Why Russia is an order of magnitude better prepared for a sanctions war than the EU


Russia has done far more to increase its resilience to Western sanctions than the EU has done to improve its ability to survive gas supply problems. This was stated on February 6 on the pages of his blog by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and policy security Josep Borrell.


In recent years, Russia has increased its resilience in the face of economic sanctions, by building up foreign exchange reserves, it has done more than we (the European Union) have done in order to cope with potential disruptions in gas supplies

Borrell noted.

He also spoke about the current energy situation in the EU and urged

urgently consider the possibility of creating strategic gas reserves in the EU and joint purchases of gas by the EU countries, which is recommended by the European Commission

Sanctions competition


The next round of the sanctions war looks more and more realistic every day. Presidents, prime ministers, ministers, as well as their advisers and assistants - today in the West everyone is threatening Russia with new restrictions. It is just right, by analogy with the socialist competition, to introduce in the European Union the discipline of sanctions competition, in which the passing banner of Russophobia will be played regularly. Poland and the Czech Republic, it will clearly seem familiar. And the Baltics are completely useful and pleasant. On the one hand, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will be able to once again demonstrate their loyalty to the United States. And on the other hand, well, finally, the deaf province of the EU will be able to at least somehow get ahead of the countries of Western Europe. But, unlike the socialist practices aimed at increasing labor productivity, the EU sanctions promises so far have nothing to do with reality. In general, a paradoxical situation develops: here "the dogs bark, and the caravan stops." Although the driver from across the ocean actively shouts “face” and urges on with a whistle and hooting.

There is no doubt that the United States will take anti-Russian sanctions in full at the first opportunity, but with the EU everything is much more complicated. The European Union today is torn apart by two conflicting feelings. On the one hand, decades of training by Washington were clearly not in vain, and at the command from the United States, many European politicians habitually act first and think later. On the other hand, there is the experience of 2014, namely the counter-sanctions that hit the EU agro-industrial complex in response to the restrictions adopted against Russia. And one does not need to be seven spans in the forehead to understand that Moscow's response to anti-Russian restrictions will not be long in coming. So the European bureaucrats have to choose between two evils: to rake from the United States politically or from Russia economically.

In the case of the EU, the desire to start another round of sanctions war looks at least stupid, especially given Europe's dependence on Russian energy supplies. Nevertheless, the European Union is still stubbornly preparing for a new economic clash with Russia. Washington curators, who are coordinating a massive information attack on our country, are obviously putting pressure on Brussels, forcing it to develop a specific plan of restrictions against the Russian Federation as soon as possible. And it will be really difficult for the Europeans to convince them. With today's United States, in fact, everything is clear, their president made a political career during the years of the Cold War and, apparently, is simply not able to think in other categories than aggression and escalation. Russia, however, is obviously perceived by him and other "hawks" from the "Washington regional committee" as not just an enemy, but an existential enemy, that is, threatening the very existence of the United States. Although in fact, if Russia threatens something, it is the injustice of the world order that has developed after the collapse of the USSR, in which one country has assumed the functions of the world policeman, judge and executioner at the same time. And the American satellites that have bred in large numbers are ready to support any of its decisions, creating a favorable information background.

Against the backdrop of this theater of the absurd, of course, Germany, the largest EU country and the “heart” of the European economy, plays a key role. The new chancellor of the country Scholz, like the whole of Germany, is actively trying to force his own strategic interests to step on the throat for the sake of political benefits. And not even their own, but extracted by Washington. After all, the ban on the launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by the FRG, which the United States is striving for with maniacal persistence, is tantamount to “shooting yourself in the foot” for the German economy. Germany will not only lose the prospect of obtaining the status of the largest gas hub on a continental scale, but will simply not be able to even ensure its own energy security. After all, the consumption of "blue fuel" in Germany has only increased recently. And at the end of this year, when the German government will close the last three operating nuclear power plants, it will grow even more. It is clear that the decision will be extremely difficult, which is why Scholz pauses for so long, limiting himself to statements that are less harsh in comparison with his European colleagues and categorically refusing to supply weapons to Ukraine. In any case, this decision is purely his and Germany's, and Russia needs to think about itself. Namely, how it will cope with the new sanctions, if they are nevertheless adopted.

