Few people here believe in the war in Ukraine. But in vain! I myself did not believe in it literally until the last day. I was even ready to bet that this would not happen, proceeding from the fact that neither Moscow nor Kiev needed it (when else have we observed such a unity of views?).
Nobody wanted war, war was inevitable
В previous text I put two markers by which it was possible to judge the further continuation of events. First marker was leaked (or not leaked) to the press of the US response to the Kremlin to provide him with written guarantees of his safety. The appearance of such documents in the press meant that an agreement could not be reached, Moscow was burning the last bridges and hopes for a peaceful resolution of the crisis and moving on to a military scenario. The reverse option (not draining) still left some hope that a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the so-called plan "A", is possible. Second marker was the implementation (or non-implementation) of the Minsk agreements by Kiev. The refusal to implement Minsk-2 finally buried Plan A (an agreement between Moscow and Washington) and forced the Kremlin to resort to forceful resolution of the conflict (the so-called Plan B) - forcing the hegemon to peace by military and military-technical methods (what no one knows until now!).
As a result, both markers collapsed this week. Who leaked the US response to the press is no longer so important, the main thing is that the document was exposed. And Kiev's refusal to discuss the issues of the return of Donbass with representatives of the self-proclaimed republics finally put an end to the Minsk agreements. Everyone who saw with their own eyes the final press conference of Kozak and Yermak following the results of their Berlin negotiations in the Normandy format understood everything already from the expression on the faces of the main negotiators. At a time when Yermak, in his drunken move, was bleating something sadly about his hopes for the continuation of the negotiation process, Kozak, with a stone and extremely tired face, stated in plain text that the 9-hour negotiations had reached an impasse due to the fault of the Ukrainian side and those who supported its Germans and French.
Now I would not be in a hurry to wipe my feet on Yermak's comrades and on the German and French negotiators. Macron did everything he could to preserve the peace agenda, having made a blitz tour along the Paris-Moscow-Kyiv route this week and holding unscheduled negotiations with top officials of the Russian Federation and the 404th. It is clear that the reason for this was the upcoming presidential elections in France in April and Macron’s desire to crown himself with the laurels of a peacemaker, but I do not at all rule out the sincere desire of the French president to propose his plan for resolving the conflict, which was based on the idea of finlandization of Ukraine. And I saw with what hope he looked into Zelensky's mouth at their joint press conference, waiting for words of support from him for his plan. But in vain! Zelensky might be happy to support him, but who will let him do it?! He is an absolutely obnoxious man. As did all of his retinue. The kindest-hearted grandfather Joe holds him by the throat with an iron grip through detachments of fascist thugs hiding behind the banners of nationalist patriots, sitting on the suction of the SBU, and through it on the suction of the CIA and the US State Department.
Zelensky would be happy to sign Macron’s plan and even fulfill his promises to Putin two years ago (at the last Normandy Four summit in Paris in 2019), but only the fear of repeating the fate of Ceausescu and his wife does not allow him to do this. Zelensky goal like a falcon! He has no power resource, for his life, as well as for the life of his wife and children, no one in Ukraine will give even a broken penny. As soon as he dares to do something past the will of his white master, they will immediately give the command "face" and I'm not sure that he will live, like Ceausescu, to a military tribunal, and will not be hung upside down on the first tree near his house . And Yermak will hang out next to him. Involuntarily, you will bleat like a sheep during the negotiations.
Who decides fate in Ukraine became clear after the recent YouTube blocking of two opposition channels to Zelensky, which had previously been sanctioned by the National Security and Defense Council. If in his country Zelensky can do what he wants (within the limits of what is permitted by the white master), then he has no power outside of it, and he definitely cannot tell YouTube who to block and who not. But maybe his overseas owner. And in the run-up to his Plan C, he doesn't need anyone's mouthpieces to challenge Washington's point of view about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, in addition to Viktor Medvedchuk's five already closed opposition TV channels (112 Ukraine, ZIK, NewsOne, UkrLive and Pershoy Nezalezhny), Evgeny Muraev's last opposition channel NASH was recently added. Grandpa Joe is all set to implement his Plan C. And from today the countdown has begun. Therefore, as sad as it is for me to admit it, Plan A seems to have been covered with a copper basin (if it even existed, and was not a figment of our fantasies). As soon as the threat of the implementation of the Kremlin's Plan B loomed in front of the White House, Grandpa Joe immediately activated his Plan C to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Where, according to his plan, Russia will also be drawn through provocation, which will instantly pull along the whole complex of pre-prepared measures that provide for sanctions, a trade embargo and an Iron Curtain-2.0.
