How Putin can avoid the imposed war in Ukraine

Epigraph: "Be realistic! Strive for the impossible!” (Che Guevara)


I have no doubt that the events of late 2021 - early 2022, which we are now witnessing, just like the Caribbean crisis 60 years ago, will fall into the history books. I doubt only the title. Well, let it be called "Ukrainian crisis". The only difference between it and the Caribbean is that 60 years ago all the events unfolded in real life, Soviet diesel submarines surfaced right in front of the US ship warrant that blocked the path of Soviet dry cargo ships, following with incomprehensible cargo to Cuba, although we all know that in the holds "Aleksandrovsk", "Artemievsk", "Nikolaev", "Dubna" and "Divnogorsk" R-14 missiles and warheads for them were stockpiled, and on the upper decks were our servicemen dressed in civilian uniforms with skis (I'm not kidding about skis at all , masquerade for cover). Back then, in the fall of 1962, the world was dangling a step away from thermonuclear war, and now the whole war is taking place only on the pages of American and European newspapers and in electronic gadgets of an American and European layman unprepared for this, snickering and swollen from covid.

But when all three American Boeing E-4 Doomsday jets take to the air, and the US nuclear forces are put on high alert, and President Joe Biden orders the deployment of elite units of the US Rapid Deployment Forces to Europe, you realize that virtual games have gone too far. And it’s not that we were very afraid of the paratroopers of the 82nd All-American, the “screaming eagles” of the 101st transport and assault divisions of the Airborne Forces and the “heavenly dragons” of the 18th Airborne Corps, as well as the “iron horses” of the 4th Infantry US divisions airlifted to Europe from military bases in Colorado, North. Carolina and Kentucky, these unfortunate 8 American Rangers won’t make any difference here, but an unprepared European and American layman can be brought to the highest degree of exaltation, it’s not even an hour, they will start leaving the windows of their houses from the upper floors without the help of an elevator, shouting “The Russians are coming ! Save yourself, who can!

Analyzing in past In the text of the Kremlin’s response, I suggested that the marker for us here would be its reaction to the responses from Washington and Brussels to the ultimatum presented to the “partners”. In passing on his replies to Moscow, Washington urged them not to be published. Then I suggested that if the Kremlin nevertheless publishes them, then the proposed agreement between Washington and Moscow is nothing more than a figment of our fantasies, which means that the Kremlin’s “A” plan - a peaceful resolution of the Russian-American confrontation can be crossed out and concentrated on the plan " B" - forceful coercion of the United States to peace. I did not consider other options, considering them unviable, the implementation of plan "B" could only be canceled by the implementation of plan "A". The trigger for him could be the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements by Kiev, which Washington should have forced him to do and which I didn’t particularly believe in (although, what the hell is not kidding?).

After the first since 26 negotiations in the Normandy format between the authorized representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which took place on January 2019, head of the Ukrainian delegation Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, asked Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, head of the Russian delegation, two weeks for reflection. The deadline expires on February 10, after which the Kremlin’s hands will be free and it will be able to start implementing its plan “B”, which we all look forward to (although I can’t say the same about the West, it is overwhelmed by completely different feelings). Washington could easily and unobtrusively interrupt such plans of the Kremlin with its plan “C”, unleashing full-scale databases in the Donbass and blaming Moscow for this with all the ensuing consequences (sanctions, embargo, iron curtain). At the same time, Washington has already prepared everything for this, accusing Moscow in advance of fabricating fake video documents of the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the LDNR, with “bodies” and “wounded” prepared in advance. And go then, prove that you are not a camel.

But things didn't go the way we expected. We were guided by the marker of the publication of the US response by the Kremlin. If it publishes, plan “B” is activated, if it is not published, we are waiting for the implementation of plan “A”. But none of us could have imagined that the US response would be merged into the Spanish "El País" by the Ukrainian side. No brainer that this could not happen without a team from Washington. And now let's think about why he did it, when he himself insisted on the non-publicity of the materials. To prove to the whole world that he did not make concessions to Moscow, how did he put himself on the brink of confrontation with the Kremlin, thereby pushing him towards rapprochement with China? As for me, this is a rather stupid decision. In terms of recklessness, it can compete only with crossing a freeway in the wrong place, the chances of crossing to the opposite side asymptotically tend to zero. I don't think everyone in Washington is a clinical idiot. What then?

