Should we expect a civil war in the United States

For a couple of decades, there has been active talk about the imminent collapse of the United States of America. They talk about an unbearable national debt, an acute political crisis, incredible stock market bubbles, an impending racial civil war and the collapse of the confederation into separate states. There are a great many scenarios for the collapse of the United States, and each turning point political their moment is added.

From the latter, one can recall the recent presidential elections, when the internal political situation in the United States enjoyed extraordinary media attention in all countries. The information agenda was filled with BLM pogroms, mutual abuse of candidates, inter-party discord, armed ultra-right and ultra-left groups. A significant part of our Chinese and European observers claimed that the United States was on the verge of a civil war.

An impending political crisis is periodically predicted by some American analysts. In particular, before the elections there was talk that in the event of a defeat, neither Trump nor Biden would recognize the results and thereby plunge America into chaos.

However, as you know, nothing of the kind happened. In the same way as the growth of public debt, the annual approach to budget default, periodic stock market fever and the growth of separatist sentiments of the largest states do not lead to the collapse of the United States. Moreover, it cannot be said that all these factors are far-fetched or incorrectly ranked as destructive. They do express a tendency towards the destruction of the American state in its present form, but the reverse effect of the degree of stability of the political and economic US systems is higher. Centrifugal forces prevail over discord every time.

Civil War in the USA

It is clear that the prospect of the collapse of the United States is associated with a civil war, since the centralized state that has grown to an incredible size and the business community tightly soldered by Wall Street will bloodlessly collapse the country or change the political character of the state, no matter how this or that states, or these or other sections of society will not allow.

Any phenomenon has a necessary and sufficient condition for its occurrence. A necessary condition for a civil war is the presence of relatively large social groups, the contradictions between which are insoluble without an open conflict. A sufficient condition for the outbreak of a civil war is a high degree of organization of at least one of them (the presence of leaders, a party, a headquarters) and a readiness to conduct an armed struggle.

There are a lot of social groups that are openly hostile to each other in the United States both along purely political lines and along racial, ethnic, regional lines: Trump supporters and right-wing groups, antifa, BLM and leftists, liberals, rednecks, African Americans and Latinos, separatists ( Texans, Confederates, Aleuts, Hawaiians, Yes California, Lakota, Cascadia, South Carolina, Vermont, New Africa). They all have polar political views and an open hatred of each other and of the federal government. Some are well armed.

However, the degree of their contradictions cannot be considered sufficient to unleash a civil war even in conditions of an acute political crisis. Moreover, the presidential election was such a crisis (its peak was the seizure of the Capitol at the beginning of last year), the covid catastrophe became an acute social crisis, and the economic crisis in the United States has long been chronic. But at the same time, the federal government firmly holds power, and the centralized state systematically suppresses sporadic discontent.

The fact is that large social groups in the United States agree on one thing - they benefit from the retention of world hegemony by American capital. All of them are not against American messianism. Even the separatists are fighting for the independence of their states without destroying the existing economic ties, a significant part of which is tied to the external exploitation of poor countries and regions.

This shows a bizarre connection between the internal political life of America and its foreign policy. In the United States, unfortunately, there are no political forces that would directly admit that the Anglo-Saxon oligarchs, with the assistance of the middle class, built an empire that oppressed half the world. There is no political force that would want to put an end to American messianism and strive to build a peace-loving state.

Thus, the degree of contradiction of various social groups in the United States is significantly smoothed out in the economic field, they are ready to cut each other's throats for the profits that America receives through predatory policies, but do not even think about overthrowing this empire itself. The essence of the controversy between them is reduced to secondary issues and therefore remains within the framework of the existing system of power.

In addition, none of the leaders of numerous opposition groups is able to organize the broad masses, none of the ordinary oppositionists is ready to die for their convictions. There is no political force in the United States that could take and then hold power either in the country or in a separate state.

Tantrums are supported by the authorities themselves

At the same time, it is easy to see that the ruling circles in the United States and the media controlled by them are not at all averse to plunging the public into endless squabbles about racism, relations between the federal center and the states, the struggle of Democrats and Republicans, “Covid” and anti-vaxxers. On the contrary, they willingly inflate these secondary questions, translating their "discussion" into the category of uniform hysteria. It's all part of a big political show called American-style democracy.

