New tactical aspects of the Cold War will not allow it to quickly develop into the Third World War


The global confrontation between the "great powers" in the XNUMXst century is acquiring new forms that correspond to the spirit of the times. The ways of influencing a potential adversary have changed. “Nuclear rattling” and the mobilization of front-line groupings of troops threatening a full-scale offensive are a thing of the past. They finally gave way to the participation of the "great powers" in regional conflicts on different sides of the barricades, the encirclement of enemy territory by means of suppression in the air, water, underwater and outer space and aggressive trade wars under the guise of economic sanctions.


The build-up of "conventional weapons" takes place through a race of high-tech weapons, the effectiveness of which on the scale of a really big war is debatable due to their small number. Civil defense programs have been abandoned in the United States, China and the Russian Federation, normal maintenance and strengthening of the network of bomb shelters and bunkers is not being carried out. Large countries are content with the modernization of strategic aviation, created at the end of the XNUMXth century. Many samples of ultra-modern weapons are created not with an eye on waging war, but on the basis of ideas about their commercial, export attractiveness.

On the one hand, this shows the moral and technical the unpreparedness of large countries to wage a full-scale war with the seizure of territories, on the other hand, sharply increases the danger of using tactical and strategic nuclear weapons in the event that other "arguments" are exhausted.

Assuming that the share of national income spent on the Cold War is limited to spending on the military, it appears to have declined since the Cold War of the 1980th century. So, in the early 7s, the United States spent about 3,7% of GDP on military purposes, and today it is only 1970%. China, according to some estimates, spent about 6% of the budget on defense in the 2s, and now it is 2,8%. Modern Russia spends XNUMX%, which is clearly lower than the USSR. Moreover, in the XNUMXst century, the leading states have huge social and infrastructure budgets compared to the last century, and are also burdened with large amounts of public debt.

However, it does not follow from this that fewer national forces and resources are being spent on the Cold War today. The fact is that informatization, computerization and internetization of society and the state have created conditions for the full emergence of new fronts - technological and informational, which are considered political almost key strategists. The costs of counteraction on these fronts are not always fixed in military budgets. And in Western countries, they are largely tied to private technology giants.

Technology front


Technological confrontation is conducted in two directions, dictated by the very device of computer technology: microchips and software products. It is difficult to imagine what kind of collapse awaits some countries if they are completely deprived of microprocessors, operating systems and the most standard computer programs. And this is quite possible, since the production of these products is monstrously monopolized, and most of the programs are connected with manufacturing companies via the Internet. There is no doubt that, for example, Microsoft or Apple are technically capable of infecting all Windows computers, all computers, smartphones, watches on macOS and iOS with a paralyzing virus in a certain area. The same cannot be ruled out for Intel and AMD processors, which are installed in the vast majority of devices. Western countries, through the free market and the extreme monopolization of production, have achieved an impressive technological superiority, which can become a powerful new weapon in their hands. Assange and Snowden's revelations have already shown how peaceful and seemingly innocuous technologies are being used by intelligence agencies.

China, using its position as the largest manufacturer of computer equipment, has already developed and is implementing a strategy to undermine the technological monopoly of the West. But the successes of the Chinese are still insignificant. Russia, unfortunately, does not have a single global technological monopoly, it is completely dependent on imports of foreign high-tech products, which are of key importance. Providing Russian weapons, space technology, nuclear equipment with modern "stuffing" is significantly dependent on imports. This constrains the country's foreign policy and military-strategic maneuver in the face of a tough confrontation with the West.

Information front


The political models of modern states in the XNUMXst century have evolved significantly in terms of the strength and stability of state institutions. On the one hand, modern institutions of the state have grown to a huge scale, acquired police features and exercise total control over all spheres of society, on the other hand, their repressive potential has significantly decreased in acute moments of crisis. Governments today are more easily overthrown than ever before, the police and the army are helpless in the face of more or less massive unrest and protests. A hundred years ago, it was difficult to imagine the “color scenario” typical of our days, when a small camp in the center of the capital could lead to a complete failure of power. Those who have studied the revolutions of the past know that then the struggle was much more stubborn, bloodier, more organized, and the social crises that led to a change of power were deeper and more extensive.

Under these conditions, the ideological indoctrination of the population, the formation of public opinion and the control of the mindset of the masses are of great importance. The freedom of movement of information due to the Internet and the global entertainment industry (movies, games, music, network culture) has become global. Today, from America, one can easily influence the worldviews of Russians, and from Russia, the views of Americans.

