermak, in his drunken move, was bleating something sadly about his hopes for the continuation of the negotiation process, Kozak, with a stone and extremely tired face, stated in plain text that the 9-hour negotiations had reached an impasse due to the fault of the Ukrainian side and those who supported its Germans and French.

Now I would not be in a hurry to wipe my feet on Yermak's comrades and on the German and French negotiators. Macron did everything he could to preserve the peace agenda, having made a blitz tour along the Paris-Moscow-Kyiv route this week and holding unscheduled negotiations with top officials of the Russian Federation and the 404th. It is clear that the reason for this was the upcoming presidential elections in France in April and Macron’s desire to crown himself with the laurels of a peacemaker, but I do not at all rule out the sincere desire of the French president to propose his plan for resolving the conflict, which was based on the idea of ​​​​finlandization of Ukraine. And I saw with what hope he looked into Zelensky's mouth at their joint press conference, waiting for words of support from him for his plan. But in vain! Zelensky might be happy to support him, but who will let him do it?! He is an absolutely obnoxious man. As did all of his retinue. The kindest-hearted grandfather Joe holds him by the throat with an iron grip through detachments of fascist thugs hiding behind the banners of nationalist patriots, sitting on the suction of the SBU, and through it on the suction of the CIA and the US State Department.

Zelensky would be happy to sign Macron’s plan and even fulfill his promises to Putin two years ago (at the last Normandy Four summit in Paris in 2019), but only the fear of repeating the fate of Ceausescu and his wife does not allow him to do this. Zelensky goal like a falcon! He has no power resource, for his life, as well as for the life of his wife and children, no one in Ukraine will give even a broken penny. As soon as he dares to do something past the will of his white master, they will immediately give the command "face" and I'm not sure that he will live, like Ceausescu, to a military tribunal, and will not be hung upside down on the first tree near his house . And Yermak will hang out next to him. Involuntarily, you will bleat like a sheep during the negotiations.

Who decides fate in Ukraine became clear after the recent YouTube blocking of two opposition channels to Zelensky, which had previously been sanctioned by the National Security and Defense Council. If in his country Zelensky can do what he wants (within the limits of what is permitted by the white master), then he has no power outside of it, and he definitely cannot tell YouTube who to block and who not. But maybe his overseas owner. And in the run-up to his Plan C, he doesn't need anyone's mouthpieces to challenge Washington's point of view about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, in addition to Viktor Medvedchuk's five already closed opposition TV channels (112 Ukraine, ZIK, NewsOne, UkrLive and Pershoy Nezalezhny), Evgeny Muraev's last opposition channel NASH was recently added. Grandpa Joe is all set to implement his Plan C. And from today the countdown has begun. Therefore, as sad as it is for me to admit it, Plan A seems to have been covered with a copper basin (if it even existed, and was not a figment of our fantasies). As soon as the threat of the implementation of the Kremlin's Plan B loomed in front of the White House, Grandpa Joe immediately activated his Plan C to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Where, according to his plan, Russia will also be drawn through provocation, which will instantly pull along the whole complex of pre-prepared measures that provide for sanctions, a trade embargo and an Iron Curtain-2.0.

The minimum chances for the implementation of plan "A" still remain (no more than 2-3%), but they asymptotically tend to zero. Why such sad conclusions? Everything is very simple - for a banal masquerade, everything has gone too far. I can still believe in the cover operation in the information sphere and the evacuation of the embassies of 15 US satellite states, but the facts of massive deliveries of lethal weapons in the last decade of the past and the first month of this year tell only one thing - the States are not joking. These thoughts are suggested by deliveries in the fall of 2021, mainly under an additional military aid package (allocated by the United States in August), of ammunition for small arms and infantry weapons of Western calibers. For three months, 1,266 million cartridges of caliber 12,7 x 99 mm, 2,309 million cartridges of caliber 7,62 x 51 mm, 572,8 thousand cartridges of caliber 5,56 x 45 mm and 14860 cartridges of 12-caliber, as well as shots of caliber 213248 x 40 mm for automatic grenade launchers. At the beginning of 53, these deliveries were continued, although the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not have weapons of these calibers in significant quantities (deliveries of 2022 units of 200-mm Mk 40 grenade launchers were made only in January 19). Note that these are all BCs of the NATO standard, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have weapons for it, from which follows the primitive as a shaft conclusion that in the near future it is planned to mass transfer American small arms of these calibers to non-brothers. Grandpa Joe was obviously going to fight for more than one day, as they say, to the last Ukrainian of any nationality (and rightly so, why feel sorry for them?).

Deliveries of the rest of the BC from the allies, including the antediluvian American FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank systems and the Swedish slightly newer NLAW one-time counterpart, as well as the American FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS that proved themselves during the war in Afghanistan, however, in a newer DMS modification , (designed for 2 missiles and having radar support), I suppose they were carried out solely for the purpose of disposal, for which the non-brothers will also pay. These deliveries of man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems will not make the weather in Ukraine and will not change the existing balance of power, I assume that they were made rather with the aim of whipping up psychosis and to divert the eyes of their own population and bargain with the Russian Federation.

Escalation


What can not be said about the airlift to Europe of the most elite American units of the Rapid Reaction Force. The 82nd All-American Airborne Division, whose brigade was transferred from Fort Bragg (North Carolina) to Romania, as well as the 101st Air Assault Division, whose brigade was transferred from Fort Campbell (Kentucky) to Poland, are part of the 18 76th Airborne Corps, whose command has been transferred from Fort Bragg to Germany, from where it will direct the ground operations of the Rapid Deployment Forces in Europe. This is the most seasoned elite of the US Armed Forces, who went through a lot of wars and armed conflicts (something like our Pskov and Ryazan paratroopers of the 106th Guards Airborne Division and the 4th Guards Airborne Division), which, together with the XNUMXth mechanized "ivy" infantry division, whose brigade of "iron horses" was deployed from Fort Carson (Colorado) to the Polish-Ukrainian border, will be able to quickly solve the most complex tasks assigned to them by the command.

And they will have one task, when / if Putin’s Buryat horse-diving divisions invade the territory of Nezalezhnaya, they will have to cross the border within an hour and take control of the western enclave of Ukraine, limited by Lvov, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnitsky and Chernivtsi regions (these are the Carpathians and Bukovina, mind you, Transcarpathia is not there, because the Hungarians do not share the views of their senior comrades in NATO). That is why Western diplomats race with each other and transfer their consulates and embassies there. Sergei Kuzhugetovich is aware of these American plans, and he will do everything to prevent this from happening, because our plans do not include seizing the Left Bank and Central Ukraine and giving the Poles and Romanians Western Ukraine. What difference does it make to Putin where the US missile bases will be located - near Kharkov or near Ternopil, in principle they should not be there!

And although we are not going to invade anywhere, everything is planned in advance in the plans of the General Staff. If we are forced to do this by bungling up another provocation, which I expect in the next two or three days (moreover, it will not necessarily be Donbass, it could be Crimea, and even the territory of Nezalezhnaya, where they will undermine, for example, the cascade of the Dnieper dams and accuse we are in this), then we will not stop in the Donbass. Putin does not need this scanty stub, if we take it by force, then the entire Nezalezhna - to the Polish, Hungarian, Slovak and Romanian borders. What difference will it make to us even then, if we are still subject to sanctions for the very “I don’t want to”. Although, so that you do not have any illusions, sanctions will be included in any case, no matter what we do, we will still get them. This is not a matter of place, but of time. Now they're just looking for a reason. And so that they would have fewer reasons, we fenced off the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, including the Kerch Strait, in advance for the duration of the exercises and missile firing starting on February 13, so that the non-brothers would not have an irresistible desire to drive some of their rotten longboat to the Krymsky ram bridge with the sole purpose of dying the death of the brave somewhere on the outskirts of it.

For other purposes, the SPM assembled an unprecedented power grouping of the Russian Navy, which includes three Project 1164 Atlant missile cruisers, two of which are the flagships of their fleets (RK Moskva - Black Sea Fleet, RK Varyag - Pacific Fleet, and RK "Marshal Ustinov" is simply inferior in these indicators to the flagship of the Northern Fleet TARK "Peter the Great", two large anti-submarine ships - BOD "Admiral Kulakov" (SF) and BOD "Admiral Tributs" (TOF), both projects 1155, and four frigates - heavy frigate of project 22350 "Admiral Kasatonov" (SF) and three light frigates from the Black Sea Fleet of the admiral series of project 11356R - "Admiral Grigorovich", "Admiral Makarov" and "Admiral Essen". All ships are carriers of missile weapons, including subsonic cruise "Caliber", supersonic anti-ship missiles "Onyx" and hypersonic winged "Zircons". Two anti-submarine torpedo and missile anti-ship and anti-aircraft corvettes of project 20380 "Resistant" and "Savvy" (now passing Gibraltar) are also going there from the Baltic weapons (sama e armed ships in their class).