You will, of course, laugh, but nothing else comes to my mind how to explain this by an attempt to provide Moscow with material evidence confirming that the version of the copy of the answer transmitted to it differs from the version transmitted to Kiev. In the Moscow version, there is a closed part, where Washington stupidly leaks its Eastern European "friends" under the pressure of the Kremlin's undeniable arguments, and it is precisely this part that cannot be published. This means that we hurried to bury the agreement envisaged by plan "A". Then everything that we have observed so far was nothing more than an information cover operation, and from the American side, so that Grandpa Joe would not be kicked by his own voters for leaking his former Eastern European "partners", who had not yet forgiven him for the Afghan fiasco . We, unlike grandfather Joe, have nothing to hide, we play openly, as Putin loves, the cards are dealt, opened, we checked who has the highest suit. We have! Shave, please! And if you don’t want to shave, then if you please plan “B” - peace enforcement, and by what means, Biden can only guess. Putin's significant silence on this issue regarding measures of a military nature leads Grandpa Joe exclusively to sad thoughts. But it’s still too early for us to rejoice, we are waiting for February 10, the second marker - how the Norman epic will end, (Kiev in this case plays for us, it doesn’t smile at all to fight with the best army in Europe, Zelensky can, of course, be a clown, but not a suicide) .

Read the entire list, please!

Caption: "You can get far more with a kind word and a Colt than with a kind word alone" (Al Capone)


Now I would like to dwell separately on the US response. It would seem that the goal of the ultimatum has been achieved - we offered them our initially impossible conditions (non-expansion of NATO to the east, non-deployment of medium-range and shorter-range strike weapons reaching the territory of the Russian Federation near our borders, and NATO rolling back to the borders of 1997), they rolled out their demands that are already impossible for us (the withdrawal of our troops from Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, apparently referring to the Crimea, Transnistria and Abkhazia with South Ossetia). It's time to choose a middle ground - neither you nor us, after all, this is the goal of any negotiations (to present initially inflated demands, in order to then move out to a compromise option). Moreover, in their response, they offer us such a compromise option - the resumption of negotiations on the INF Treaty, the restriction of military exercises near our borders, up to the withdrawal of them to distances that suit us, the establishment of maximum allowable distances for the approach of our military air and naval vessels , as well as the possibility of inspecting any (optional) military facilities for the placement of offensive strike weapons there. Well, what's a bad option? It's just a candy, not an offer! Transparency and openness in action. And we haven’t even started bargaining with them yet, and they are already offering us to remove our main irritant, which Putin spoke about, explaining how easily and quickly it is possible to transform the missile defense system for Tomahawk medium-range cruise missiles (with a radius of destruction 2,5 thousand km). That's it, no more medium-range missiles on the nearest approaches to us! Problem solved! Victory! By the way, it is these missiles that are the second point in the imperative requirements of our security indicated by Ryabkov, which we pushed them.

But do not rush to rejoice, good gentlemen. The devil, as they say, is in the details. Americans would not be Americans if, under the guise of benefactors, they did not try to foist a stale topic on us. The whole point is that their excellent proposal to resume negotiations on intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles has a slight refinement - including new types of weapons. Those. they offer us to reduce their obsolete "Tomahawks" in exchange for the reduction of our newest "Caliber" and "Zircons". Do they take us for idiots? Sell ​​your promising, not yet embodied in metal Development of by hypersound on already serial samplesentering our troops (we are talking about Zircon and its ground-based version). By the way, it was under such conditions that Gorbachev once cut our promising medium-range Pioneers in exchange for their obsolete Pershings. It was worse than a crime - it was a mistake! But Putin is not Gorbachev, he does not suffer from dementia! In addition, they also furnish all this with the withdrawal of our peacekeepers from Transnistria, Abkhazia and South. Ossetia (I’m even silent about Crimea already - this topic is not discussed, it is closed once and for all!).

To make it clearer, I will repeat once again - they are offering us: withdraw your troops from Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and in return we will allow you to reduce your weapons, in which you are superior to us. It's strange why we didn't agree? Sick, probably. And after that, you still ask me why Grandpa Biden went to negotiations with us? And that’s why he went because he can’t sleep when he knows that Russia can put him, the hegemon, in the position of “sic” and demand the fulfillment of any conditions, while playing with the 45-caliber Colt. “Zircons”, “Vanguards”, “Sarmatians”, “Daggers” and others - I gave you a list of these Putin toys with all their performance characteristics for a reason - Putin is not bluffing at all, and the funny thing is that Biden knows this.