Moreover, the level of political literacy among current generations, compared with the past, not only has not increased, but has also degraded. The relatively stable and justified ideological concepts and formulas capitalism/socialism, left/right, patriotism/cosmopolitanism, nationalism/internationalism have given way to vague agendas and fruitless debates about “human rights” and democracy. The West shouts that they have the most democratic democracy, China claims that its democracy is much better than the Western one, and Russia echoes that democracy should not trample on the traditional and cultural values ​​of the people. In the political consciousness, the important (what is the economic model of the country, whose interests the government serves, etc.) has been replaced by the secondary and far-fetched (the rights of sexual minorities, ecology, feminism, freedom of expression).

On the information front, there is a war of compromising information and meanings, the struggle of who will convince whom more strongly that the opposite side is a greater evil. Truth and scientific analysis have completely ceased to interest both politicians and ordinary people.

The purpose of this struggle is to destabilize public opinion, incite contradictions in the enemy camp. Of course, most of these contradictions quite objectively exist or have an objective social foundation.

Due to the general decline in the stability of political regimes, the accumulated social problems in each country, a strike on the internal problems of a potential adversary with an "information weapon" seems extremely promising. Therefore, large resources are used by all parties on the information front. Moreover, such seemingly distant spheres as diplomacy, state policy in the field of culture and art, and professional sports are gradually subordinated to the information front.

The West also has a number of significant advantages on the information front, since corporations such as Google, Facebook, WarnerMedia, News Corporation, The Walt Disney, ViacomCBS, NBCUniversal have a tremendous influence on the formation of public consciousness not only in the West, but throughout the world. . In the West, a discipline for the introduction of ideological attitudes has been developed in detail - Public Relations, which is widely used in working with public information.

China is using a defensive strategy of network sovereignty, informationally shielding itself from the Western Internet and Western media. Russia is gradually leaning towards a similar model.

These two new tactical aspects of the Cold War in the XNUMXst century, and the importance attached to them by the parties to the confrontation, gives the world a chance that the Cold War phase will drag on without developing into the Third World War in a short time.
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  1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 10: 31
    -4
    China is using a defensive strategy of network sovereignty, informationally shielding itself from the Western Internet and Western media. Russia is gradually leaning towards a similar model.

    Diplomats and media workers in the West work more efficiently, respond more quickly to changes in the situation in the information space. The constant superiority of the West in technical and technological capabilities also plays a role, and most importantly, managerial flexibility and efficiency, a colossal ability to select and place personnel, and use social elevators.
  2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 10: 35
    -4
    Moreover, the level of political literacy among current generations, compared with the past, not only has not increased, but has also degraded.

    The high level of consumption of the inhabitants of the West plays a decisive role. The wide availability of goods, and their quantity. We lose to him in this, especially after 2010.
  3. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 13 February 2022 10: 52
    +2
    In fact, our elite is simply afraid to come forward. Just simulates "breakthroughs"

    All accusations come after similar ones from the West, for show, and are quickly forgotten. The quality of the propaganda is disgusting. All propagandists have long become memes because of their lordly, polished faces and unfulfilled forecasts-justifications.
    Videos against H are of low quality, despite the high salaries of the official haters of the Unmentionable, laid out on display.

    In general, everything is stolen.
    Slow cuts, accidents and consequences due to theft - even in the defense industry - often flash.
    Naturally, China does not want to have anything to do with this approach. Supply gas, timber, other and hare.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 11: 58
      -4
      Obviously, the tradition of not admitting mistakes continues, especially publicly. But there is no mistake, there is a guarantee of its repetition. There is no Russian RAND Corporation. Serious public analytics will hurt the interests of "authoritative people."
    2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 13 February 2022 16: 45
      -5
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      Naturally, China does not want to have anything to do with this approach.

      Do you think differently in China? The example of Bo Xilai tells a different story.
      https://www.epochtimes.ru/content/view/62016/4/

      The study says, citing statistics from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, that more than 18000 party and government officials fled China between 1990 and 2008 with more than $123 billion in stolen money. The funds were typically channeled to the US, Canada, Australia and the Netherlands through offshore bank accounts or real estate investments.

      They are the ones who set up the great Chinese firewall for their citizens, while they themselves prefer an apartment in South Kensington. All autocracies are similar.
      1. Fourth Offline Fourth
        Fourth (Fourth) 13 February 2022 20: 30
        0
        Do you think differently in the US? We are just learning from them.
      2. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 February 2022 09: 10
        -2
        I don't live in China. Not particularly concerned.