Is Russia ready for new sanctions?


The readiness of the Russian economy for the introduction of new sanctions today is as high as ever. Yes, a loud statement, but the statistics fully confirm it.

First, the Russian economy is confidently demonstrating an ever-increasing export potential. The positive balance of Russia's foreign trade in 2021 amounted to $197,3 billion, which is 88,44% (or $92,6 billion) more than in 2020, according to the materials of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, published on January 7. At the same time, the export of goods from Russia over the past year increased by 45,7% at once, amounting to $493,3 billion, which also cannot but rejoice.

Secondly, in addition to trade, for macroeconomic stability, another indicator is no less, and to some extent even more important - the level of public debt. In Russia, the public debt is one of the lowest in the world and amounts to only 17,9% of GDP (hereinafter, the data of the IMF World Economic Outlook report for October 2021 are given), which distinguishes our country from absolutely all developed countries. For comparison, in Germany, the public debt is 72,5% of GDP, in the UK - 108,5%, in France - 115,8%, in Spain - 120,2%, in Italy - 154,8%, and in Japan - 256,9 ,133,3%. And this is not to mention the United States, whose sovereign debt, although it is 2022% of GDP, but at the beginning of 30 exceeded a record $XNUMX trillion in absolute terms.

Thirdly, the stability of the Russian economy was greatly enhanced by the formation and implementation of the “budget rule” instrument, according to which oil super-profits were not spent, but were added to the National Wealth Fund, allowing the creation of an additional margin of safety for the Russian economy. As a result, now Russia has not just a lot of reserves, but as many as never before. According to the Central Bank, as of January 14, 2022, the international reserves of the Russian Federation reached a historic high and amounted to a record $638,2 billion. According to the World Bank, Russia ranks fourth in the world for this indicator, after China, Japan and Switzerland. The largest European countries: the UK ($213,5 billion), France ($230,3 billion) and Germany ($267 billion) have gold and foreign exchange reserves that are several times lower than those of Russia. And even the United States lags behind Russia in terms of reserves, although in their case this is more likely due to the banal ability to print as many dollars as needed at any time. By the way, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Ukraine, about the crisis around which Western politicians and the media are literally screaming, as of January 31, 2022, are almost 22 times lower than in Russia and amount to only 29,3 billion dollars. Moreover, if Russian reserves have only been growing lately, then Ukrainian ones are declining, having decreased by more than 5% over the month. And all this thanks to the hysteria whipped up around her by the West.

Returning to the theme of the anti-Russian rhetoric of the West, it is important to note that, contrary to the false statements of Washington, no one in Russia wants war. However, it is one thing not to want an escalation, and quite another to be able to defend. And if from a military point of view, everything is predictably in order in Russia, then finances, taking into account the experience of 2014, certainly raised questions. Nevertheless, from a financial point of view, today the Russian Federation is more than ready for Western sanctions initiatives. Russia's external debt is several times lower than not only comparable economies, but also any other country in the world that is in the top ten in terms of GDP. Gold and foreign exchange reserves are at a historical peak in the entire history of the existence of the Russian Federation and are second only to China, Japan and the banking capital of Europe - Switzerland. Exports are almost on a fifty percent rise and, given the reactive growth in demand for raw materials in world markets, they will remain so in the near future. After all, if even a European bureaucrat like Borrell openly admits Russia's high degree of readiness for sanctions, then these are certainly not empty words. Russia has indeed made every effort to make its economy as resilient as possible to any shocks. And to take her "for fear" will not work. Neither the US, nor NATO, nor the EU.
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  1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
    alexneg13 (Alexander) 8 February 2022 10: 21
    +2
    Western sanctions are a pillow war and a decrease in the attractiveness of cut paper (candy wrappers) because of a puddle. The West is not capable of more, except for the hopeless LIE on its part.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 February 2022 11: 10
    +1
    Everything is relative.
    It is worth looking at the share and place of Russia in the foreign trade of European countries (about 10th) and the place and share of Europe in Russia's foreign trade.