After all, this is exactly how, from top to bottom, playing with their aircraft carrier strike groups, the States still talked to everyone who did not come out with a caliber. But everything flows, everything changes, and now we can bend them from a position of strength into a “squash” position, and if you don’t like it, then also move your muzzle on the parquet. But the liberal tearful under-mattress public doubts this. “What, is Putin really going to carry? - they ask, - And the hand will not tremble? I answer: “Do not flinch! Will!". To which they shrillly object to me: “A maniac, a satrap, and this at a time when we already don’t have enough money for oil, he spends our last people’s money on guns and planes.” The under-mattress public, measuring everything by the thickness of the oil layer, does not understand the main thing - there will be no guns and there will be no oil left, everything will be taken away by the kind-hearted man Grandpa Joe. The people who do not want to feed their own army will feed someone else's (who does not believe, look at Europe, which the States have in all positions, and whoever does not like it, they promise to turn off the gas, look at Ukraine patching the last lace panties - the dream of idiots has come true! ).

Operation under a false flag

In the meantime, the degree of tension in society has reached its climax. Everyone is waiting for the war. Exclusively in Ukraine. And the aggressor is already known, appointed in advance. Do you know him. Such is se la vie - who owns the media, he owns the world. The first time we encountered this was in 2008, during the war on 08.08.08, when the shelling of the peaceful quarters of Tskhinvali by Georgian troops was clearly passed off by the Western media as the shelling of Russian troops and, go there, figure out who really fired. Sergei Mikheev said that Russian propagandists were not at all ready for this at that time and even threw up their hands, how to prove that you are not a camel? The Western man in the street is still fully convinced that the villain Putin unleashed that war, although Dmitry Medvedev was the president at that time. Thank God that the chatty tie-eater Mishiko himself told the whole world that it was he who attacked Tskhinval. But then again, who knows? Most European and American inhabitants, consumers of this low-grade liquor, still live in full confidence that Putin attacks defenseless countries exclusively and purposefully during the Olympic Games. In 2008, Georgia became its victim, six years later, this fate overtook Ukraine. And now he prepared himself in a jump to Kiev under the guise of the 24th Winter Olympic Games that started in Beijing. Maniac, what to take from him?!

In advance, information is thrown into society that the Russians are preparing a provocation, ahead of time making video materials confirming the bloody consequences of the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Donbass, with a demonstration of mountains of “corpses” and “wounded”. The Mosfilm corporation headed by Karen Shakhnazarov is working, Calambia Pictures is resting. After that, you can start any military campaign, the layman already knows in advance who is to blame. If this is all thermal rockets to get Grandpa Joe out of the blow for draining Ukraine, then this is already overkill.

Maybe the White House has also taken care of this, since its talking head Jen Psaki has already taken her words about the inevitability of Russia's attack on Ukraine back, stating at the next briefing that the White House can no longer say so, since it really does not know the Kremlin's plans. Psaki explained that the wording about the "imminent" invasion was interpreted as if the US authorities knew that Putin had decided to "invade" Ukraine.


The White House seems to be pulling back, lowering the tension. Although I do not rule out the difficulties of translation. The fact is that in English the terms "impending" threat and "imminent" threat sound the same. The White House used this term in the context of a possible, approaching threat of attack, and bad illiterate translators translated it as inevitable (inevitable), what to take from them, mediocrity, let them learn the dictionary.

Meanwhile, Zelensky, having enlisted the support of the Turkish Sultan, dreams of sitting at the negotiating table with Putin, but at the same time he does not take into account the main thing - Putin does not negotiate with pianists, not on his level. Let me remind you that Sergei Lavrov, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, called Zelensky a pianist. For the pianist Zelensky, in order to negotiate at the level of top officials, it’s not a bad idea to finish at least a music school first.

Nobody wanted war, war was inevitable

Now, finally, about Moscow's plans and its possible response to Washington's plans to draw the Russian Federation into a war with its southern neighbor. Now I may say a paradoxical thing, but the last thing I expect is a war in Ukraine. With its tantrums in the media and the evacuation of embassies, the West has achieved only one thing, irreconcilable opponents - Moscow and Kiev were on the same side of the barricades, both do not want war, and therefore we have to negotiate. Even Kozak, who had previously said that he had nothing to talk about with Kiev, sat down at the same table with Yermak and discussed something with him for 8 whole hours. If this was Washington's plan, but to be fair, it is truly brilliant.