The minimum chances for the implementation of plan "A" still remain (no more than 2-3%), but they asymptotically tend to zero. Why such sad conclusions? Everything is very simple - for a banal masquerade, everything has gone too far. I can still believe in the cover operation in the information sphere and the evacuation of the embassies of 15 US satellite states, but the facts of massive deliveries of lethal weapons in the last decade of the past and the first month of this year tell only one thing - the States are not joking. These thoughts are suggested by deliveries in the fall of 2021, mainly under an additional military aid package (allocated by the United States in August), of ammunition for small arms and infantry weapons of Western calibers. For three months, 1,266 million cartridges of caliber 12,7 x 99 mm, 2,309 million cartridges of caliber 7,62 x 51 mm, 572,8 thousand cartridges of caliber 5,56 x 45 mm and 14860 cartridges of 12-caliber, as well as shots of caliber 213248 x 40 mm for automatic grenade launchers. At the beginning of 53, these deliveries were continued, although the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not have weapons of these calibers in significant quantities (deliveries of 2022 units of 200-mm Mk 40 grenade launchers were made only in January 19). Note that these are all BCs of the NATO standard, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have weapons for it, from which follows the primitive as a shaft conclusion that in the near future it is planned to mass transfer American small arms of these calibers to non-brothers. Grandpa Joe was obviously going to fight for more than one day, as they say, to the last Ukrainian of any nationality (and rightly so, why feel sorry for them?).
Deliveries of the rest of the BC from the allies, including the antediluvian American FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank systems and the Swedish slightly newer NLAW one-time counterpart, as well as the American FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS that proved themselves during the war in Afghanistan, however, in a newer DMS modification , (designed for 2 missiles and having radar support), I suppose they were carried out solely for the purpose of disposal, for which the non-brothers will also pay. These deliveries of man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems will not make the weather in Ukraine and will not change the existing balance of power, I assume that they were made rather with the aim of whipping up psychosis and to divert the eyes of their own population and bargain with the Russian Federation.
What can not be said about the airlift to Europe of the most elite American units of the Rapid Reaction Force. The 82nd All-American Airborne Division, whose brigade was transferred from Fort Bragg (North Carolina) to Romania, as well as the 101st Air Assault Division, whose brigade was transferred from Fort Campbell (Kentucky) to Poland, are part of the 18 76th Airborne Corps, whose command has been transferred from Fort Bragg to Germany, from where it will direct the ground operations of the Rapid Deployment Forces in Europe. This is the most seasoned elite of the US Armed Forces, who went through a lot of wars and armed conflicts (something like our Pskov and Ryazan paratroopers of the 106th Guards Airborne Division and the 4th Guards Airborne Division), which, together with the XNUMXth mechanized "ivy" infantry division, whose brigade of "iron horses" was deployed from Fort Carson (Colorado) to the Polish-Ukrainian border, will be able to quickly solve the most complex tasks assigned to them by the command.
And they will have one task, when / if Putin’s Buryat horse-diving divisions invade the territory of Nezalezhnaya, they will have to cross the border within an hour and take control of the western enclave of Ukraine, limited by Lvov, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnitsky and Chernivtsi regions (these are the Carpathians and Bukovina, mind you, Transcarpathia is not there, because the Hungarians do not share the views of their senior comrades in NATO). That is why Western diplomats race with each other and transfer their consulates and embassies there. Sergei Kuzhugetovich is aware of these American plans, and he will do everything to prevent this from happening, because our plans do not include seizing the Left Bank and Central Ukraine and giving the Poles and Romanians Western Ukraine. What difference does it make to Putin where the US missile bases will be located - near Kharkov or near Ternopil, in principle they should not be there!