The real American policy is expressed by the good old formula: "What's good for General Motors is good for America."

As long as American democracy works, the American "establishment" can sleep peacefully. Even if the leaders of the state lead the country into a dead end of the most severe crisis, nothing threatens the oligarchs. There will be a change of persons in power - no more.

Another thing is that in recent years the two-party system itself has been increasingly failing. She has worn herself down significantly in a hundred years, people are tired of starched Democrats and Republicans who swear in the “box” during the day and have dinner with their families in the evening. But this political environment can always be renewed by introducing additional parties, as was the case in other Western democracies. Moreover, every year the left and socialist sentiments are growing among the American youth, and right and conservative in the American middle class.

The American ship of domestic politics has long been bursting at the seams, but it keeps afloat because its crew is heavily brainwashed. Its members swear, fight, but they are not ready to scrap the ship. Too high a price paid by completely different people.
21 comment
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 January 2022 09: 45
    2 factors keep the States from disintegrating.
    1. There is no Lenin in the States with his phrase - "Let's turn the imperialist war into a civil war."
    2. As long as the dollar rules, the States will stand. But when the Americans finally push Russia into the arms of China and half of Asia switches to mutual settlements in yuan, the dollar will collapse and then the Civil War in the States can no longer be avoided. Now the US is like a scorpion that can kill itself by stinging itself with its tail.
  2. greenchelman Offline greenchelman
    greenchelman (Grigory Tarasenko) 31 January 2022 09: 57
    Should we expect a civil war in the US? No, it's not worth it, just like the tsunami that swept away the cities and the explosion of Youloston.
  3. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 31 January 2022 10: 35
    I would not rule out the possibility of such a development of events. Not immediately, of course, but in the future it is quite possible.
    As soon as the "food base" cannot satisfy the usual Wishlist and life becomes less comfortable, the search for extra food will immediately begin. Slogan Stop Feeding Alabama!!! probably has a chance to become popular somewhere in Texas or California.
    The main thing is to start dividing the imperial heritage, then everything will trample on by itself.
    The division is not bloodless.
    In 1991, too, no one expected a war. People tend to be mistaken and consider themselves smarter than others. They already know everything exactly how it should be and will not allow it ... The Ukrainians, I remember, were proud of their first bloodless Maidan. Americans are no better than others in this. In general, everything depends on the economy, we will see.
  4. Eduard Aplombov Offline Eduard Aplombov
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 31 January 2022 11: 13
    the west and in particular the usa are arranged differently from russia
    in Russia everything is built on the personal qualities of a leader, by everything I mean the foreign and domestic policy of the country
    the West, in my opinion, is organized in principle differently, the entire political elite of the West has the functions of temporarily managing their countries, their entire political system is built by globalist families, clans, whatever you want to call it, and this system primarily serves these financial elites
    these owners, in principle, don’t care about the local natives, well, a local mess will happen, well, they’ll put a mile, two mile of inhabitants there, finances can be transferred to a safe haven, for a while, of course, the authorities will not allow completely destroying the United States, they will kill all the attackers
    the western world in which we all live is very stable despite the global crisis
    and it is stable largely because it has a multi-stage system of power and a huge financial potential, including those used for world propaganda of its goals, social networks, films, education of generations (from school), substitution of values, fragmentation of churches, faith
    and I will add that Russia, represented by its leader, is fighting only one of the heads of this hydra, while the rest of the heads do what they want on the territory of both Russia and the rest of the world
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 31 January 2022 11: 30
    Yeah, at first they were bombarded with articles - Omerik was about to fall apart, the dollar was about to fall, and when nothing like that happened, they tried to quickly forget

    It's amazing that suddenly an excuse, because such "brilliant bloggers, experts, media" prophesied all this ...