    And Borrell is engaged in direct duties - it scares. To allocate money.
    1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
      sH, arK 8 February 2022 11: 40
      +1
      Of course, everything is relative... But there is a nuance - if there is no gas or it is very expensive, then the production of a new model of "Swiss watches" will simply become meaningless. No gas - no electricity, fertilizers, plastics. No oil - no fuel. Well, the lack of all this is already a violation of the basic supply chain, for example, no fertilizers, no grain, flour, rising food prices, a sharp drop in living standards, a drop in demand for other consumption segments. And the nuance is that raw materials - gas, oil, grain can not be taken anywhere in particular! One is difficult to transport, the second has a specific composition and requires expensive adaptation of production, the third is simply nowhere to get it !!! So, in which case, we can show the consequences very clearly. We have our own production facilities of high added value - and it's time to take care of them!
      1. Muscool Offline Muscool
        Muscool (Glory) 8 February 2022 12: 22
        -6
        What are you going to eat yourself? Look for the sake of interest, the share of oil and gas revenues in the budget.
        No one will turn off the gas to anyone.
        1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
          sH, arK 8 February 2022 14: 37
          +5
          Do not write nonsense, but first think, if there is something! The share of oil and gas in export revenue in 2021 increased significantly due to their rise in price and amounted to 53.8%.
          With a total export revenue of around $500 billion, the trade surplus (which went to the bank!) amounted to just under $200 billion. At the same time, Russia is in first place in the world in terms of wheat exports - more than 30 million tons. Food imports to Russia are practically ZERO!!! I love Fuet sausage, and its most famous producer, the Spanish Casademont, after the imposition of sanctions, now produces it in Russia from Russian beef!

          Imported, to a noticeable extent, in Russia, only alcohol remained - imported wines and cognacs by nomenclature in stores are at least 50%, though in terms of sales - 20%.