The aircraft carrier Harry Truman, hanging around in the SPM, with cover ships, which includes the missile cruiser USS San Jacinto, the destroyers USS Bainbridge, USS Cole, USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, as well as the Norwegian frigate Fridtjof, already felt uncomfortable. The flagship of the 6th Fleet of the US Navy, the command ship USS Mount Whitney, has already left, however, it was replaced by the Ohio-class multi-purpose nuclear submarine SSGN 729 Georgia with 154 winged Tomahawks on board. But in principle, there are enough of our submarines there (six brand new diesel-electric submarines of project 636.3 "Varshavyanka" of the Black Sea Fleet with "Caliber" on board). As you can see, Sergei Kuzhugetovich thoroughly prepared for the meeting. At the same time, we ourselves are not going to attack anyone. But we will fight for peace in such a way that it can leave no stone unturned. Grandpa Joe was also informed about this, and he is waiting with horror for the start of our large-scale exercises, which will involve the entire nuclear triad of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation, air, sea and land-based at the same time. This has never happened before in the history of the Russian Federation. Seeing Biden's preparations for war, Putin moved the start of the exercises planned for the fall to February. Something will! It will be so hot that I'm afraid someone will get burnt.

Putin's task is as simple as a day. Since Biden's plans are already clear - grandfather wants to organize a massacre in Ukraine and draw the Russian Federation into it, hanging all the dogs on it, he has already announced the date, which means that we need to kill his card with our own. We cannot avoid going to war, if the Donbass is touched, then we will intervene in any way and we will not stop there, we will go to the end (the experience of Tbilisi in 2008 taught us a lot). But again, this is not at all in our plans. How to escape from this trap? What can Putin do against Biden's Plan C? Oddly enough, my plan "B", which I already писал. If Biden is waiting for us in Ukraine and has already prepared everything for this, then he should not be given such pleasure. Watching how the non-brothers get burned, Grandpa Joe from across the ocean can for a long time and with great pleasure, it's not like he burns. So, it is necessary to make it so that it burns with him. Do not play his part doomedly according to the notes, but impose your own on him. And for this, Putin has everything ready too. Otherwise, he would not have come out at the end of last year with his ultimatum, putting forward demands that cannot be met, and it is also impossible to refuse to comply without an intelligible answer.

Transition from Varangians to Greeks


And so that Grandpa Joe had no way to get away from the Kremlin’s proposals, on a gray January morning at the beginning of 2022, three large landing ships immediately sailed from the base of the Northern Fleet Severomorsk from the wall - the Pyotr Morgunov large landing ship (project 11711), the Olenegorsky miner large landing ship "And the large landing ship" George the Victorious "(both project 775) and quietly moved to the west at low speed. At that time, no one paid much attention to this fact until, having rounded Norway from the north, they entered the Baltic Sea through a series of straits on January 13, alarming all the Swedish Moremans there, who strengthened their posts on the island of Gotland because of this. But the detachment of the BDK SF did not pay attention to this and on January 15 moored at the wall of the port of Baltiysk, where at that time three other BDK were loading and preparing for the exit, this time of the Baltic Fleet - BDK "Minsk", "Korolev" and "Kaliningrad" (all projects 775, Severnaya Verf, Gdansk, Poland). Nobody knows what they were loaded with (military secret!).

On January 17, Western monitoring resources recorded this group of ships at the exit from the Baltic Sea, when they, having passed the Øresund Straits (separates Denmark and Sweden) and Skagerrak (separates Denmark and Norway), entered the North Sea. A day later, in the same place in the North Sea, a group of BDK SF joined them, which also loaded something to the eyeballs in Baltiysk, after which they slowly moved west in two groups. All except Pyotr Morgunov, which had a larger displacement, almost scooped on board on the move, cruising at a speed of 18 knots in the direction of the British Isles, where the reconnaissance ship Vasily Tarpishchev joined the group. After that, all NATO resources began to follow the detachment of landing ships that followed without combat escort. The fact that this was an unplanned exit is evidenced by the fact that two BDKs of the BF - "Minsk" and "Korolev" had just returned from a long trip two weeks before, to two days later go on a new, even more distant one. Let me remind you that it was just the height of negotiations with NATO and the United States, when Deputy. Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Grushko has already promised the "partners" in case of non-fulfillment of our demands, retaliatory measures of a military and military-technical nature. The Caribbean Crisis 2.0 smelled distinctly in the air.

The “partners” quietly swelled up from such words and began to follow the group of our BDK even more closely, fearing that they would turn towards Latin America. We all, too, clung to the radar with enthusiasm. I already predicted that in Baltiysk the BDK was taken on board by the 152nd Guards Rifle Brigade (Chernyakhovsky Iskander Brigade) with R-500 cruise missiles as ammunition, one salvo of which is 24 KR, the radius of destruction of which no one knows for sure (here are the Americans on their own skin and find out how far our Iskander-K fly). But things didn't turn out the way they wanted when, having crossed the English Channel, the BDK detachment turned south. Now the Ukrainians began to guess about the purpose of the campaign. But their happiness was waiting for them a little later, when six BDK, having unloaded in Tartus (SAR), headed for the Black Sea.

Yankees, go home!


Putin again confirmed the worst fears of our potential adversary about him, answering asymmetrically as usual. American and other sworn “partners” who barked at him were waiting for him in Ukraine, domestic members of the circle of pseudo-science fiction lovers expected to see him emerge from the depths of the sea or, at worst, emerge from space, but he again surfaced in the wrong place and hit the wrong one. When the consolidated detachment of the BDK of the two fleets departed from the wall of Baltiysk and headed west, it became clear that it had begun ... That damned plan "B" of the GDP entered the final phase. Biden was waiting for Putin in Ukraine, he had already lost his voice, scaring everyone with his threat, and he had prepared gifts for him in Syria, where fellow Americans obviously sat for an extra couple of years, and even in the most oil-bearing province, without having any authority to do so.

Biden wants to see how Russians and Ukrainians kill each other, warning in advance that the Americans are not going to participate in this, but will see something else, after which the exit from Afghanistan will seem to him like a fairy tale about a white bull. At the same time, please note that we act exclusively on legal grounds. The representative of Syria to the UN Security Council has already filed an application with a request to consider the issue of the illegal presence of the US military in the territory of the SAR. Do you think it happened by chance? I do not think so! He who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind. Storm in the desert! Take seats in the stalls, it will be very interesting. Now Grandpa Joe is competing with the evil projectionist of the Kremlin, who will be the first to start showing his movie. Biden has already sold everything for his tickets in advance. Only, I'm afraid, I'll have to return the money due to the absence of the two main actors.

And to all Ukrainian “heroes” who dream of tasting the power of Russian weapons, I advise you to urgently grow beards and sign up as volunteers for the Syrian front. Putin once again, contrary to the promises of Blinkin and Co., will not come to the war with Ukraine, and will start a military campaign where he is least expected. The Americans explained the postponement of Putin’s attack on the 404th by an unusual mudslide for winter, forgetting that Russian tanks are not afraid of dirt, and were horrified by just one division of our Iskanders at the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Allied Resolve-2022”, I imagine that they are waiting for when the exercises of our nuclear triad begin simultaneously on a vast territory from the Kuriles to Plesetsk, and from the Barents and White Seas to the Black and Caspian, and under the roar of this cannonade the Syrian campaign starts. I think Biden will definitely not be up to Ukraine then.

Abduction of Europa


But, nevertheless, I would not be in a hurry to accuse Grandpa Joe of bloodthirstiness. After all, Putin, with his ultimatum, left him practically no other option. After all, the war here is far from over Ukraine. She's just a pawn, a bargaining chip. Europe is at stake, and who will milk it in the future. Stupid Europe may even understand this with its spinal cord, but it cannot do anything, all self-defense reflexes are atrophied as a result of 70 years of colonial rule, all the ruling elites have degenerated and degraded and are doomed to lead it to the scaffold.

The head of the Foreign Office, the deaf-and-deaf and mute tanker Elisabeth Truss, who recently visited Moscow, surprised even Sergey Lavrov, who had seen the sights. Apparently, the laurels of Margaret Thatcher haunted her all her life, until she rode on the main battle tank of Britain's Challenger on the Estonian training ground a few kilometers from the border of the Russian Federation. Apparently, at the same time, she was covered with a hatch, because in a conversation with Lavrov, she questioned the belonging of the Voronezh and Rostov regions of the Russian Federation and, in all seriousness, suggested that Sergei Viktorovich reduce (not withdraw, namely reduce!) His military units on the border with Ukraine (confusing him , probably with Minister of Defense Shoigu). So is it any wonder after that that such and similar people are doing everything to bring Russia under sanctions, after which the whole of Europe risks being left without gas. “Then what will you heat? Putin asks. - Firewood? So for firewood, you also need to go to Siberia!

Although the Anglo-Saxons can still be understood, their pink dream is to unleash a slaughter in Ukraine by proxy and lower the Russian Federation, and with it the snickering Europe, into the Middle Ages. After that, take over the EU states that are falling apart under the inevitable Russian sanctions and parasitize on their corpse for another couple of centuries. The fact that Ukraine itself will descend into the Stone Age does not bother anyone in London and America at all. The operation is called the abduction of Europa.

