After the Minsk agreements: three options for the development of events in the Donbass

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So, it's done. The words that Kiev would not comply with the provisions of the Minsk Agreements under any circumstances did not come from the lips of another political freak in an “embroidered shirt” or shabby camouflage, but were voiced by the country’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Alexei Danilov. Moreover, which is quite characteristic, this happened during an interview that he gave to the Associated Press agency.

That is, in fact, this is the message of the current government "nezalezhnaya" to the entire "collective West". We won't - and that's it! For "chaos and destruction of the country will come." I will refrain from irony about the fact that Pan Danilov uses these words in the future, and not in the present tense. If life in Ukraine teaches anything, it is, first of all, that there is no such thing as “worse than nowhere”. There is always somewhere, no matter how lousy things are at the moment ...



However, the main thing in the statement of a high-ranking representative of Kiev is that it was made publicly and openly. The fact that the local regime does not want, cannot and could never come close to fulfilling at least part of the Minsk-2 points, even if it had that very ardent desire, I personally wrote many times. The question was how long the diplomatic “peace settlement game” would last, with the participation not only of Moscow and Kiev, but also of the countries participating in the Normandy format. Well, and, of course, Washington, who was invisibly present and present in every “round” of it. What will happen now, when even their most ardent adherents will have to say goodbye to the fetish, dummy, simulacrum (call it what you want) called the Minsk Agreements? What will happen next? Let's try to figure it out by reducing the options to three main scenarios.

Necessary Preamble


Let me repeat myself about Danilov's demarche: the inevitable happened. This is definitely not a manifestation of the “Makhnovshchina” that is fully inherent in Kiev, when one leader or “statesman” suddenly starts to broadcast things that are categorically contrary to the position of others. This is precisely the official position of the authorities, simply voiced by one of its representatives, whose words can, in principle, be disowned - if the overseas "regional committee" gets completely pissed off. By the way, no later than December 22 last year, Zelensky decided to make resonant statements regarding the external policy "nezalezhnoy" has the right to himself, the head of his office, and even the prime minister of the country. And no one else. However, there is no information yet about the severe punishment for the "violator of the convention". Or is the presidential decree not a decree for Danilov? No wonder, since Zelensky himself, after the memorable visit of Anthony Blinken, who literally poked his nose into “Minsk” and demanded the implementation of this agreement (or, at least, active imitation of implementation), recorded a rather strange video message “to the nation”, in which he vaguely alluded to the fact that some "evil guys" are trying to "force Ukraine to make concessions in order to weaken it."

Even earlier, he had voiced a completely crazy and impracticable idea regarding a "nationwide referendum", at which, de facto, one can only decide whether it is worth implementing the agreements signed in 2015 or not giving a damn about them. As you can see, they managed without any referendum - but how nice! Danilov said as he cut off:

"Minsk" was signed "under the muzzle of a Russian cannon" and, by the way, with the tacit connivance of the "Germans and French."

But "it was clear to all reasonable people that it was impossible to implement such documents." First of all, because it "will lead to the destruction of Ukraine" and "chaos" caused by the fact that "society will not accept these agreements." So, the word has been said, the verdict on Minsk has been passed. What's next?

Option 1: "Full overhaul"


As a matter of fact, the same Danilov, to be absolutely precise, did not say something like: “Everything, to hell with the “peace settlement”, I went to warm up the tank!” No, this figure deigned to express himself in the sense that the agreements “unacceptable” for Kiev should be “reconsidered”. First of all, in matters of granting the Donbass "broad autonomy" and "large-scale amnesty." It is in this vicious idea, most likely, that the new course of the leadership of Ukraine will consist: "Minsk" is unfeasible, let's rewrite it! Let's change everything in general - the venue of the negotiations, the composition of their participants. And most importantly, those “starting positions” from which, in fact, we will begin to try to conduct a dialogue about something. Naturally, in the end, instead of a really extremely unrealistic, but at least well-intentioned plan for the reintegration of the rebellious region into the “non-sovereign” into the light of day, detailed instructions for its complete and unconditional surrender should appear. With all the ensuing consequences.