        If you want, I can sympathize.
        123 billion against .... how much did Brezhinsky say??? 800 taken out of Russia
    3. North Offline North
      North (Vera) 13 February 2022 23: 15
      0
      What is called - the keyhole well expands the worldview ....
  4. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 February 2022 11: 31
    0
    There is an element of ambiguity in this analysis. Disabling operating systems is entirely possible. But such a shutdown means an actual defeat in the information war.
    How to ideologically influence the population of a country (say, Russia) when the country is disconnected from social networks? China doesn't actually use Facebook or WhatsApp. What are the possibilities of Western influence on Chinese society? Actually zero.
    There is also a moment of technological connectivity in the production of microchips and other components. Manufacturers of Intel and AMD processors are critically dependent on supplies from China and Russia.
    The globe has become small. And "Bolivar can't stand two". But I wouldn't discount the weapons of the 20th century and the policy of "big battalions".
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 12: 02
      -5
      Manufacturers of Intel and AMD processors depend to varying degrees on the PRC, and on Russia. Russia provides them with raw materials and simple blanks.

      But I wouldn't discount the weapons of the 20th century and the policy of "big battalions".

      When the economy is weakening and the military-industrial complex is degrading, it is impossible to maintain the combat readiness of "big battalions". And weapons and weapons will remain in the last century.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 February 2022 12: 39
        0
        When the economy is weakening and the military-industrial complex is degrading, it is impossible to maintain the combat readiness of "big battalions".

        Do you want to consider the inverse relationship? Russia is restoring "big battalions". The states and NATO countries are not able to support the army and the military-industrial complex. The inflated military budget does not give an idea of ​​​​the REAL combat capability of the army.
        1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
          gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 15: 36
          -5
          Russia cannot restore regiments, battalions, brigades, or divisions. Without mobilization, without significantly increasing the birth rate, without significantly reducing the number of those unfit for the charms of conscription / contract service, without significantly reducing the number of convicts of military age, leaving the healthcare system in its current form.
          The constantly cut Russian defense budget gives an idea of ​​the real combat readiness. Frustrated state armaments programs. One year of conscription service is worth something, and landslide continuous reductions of officers, ensigns, and contract servicemen.
          Constantly shifting deadlines for the readiness of the transfer of products to the customer, reduction of production plans.
          The United States and NATO are uniting for this, acquiring vassals in order to distribute the financial burden and the technological burden on enterprises. At the same time, sanctions deprive the Russian military-industrial complex of profitable Western loans, investments, and technical innovations, advanced materiel for the creation of modern weapons.
          Russia cannot acquire vassals. Due to the lack of an attractive economic model.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 February 2022 16: 16
            +1
            I read it and, as usual, decided not to pay attention to the opinion of an "expert" in all areas.
            70 or 100 BTGs on the border of Ukraine and Belarus leave no stone unturned from your passages.
            1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
              gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 18: 00
              -5
              BTG is an ersatz unit, temporary. Appeared not from a good life. A temporary organizational measure that emerged as a short-term one under the Moscow Region S. Ivanov. Yes, and rooted. Serdyukov and Makarov tried to fight BTG in 2008-2012. Yes, they did not overcome it. The contract program does not work. It works when the contract is renewed again, for the third time, and beyond. As in the USA, for example. Or in France. Parts of constant readiness in the Russian Ground Forces were never born. BTG for eyewash. With full-scale hostilities, the BTG will suffer losses. They will be understaffed with conscripts. Since all the more or less sensible contractors have already been crammed into the BTG. 70 and 100 BTG is to rub glasses like you to simple-minded citizens. In Belarus and in the Western Military District, by the way, there is a shortage of logistics units. You greatly lack communication with the military.
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 February 2022 19: 48
                +1
                You greatly lack communication with the military.

                How many stupid colonels I have seen... I could have planted an oak grove. Who commanded on the "green whistle up."
                I say that you are a "specialist" of a wide profile. You understand almost everything. Aviation, Navy, ground forces, logistics, planning, politics, economics. You just marvel at such a wide "knowledge".
                If the Russian army is so weak, then the West has absolutely nothing to fear. One left will do. Napoleon and Hitler and a bunch of their predecessors thought about the same.
                1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
                  gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 23: 15
                  -4
                  The Russian Armed Forces and the military-industrial complex are not being destroyed by stupid colonels. Colonels do not have corresponding rights and powers.
                  The West is afraid, but somehow unusual. He responded rudely to the proposals of the President. It continues to stuff the Armed Forces of Ukraine with expiring ammunition. Effectively wields sanctions, deprives the Russian economy of investors. Withdraws capital from Russia by the hands of his henchmen among Russian
                  owners and businessmen. Withdrawed $2022 billion in January 12. That is, sales of oil and gas have an insignificant positive effect on the size of the state budget of Russia. Pushes Russia into an arms race that cannot be sustained.