What will happen to Ukraine, I will tell you next time. Nobody is going to fight for her, she will go to the winner of the duel between the USA and the Russian Federation automatically in the form of a free application. Although I do not lose hope also for the implementation of plan "A". If an agreement between Putin and Biden did take place, then we are all participants in a large-scale swindle, or rather spectators, they are participants. But in any case, there is only one intermission left before the end of the performance, and in the near future we will find out how it all ends. If there was no agreement, then both main actors will compete for the right to play their own movie for us. Biden's premiere is scheduled for February 16. Putin is still silent about the date.
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  1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 23: 35
    -19
    Biden was waiting for Putin in Ukraine, he had already lost his voice, scaring everyone with his threat, and he had prepared gifts for him in Syria, where American comrades sat for a couple of extra years, and even in the most oil-bearing province, without having any authority to do so.

    Yes, the crews of the BDK deftly packed the Washington puppets in the former Syria, and brought them prisoners to Sevastopol. Correctly, the author predicted the details of plan B. And now you can successfully bargain over the phone about plan C. With the submarine sailing away. laughing

    Plan U: It will sort itself out somehow.
    1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
      alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 01: 33
      +7
      Biden's plan C in Cyrillic is the letter K - "Surrender" from Shakali, but plan U - Run away so that sparks fly from the sole, like from Afghanistan.
    2. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 06
      +10
      comrade miner, you are degrading! before kammenty were smarter! why? cut salary?
      1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 11: 27
        -10
        Мечтаю о пленном НАТОвском спецназовце, расконвоированном , которого нам на подьезд дадут помогать по хозяйству. Будет для меня бегать на дешевую оптовку , махаться за дешевые макарошки с селедкой. Заодно мусорные баки очистит. А то жулики коммунальщики не просыхают аж с прошлогоднего Наурыза. Желаю Вам успехов в политруковском боевом деле.
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 14: 13
          +2
          here, it's better! because you can whenever you want!
  2. Yuri Neupokoev Offline Yuri Neupokoev
    Yuri Neupokoev (Yuri Neupokoev) 14 February 2022 01: 19
    +2
    Judging by the nerves of the GDP with pasta, they did not agree. Rates will continue to rise. It is necessary to show the impudent Saxons that they are on the islands, that it is not safe now.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 09
      +11
      GDP just listened to Macron and gave him time to try to persuade Kiev, but he didn’t succeed, after which GDP turned on the stricter, the games of spillikins ended at the negotiations between Kozak and Yermak
      1. Yuri Neupokoev Offline Yuri Neupokoev
        Yuri Neupokoev (Yuri Neupokoev) 14 February 2022 15: 51
        +3
        Well, yes, it seems. Judging by the rhetoric of Kozak. There was no such thing. Like I said, the stakes are going up. We need NATO to go beyond the Oder militarily. Which is quite real for them. Economically, the impudent Saxons can continue to develop all these countries), we are not against it.
  3. Sergey Pavlenko Offline Sergey Pavlenko
    Sergey Pavlenko (Sergey Pavlenko) 14 February 2022 01: 41
    +12
    Many have forgotten about Putin's warnings to those countries that hosted missile defense systems, Romania, Poland, etc., because he warned that if something happened, he would strike at these targets, now let them think about it, and this indeed the one (a strike on these targets) that can very well cool down many hotheads in the west. Well, the second question that should not be forgotten: Putin must have agreed with his partner from China, Xi, that they could start an operation in Taiwan at that moment .... Here is what Uncle Joe will do after all these joint actions raises many questions.
    1. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 03: 35
      +2
      Sorry, I read your post to the end later than I wrote mine! ))) but I have the same opinion! ;-)
  4. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
    sH, arK 14 February 2022 02: 21
    -1
    I'm not sure about the content of plans A and B, but the numbering is definitely not the same! For the main most anticipated and prepared plan is always the most probable! Therefore, plan A, which takes into account agreement with the basic requirements, cannot be called an "ultimatum" due to the stupidity of journalists. And even "plan B" is impossible! This probability was zero, and it is unlikely that it was taken seriously at all;)
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 13
      +3
      comrade Shark, but I have a feeling that Plan A will take place and Grandpa Joe will solemnly announce that he prevented the war in Ukraine, Putin got scared (although he was not going to attack anyone) and ran away, but for this he had to make concessions to the evil Pu. Let's wait until February 16... If plan A doesn't work, then I'm waiting for plan B or C, but I hope for A
      1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
        sH, arK 14 February 2022 10: 33
        +1
        You can hope, hope, as you know, dies last;)) But publishing an "ultimatum" based on such "hopes" is simply stupid! And we have never done such stupid things and never will! (Well, I certainly hope!)
        Therefore, the goal was initially completely different - there is a bifurcation point ahead, a serious change in the paradigm of further relations, and this published "ultimatum" and the demand for a public quick response to it is a clear signal of readiness to make a DECISION! But what exactly it means, we are guessing here! But the fact is that it is exactly Plan A, and 100% this is not a hope for the acceptance of an "ultimatum";)
        1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
          alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 21: 29
          +2
          Never marry Nadezhda, you will die before her, and who needs it?
      2. Dear sofa expert. 14 February 2022 19: 15
        +4
        It seems to me that there were no plans "A, B, C ...", and the apogee of all this political fuss around the "ultimatum" will be precisely the recognition of the LDNR by Russia. Everything was correctly led to the refusal of the Ukrainians from the “Minsk agreements.” The trap slammed shut.
        Russia has a "green light" to recognize the republics as independent.
        After recognition, the LDNR will be required to return from the state of Ukraine, the regional territories “chopped off” from them. If the Ukrainians do not give up the land for good, the LDNR (but not Russia!) Will take them by force. But it is precisely for this that the Russian army stands behind them today. The Ukrainians will try to give the LDNR a military rebuff, their troops will be razed to the ground by a remote strike of the Russian troops, that is, no formal Russian invasion of the territory of Ukraine will be needed. Also, the Russian army will keep NATO troops in the "shah" so that they cannot intervene.
        The territorial issue for Ukraine will be “resolved” for some time, but at the same time new centers will be created on the territory of Ukraine. Nobody will accept them in NATO. And the LDNR will later have a good chance for a “Crimean option”.
        Sanctions on Russia, the "West" will impose only formally .. objectively - there's nothing. But there will be a stink.
        Well, how without it?)
    2. EMMM Offline EMMM
      EMMM 14 February 2022 20: 27
      +3
      Paradox! The most likely option is the one that no one expects
      1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
        alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 21: 32
        +1
        We knew and waited for spring to come, but it suddenly and unexpectedly unexpectedly came on March 1. wink
  5. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 14 February 2022 02: 29
    +5
    Russia is not under pressure. Ukraine under pressure. Europe under pressure (prices). The United States is under pressure (they are forced to constantly support the Russian invasion in the news agenda (it’s impossible for a long time). And Russia, it’s comfortable now. Have they abandoned Minsk? Definitely or not yet? Well, maybe we’ll find out in another week. Then maybe we’ll think further.
    Ukraine is now like a cauldron on fire, the temperature is rising. In case it blows too hard, Russia keeps a fire extinguisher at the ready.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 16
      +4
      here in Ukraine, no one really believes in war, from the word "absolutely", I live in Kharkov, it is in the direction of the main strike Pu
      1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
        Alex777 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 15: 08
        +1
        May God help us all.
  6. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 03: 20
    +5
    Volodya! Again great article! Well done. It's nice to read your style! And there is logic. However, I think Putin wouldn't be Putin if he didn't have fallbacks up his sleeve. Such as D, E, F .... I'm sure he and our General Staff have them. We can only guess... but everything will be fine for us, and not so good for the pale-faced partners. And it seems to me that as soon as, in this struggle for a place under the Sun, it becomes clear that the Western chess game has been won by RUSSIA, the PRC will instantly occupy Taiwan and the disputed islands. And Japan will say: "poo, kazyavka!".
  7. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 03: 31
    -8
    I have long guessed about our demonstrative response in Syria and reported it in the comments, just as I am worried about a possible nuclear strike on Iran, as a supporter of the Russian Federation and China, by the United States. We are waiting for a strike in the Donbass, and they can strike the YOMP on Iran, diverting the attention of the world community to this event. A noise will rise ... and under this noise they can push the crested to the Donbass ... so TMV will begin.
    1. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 03: 43
      0
      At the same time, if Japan shows any resistance to China, China will destroy this country to the root. The US doesn't even have time to blink....
      but here the countries of the Middle East will come to the fore and begin to wrinkle Israel ... in this situation, given the internal problems of the United States, they will not be able to keep the situation under control and will play the boxman.
    2. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 19
      +6
      nope, well, it's hardly ... too smart! Delete strategic nuclear forces from your tools altogether, forget about them, they are buried, not traded
  8. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 04: 33
    +4
    Ha ha ha! It was funny to watch how "analysts" and "experts" tried to pull an owl on the globe (to combine their crazy theories with the available facts).
    Meanwhile, there is a rule that theories should be built on the basis of facts.
    And then there is the so-called Occam's razor (yes, yes - google it).