    Neither here nor there is a word of analysis about the real structure of their power, procedures, and so on.
    it's on a completely different site.
  6. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 31 January 2022 11: 55
    Normal, adequate article. And the fact that they often write nonsense, you need to look to see if there is an author, and if there is, then remember the names. Articles without last names are usually well below average.
  7. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 31 January 2022 12: 59
    There are many groupings, but there is no unifying leader yet. There are few crazy violent ones, so there are no leaders.
  8. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 31 January 2022 13: 48
    Wild fantasy, of course not.
    For this, a revolutionary situation must take place, the signs of which were indicated by V.I. Lenin, and which preceded the Great October Socialist Revolution and the collapse of the USSR.
    These problems speak only of the impending crisis in the United States, which will inevitably develop into a global one and which the whole world will fight against - it creates a problem alone, and shifts its solution to everyone.
    World hegemony is attractive because it allows the United States to subordinate the whole world to its interests - economic, political, military, scientific, technical, ideological, cultural and everything else.
    This allows the ruling class to maintain the so-called. “golden billion” not at the expense of their income, but at the expense of robbing the rest of the world. Hence the question - who is actually the evil empire?
    Therefore, the gap between the rich and the poor is not only not shrinking, despite all the efforts of governments and the world community, but on the contrary, it is growing exponentially, as even the head of the UN, Anton Guterres, speaks about and substantiates this with statistical data from various sources.
    After the collapse of the USSR, the fallen banner of socialism was picked up by the PRC, whose economic growth reduces and limits the omnipotence of the United States and this causes a real hysteria of the ruling class.
    Good relations between the Russian Federation and the PRC are due not to the presence of a common enemy in the face of the United States, but to the similarity of the system of government and administration under Vladimir Putin.
    After big capital gets out of control of the state, and in the absence of a party and the dictatorship of the proletariat, this will inevitably happen sooner or later, relations between the Russian Federation and the PRC will change and not for the better.
  9. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) 31 January 2022 14: 31
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    For this, a revolutionary situation must take place, the signs of which were indicated by V.I. Lenin, and which preceded the Great October Socialist Revolution and the collapse of the USSR.

    Yes, there was no VOSR, even the victorious Bolsheviks, in the first decades, called the event of November 7, a coup. The February revolution, also such a thing, it was a revolution from above. Therefore, talking about the signs of a revolutionary situation in the Republic of Ingushetia in 1917 is simply ridiculous. It is Lenin's merit that he simply picked up the power that had fallen to the ground, did not get scared, but said - there is such a party.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 31 January 2022 15: 31
      The February Revolution brought the bourgeoisie to power. October - the proletariat.
      In the 90s the bourgeoisie came to power. So it's also a revolution. Or counter-revolution.
      Well, it turns out that way, if you focus on the Marxist-Leninist ideology.
  10. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 31 January 2022 15: 33
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    Wild fantasy, of course not.
    For this, a revolutionary situation must take place, the signs of which were indicated by V.I. Lenin, and which preceded the Great October Socialist Revolution and the collapse of the USSR.

    In general, the author writes about the civil war, and not about the revolution.
  11. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 31 January 2022 16: 59
    how long will the US be able to maintain control over the financial system of the world? How long will the dollar be the blood of the world economy? The increase in public debt should somehow be parried by economic growth. It will not be easy to run on a tightrope over the abyss for a long time, it is impossible to call the global financial system stable. And the end of control over world finances will blow the US down to the size of a real economy, and that's where internal squabbles can be expected.
    1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 1 February 2022 10: 28
      the end of control over world finances will blow the US down to the size of a real economy, and there it is quite possible to expect internal showdowns