It is clear that both for the DPR and LPR, and for Russia, such initiatives are absolutely unacceptable. Literally everything will not suit us here: neither the transfer of the negotiating platform from Belarus to, say, Turkey, nor the fact that instead of the Germans and French, who are thirsty for our energy carriers and who do not want a war in Europe, the crazy “hawks” from the USA and Britain will enter the negotiating table. Nor, much less, the direction that all this warm company will try to give to the “renewed” conflict resolution process. No, you bastards! Each subsequent edition of the relevant agreements will be for us unambiguously much more losing and unacceptable than the previous ones. And why would Moscow, Donetsk and Luhansk go for this? Pan Danilov said that "Minsk-2" "was signed under the barrel of a Russian cannon." Now he, obviously, hopes that some "Istanbul-1" will be waved "at gunpoint" by the "unprecedented", "hellish" or other sanctions promised to us. Will not wait. Moscow has repeatedly stated that Minsk-2 is not subject to any “adjustment”, “revision” and other types of “creative rethinking”.

Option 2: "Force Scenario"


And after all, the West, having arranged all the trouble with the "imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine" and to this day continues to spin this topic, for sure, is counting on the first option outlined above. The Kremlin will falter, Moscow will "give back" and, having played some more time in the "peace negotiations", will allow Kiev to gobble up the Republic and begin to take a closer look at the Crimea. Hence all the hysteria around the most diverse "packages" and sets of restrictions that Washington and London intend to use against our country, as soon as they manage to craft a more or less suitable excuse. And ideally - also to incite their allies from the European Union to the same indecency. Well, no - so force them to do so. But what if the stubborn Russians still refuse to surrender the Donbass? Well, in this regard, you can be sure that the variant "in a bad way" has already been prepared. The pumping of Ukraine with weapons and the intelligence received in the LDNR (at least those that Eduard Basurin announced publicly just the day before) unequivocally indicate that the military version of “de-occupation” is not only available to the leadership of the “nezalezhnaya” - it is being worked out and prepared in all seriousness .

It is clear that no one is going to take Luhansk and Donetsk by storm - after all, the plan in this case is much more cunning and meaner than some primitive “Croatian scenario”. The whole point here is to expose Ukraine at any cost as a "victim of aggression", and the Armed Forces of Ukraine - not as punishers, but as "heroes who die for their land." That is, to provoke not only the Republics, but precisely Russia, forcing them to openly use their armed forces to save them. The task, alas, is technically quite feasible. At the same time, the West is well aware that this time there will be no “Georgian option” with stopping the offensive before reaching the capital. Nevertheless, there, apparently, they intend at a certain stage of the armed conflict to present Moscow with such conditions that are guaranteed to force it not only to refuse to decisively restore order in Kiev, but also to sign with the local "authorities" a certain "substitute" for "Minsk" on capitulation conditions, which have already been discussed above.

Option 3: Window of Opportunity For Russia and Donbass


As it is easy to understand, both first options will mean for our country not just the surrender of the Republics, counting solely on its help and protection, but a colossal, irreparable geopolitical defeat. The complete collapse of all those ambitions, which Moscow announced at the end of last year and which it is trying to defend now, will only be the beginning. Further, much more unpleasant and even terrible things will follow. And the only way to avoid such an outcome seems to be as decisive as possible to seize the initiative from the leader today, alas, quite successfully own game of the "collective West". And this can and should be done just by using those gross mistakes that the inadequate power of the "nezalezhnoy" allows. Will you not comply with the Minsk agreements? Well, great - in this case, we have a free hand for any form of support for the Republics! It is clear that everything should be done “according to the rules” and adhering to certain norms and processes “for decency”. Here are just the requirements that Danilov's statement be disavowed by himself, or by the same Zelensky, in this case is completely insufficient.