    That is why, on January 21.01.22, XNUMX, he predicted that the landing ships were going to the Crimea. He wrote many times about the war on the territory of the former Ukraine. For which I was put minuses by peace-loving inhabitants.

    To put it in the language of the author of the articles, then plan A is to force the Ukrainian authorities to comply with the Minsk agreements, which will lead to the collapse of the country. Plan B - the destruction of the Bandera state by military means. The ultimate goal of both plans is to improve Russia's security and create more favorable conditions for cooperation with the state (states) on the territory of the former Ukraine.
    Well, do not forget that there was an ultimatum. Which has been ignored. Next time jackals and their masters will take Putin's ultimatums with more attention. This is especially true for jackals.
    1. andreyserdtsev Offline andreyserdtsev
      andreyserdtsev (Andrei) 14 February 2022 06: 08
      +11
      Yes, the war in Ukraine is the most obvious scenario, which is the main one for the United States. The problem with its likelihood is that Russia in the 21st century has never acted in an obvious way. No one expected what would happen in Georgia in 2008, in Crimea in 2014 or in Syria in 2015. It is strange to expect that now the GDP will do what its opponents expect from it. Moreover, he himself muddied the whole story.
    2. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 32
      +1
      That is why, on January 21.01.22, XNUMX, he predicted that the landing ships were going to the Crimea. He wrote many times about the war on the territory of the former Ukraine. For which I was put minuses by peace-loving inhabitants.

      this is how analysts differ from charlatan forecasters, they rush about with their forecasts, they give some dates there. I already wrote - even a standing clock shows the correct time twice a day. The BDK did not go to the Crimea, but to Tartus, where they unloaded, after which they went to the World Cup. And what were they to do in the SAR? BDK are not the ships that create an advantage at sea, a ground operation is planned there, and the BDK needs to be a nightmare for Ukraine, but Ukraine is a false target to deter Biden, and the main target is the SAR, and he will fly there

      To put it in the language of the author of the articles, then plan A is to force the Ukrainian authorities to comply with the Minsk agreements, which will lead to the collapse of the country. Plan B - the destruction of the Bandera state by military means. The ultimate goal of both plans is to improve Russia's security and create more favorable conditions for cooperation with the state (states) on the territory of the former Ukraine.

      I have a slightly different plan B, this is the forceful coercion of the United States to peace, Ukraine will get the winner already a makeweight, no one is going to fight for her (and even more so with her!) And the reformatting of Ukraine will take place in a slightly different way, and not in a military way. For the military is a dead end! This is Biden's pink dream, but the GDP, thank God, has more brains than you

      Well, do not forget that there was an ultimatum. Which has been ignored. Next time jackals and their masters will take Putin's ultimatums with more attention. This is especially true for jackals.

      what? did I not misheard? The ultimatum has already been fulfilled, and we haven't even bargained yet! States already agree to sign the INF Treaty, which will nullify the threat of Tomahawks in Poland and Romania and hypothetically in Ukraine
      1. wamp Offline wamp
        wamp 14 February 2022 10: 49
        +2
        Quote: Volkonsky
        Ukraine is a false target to contain Biden, and the main target is the SAR, where he will fly

        Russia's position in the SAR is very weak. The Turks have a complete advantage there. You can squeeze out the Americans, but without direct combat clashes: bombs and rockets of unknown origin, burning caravans .... But in the event of war, Russia will have a deaf defense there.

        How Russia will hit - most likely no one suspects. It can be assumed that the key impact will be in the destruction of the US economy, so there is all the distracting hype about the hot war.
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 11: 06
          +4
          we have an agreement with the Sultan, he controls his territory (bordering Turkey), we have ours, pind * wasps are sitting in a different place, it's time and honor to know
          the Russian Federation has almost no effect on the US economy and cannot affect
          1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
            gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 11: 29
            -9
            We agreed well with the Sultan on the punishment of Pashinyan.
          2. wamp Offline wamp
            wamp 14 February 2022 13: 18
            0
            Quote: Volkonsky
            we have an agreement with the Sultan, he controls his territory

            This is while Russia is not busy "from the other side."
            Do not forget about NATO and its actions in hot...

            Quote: Volkonsky
            the Russian Federation has almost no effect on the US economy and cannot affect

            You wanted to say financially? !!
            I was referring to the political impact leading to the collapse of the dollar.
        2. bobba94 Offline bobba94
          bobba94 (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 12: 15
          +1
          I would like to know more about the collapse of the US economy ....
      2. Avarron Offline Avarron
        Avarron (Sergei) 14 February 2022 13: 19
        -2
        The new INF Treaty will also nullify Caliber and Zircons.
        It's a bad game, we don't like it. (With)
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 14: 06
          +1
          no, it does not apply to sea and air platforms, only land
          1. Avarron Offline Avarron
            Avarron (Sergei) 14 February 2022 20: 00
            0
            This old INF Treaty was not distributed. It’s a no brainer that the Americans will want to include all Putin’s kunshtuk in the new treaty.
        2. Alex777 Offline Alex777
          Alex777 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 15: 19
          0
          The printing press in Russia is not the same system as the US.
          Therefore, we have a fork in the road: either mass production of ground-based systems, or large-scale construction of ships with CR.
          Enemies do not believe that the Russian fleet will pull and can lead.
          The INF Treaty may allow us to deal with the fleet instead of the first one.
          What will become the unconditional success of the Russian Federation. It will serve to strengthen its security and increase influence in the world, for the future. hi
          1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
            Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 16: 10
            -1
            we are talking about short-range and medium-range missiles, we only have them sea and air-based, because the States are overseas, so the INF Treaty suits us perfectly
            and we can only threaten Europeans with Iskanders, but what are they to us?
            1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
              Alex777 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 16: 13
              0
              Quote: Volkonsky
              we are talking about short and medium-range missiles, we only have them sea-based

              The ball is already flying for 500 km. Onyx in Bastion at 800 km.
              Onyxes in Bastions for Zircons are not difficult to change.
              Everything is ready. Question one - where to invest? IMHO.
              About the KR on the Iskanders, I just keep quiet. It's clear there. hi
              1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
                Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 16: 20
                0
                well, yes, Zircon is being grounded right now
                1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
                  Alex777 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 16: 22
                  0
                  And they do not officially advertise its full range.
                  And she is very, very good. bully
            2. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
              alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 21: 48
              +1
              And I wonder if CLUB is sea-based or land-based?
              1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
                Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 21: 54
                0
                The main element of the Club-K complex is a universal starter module, made in the form of a standard Maritime container.
                1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
                  alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 22: 30
                  0
                  Duc, this is all boron cheese, a container at sea and on land is the same container.
    3. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 14 February 2022 09: 04
      +5
      Albert Einstein formulated the principle of "Occam's razor" as follows: - "Everything should be simplified as long as possible, but no more"! .

      A constant, simplistic - primitive approach to business often leads to degradation, and the impossibility of solving complex problems.

      And one more thing: - "Occam's razor" was invented and was originally used as proof of the existence of God - as the simplest explanation of everything that exists.

      Which, in fact, makes this methodological principle completely useless and has nothing to do with real scientific knowledge, because. there are thousands of examples where the "simplest" explanation will not be the most correct.
      1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
        alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 21: 50
        +3
        The shortest path is not always the shortest...
    4. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 09: 08
      -3
      You are so smart and selfish. You are always right. You are stronger than God. (already disgusting). Be cheerful and happy! Yes! And keep it simple! Maybe then you will get rid of proud loneliness ... or maybe - stay the way you are. Need it sometimes
      1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
        Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 10: 06
        +2
        no, no, Borey, the rider is right! but it is the simplest explanation that works in politics, the war in the SFRY began because of Monica Lewinsky, and in Ukraine it could start because of Biden’s internal problems with the 2022 elections and the Fed rate, which must be raised
  9. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 04: 46
    +10
    I wrote a hundred times. The hopes of young men that it is possible to put the United States on cancer somewhere far, far away and nothing will happen to us for this - these are just teenage dreams. And Putin is an adult man, he does not engage in fantasies. Once he pussies with the United States to measure. Yeah, and he will decide to launch nuclear strikes on the United States only when there is REALLY nowhere to go. Not for teenagers to enjoy.

    The only place where it is possible to do something useful for the security and economy of the country is the territory of the former Ukraine. At the same time, it is necessary to throw away the illusion that a variant of good relations with the West is possible. They won't exist as long as Russia has nuclear weapons and is a big, rich and independent country.

    If we are sentenced to sanctions, regardless of our actions, then we can only proceed from our own interests. And let the West choke with indignation.
    1. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 09: 11
      -1
      That is correct.
      And so trite.....
  10. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 05: 16
    -2
    I would not blame the United States and Biden for all the sins. Like they forced Zelensky to fight. Yeah, under pain of death of himself and his family.
    People on the territory of the former Ukraine is already ready to fight. It has been tuned up for eight years, prepared for this. And Zelensky needs to either publicly resign, saying that he will not fight. Or lead the Armed Forces.
    I think that the West has left the choice for the government's coming out. Because this choice does not affect the state of affairs. Sanctions and other nasty things will be issued to Russia regardless of its actions. And therefore, why somehow put pressure on the poor clown?