          So don't worry about us! What we have - we have! :-D But the rest may have problems...
          1. Muscool Offline Muscool
            Muscool (Glory) 9 February 2022 08: 42
            -4
            I told him about the budget deficit, he told me about pasta with cognac. What are you sick of? Where to get money? Will they take money from the moneybox for salaries, the military, doctors, teachers, doctors and the list goes on? Enough for a year or two, then how will the budget deficit of 30-35% be covered? If you can’t tell a cow from a dog, then you can hardly understand what the annual budget is, where the share of oil and gas revenues is under 35% and this is not the same as export earnings.
            + Closing the gas valve is a huge reputational loss, not only for Gazprom, but for the whole country in general, this is a very radical step, which is unlikely to be taken in peacetime by anyone.
            1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
              sH, arK 9 February 2022 13: 52
              0
              There is no deficit in the budget, as well as the brains of an accountant! I gave you the numbers. It’s even stupid, but you simply don’t know how otherwise, we consider with exports of 500 billion, and a surplus of 200 is a loss, even if we assume that we will lose to ZERO !!! oil and gas exports will receive export revenue in the region of 250 billion!!! Yes, now we have a surplus of 50% of export earnings!!! Even if it falls to zero, there will be no shortage! Surplus - too ... But I would not count on the fall of exports to zero! Unfortunately! Oil and gas - it is very easy to steal from us, and hide money in all sorts of "funds"! Both oil and gas - we need ourselves. In the USA, we delivered 2022 million barrels of diesel fuel in January 1.2! Not oil, but a product of a higher redistribution! And gas is a raw material for gas chemistry - plastics, polyethylene, fertilizers, etc. - these are high-processed products that we can and do ourselves too! And they, like petrochemistry, are very tied to the specific chemical properties of the original product, they cannot be replaced by "one or two"! This means that the production of fertilizers, fuels and lubricants, polyethylene and other complex products will collapse! Which means the price will skyrocket! So, until the thunder breaks out - no one will cross themselves! We need a push, unfortunately! Like gas! And the sharp rise in the cost of fertilizers is a sharp rise in the cost of agricultural products, which we are now actively exporting! And there is nothing for the importer to replace it with! Not to mention the fact that its import goes not to the EU, but to countries that wanted to sneeze at all their restrictions!
              Closing the valve - if Gazprom does it - yes, fines and loss of reputation! But if Russia does this, as a response to sanctions, this is for Gazprom - ONS, stipulated in the contract! There can be no reputational losses! Fines too!
              1. Muscool Offline Muscool
                Muscool (Glory) 14 February 2022 12: 04
                -3
                The logic is like that of a 12 year old child "when I grow up and receive 20 thousand, then in a year I will be able to save 240."
                Lord, if we have exports worth, say, 500 billion, this does not mean that all these 500 billion can be taken and spent.
                I sold millet for 100 million, 30 will go to purchase seedlings, 10 for salaries, 30 for depreciation of fixed assets, etc. as a result, a drop in the form of taxes will go to the budget from these 100 million, and it is this drop that can be spent on the salary of an educator, a policeman, hospital repairs and other things.
                1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
                  sH, arK 14 February 2022 18: 32
                  0
                  You are obviously thinking with your ass! I brought you the amount of the annual surplus! And they don’t spend money on the salaries of teachers and doctors in Russia! Yes, they can buy goods that have foreign exchange costs! But now is not the 90s, when going to the store (in Moscow) 90% of the products were imported! Seychps, except for canned food like "tuna" or pineapples and oranges - I don't even see it in the Globe or Your House! Imports have been reduced to 5-10% maximum, and this is in one of the most expensive stores! I am even silent about the province ... Well, maybe everything is a little different in Khabarovsk and Vladivostok ...
                  You are clearly confusing us with yourself!

                  We are not Ukrainians, Ukrainians are not us! ;);)
                  1. Muscool Offline Muscool
                    Muscool (Glory) 15 February 2022 08: 41
                    -2
                    A typical "turbopatriot" who considers everyone who has critical thinking to be Ukrainians, Ami and the fifth column. What canned tuna are you telling me about?
                    Open the zenki wider, go to the consultant + and look at the "Main Directions of the Budget, Tax and Customs Tariff Policy for 2019 and for the planning period of 2020 and 2021" (approved by the Ministry of Finance of Russia).
                    and look or show a friend an educated tablet that would explain to you how the budget of the Russian Federation is formed and from what funds.
                    Then you will return and tell where to suck out the missing 8 trillion rubles, if you cut off the export of energy resources to the "nasty" Europeans. Think that with the economy, it will become a currency. warrior
                    1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
                      sH, arK 15 February 2022 14: 10
                      -1
                      Your attitude is understandable, usually this is the case with people with a very poor understanding of economics and arithmetic.
                      And the question is - what does the tax and customs policy have to do with it?!

                      I suggest you easier, more accessible - look at the export structure:


                      The export of non-commodity goods in Russia in 2021 increased significantly:
                      https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5216522

                      And I am sure, for some reason, that growth is a consequence, first of all, of the import substitution policy!

                      At the top he gave general figures - that if we remove even 100% of the export of energy products, which of course is bullshit (!!!), then even in this case we will live absolutely without problems, yes, without a budget surplus! But you don't even have to spend the reserves! And given that, as at the end of 2021, the export restrictions that Gazprom finally introduced did not lead to a drop in revenue, but rather to a very sharp increase due to price surges! And most importantly, this will lead to an increase in the cost of fertilizers and agricultural products! Which is very good for us!