And although we are not going to invade anywhere, everything is planned in advance in the plans of the General Staff. If we are forced to do this by bungling up another provocation, which I expect in the next two or three days (moreover, it will not necessarily be Donbass, it could be Crimea, and even the territory of Nezalezhnaya, where they will undermine, for example, the cascade of the Dnieper dams and accuse we are in this), then we will not stop in the Donbass. Putin does not need this scanty stub, if we take it by force, then the entire Nezalezhna - to the Polish, Hungarian, Slovak and Romanian borders. What difference will it make to us even then, if we are still subject to sanctions for the very “I don’t want to”. Although, so that you do not have any illusions, sanctions will be included in any case, no matter what we do, we will still get them. This is not a matter of place, but of time. Now they're just looking for a reason. And so that they would have fewer reasons, we fenced off the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, including the Kerch Strait, in advance for the duration of the exercises and missile firing starting on February 13, so that the non-brothers would not have an irresistible desire to drive some of their rotten longboat to the Krymsky ram bridge with the sole purpose of dying the death of the brave somewhere on the outskirts of it.
For other purposes, the SPM assembled an unprecedented power grouping of the Russian Navy, which includes three Project 1164 Atlant missile cruisers, two of which are the flagships of their fleets (RK Moskva - Black Sea Fleet, RK Varyag - Pacific Fleet, and RK "Marshal Ustinov" is simply inferior in these indicators to the flagship of the Northern Fleet TARK "Peter the Great", two large anti-submarine ships - BOD "Admiral Kulakov" (SF) and BOD "Admiral Tributs" (TOF), both projects 1155, and four frigates - heavy frigate of project 22350 "Admiral Kasatonov" (SF) and three light frigates from the Black Sea Fleet of the admiral series of project 11356R - "Admiral Grigorovich", "Admiral Makarov" and "Admiral Essen". All ships are carriers of missile weapons, including subsonic cruise "Caliber", supersonic anti-ship missiles "Onyx" and hypersonic winged "Zircons". Two anti-submarine torpedo and missile anti-ship and anti-aircraft corvettes of project 20380 "Resistant" and "Savvy" (now passing Gibraltar) are also going there from the Baltic weapons (sama e armed ships in their class).
The aircraft carrier Harry Truman, hanging around in the SPM, with cover ships, which includes the missile cruiser USS San Jacinto, the destroyers USS Bainbridge, USS Cole, USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, as well as the Norwegian frigate Fridtjof, already felt uncomfortable. The flagship of the 6th Fleet of the US Navy, the command ship USS Mount Whitney, has already left, however, it was replaced by the Ohio-class multi-purpose nuclear submarine SSGN 729 Georgia with 154 winged Tomahawks on board. But in principle, there are enough of our submarines there (six brand new diesel-electric submarines of project 636.3 "Varshavyanka" of the Black Sea Fleet with "Caliber" on board). As you can see, Sergei Kuzhugetovich thoroughly prepared for the meeting. At the same time, we ourselves are not going to attack anyone. But we will fight for peace in such a way that it can leave no stone unturned. Grandpa Joe was also informed about this, and he is waiting with horror for the start of our large-scale exercises, which will involve the entire nuclear triad of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation, air, sea and land-based at the same time. This has never happened before in the history of the Russian Federation. Seeing Biden's preparations for war, Putin moved the start of the exercises planned for the fall to February. Something will! It will be so hot that I'm afraid someone will get burnt.
Putin's task is as simple as a day. Since Biden's plans are already clear - grandfather wants to organize a massacre in Ukraine and draw the Russian Federation into it, hanging all the dogs on it, he has already announced the date, which means that we need to kill his card with our own. We cannot avoid going to war, if the Donbass is touched, then we will intervene in any way and we will not stop there, we will go to the end (the experience of Tbilisi in 2008 taught us a lot). But again, this is not at all in our plans. How to escape from this trap? What can Putin do against Biden's Plan C? Oddly enough, my plan "B", which I already писал. If Biden is waiting for us in Ukraine and has already prepared everything for this, then he should not be given such pleasure. Watching how the non-brothers get burned, Grandpa Joe from across the ocean can for a long time and with great pleasure, it's not like he burns. So, it is necessary to make it so that it burns with him. Do not play his part doomedly according to the notes, but impose your own on him. And for this, Putin has everything ready too. Otherwise, he would not have come out at the end of last year with his ultimatum, putting forward demands that cannot be met, and it is also impossible to refuse to comply without an intelligible answer.