                  Napoleon and Hitler and a bunch of their predecessors thought about the same

                  RI was destroyed without Napoleonic efforts by the Romanovs. The USSR was destroyed by itself, 46 years after Hitler's death. We'll soon see what final Russia has.

                  Basically, you have nothing to say. You mindlessly repeat other people's slogans about some battalions, about the military-industrial complex, about combat readiness.
                  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 February 2022 00: 23
                    +2
                    Practice is the criterion of truth. Basically, there is no point in arguing with you. For my part, I see that you are endlessly repeating mantras about the inferiority of power in Russia. I'm not a big fan of ANY power. But the one that is now is the best of what has been over the past 40 years.
                    About the battalions and combat readiness will be known only by the results. God forbid that this does not have to be checked. But today I see a fairly high combat readiness and mobility.
                    By the way, I ignored your passage about international cooperation in military equipment. If you think about it, this is just the height of double standards. If Russian equipment depends on imported components, then this is bad. And if the F-35 consists of 40% imported components, then that's great. By the way, the States produce Abrams tanks in huge quantities. Already 1 (one) piece per month. And over the past 40 years, having swelled several billion into development, nothing new has been created. This is to the question of the effectiveness of the military-industrial complex.
                    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
                      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 11: 19
                      -4
                      It will be necessary to check the real level of combat readiness, the effectiveness of the reforms of the Russian Armed Forces. Thanks to the hard efforts of intelligence officers, media workers, diplomats of NATO countries. About large battalions and so clear. They pulled people from the Eastern and Central districts, already understaffed. Based on the fact that the Japanese defense forces will not imitate preparations for a landing operation on Sakhalin and the Kuriles. There can be no high mobility with reduced military transport aviation manned by aged aircraft. An example is the recent operation to transfer 3200 military personnel to Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan). Compare it with the operation to transfer the airborne division in December 1979. Then the new Il-76.
                      For many foreign companies, cooperation with the US military-industrial complex is a dream of a lifetime. This is how American diplomats, intelligence officers, and journalists arranged it. The Russian Aerospace Forces do not have many of the technologies implemented in the F-35. Such as an AFAR radar, a God's eye helmet, an engine, composite materials, a single information space, new ammunition. Russian new torpedoes Fizik (non-hose-type remote control, without fiber optic cable) and UET-1 (without remote control) in scanty quantities, with the performance characteristics of the American Mk48 model 1978. And so on.
                      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 February 2022 11: 45
                        +2
                        There can be no high mobility with reduced military transport aviation manned by aged aircraft.

                        A clear rejection of the facts
                        https://topcor.ru/24021-rossijskaja-armija-pobila-vse-vozmozhnye-rekordy-po-massovosti-perebroski-vojsk.html

                        Once again for the stubborn. The task of colonels and generals is to competently conduct operations. Their maximum is operational tasks. Strategic operations and, moreover, war are not their level. The value of technical parameters and the number of troops does not matter in the conduct of war. Not some private operations, but wars. They are of some importance, but not the most important.
                        Considering the war as a confrontation between STATES, the war has already been going on and has been going on for more than a year. And I still don't see that the West is winning. Rather, on the contrary. But "chickens still have to be counted in the fall." So everything is still uncertain. But your "knowledge" in the field of performance characteristics does not convince me of anything at all. Your knowledge in the field of politics, war aims, state administration is below average.
                      2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
                        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 11: 56
                        -4
                        The colonels (staff operators) prepare the plan of operation and the decision of the commander. And it is approved by their direct and immediate superiors. Strategic plans are prepared similarly.

                        The value of technical parameters and the number of troops does not matter in the conduct of war.

                        This is good news for the Central Bank of Russia. And for fans of A. Kudrin. Wars and consist of many private operations.
                        The fuse brought Russia to such a level that the former Soviet republic became its enemy. And at the same time, Russia lost its allies. And he is the judge, the West. He decides when to fight, when to put up. He is quite satisfied with the position of Russia as a raw material rental country, with export capital. With the import of everything and everyone. It's just that the West needs to be given a little over the ears for a little boyish rudeness. State administration, even if it was satisfactory, would not have led to today's collapse. In domestic and foreign policy. You forgot about the six-year trampling of dung on the Syrian bridgehead.
                      3. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 February 2022 12: 01
                        +2
                        I said it's useless to argue. We speak different languages. And no translator will help here. You think in terms of a narrow "specialist". True, I do not consider you as such, but it does not matter. Goals and ways to achieve goals are not available to you. What is management too. I knew a lot of "leaders" who "cannot be trusted with a cat." But for some reason they considered themselves smart people.
                        You really want to see the defeat of Russia

                        It's just that the West needs to be given a little over the ears for a little boyish rudeness.