    In chess, this is called a "fork". Moreover, after the loss of a piece, a quick checkmate will follow.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 07: 39
      +10
      I live in Ukraine, people are not ready to fight, like Zelensky, and you don’t need to sign here for the entire people of Ukraine, 2% are ready to fight and they will scatter after the first strikes of the MLRS
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 08: 14
        +3
        Two percent is enough. I didn’t mean that all 100% are ready to take up arms.
        The people have been "fighting" with Russia for eight years now. And nowhere is your 98% heard or seen. That is, the policy is still determined by these 2%.
        1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
          Alex777 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 16: 20
          0
          Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
          The people have been "fighting" with Russia for eight years now.

          Where are you watching the war from?
      2. Moray Boreas Online Moray Boreas
        Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 14 February 2022 09: 00
        -2
        I live in Ukraine

        Very unexpected! And so in Russian! ;-))
    2. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
      alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 22: 02
      +1
      Russia has prepared a response to the sanctions with its anti-sanctions, and this is for the United States, if not fatal, then they will definitely fall into the disabled. A small list of sore points of impudent Saxony: diesel fuel is now in a terrible deficit in the USA and 20% is supplied by Russia, Aviation (titanium and titanium products and not only titanium), nuclear energy is 100% dependent on Russia, I am generally silent about space, direct dependence on us and a large bouquet of small and large pain points... So, not everything is going smoothly in the Danish kingdom with sanctions.
  11. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 05: 36
    +2
    And the last. For Russian patriots - benders.
    Putin was also given a "fork". Either you are organized and systematically preparing for war.
    Or, when attacking the LDNR, you frantically try to help your citizens.
    The idea of ​​issuing Russian passports is a double-edged sword. Unfortunately, ours took the right step, and then they forgot about it. It was necessary to pursue an offensive policy, but again they relied on a chance.
    Now Russian passports in Donbas are playing against us. We must protect our citizens.
  12. Krilion Offline Krilion
    Krilion (Krilion) 14 February 2022 07: 34
    -5
    the author picked his nose for a long time and gave out "analytics" ...
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 09: 39
      +4
      give yours!
      1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
        alexneg13 (Alexander) 14 February 2022 22: 07
        +2
        Volodya, he will not give out. His lower hemispheres are not capable of analytics, and the upper hemispheres have atrophied from the pan for a long time.
  13. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 08: 16
    0
    Quote: Volkonsky
    this is how analysts differ from charlatan forecasters, they rush about with their forecasts, they give some dates there.

    Nothing. My nickname is not boasting, but irony.
    We all have a meager amount of information and everyone is building their own theory.
    Mine is better than others.
  14. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 08: 21
    +1
    Quote: Volkonsky
    The BDK needs to nightmare Ukraine, but Ukraine is a false target to contain Biden, and the main target is the SAR, and he will fly there

    You are talking about Syria, I'm talking about Ukraine. Time will tell who is right.
    And by the way, you never made assumptions - predictions.
    There someone will fart, and then you will declare that this is your prediction and it happened.
    You have repeatedly promised to tell us how we Americans will win.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 09: 56
      0
      I already told FSE, you need to read more carefully
      1) there will be no war in Ukraine, these are all decorations designed to hide the agreement between Biden and GDP
      2) if the 1st point is the fruit of our fantasies, then Biden has plan C - the war in Ukraine, the GDP has plan B - the war in the SAR, but it began only after the OI and after the strategic nuclear forces exercises (the exercises will be such that the whole world will sit down, I think that after them the states will do everything), the beginning of the triad exercises after the Olympic Games, you have planned a war in Ukraine from February 22, but it will not happen (see paragraph 1), do not forget to shoot yourself!
      3) if Biden goes on a provocation in Ukraine, then Putin’s plan C1 will work - depending on the severity of the damage and the accusations of the Russian Federation, or the complete disappearance of this state from the political map of the world, and then the Russian Federation will no longer hold back anything , the PMR, Ossetia, Abkhazia, the Baltic states will also disappear - everything will become a single space with the Russian Federation (plan C1.1), or the restoration of the LDNR within the boundaries of the regions and istanbul-1 instead of minsk-3 (plan C1.2)
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 10: 53
        0
        Not quite right.
        21.02.22/XNUMX/XNUMX - recognition of the republics.
        22.02.22/XNUMX/XNUMX - ultimatum of the republics.
        After non-fulfillment of the ultimatum within 1-3 days, liberate the territory of the republics - war.

        There is a tiny chance that the territory of the republics will be liberated and also a small chance of a military coup in Kiev.

        So the war will begin from 23.02.22/26.02.22/XNUMX to XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX (depending on the conditions of the ultimatum).
        Well, I see the results more modest. LDNR will become part of the Russian Federation. Transnistria is recognized. Ossetia will be reunited. Two or more states on the territory of the former Ukraine. Neutral or friendly to Russia. Further, I do not see any territorial changes in Europe.
  15. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 08: 24
    +1
    Quote: Volkonsky
    I have a slightly different plan B, this is the forceful coercion of the United States to peace

    What is the criterion of coercion in the world? How do we know that this goal has been achieved?
    Will you tell us about it and we will need to believe you?
  16. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 08: 29
    +3
    Quote: Volkonsky
    The ultimatum has already been fulfilled, and we haven't even bargained yet! States already agree to sign the INF Treaty, which will nullify the threat of Tomahawks in Poland and Romania and hypothetically in Ukraine

    To promise does not mean to marry (c).
    Russia was promised a lot.
    At the moment, there is not a single fact, not a single signed document, indicating that the ultimatum has been fulfilled.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 09: 59
      0
      everything has its time, you forgot to ask when to sign!
  17. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 08: 33
    +3
    Quote: Volkonsky
    And the reformatting of Ukraine will take place in a slightly different way, and not in a military way. For the military is a dead end!

    You have already promised to tell how exactly this reformatting will take place. But they didn't tell.
    Haven't figured it out yet?
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 09: 38
      -2
      you will find out in the next text
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 10: 42
        +3
        In the next text I will know what I will learn in the next text, what I will learn in the next text... winked
        And there are no clues.
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 11: 08
          0
          you need to read more carefully, I already gave them above (Istanbul-1), I will decipher it in a couple of days, there is nowhere to run
  18. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 14 February 2022 08: 38
    +2
    Quote from andreyserdtsev
    No one expected what would happen in Georgia in 2008, in Crimea in 2014 or in Syria in 2015. It is strange to expect that now the GDP will do what its opponents expect from it.

    Putin has unexpected moves, which is why Bidon and his team are burning in one place, I’m generally silent about Europe, and there are almost no thinking politicians left there.

    Moreover, he himself muddied the whole story.

    And this is where it gets the most annoying.
    I think that the main actions will be in Syria, they will erase the places where the Yankee bases are located and kick everyone from there, and then it will be said that this threatened the security of the Russian troops and there will be a fat hint to Europe, those who have NATO bases near our borders. But then perhaps the Russian army will begin to restore order in the square. While the can and Europe will digest what happened in Syria (demonstrative flogging)
    1. andreyserdtsev Offline andreyserdtsev
      andreyserdtsev (Andrei) 14 February 2022 08: 57
      +3
      And this is what is most annoying

      I agree. In previous times, GDP reacted to the actions of opponents, this time he forced them to react.
  19. gla172 Offline gla172
    gla172 (Sergei) 14 February 2022 08: 40
    0
    .... Plus to the author ... An interesting article ... Say "Caribbean crisis 2.0"? ....
  20. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 09: 33
    0
    Quote: The Fourth Horseman
    because there are thousands of examples where the "simplest" explanation will not be the most correct.

    Well, yes, you are right. There are thousands of negative examples. A million positives.
    However, I'm not trying to convince you. Or someone else. I record my conclusions and then look at what has come true and what has not. I am not interested in theoretical discussions.
    1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 15 February 2022 06: 34
      +2
      Interestingly, if I wrote that there are a million negative examples, would you answer with a billion positive ones?))