They themselves do not know what they are doing and saying. The same clown president, after meeting with British Prime Minister Johnson, made a number of statements that can be interpreted as the readiness of Minsk to comply. But exactly what "seems to be." In his usual manner, Zelensky openly played the fool, claiming that he “does not know who signed these agreements”, and ended his speech by saying that “adult boys” (to whom he considers himself) “should do something to de-occupy and protect states". The nonsense of a madman, but, however, nonsense, allowing for a very broad interpretation. Moscow, taking advantage of the moment, should deliver an ultimatum to Kiev - yes, obviously impossible! Something like the adoption by February 14 of the entire package of laws envisaged by Minsk-2. This, of course, will not be done - that's wonderful! As far as it is known, it is on this day that the State Duma of Russia should consider the issue of appealing to the president regarding the recognition of the DPR and LPR. The result here should be unambiguous.

There are simply no other options. The time when they could be chosen, trying to find the least painful, has passed irrevocably. Our country must launch an offensive - for the time being, a foreign policy one, using diplomatic means. Life after "Minsk" exists - but it depends only on Russia what it will be like for millions of people. And will...
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  1. +1
    2 February 2022 09: 15
    The West in the person of Psaki (by the way, let's consolidate a new word in diplomacy - there are statements of individuals, but there are psaki - deceitful, stupid, smelly, idiotic, illiterate and not even a statement - a burp or a funny fart) The US State Department issued another psaki. We kind of use chemical weapons everywhere and capture our neighbors once a week...
    1. -2
      2 February 2022 15: 23
      Quote: shiva
      The West in the person of Psaki (by the way, let's consolidate a new word in diplomacy - there are statements of individuals, but there are psaki - deceitful, stupid, smelly, idiotic, illiterate and not even a statement - a burp or a funny fart) The US State Department issued another psaki. We kind of use chemical weapons everywhere and capture our neighbors once a week...

      Units of measurement of stupidity in psaki have already been - 1,2,3 psaki.
  2. -1
    2 February 2022 09: 27
    Like Transnistria, Donbass will remain in a suspended (frozen) state. A stalemate: no one can win, so they got used to it, got used to it, adapted to the existing situation.
    1. +2
      2 February 2022 09: 32
      Transnistria is stupid to compare with Donbass. In the first case, the region is completely cut off, there is no way to get close to it, only through the territory of third countries. There is a common border with Donbass. This issue can be resolved if there is political will.
      1. -2
        2 February 2022 21: 11
        The presence of a common border with the Donbass makes it possible to send humanitarian aid there and send vacationers. There will be no political will in the Donbass, because according to the official position of Russia, the Donbass is part of Ukraine.

        The one who thinks he is smart is a fool and whoever admits that he is slightly out of his mind is a sage.

        Guillaume Musso.
  3. 0
    2 February 2022 09: 34
    https://topcor.ru/23660-prinuzhdenie-kieva-k-minsku-2-stanet-ne-pobedoj-a-porazheniem-rossii.html
  4. -3
    2 February 2022 10: 26
    I don't care how many options there are. Do something so that people begin to live, and not survive! How much snot can you chew! They are already sending it in plain text and we still have to consider some options!
    1. -11
      2 February 2022 11: 06
      those who fled to Russia have already grown strong and fledged. they start to crow. let them help their Donetsk relatives. Russia is not a sow with a bunch of boobs that anyone can cling to. There are also people in Africa and they also live poorly ... The same "brothers" according to Pushkin.
  5. 0
    2 February 2022 12: 33
    The requirements of the Russian Federation to the United States on security guarantees are a rare case, an example of the foreign policy that needs to be pursued. It appears that the Russian diplomats themselves were afraid of such a step and do not know how to back down and save face. In general, meetings, negotiations over the past month and a half - empty chatter without a hint of a result!
  6. 0
    2 February 2022 12: 35
    Something like the adoption by February 14 of the entire package of laws envisaged by Minsk-2. This, of course, will not be done - that's wonderful! As far as it is known, it is on this day that the State Duma of Russia should consider the issue of appealing to the president regarding the recognition of the DPR and LPR.

    Why lead these round dances? Zelensky will answer that he needs time to think, to prepare, etc.
    Europeans, Americans will join and will support the former Ukraine.