                        This phrase alone is enough to understand the level of your thinking. Once again, your level is below average. But you probably won't understand it.
                      4. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
                        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 14 February 2022 12: 19
                        -5
                        I knew a lot of "leaders" who "cannot be trusted with a cat." But for some reason they considered themselves smart people.

                        That's where they lead. Decades.

                        The West does not plan to smash Russia. The Russian, albeit poor, domestic market is important to him. And as a reliable supplier of raw materials, the Russian government is doing quite well. A little lost coast, rude. For which he will receive, slightly, on the ears.
                        The defeat began in the late 70s. And his process continues. Changing forms.
                      5. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 February 2022 12: 20
                        +1
                        The discussion is over. Your ideological profile is quite clear to me.
      2. North Offline North
        North (Vera) 13 February 2022 23: 51
        +1
        Oh, but I’m thinking, where did the Ukrainians and Ami get such a well-established impudence in assessing the combat capability of our army? - you, apparently, are fulfilling this role of an informant, coupled with the same ones who "have enough communication with military personnel." Those officers who are really worth something in terms of information will not breed idle chatter even with relatives. A husk in uniform is not allowed to receive information by definition. And - in any case - a smart and standing man in the networks will not only chew on this topic, but will not even get involved in a conversation with such an "expert". But it's not about you. And what are you really trying to achieve? To show oneself or to inspire others that everything is bad with us - can't it get worse? Here, they say, look what Putin has brought the country and the army to! All cartoons show you! So, are you a talker or a network agent of influence?
        1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
          gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 23: 53
          -4
          Read the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper carefully, watch the Zvezda TV channel carefully. Do not neglect conversations with military personnel. Try on less caps of the 1905 model. With which the Japs were thrown.
    2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 13 February 2022 18: 56
      -6
      For combat-ready, against the backdrop of developed Western states, motorized rifle (airborne, marines) units of a formation, association, at least 70-80% of recruits should come into the army already being trained motorized riflemen. With solid skills in handling light and heavy small arms, tactical and engineering training. And after military service, they should be able to maintain the acquired skills and knowledge at regular training camps at the same 70-80% level. Otherwise, after a couple of years in civilian life, people will need to be taught anew, for which, "if tomorrow flares up," the best methodologists of the Armed Forces, mowing from the front line, will have neither the time nor the desire. And such a pre-conscription and after urgent training and close, is not observed. So that the officials of the Ministry of Defense do not lie about it.
  • viktortarianik Offline viktortarianik
    viktortarianik (Victor) 13 February 2022 12: 14
    0
    That is, the "cold war" has become cheaper? This looks like the truth. It is enough to break through the publication of order No. 400 in the enemy army and this army will be disunited and lose cohesion. Recently there was a discussion of this order.
  • Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 13 February 2022 12: 29
    +1
    I do not share the optimism of the title and afterword of the author.
    The tightening of the "stranglehold" of the West on our neck, connected with the approach of its shock infrastructure, takes place not in the informational, but in the good old material space.
    The benefits from the annexation by the West of the territory and material wealth of Russia also lie in it. Finally, the process of growing contradictions within the West, as well as internal debt in the States themselves, sets quite specific time frames for their resolution - in real “space-time”.
    So, the existence of a "parallel reality" does not affect the likelihood and timing of a real "third world"
  • Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 13 February 2022 12: 34
    +1
    There is no doubt that, for example, Microsoft or Apple are technically capable of infecting all Windows computers, all computers, smartphones, watches on macOS and iOS with a paralyzing virus in a certain area. The same cannot be ruled out for Intel and AMD processors, which are installed in the vast majority of devices.

    There is no doubt that in the event of the situation described, the destruction of California by nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation will prove how wrong the Americans were.
    If anyone thinks that our nuclear weapons are tied to US software and hardware, then they are fatally mistaken.

    Yeah, yeah, new tactical aspects give a chance fellow
  • Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 13 February 2022 14: 07
    -1
    There are controversial points, but there are also non-controversial ones ... but this: “.... Truth and scientific analysis have completely ceased to interest both politicians and ordinary people. ..” and completely TRUE.