      The inconsistency of the Occam's razor rule is justified by the impeccability of the Succubi's razor method, the framework of which allows one to enter into them the incidents of Occam's razor, the independent existence of which is thus defined as redundant. Unlike Occam's razor, Succubi's razor is a method in the direct meaning of this concept, that is, an extended set of tools located at the meta-level, endowed with universality insofar as it can be used to effectively solve any task of a particular level.
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 06: 53
        0
        Woe from Wit (c)
        1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
          Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 15 February 2022 07: 04
          +2
          In addition to those already mentioned, there are also Hanlon, Mitzgol, Alder, Hitchens razors ....
          Do you want to discuss?))
          1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 07: 32
            0
            Do you sell these razors?
            Do you have Russian-made razors? To a couple of movements, ... and no head on the neck!!
            1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
              Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 15 February 2022 08: 04
              +1
              — Listen, Associate Professor! Need to be swept up. The doctor will drip into the police!
              - Do not drip! I’m her ... that ... with a razor across the throat ... she lies in the well, you can see)
  21. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 09: 37
    0
    Quote: The Fourth Horseman
    What, in fact, makes this methodological principle completely useless and has nothing to do with real scientific knowledge

    Why doesn’t it surprise me that you didn’t understand anything from the commentary?
    There was a phrase about scientific knowledge Meanwhile, there is a rule that theories should be built on the basis of facts.
    But you didn't notice it. You are not attentive, to put it mildly smile
    1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 15 February 2022 06: 27
      +1
      Einstein is like, well, yes, yes. I went to...
  22. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 February 2022 09: 54
    -2
    Well, when the next promised deadlines pass, there will be no war, (and there will be political trade) ...
    ... then all the experts-authors will pretend that they did not promise anything, or that they personally (with GDP together) so scared everyone with their brilliant forecasts that personally because of them (well, GDP helped a little) the war was canceled. )))

    As it was in 19 and 20, when experts promised and promised attacks, but Ukraine took it and did not come to the war .... (and everyone pretended that they did not predict anything)

    breaking news, what to take ...
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 10: 21
      -1
      1) there will be no war in Ukraine, these are all decorations designed to hide the agreement between Biden and GDP
      2) if the 1st point is the fruit of our fantasies, then Biden has plan C - the war in Ukraine, the GDP has plan B - the war in the SAR, but it began only after the OI and after the strategic nuclear forces exercises (the exercises will be such that the whole world will sit down, I think that after them the states will do everything), the beginning of the triad exercises after the Olympic Games
      3) if Biden goes on a provocation in Ukraine, then Putin’s plan C1 will work - depending on the severity of the damage and the accusations of the Russian Federation, or the complete disappearance of this state from the political map of the world, and then the Russian Federation will no longer hold back anything , the PMR, Ossetia, Abkhazia, the Baltic states will also disappear - everything will become a single space with the Russian Federation (plan C1.1), or the restoration of the LDNR within the boundaries of the regions and istanbul-1 instead of minsk-3 (plan C1.2)
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 February 2022 12: 25
        -2
        What a blood lover you are.
        It seems like your 1 and 2 points confirm the comment.
        It's a deal, but the media crave bloodshed, they need to pump it up for payback.

        And item 3 - then the kids are provoked to "weakly", and everyone else realizes that there are a lot of players.
        Some go to an agreement, others interfere with them (or they provoke for maneuver and better conditions).
        SBU, FSB, Psektor, sports nutrition sellers, Amer’s nuclear submarine, a bunch of flying helicopters near the borders, dad with his shooting, volunteers from Chechnya, Poland from sea to sea)))) (directly echoes
        "everything will become a single space with the Russian Federation"), Endogan or China .... - there are many lovers of logging in troubled waters ..
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 12: 36
          +1
          no blood is shed in exercises
          while the blood is only in the media
          there are only two players, the rest are spectators, some spectators believe that they are also players, they will be disappointed
          you better take care of yourself, politics, apparently, is not for you if sports nutrition sellers are still dragged here
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 February 2022 13: 14
            -2
            There is nothing to object to in essence, if you get personal.
            1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
              Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 14: 03
              0
              what were the complaints? I haven't seen them yet! Let's not pollute the Internet!
              1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
                Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 February 2022 17: 22
                -2
                What are these claims?
                At first, they mostly agreed, then they politely began to be rude.
                "politics, apparently, is not for you, if everything is exaggerated black and white for you (childish maximalism, it seems, is called)
      2. gene1 Offline gene1
        gene1 (Gennady) 14 February 2022 13: 35
        -1
        But can the amers base in the SAR be a hostage.
        If the United States commits a terrible provocation in Ukraine that the Russian Federation will have to get involved, then the base will be wiped off the face of the earth.
  23. Savin Offline Savin
    Savin (Savin) 14 February 2022 09: 59
    -1
    The most likely plan is according to which, out of a sense of self-preservation, they will ask us for help, like the Kazakhs. But this must be brought to reason, reasoned with.
  24. Vladimir Mantsurov (Vladimir Mantsurov) 14 February 2022 10: 03
    -10
    The weapons phase of the hybrid war in Ukraine will begin on February 22.02.2022, 2024, and will end in XNUMX with the strategic defeat of Russia

    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 14 February 2022 10: 59
      +3
      Quote: Vladimir Mantsurov
      will end in 2024 with a strategic defeat for Russia

      Uncle, well, who will watch this long nonsense? If you have looked, please tell me what is considered a strategic defeat for Russia according to this source of wisdom.
    2. Valery Bor Offline Valery Bor
      Valery Bor (Valery) 14 February 2022 11: 34
      +1
      Another predictor is an expert from under the sofa ...
  25. AND Offline AND
    AND 14 February 2022 11: 34
    +2
    Quote: Vladimir Mantsurov
    The weapons phase of the hybrid war in Ukraine will begin on February 22.02.2022, 2024, and will end in XNUMX with the strategic defeat of Russia

    Video from the series ... I started watching, after 3 minutes I laughed for a long time, I got bored for another 1-2 minutes, turned it off.

    On February 22.02.2022, XNUMX, the war may begin, but it will definitely not end with a strategic defeat for Russia.
  26. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 14 February 2022 13: 14
    -3
    I'll chime in here too. Back in 1996, the State Duma denounced the Belovezhskaya Accords, of which there is no original left. De jure, the Soviet Union is alive and all the disassembly on the territory of the USSR is an internal affair of the Soviet Union, for that matter.
    About the fact that it would be nice to make a nightmare of the Hegemon in Syria so that his defenselessness becomes obvious to everyone, I already once wrote in the comments. Perhaps that is how it will happen.
    At current rates, it will no longer make much sense to limit ourselves not only to Zapukria, but also to Eastern Europe in general. Here or pan or gone. Either completely squeeze the States out of Europe, or in a NNth number of years they will restore their military predominance in Europe, and then, together with sanctions and other surprises, they will crush Russia.
    Russia needs a Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, free from the influence of the States, only in this case peaceful coexistence on the continent is possible, otherwise the States will constantly provoke conflicts here.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 14: 13
      -9
      About the fact that it would be nice to make a nightmare of the Hegemon in Syria so that his defenselessness becomes obvious to everyone, I already somehow wrote in the comments

      It is convenient to nightmare it with the high level of consumption of Russians, the flow of affordable modern goods, the hard ruble, and excellent modern healthcare. Modern balanced armed forces. Everyone knows this. But no one knows how to implement it.

      Russia needs a Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, free from the influence of the States, only in this case peaceful coexistence on the continent is possible, otherwise the States will constantly provoke conflicts here.

      And what can the Russian government offer, for example, to the Portuguese, whose standard of living is beyond our reach?
  27. bobba94 Offline bobba94
    bobba94 (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 13: 46
    0
    I read the article, read the comments and remembered from the novel "War and Peace": "... Die erste kolonne marschiert, die zwein kolonne ......."
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 14: 09
      -4
      Yes. The war starts all of a sudden. From confusion, confusion, from shortages, and an acute shortage of cold-blooded and competent bosses.
      1. bobba94 Offline bobba94
        bobba94 (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 21: 30
        +2
        That's for sure ..... I could, instead of the novel "War and Peace", cite as an example the film of the 30s of the last century "If there is war tomorrow" ..... Everything is clear and competent in the film, but in life it turned out .. ... confusion, confusion and an acute shortage of competent military leaders .....
    2. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 14: 11
      0
      more from now on...
      1. bobba94 Offline bobba94
        bobba94 (Vladimir) 15 February 2022 13: 15
        +1
        This is not for the author of the article. This is my personal attitude to such situations ....... Experts, analysts, commentators ..... a lot of people give calculations, calculations, forecasts, analyze, someone is cautious, someone categorically asserts .... And then everything happens in a completely different scenario ......
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 15 February 2022 15: 13
          +1
          so this is the whole point - everyone is wondering what Putin will do and no one knows, although he has a clear plan and he follows it. And the unknown scares me the most. Putin knows how to pause.
  28. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
    Oleg_5 (Oleg) 14 February 2022 14: 05
    0
    Sharing everything in Syria to solve the problem of NATO non-proliferation?!....
    Only if only in the sense of an indicative and demonstrative example of possibilities.

    So it’s quite possible to do this without driving landing ships to Tartus.
    And what's more - it has already been done - with a volley of missiles from the ships of the Caspian flotilla.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 14: 34
      0
      yeah .. right now I see how a volley of calibers kills 2 thousand rangers, 1 caliber per 1 ranger
      here we need a ground operation by forces of the dshb
      but I’ll tell you a secret that all this can be a false landing, the main target will not be in the sar, but in the 404th, how did the RK Varyag with the BOD Tributs end up in the SPM? they were supposed to be in the Seychelles right now on a friendly visit, how did RK Ustinov with BOD Kulakov and Admiral Kasatonov end up in the same place in the SPM? they should have been firing off the coast of Britain now, you also already know FSE about six large landing ships

      it’s just trouble with this Putin, intelligence agent, he confused everyone! beautiful!!
      1. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
        Oleg_5 (Oleg) 14 February 2022 14: 39
        -1
        The ground operation was again rehearsed and demonstrated by a lightning-fast transfer to Kazakhstan.