                      But because of fools who do not know how to count or scoundrel liberals working in the interests of others, we often pursue an economic policy that harms us!

                      Yes, what is "not deciphered" for $18.13 billion is the products of Rosoboronexport and Almaz-Antey, in other words, products of the highest processing stages and profit margins!
  3. passing by Offline passing by
    passing by (passing by) 8 February 2022 11: 58
    0
    Lithuanian Railways has already received an official notification from Minsk that oil products owned by the Polish ORLEN Lietuva and fertilizers by the Lithuanian company Achema will no longer be able to be transported through Belarus to consumers in Ukraine. Moreover, as Anatoly Glaz, a representative of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, said, his country reserves the right to take other economic sanctions against Lithuania.

    It would be possible to advise the Ukrainians to return to the old-fashioned methods of farming, but the ancestors of the Ukrainians were either servants or were engaged in robberies. laughing
  4. Assault Offline Assault
    Assault (Assault) 8 February 2022 12: 16
    +1
    Only the USA will be good, the rest will lose, everyone. Well, as always in general. The same 2nd world for example.
    1. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
      alexneg13 (Alexander) 13 February 2022 02: 33
      0
      It will not be good for the USA and they know it. Now they have in the first place to save face and they are very bad at it. For those who have the sun rising in Washington, the final series of "Manual Sunset".
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 8 February 2022 13: 50
    -4
    The zone of interests of the US and the EU is the whole world, and the whole world is in any case larger than its part, even as large as the Russian Federation. Therefore, the issue of reorienting the EU to other suppliers of energy resources and any other natural resources is associated only with price and time.
    Neither the PRC nor anyone in the world will be able to compensate for the shortfall in income of the Russian Federation from trade with the EU, and this is the budget, the lion's share of which is formed at the expense of income from foreign economic relations, primarily with the EU.
    So far, sanctions have been in the nature of coercion, not war. The war will start if the collective West - the US-EU, affiliated and dependent state formations, unite (summit of "democracies") and establish a full-fledged economic blockade - the arrest of gold reserves and accounts in foreign banks, a ban on the use of the dollar, respectively, the euro, pound, yen, franc, then China itself will not allow switching to the renminbi due to the threat of sanctions.
    How long can the economy of the Russian Federation hold out - at most half a year - a year, and then what?
    The loss of income will induce large capitalists to a consolidated political action that will be supported by all internal and external “democrats”, and if the government does not change policy, each RSPP singer will buy an army for himself and divide the Russian Federation into separate fiefdoms, and the “West” will support them in this.
    To the question whether Russia is ready for new sanctions, the answer is unequivocal - No, because there is no political party and the dictatorship of the proletariat as in the PRC and the role of which cannot be claimed by any of the political parties existing in the Russian Federation, and therefore it will crumble like a straw house of the Naf-Naf pig with purposeful and coordinated actions of the collective "West".
    1. tulip Offline tulip
      tulip 8 February 2022 15: 26
      +4
      on the one hand, you seem to have the truth - but when you start reading about every RSPP member who will buy an army for themselves and will divide Russia, you immediately understand that you are talking nonsense))) And certainly Russia has less than half a year a margin of safety - much more, I think at least 5 years. The West doesn’t have these 5 years - they don’t even have a year - European industry and agriculture will die earlier)))
    2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 8 February 2022 15: 40
      +2
      And how long will the West survive without Russian raw materials? Do Western capitalists agree to the complete zeroing of their income from the Russian Federation and the nationalization of their shares in the Russian economy?
      The Russian Federation has its own energy sources, grain, fish, basic vegetables, poultry and much more. They'll last a couple of years. + Trade with Latin America, Asia and Africa. How long will the West last?
      The EU is the countries occupied by the Anglo-Saxons. Now the US is introducing its soldiers into the EU, who are not subordinate to NATO. This is a real occupation of the EU countries! What if a people's liberation war against the US starts in Europe?
      1. Miffer Offline Miffer
        Miffer (Sam Miffers) 9 February 2022 08: 40
        -6
        The Russian Federation has its own energy sources, grain, fish, basic vegetables, poultry and more.