I do not rule out, of course, that a war could start there as a result of a provocation from the Ukrainian side, but I can guarantee you that Zelensky will not be behind it. He is far from being a suicide and does not suffer from self-mutilation mania either. And if we assume that plan “A” is working, and Biden, by secret agreement with Putin, is pushing Kiev to implement Minsk-2 with the subsequent reformatting of Ukraine, at least, into a country neutral in relation to the Russian Federation (such a Finnishization plan of the 404th) , then the disruption of this plan into a military scenario with the inevitable involvement of the Russian Federation in it may be the result of the game of some third forces behind Biden, most likely having a London or supranational residence permit. Then, of course, Plan C will come into play, with all the inevitable consequences for the Kremlin. I don’t think that they didn’t calculate this option for the development of the plot, and if the State Department has 18 options for the US response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, then, should have 19 plans for responding to these 18 options for Washington. I think there is a plan of action even for the invasion of the Martians on our planet, otherwise it will not be the General Staff, but a sharashka office. It is clear that the decision, in the end, is made by the Commander-in-Chief, but Gerasimov should keep in his safe the most detailed plans of our counter-actions for all possible actions of the enemy. And the concentration of our naval forces in the NPM, where an unprecedented grouping of the Navy has been assembled in the entire post-Soviet history, led by the flagships of two fleets of the Russian Federation at once, the Varyag missile cruisers (the flagship of the Pacific Fleet), Marshal Ustinov (the second ship after the flagship of the Northern Fleet) and " Moscow" (the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet), not counting the escort ships, among which there are carriers of "Zircons" and "Caliber" - this is our warning to the United States against possible reckless actions in this region by the aircraft carrier "Harry Truman" hanging around there with ships of the escort order.

Another side effect of all this hysteria deployed in the Western media is the psychological burnout of the electorate, which has already been overfed with all this swill. When every day you are shouted from every iron and refrigerator about the Russian military threat of an attack on defenseless Ukraine, you get tired of it very quickly and involuntarily begin to wonder: “Why, in general, do I need this Ukraine? Where is she and where am I? Why are we so obsessed with her, anyway? We've been carrying this suitcase without a handle for years now. Is she really what we need? Yes, let Putin already take it for himself, maybe he will overstrain, if only he doesn’t touch us! Indeed, half of Americans do not even know where this Ukraine is located. For them, it is part of Russia. Maybe she is in Siberia or in general beyond the Arctic Circle? Vaughn, Psaki recently pleased, promising to bring a US aircraft carrier to the shores of Belarus. She is not aware that the Republic of Belarus has no shores, it is an exclusively inland country. Could sustaining media hysteria without real action be part of Grandpa Joe's cunning plan? Any psychiatrist will tell you that epilepsy is very tiring, you need a quick effect. After some time, tension develops into overstrain, after which fatigue inevitably sets in, then apathy and a desire to get rid of the irritant.

I think that the desired effect has already been achieved in three months. 98% of Americans and Europeans are already dreaming of forgetting about Ukraine, like a bad dream. Biden has everything ready to implement Plan A. As, in fact, for the implementation of plan "C". And what he will choose, we will know in 10-12 days. You won't have to wait long. The marker will be the fulfillment or non-fulfillment by Kiev of the Minsk agreements. If it does, then we will destroy the Kiev regime from the inside, bringing our Trojan horse there in the person of the LDNR. If it doesn’t, we will recognize the LDNR and we will think about what to do next with this brazen mezheumochny regime. Take my word for it, Moscow still has a bunch of tools to rein in these idiots without resorting to force of arms. If the gun hung all these 8 years and did not fire, then either the old Chekhov does not understand anything about dramaturgy, or it is not a gun at all, but a dummy. We will see it in 10-12 days.

In the following text I will tell you how Putin can achieve his goal without firing a shot, as a result of which Ukraine will fall at his feet, like a free application, no one is going to fight for it, there are so many mentally disabled victims of the TV that we cannot digest such “happiness” never, exclusively self-healing under the influence of the realization of one's own uselessness to anyone and the futility of one's existence in the anti-Russia regime. This pseudo-state must itself come to an understanding of this.