Transition from Varangians to Greeks
And so that Grandpa Joe had no way to get away from the Kremlin’s proposals, on a gray January morning at the beginning of 2022, three large landing ships immediately sailed from the base of the Northern Fleet Severomorsk from the wall - the Pyotr Morgunov large landing ship (project 11711), the Olenegorsky miner large landing ship "And the large landing ship" George the Victorious "(both project 775) and quietly moved to the west at low speed. At that time, no one paid much attention to this fact until, having rounded Norway from the north, they entered the Baltic Sea through a series of straits on January 13, alarming all the Swedish Moremans there, who strengthened their posts on the island of Gotland because of this. But the detachment of the BDK SF did not pay attention to this and on January 15 moored at the wall of the port of Baltiysk, where at that time three other BDK were loading and preparing for the exit, this time of the Baltic Fleet - BDK "Minsk", "Korolev" and "Kaliningrad" (all projects 775, Severnaya Verf, Gdansk, Poland). Nobody knows what they were loaded with (military secret!).
On January 17, Western monitoring resources recorded this group of ships at the exit from the Baltic Sea, when they, having passed the Øresund Straits (separates Denmark and Sweden) and Skagerrak (separates Denmark and Norway), entered the North Sea. A day later, in the same place in the North Sea, a group of BDK SF joined them, which also loaded something to the eyeballs in Baltiysk, after which they slowly moved west in two groups. All except Pyotr Morgunov, which had a larger displacement, almost scooped on board on the move, cruising at a speed of 18 knots in the direction of the British Isles, where the reconnaissance ship Vasily Tarpishchev joined the group. After that, all NATO resources began to follow the detachment of landing ships that followed without combat escort. The fact that this was an unplanned exit is evidenced by the fact that two BDKs of the BF - "Minsk" and "Korolev" had just returned from a long trip two weeks before, to two days later go on a new, even more distant one. Let me remind you that it was just the height of negotiations with NATO and the United States, when Deputy. Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Grushko has already promised the "partners" in case of non-fulfillment of our demands, retaliatory measures of a military and military-technical nature. The Caribbean Crisis 2.0 smelled distinctly in the air.
The “partners” quietly swelled up from such words and began to follow the group of our BDK even more closely, fearing that they would turn towards Latin America. We all, too, clung to the radar with enthusiasm. I already predicted that in Baltiysk the BDK was taken on board by the 152nd Guards Rifle Brigade (Chernyakhovsky Iskander Brigade) with R-500 cruise missiles as ammunition, one salvo of which is 24 KR, the radius of destruction of which no one knows for sure (here are the Americans on their own skin and find out how far our Iskander-K fly). But things didn't turn out the way they wanted when, having crossed the English Channel, the BDK detachment turned south. Now the Ukrainians began to guess about the purpose of the campaign. But their happiness was waiting for them a little later, when six BDK, having unloaded in Tartus (SAR), headed for the Black Sea.
Yankees, go home!
Putin again confirmed the worst fears of our potential adversary about him, answering asymmetrically as usual. American and other sworn “partners” who barked at him were waiting for him in Ukraine, domestic members of the circle of pseudo-science fiction lovers expected to see him emerge from the depths of the sea or, at worst, emerge from space, but he again surfaced in the wrong place and hit the wrong one. When the consolidated detachment of the BDK of the two fleets departed from the wall of Baltiysk and headed west, it became clear that it had begun ... That damned plan "B" of the GDP entered the final phase. Biden was waiting for Putin in Ukraine, he had already lost his voice, scaring everyone with his threat, and he had prepared gifts for him in Syria, where fellow Americans obviously sat for an extra couple of years, and even in the most oil-bearing province, without having any authority to do so.