        Of course, I want to be wrong, but .... it’s all too small, somehow as a threat to the hegemon.
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 16: 01
          0
          I think so too
          but it's a set of threats
          what matters here is not force, but the threat of its use, it sometimes acts much stronger than the force itself
          right now I see how Biden swam, and Putin has not applied anything yet, he is only silent
          This is what scares me the most!!!
  29. Sten_2 Offline Sten_2
    Sten_2 (Alexander Zabolotsky) 14 February 2022 14: 51
    0
    Well, in general, yes, it looks like they are trying to force Ukraine to Minsk. Refusal to fly is what a blow to the economy and their self-consciousness!
    In Ukraine, they talked so often about the war with Russia that they got used to it being simple. And here on you - they equated it with Syria and its war.
    They are trying to get out there, they say, we will insure the planes ourselves, but, nevertheless, it seems that the United States has taken them seriously.
    And it looks like the United States will then declare itself the savior of Ukraine when there is no war and life is restored. But with guarantees of non-entry into NATO
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 16: 04
      0
      Sasha, there is also a naval blockade looming
      Ukraine itself has already offered written guarantees of its non-entry into NATO
      and Zelensky sent his wife and children to Italy
      do you feel?! something will happen!
  30. Savin Offline Savin
    Savin (Savin) 14 February 2022 15: 20
    +1
    On the example of Kazakhstan, a person was shown how to get out of this. At stake is a family, work in a specialty, and more. Use cheat sheets. Everything else is noise. And we will always help.
  31. shiva Offline shiva
    shiva (Ivan) 14 February 2022 20: 49
    0
    Volkonsky as always on top. I'll add a little from myself - a good picture from Ozerov's epic film "Liberation".
    The Kursk Bulge, the cadres of how everyone is concentrating forces, intelligence reports - such and such a date, time. Zhukov gives the order - counter-preparation! He is asked - and if not? - shoot at the bushes?
    And then, after the shooting, silence - so that the Germans will not go on the offensive? We were wrong? - The war machine is launched and the offensive will be! Zhukov says.
    So I have the feeling that the orders have already been given, the military vehicles are running. Nobody wanted warriors, but today's chess is already alarming.
    At the same time, our intelligence has all the data - the LDNR sees everything perfectly from its territory and the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrive to them even faster than to Zelensky.
    I wonder if Milli will call Shoigu? Or vice versa?
  32. Savin Offline Savin
    Savin (Savin) 14 February 2022 21: 15
    +1
    About the articles. I liked the first two three. I was waiting to read. Further thinner, unfortunately.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 14 February 2022 21: 44
      +1
      Do you read all the books from the end?
      if I knew the buyback, would I live in Sochi, is your motto? I don’t know how it will end, I just review and analyze, I can even make mistakes, but my last name is not Globa, he is a floor above, I just reason and give facts on the basis of which I draw my conclusions
      do you have any complaints about the buttons?
      the first two or three scored 75-100 thousand readers each, and the fifth - a million with a long tail, fools, probably, read the wrong thing and screen others
      the best was the first, the second was also nothing, in the third he explained the reasons for the anxiety of the GDP, the fourth was so-and-so, he went over Biden’s motives there, the fifth became a millionaire, Putin gave weapons in the next two or three, but the last two or three articles were already independent, outside the cycle, they gave a snapshot of current events, and I'm not ashamed of them
      1. Savin Offline Savin
        Savin (Savin) 14 February 2022 22: 15
        +1
        Suffered ... Well, if you are mistaken ... it's time to give up.
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 15 February 2022 01: 02
          +1
          who to give up? Russians don't give up! Do I have "Weather Forecasts" written on the door? The hydrometeorological center is a floor above, next to Globa, if you don’t like something, you don’t have to read it, I don’t force anyone, your expectations are your problems!
          1. Savin Offline Savin
            Savin (Savin) 15 February 2022 18: 10
            +1
            But you still don’t deny that you are in the same building with Globa and the Hydromedical Center! This is an ungrateful business. 50/50 yes or no. And I also remembered the episode with the sale of an old car from the movie Brother 2. Smiles. offends. The process of searching for truth.
            1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
              Volkonsky (Vladimir) 15 February 2022 19: 03
              +1
              we are all in the same building called Earth
              I have already explained here to some comrades who call themselves expert forecasters that I do not do forecasts, I analyze facts and try to build a logical picture from them, sometimes this is an erroneous version, but I try to consider all options, discarding the unlikely ones. That's all! They try to guess, becoming victims of their predictions.
              I started writing this text, believing that Plan A was a failure, it was the fruit of my fantasies, Biden did not agree to an agreement, but ended it by seeming to agree, and Putin simply gives him the opportunity to save face, knowing in advance how everything will end . These are personal observations - Putin is very calm and relaxed, even smiling. It only says that everything is going according to plan. According to his plan! There will be no plan B. Biden agrees to plan A. He will turn everyone in to save America. Already passed! Right now you are watching the documentary registration of this transaction.
              I have only presented Putin's arguments in my texts. They are concrete! But without them, my evidence base would not be a channel. Unlike charlatans-forecasters who do not reveal the cards on the basis of which they draw their conclusions, I play openly. You all expected some sensations from me. I don't have them for you, because Putin doesn't have them. Enough for Biden and verbal interventions. His generals explained to him that Putin is not joking or bluffing. They're in trouble right now. In full swing! And it is better to yield in a good way than in a bad way.
      2. Archangel Offline Archangel
        Archangel (Denis) 15 February 2022 00: 09
        0
        What forces does the US have in Syria? And how and with what will they be nightmares?
    2. Charisma Offline Charisma
      Charisma 15 February 2022 00: 11
      +1
      You know, I do not always and in everything agree with the author, but, as one charming anecdote said, "there is a nuance." His articles invariably cause heated discussions, a lot of comments and they are read. Try again :)
  33. Charisma Offline Charisma
    Charisma 15 February 2022 00: 22
    0
    Good evening. I get the feeling that the leadership of Ukraine is now actively and forcibly persuaded to something. Either to the implementation of Minsk-2, or to the beginning of hostilities on the line of demarcation. Moreover, it is not we who incline, but our respected “partners”. Obviously, both options are complete bullshit in terms of prospects for the state of Ukraine. There is no good choice, it's zuzwang. Zelensky resists as best he can, but he will not last long in this position. The denouement is close. I'm more for the "war" version. Minsk is too profitable for Russia. Too good to be true.
    1. Archangel Offline Archangel
      Archangel (Denis) 15 February 2022 00: 36
      +1
      Too little information and too much speculation. I don't like it all
    2. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 15 February 2022 01: 06
      +1
      they persuade him to surrender, they want him to abandon NATO, London has already supported this idea
      a mare with a cart - it's easier for a woman!
  34. Rumen5252 Offline Rumen5252
    Rumen5252 (Rumen) 15 February 2022 06: 05
    -8
    First, almost half of the comments are from the author himself. This means that the author failed to explain his views in the main text, and therefore needs to clarify what he wanted to say. Secondly, the author is clearly an old man living in the times of the USSR, and thinks that there is still an "indivisible" USSR with its "invincible and legendary" Red Army. Old man, wake up, the USSR is no more, like your army. The army of the Russian Federation is now a pale shadow of what the army of the USSR was. Thirdly, Putin is now in a cruel zugzwang - no useful move. That he is going to do something in Syria is a fantasy of a white mare. It is in Syria that Russia is so crushed by Turkey, not to mention the United States, that without Iran it will not blow its nose. The only thing Putin is thinking about now is how to turn around without losing face in the international arena (Putin is not at all interested in the opinion of the Russians, he despises them). So Putin's plan is now to show that he is still worth something. He played in the bank and lost. Everything else is nonsense.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 15 February 2022 15: 20
      +1
      I won’t even comment on this - my comrade lives in a parallel reality, advises everyone here to visit a psychiatrist, it feels like he has a lot of experience, go away already sickly - it’s time to take medicine, otherwise Putin will attack, and you’re not ready, don’t forget the wooden automatic machine under the bed
    2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 15 February 2022 17: 46
      -8
      Secondly, the author is clearly an old man living in the times of the USSR, and thinks that there is still an "indivisible" USSR with its "invincible and legendary" Red Army. Old man, wake up, the USSR is no more, like your army. The army of the Russian Federation is now a pale shadow of what the army of the USSR was. Thirdly, Putin is now in a cruel zugzwang - no useful move.

      Exactly! good good
  35. Rumen5252 Offline Rumen5252
    Rumen5252 (Rumen) 15 February 2022 06: 36
    -6
    https://topwar.ru/190182-neprostoe-buduschee-rossijskih-udarnyh-bpla-o-prichinah-stagnacii-otrasli-zavisimosti-ot-importnyh-komplektujuschih-i-konceptualnom-tupike-nashih-dronov.html
    Before you write, you must read, you have a great need.
  36. The comment was deleted.
  37. Rumen5252 Offline Rumen5252
    Rumen5252 (Rumen) 15 February 2022 06: 46
    -7
    I am a big supporter of Putin
    Russian companies began to refuse loans due to the threat of sanctions
    And if anyone thinks that China will lend to Russian companies, go to a psychiatrist.
  38. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 07: 03
    +1
    Quote from Charisma
    Good evening. I get the feeling that the leadership of Ukraine is now actively and forcibly persuaded to something.