      Internal disassembly takes place everywhere and always in any society. The intensity of intra-class contradictions between various factions of the US ruling class was clearly demonstrated by the recent presidential elections.
      What is important is that, whatever their outcome, the United States will not give up “control of the world's finances”, this is the foundation on which their world domination rests.
      The dollar bubble has inflated to critical levels, which means it is time to think about replacing it.
      The IMF is a prototype of the world bank, which, having a unique printing press, issues a supranational world currency - SDR, special drawing rights, which are a means of accumulation and interstate settlements.
      The United States owns a controlling stake in the IMF, and therefore they determine the policy of the IMF. We decided and printed 21 billion SDRs at the end of 456 years to support the global economy - they supported it and the dollar bubble did not burst. Hello, well done.
      Add to this the summit of "democracies" - more than a hundred state formations, which will certainly be joined by several dozen more.
      In fact, the United States is trying to form a “democratic” alternative to the UN, but without the PRC and the Russian Federation with their “Veto” right, for which it will be a noose around the neck.
      If everything goes as planned, it remains only to tighten it properly. The result will be a kind of “democratic” world government with its own bank and banknotes under the control of world transnational monopoly associations.
      China and the Russian Federation are united in upholding the role of the UN, we'll see who takes it.
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 1 February 2022 13: 11
      Internal disassembly has already begun there. Biden failed to get electoral legislation through Congress. Two Democrats voted no. Now the victory of the Democrats in the elections in the fall is in serious doubt. Plus, Powell is going to start raising rates in March. The head of the IMF, Georgieva, is trying to explain to him that he will ruin the economy of the United States and the whole world. More precisely, it will destroy the dollar system. It all depends on whether Powell can understand it.
      Georgieva was educated under the USSR (she graduated from the Karl Marx Institute in Bulgaria). And she knows what structural inflation is. Knows she can't be beaten by raising the stakes.
      And Powell basically does not know what structural inflation is. Education is not the same.
      If Powell starts to raise the rate, serious problems will begin by the end of spring.
      If it doesn't start, the problems will start a little later. If there are no external influences. In this regard, the Maidan of truckers is very suspicious.
      Interestingly, Russia is not interested in a collapse scenario for the United States.
  12. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) 2 February 2022 01: 48
    Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    The February Revolution brought the bourgeoisie to power. October - the proletariat.
    In the 90s the bourgeoisie came to power. So it's also a revolution. Or counter-revolution.
    Well, it turns out that way, if you focus on the Marxist-Leninist ideology.

    In the Republic of Ingushetia, the proletariat was a fraction of a percent. The state was a peasant state. But Lenin, Trotsky, Bukharin, Kamenev, etc., did not even stand next to the workers or peasants. Where is the proletariat in power? Soviet socialism, this same capitalism, side view. You really think that a factory worker is far away. No, the factory was owned by the state. That is, instead of a private owner, there was a state one. But even under capitalism, some enterprises can and do be state-owned. Then what is the difference, and it is not.
  13. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 February 2022 07: 12
    Quote: ALSur
    Where is the proletariat in power? Soviet socialism, this same capitalism, side view. You really think that a factory worker is far away. No, the factory was owned by the state. That is, instead of a private owner, there was a state one.

    You don't know history. Before the February Revolution, the aristocracy had legal privileges. She was in power. February took away privileges and transferred power to the bourgeoisie. The October Revolution legalized the privileges of the proletariat.
    By the way, at the time of the October Revolution it was not a fraction of a percent, but a few percent, I don’t remember exactly. That is, you made a mistake on the order. You don't know the history.
    The property was transferred from private hands to the public. We can say that in the future part of the property (only part) became state property.

    You don't understand the point.
    Among the capitalists, property was sharpened for profit, which went to the capitalist.
    Under public ownership there is no exploitation of workers by the capitalist. The owner of the produced product was the people. Factories and collective farms were not inherited. Everyone had to work. There was no way to live on rent or burn through an inheritance.

    Then what is the difference, and there is none ..

    The difference is huge. You just don't have enough education to see and understand this difference.
  14. Guest throat bone 10 February 2022 20: 09
    After the fall of the dollar, a civil war in the United States is inevitable!
  15. nuadu Offline nuadu
    nuadu 13 February 2022 09: 30
    In the United States, unfortunately, there are no political forces that would directly admit that the Anglo-Saxon oligarchs, with the assistance of the middle class, built an empire that oppressed half the world.

    And this is not required. It requires one of these factions to decide to monopolize those same benefits.
  16. Kade_t Offline Kade_t
    Kade_t (Igor) 16 February 2022 14: 41
    If the government of the States puts the situation on the brink of war with us, then out of fear this power can be washed away by the people.
  17. Maxim Borkin Offline Maxim Borkin
    Maxim Borkin (Maxim Borkin) 22 February 2022 20: 54
    I'll drink to it!
  18. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 11 March 2022 10: 45
    I agree with the author. I suppose we are for the collapse of the United States, which means why not support separatism in some way? Now, in light of the avalanche of sanctions, we can no longer be accused of meddling, so why not support the just claims of the oppressed Latinos and so on. colored people for their share in the distribution of the looted worldwide profits!
    Thanks to the huge external debt and the upcoming abandonment of the dollar, inflation is inevitable in the United States, which could lead to a military coup. I think otherwise it is impossible to avoid the preservation of a single country by the States, since the groups of economically dissatisfied population rightly listed by the author will just smack on the establishment))