Biden wants to see how Russians and Ukrainians kill each other, warning in advance that the Americans are not going to participate in this, but will see something else, after which the exit from Afghanistan will seem to him like a fairy tale about a white bull. At the same time, please note that we act exclusively on legal grounds. The representative of Syria to the UN Security Council has already filed an application with a request to consider the issue of the illegal presence of the US military in the territory of the SAR. Do you think it happened by chance? I do not think so! He who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind. Storm in the desert! Take seats in the stalls, it will be very interesting. Now Grandpa Joe is competing with the evil projectionist of the Kremlin, who will be the first to start showing his movie. Biden has already sold everything for his tickets in advance. Only, I'm afraid, I'll have to return the money due to the absence of the two main actors.
And to all Ukrainian “heroes” who dream of tasting the power of Russian weapons, I advise you to urgently grow beards and sign up as volunteers for the Syrian front. Putin once again, contrary to the promises of Blinkin and Co., will not come to the war with Ukraine, and will start a military campaign where he is least expected. The Americans explained the postponement of Putin’s attack on the 404th by an unusual mudslide for winter, forgetting that Russian tanks are not afraid of dirt, and were horrified by just one division of our Iskanders at the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Allied Resolve-2022”, I imagine that they are waiting for when the exercises of our nuclear triad begin simultaneously on a vast territory from the Kuriles to Plesetsk, and from the Barents and White Seas to the Black and Caspian, and under the roar of this cannonade the Syrian campaign starts. I think Biden will definitely not be up to Ukraine then.
Abduction of Europa
But, nevertheless, I would not be in a hurry to accuse Grandpa Joe of bloodthirstiness. After all, Putin, with his ultimatum, left him practically no other option. After all, the war here is far from over Ukraine. She's just a pawn, a bargaining chip. Europe is at stake, and who will milk it in the future. Stupid Europe may even understand this with its spinal cord, but it cannot do anything, all self-defense reflexes are atrophied as a result of 70 years of colonial rule, all the ruling elites have degenerated and degraded and are doomed to lead it to the scaffold.
The head of the Foreign Office, the deaf-and-deaf and mute tanker Elisabeth Truss, who recently visited Moscow, surprised even Sergey Lavrov, who had seen the sights. Apparently, the laurels of Margaret Thatcher haunted her all her life, until she rode on the main battle tank of Britain's Challenger on the Estonian training ground a few kilometers from the border of the Russian Federation. Apparently, at the same time, she was covered with a hatch, because in a conversation with Lavrov, she questioned the belonging of the Voronezh and Rostov regions of the Russian Federation and, in all seriousness, suggested that Sergei Viktorovich reduce (not withdraw, namely reduce!) His military units on the border with Ukraine (confusing him , probably with Minister of Defense Shoigu). So is it any wonder after that that such and similar people are doing everything to bring Russia under sanctions, after which the whole of Europe risks being left without gas. “Then what will you heat? Putin asks. - Firewood? So for firewood, you also need to go to Siberia!
Although the Anglo-Saxons can still be understood, their pink dream is to unleash a slaughter in Ukraine by proxy and lower the Russian Federation, and with it the snickering Europe, into the Middle Ages. After that, take over the EU states that are falling apart under the inevitable Russian sanctions and parasitize on their corpse for another couple of centuries. The fact that Ukraine itself will descend into the Stone Age does not bother anyone in London and America at all. The operation is called the abduction of Europa.
What will happen to Ukraine, I will tell you next time. Nobody is going to fight for her, she will go to the winner of the duel between the USA and the Russian Federation automatically in the form of a free application. Although I do not lose hope also for the implementation of plan "A". If an agreement between Putin and Biden did take place, then we are all participants in a large-scale swindle, or rather spectators, they are participants. But in any case, there is only one intermission left before the end of the performance, and in the near future we will find out how it all ends. If there was no agreement, then both main actors will compete for the right to play their own movie for us. Biden's premiere is scheduled for February 16. Putin is still silent about the date.