    We just need to recognize the republic. No red tape, no empty chatter, no dancing with tambourines.
    Just recognize the republic, at least within the boundaries of the regions. And then conclude a military treaty with them.
    But after that, you can demand to withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of the republics within 24 hours.
    All according to the law. No attack on Ukraine. Liberation of territories occupied by enemies.
    1. -9
      2 February 2022 12: 53
      those. Russia should at least show that her signature in Minsk is worthless and her words are an empty phrase like those of Ukrainians? and what enemies captured? Khokhols from Kiev are fighting with their Donetsk relatives. the same names on both sides of the "front". on the one hand Ukrainians yell "America punish Russia" on the other Ukrainians yell "Russia punish Europe". Get around!!!
    2. +1
      2 February 2022 15: 26
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Something like the adoption by February 14 of the entire package of laws envisaged by Minsk-2. This, of course, will not be done - that's wonderful! As far as it is known, it is on this day that the State Duma of Russia should consider the issue of appealing to the president regarding the recognition of the DPR and LPR.

      Why lead these round dances? Zelensky will answer that he needs time to think, to prepare, etc.
      Europeans, Americans will join and will support the former Ukraine.

      We just need to recognize the republic. No red tape, no empty chatter, no dancing with tambourines.
      Just recognize the republic, at least within the boundaries of the regions. And then conclude a military treaty with them.
      But after that, you can demand to withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of the republics within 24 hours.
      All according to the law. No attack on Ukraine. Liberation of territories occupied by enemies.

      Everything will be decided after the Olympics.
      1. -1
        3 February 2022 05: 54
        I hope that the pause is connected with the Olympics.
  7. -7
    2 February 2022 15: 16
    So, gentlemen, the zaputintsy, your sacred idol pro ... blew all the opportunities that opened up to him in the 14th year. And as a result, such an abscess has grown that can only be opened surgically. Set cons.
    1. -1
      2 February 2022 20: 00
      Quote: Dimy4
      Put the cons.

      Well done, you yourself understand that you do not deserve more. drinks
  8. -1
    2 February 2022 15: 25
    It is clear that both for the DPR and LPR, and for Russia, such initiatives are absolutely unacceptable. Literally everything will not suit us here: neither the transfer of the negotiation platform from Belarus to, say, Turkey,

    Turkey will have a negotiating platform along the Bosporus and Dardanelles.
  9. +1
    2 February 2022 16: 11
    If you have to recognize the LDNR, then this should be done only within their former borders until 2014, but in general it’s time for our “Guarantor” to start beating first - the fight has already begun, and we need to start urgently from Ukraine, despite the hysteria and squeals of European jackals. Bring Yanukovych to Donetsk, who, as the legitimate president of Ukraine in exile after the Galician-nationalist putsch, returned to his lawful homeland to liberate it from the Bandera invaders, and for this he will ask for help from Russia, which, without crossing the border, will remotely destroy the entire military infrastructure The Armed Forces of Ukraine with all the means it has and warn our "partners" that this is not a joke, and the same awaits them if they twitch.
    If something didn’t work out with this “ultimatum”, then we need to act decisively, toughly and cruelly, has it already gone to the survival of our state, or send Chubais and Kudrin with a petition to the White House?
    1. -1
      3 February 2022 06: 02
      I do not think that Yanukovych is needed, and I would not be in a hurry with nuclear strikes.
      Otherwise, I agree with Valentin.
      It is necessary to change the power in the former territory of Ukraine. Yes, and split into several parts will be useful.
      The DPR and LPR, after restoring order on their territory and with their consent, can be accepted into the Russian Federation.
      Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporizhia, let them build their own states or a state. The main thing is to be at least neutral towards Russia.
  10. -3
    3 February 2022 21: 43
    Donbass needs to be returned to Russia, like Crimea, this will immediately stop the war and cool the heads of not normal villagers from Galicia
  11. 0
    17 February 2022 11: 58
    Like it or not... NATO is approaching... Zelensky is humiliated... Russia is expanding