        By "many others" I represent 20 million people who (only by official standards) are below the poverty line, that is, they are beggars.
    3. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
      sH, arK 14 February 2022 18: 47
      0
      It's okay to carry nonsense already - not tired of it ?! Of course, Ukrainians really want protection, like a small child, that a big uncle (dad, brother) will come and protect! ;);) Only today we see that so far everything is the other way around - uncle tucked his tail, and brought all of his people out of Durkainushkivevez, drove Durkain under the air blockade! You also need to organize a marine one - and that's it, the bastard will come "yet not dead, dead"! Well, yes, and we have sanctions on parmesan;) Isn't it funny, you half-dead?!
  6. Miffer Offline Miffer
    Miffer (Sam Miffers) 9 February 2022 08: 04
    -5
    According to the Central Bank, as of January 14, 2022 international reserves of the Russian Federation reached a historic high and amounted to a record $638,2 billion. According to the World Bank, Russia ranks fourth in the world for this indicator, after China, Japan and Switzerland.

    And what is the "international reserves of the Russian Federation"?
    The fourth place in the world is good. Still such a standard of living or a system of social protection, as in Switzerland or Japan, but this will never happen.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 9 February 2022 09: 55
      -1
      Miffer, not all at once respected, not all at once. laughing
    2. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
      sH, arK 14 February 2022 19: 18
      +1
      Have you ever been to Switzerland? Well, what would be the subject to argue?! I was in Switzerland, in Germany, Italy, France, lived in the USA ... In Japan, alas ... I was not. Well digress...
      Ну и да - мой выбор - Швейцария! Никого бы рядом с ними не поставил! США тоже были хороши, года до 2000-2004... Ну Франция-Италия - если деньги есть, то тоже ничего... Германия, Австрия, Чехия - точно мне нафиг не облокотились ;) А Швейцария - да, крутая страна! Уже в марте-апреле - можно ходить в пиджаке или легком пуловере. В Женеве - климат как в Сочи. Морозов - не бывает! Женевское озеро - прозрачное, чистое - летом и на яхте есть где походить, горы вокруг! А захотел, час езды на машине, без всяких серпантинов - и вот тебе Шамони, городок, с которого много взяли, когда строили Роза-Хутор в Сочи... Лыжных трасс - море, и гора Монблан прям тут, с самого краю...

      And no European Union, they wanted to sneeze at them! Blacks and Arabs - only the very rich or travel from France ;););) Work ... Really. Not like in the USA ;) Everything is very correct and tough! The prices in the cafe for both steak and semolina are 25 francs / euro portion;) I ate steaks - ribeyes and striploins;)
      Why am I? The country is wonderful! Closes from everyone - at once! All roads to Europe - through tunnels, around the mountains ... Everywhere the police cordons are fortified. It can be seen that everything can be harshly and abruptly closed, cut off ... No nurses ... For the 1st and 2nd world wars, there are so many things left in banks - MOTHER DO NOT CRY! The whole world, all the richest, until the end of the 80s, kept everything with the Swiss gnomes! Accounts - number simplest! 20 digits - account number, 20 digits - account password! No names, no more! Forgot? Three attempts - didn't bug?! Fuck you... See you next year! THREE ATTEMPT A YEAR! I can imagine how many accounts have been lost there ... And there is not only money on the accounts! And above all, not money! Gold - Russian, German, jeweler from all over the world the most famous products that "disappeared" already 100 or even 200 years ago... Paintings, for example, it is known that Mona Lisa Leonardo painted 3 paintings and only one of them is in the Louvre;) Others think - there, with the gnomes ... Yes, Switzerland is Switzerland ... It's not only hard for us to compete with it! Alas, so far no one has succeeded!