    On the fifth day of his imprisonment, the Vigilant Falcon discovered that there was no fourth wall in the prison.
  39. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 07: 10
    +1
    Quote: Volkonsky
    I already see right now how Biden swam, and Putin has not yet applied anything, it’s just that he is silent and scares the most !!!

    Poor Biden could not sleep, could not eat, because he did not know why Putin was silent. For days on end, Biden gnawed his ties, periodically hid under the bed and, just in case, changed dry diapers. Putin's silence frightened the old man more than nuclear war and sclerosis. Biden changed his citizenship to Portuguese and acquired shares in Gazprom.
    But Putin remained silent.
  40. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 15 February 2022 09: 25
    -2
    The minimum chances for the implementation of plan "A" still remain (no more than 2-3%), but they asymptotically tend to zero.

    It seems to me that the agreement nevertheless took place: Ukraine will be divided. The US base in the SAR is held hostage: if the Americans abandon Ukraine, the base will be wiped off the face of the earth.
  41. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 15 February 2022 10: 07
    0
    Quote: gene1
    The US base in the SAR is held hostage: if the Americans abandon Ukraine, the base will be wiped off the face of the earth.

    What are you, what are you. What is the base in Syria? Hostage California. A 200 Mt bomb was planted under it.
    They demanded 100 billion dollars and a plane to Nicaragua. Oh, he didn’t say that - they demanded the liberation of Ukraine from the Tatar-Mongol yoke and make D. Trump the president of the United States.
  42. The comment was deleted.
  43. Savin Offline Savin
    Savin (Savin) 15 February 2022 21: 31
    0
    Why touch the amers in Syria, which is far away. It’s more useful in Romania, Poland, the Baltic states, and Ukraine at last. boor, no matter what it was like for others. Two steps to the left, two steps to the right, one step forward and two back. Well, the fascist will not understand the exhortations that it is not good to kill.
  44. Sergey stalker Offline Sergey stalker
    Sergey stalker (Sergey Romanchenko) 15 February 2022 22: 40
    -1
    In my understanding, to announce an ultimatum means to bang your fist on the table. But I have not yet seen anyone hit the table with their fist or even raise their voice.
  45. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 16 February 2022 03: 25
    0
    Quote: Volkonsky
    I don’t do forecasts, I analyze facts and try to build a logical picture out of them, sometimes this is an erroneous version, but I try to consider all options, discarding the unlikely ones.

    prognosis, prognosis, husband (Greek prognosis - foreknowledge) (book). Prediction about the development and outcome of some events, phenomena based on available data. Forecast of the political situation. Weather forecast (s)

    The author writes articles. And the fact that he himself does not understand what he is doing is not important. They read, comment - it means the work is done. And the expectations of readers, according to the author and A. Arshavin (football player), are the problem of the readers (spectators) themselves. For example, I expected that a person with a higher education knows what the word "forecast" means, but the author is not to blame here. It's just my high expectations.
  46. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 16 February 2022 03: 29
    0
    Quote: Volkonsky
    These are personal observations - Putin is very calm and relaxed, even smiling. It only says that everything is going according to plan. According to his plan! There will be no plan B. Biden agrees to plan A. He will turn everyone in to save America. Already passed!

    The author's evidence base is perfect. Now, if Putin were to cry on the air, then the author would think that Plan A probably didn’t work. And so everything is clear! Victory!!
  47. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 16 February 2022 03: 42
    0
    Quote: Volkonsky
    I have only presented Putin's arguments in my texts. They are concrete! But without them, my evidence base would not be a channel. Unlike charlatans-forecasters who do not reveal the cards on the basis of which they draw their conclusions, I play openly.

    There is only one annoying little thing. The author constantly writes that we won, but does not specify what this means. Well, yes, he writes that someone promised something to someone. Yep, no trading.

    The author also writes that if Biden does not kneel, then something terrible will happen and Biden will regret it. The author again does not specify what terrible thing will happen.

    The author constantly promises that in the next article he will write something specific. However, all smart people guessed that the author was just waiting for the denouement, so that later he could say that everything happened as he predicted.

    And "charlatan forecasters" write about expected events. Specifically. But, scoundrels, do not reveal where their forecasts came from. And therefore, when their predictions come true, you should not believe them - they just guessed.
    Unlike the author, who provided a huge amount of facts and arguments that can explain any result.
    1. gene1 Offline gene1
      gene1 (Gennady) 16 February 2022 15: 52
      0
      Kuzhugetovich arrived in Syria. What will you do if the main blow is there?
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 16 February 2022 16: 13
        -3
        Will the secretary of defense personally lead an infantry assault on American bases?
        Oh, the Americans are probably changing diapers again. Poor things!
      2. Savin Offline Savin
        Savin (Savin) 16 February 2022 20: 17
        0
        Well, what are you all Syria, Syria, a blow to the amers, like children. Our ships are there so that the geyropas in the ass, sorry, itching. No matter what they make sudden movements. be marked by a meeting with our GC.
  48. Bahadur Offline Bahadur
    Bahadur (Stanislas) 16 February 2022 21: 44
    0
    Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Will the secretary of defense personally lead an infantry assault on American bases?
    Oh, the Americans are probably changing diapers again. Poor things!

    - is the expert onaliteg not yet tired of criticizing the articles of Vladimir Volkonsky for any reason?
    - try it yourself, write something even more interesting than about your wife, who wanted to live in the city of paris)))))))))
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 17 February 2022 02: 32
      -3
      Quote: Bahadur
      - is the expert onaliteg not yet tired of criticizing the articles of Vladimir Volkonsky for any reason?

      Not tired. And the name of the author of the article (or even without the author) is not important to me.
  49. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 17 February 2022 02: 41
    -3
    Quote: Bahadur
    - try it yourself, write something even more interesting than about your wife, who wanted to live in the city of paris)))))))))

    Funny point of view.
    Then why are the readers of this site discussing the actions of politicians, etc.?
    Have many of the commentators worked as presidents, prime ministers, generals, oligarchs?

    I'll think about writing. There is experience.
    It’s just that I don’t have any good ideas for articles in my head right now. That's why I don't write.
    Unlike many authors who suck articles out of their fingers. Well, yes, I understand, for them it's a job.
    Thank God I make a living differently.
  50. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 17 February 2022 22: 46
    +1
    ... everything is very logical. Well done Wolf, a worthy analysis and quite suitable as a scenario.
    The only thing, I think, you consider Zelya in vain to be such a silent lamb put to the slaughter - it seems to me that she’s still a bastard and he’s just trying to play his game in all this, but since such role-playing games are clearly beyond his abilities, it turns out the way we see it....
  51. Bekchan Offline Bekchan
    Bekchan (Bechan) 18 February 2022 15: 13
    -1
    The article is an excellent analysis of the current situation in the world and specifically in Ukraine. Thanks to the author.
  52. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 18 February 2022 16: 36
    +1
    But isn’t the puzzle growing together into a picture that Putin will surprise the world precisely with smooth actions, according to the situation? And not militarily active preemptive actions. An ultimatum is to seize the initiative. Probably, it is necessary to speculate in this direction. What are the advantages of the ultimatum: - there is no attack on the LDNR, - the world thought: maybe the Russians are not so wrong in demanding security for themselves, - the graters between the countries of the West appeared even more, .... That is. there will be no attack on the amers base in Syria, nor on Ukraine, nor mud with Latinos.
  53. opportunist Online opportunist
    opportunist (dim) 18 February 2022 17: 26
    0
    we must act on our enemy's greatest fears, deepening cooperation with China, deploying the Russian Navy in the South China Sea, and developing Russian military bases in Latin America
  54. Savin Offline Savin
    Savin (Savin) 18 February 2022 21: 52
    0
    The abscess has matured and requires an autopsy. Otherwise, we lose face. It’s time to stop chewing snot and finally show our capabilities. Well, it’s a shame and inconvenience for the citizens of a great country to listen to yet another deep concern about the fact that some undereducated people are wiping their feet about us, and who let me in for an appointment. And what do the citizens of the LDNR, who have our citizenship, think. Probably so that they would not be abandoned. And then they climb out of their skin so that they would not think anything bad about us and geyropa. Yes, who will believe us later ...
  55. Misha Kvakina Offline Misha Kvakina
    Misha Kvakina (Misha) 20 February 2022 18: 16
    0
    If we don't die, we will see!!! A kick from Syria to the United States would be great.... Then Iraq will think well about putting American advisers on the "fifth point of support"??!! And this will greatly reduce the influence of the Americans in the Middle East .... Yes, and the Turks will shudder from this !!!
    1. Savin Offline Savin
      Savin (Savin) 20 February 2022 18: 30
      0
      A kick from Ukraine to the United States would be great ... Then Geyropa will also think about the fifth point of support. And the Turks won’t twitch. Learn the lessons. Use cheat sheets