The provocation of the West will force Russia to resolve the Ukrainian issue according to the "Georgian" scenario

48

For more than a month, the “hysteria” associated with Russia’s probable “invasion” of Ukraine has not subsided in the Western media. The scale of this information campaign is striking, which makes one wonder about the motives of those who launched it.

If we logically approach the issue of the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine with its subsequent "occupation", it becomes clear that our country needs this least of all. First, having taken the territory of its “western neighbor” by force, Russia will immediately receive a response from the West in the form of serious sanctions. Moreover, the very territory with the already destroyed the economy and dilapidated infrastructure will have to be restored by us.



It turns out that the aforementioned information "hysteria" is needed rather by the West in order to achieve its geopolitical goals.

By and large, some of them are being implemented right now. NATO is moving its troops eastward, supplying weapons to Ukraine and announcing the possible admission of other countries to the alliance, up to neutral Finland. All this makes it possible to systematically expand the influence of the bloc, allegedly on a “good reason” in the form of “Russian aggression”.

Another reason for provoking Russia into a conflict with Kiev may be the desire to finally “close” the Ukrainian issue. After all, our "Western neighbor" has long become a problem not only for Russia, but also for the West itself.

Thus, it is possible that the United States and allies are planning a provocation that will force our country to resolve the Ukrainian issue according to the “Georgian” scenario of 2008. However, for the West, this could be an extremely risky "adventure". After all, no one knows exactly how Russia will react to a potential provocation.

48 comments
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  1. Mikhail L.
    Mikhail L.
    -8
    30 January 2022 11: 02
    The author is right: Russia will certainly lose from direct intervention in the conflict.
    But if Ukraine attacks Donbass, then it will have no other choice!
    One can only guess how Ukraine will eventually be divided into pro-Russian and pro-Western parts.
    Fundamentally, the question is different: Is it possible to conflict with the economically developed West, being its agricultural and raw material appendage?
    1. Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover
      -8
      30 January 2022 11: 48
      Quote: Mikhail L.
      Is it possible to conflict with the economically developed West, being its agricultural and raw material appendage?

      North Korea and Iran get it right.
      1. Mikhail L.
        Mikhail L.
        -6
        30 January 2022 12: 35
        Is North Korea trading with the West?
        Has the conflict with the West brought Iran ... dividends?
        Poorly "is obtained"!
        1. tulip
          tulip
          +4
          30 January 2022 13: 31
          Are you talking about an agrarian raw material appendage?))) but is the West ready to freeze, starve and close its production for the sake of your Ukraine?) Why do you all have in the training manuals that only Russia will lose something there - otherwise the West will suffer colossal economic and political damage - you don't write
          1. Mikhail L.
            Mikhail L.
            -2
            30 January 2022 13: 46
            In an economic war, both sides will suffer.
            The issue is safety margin!
            You are a great connoisseur of Ukrainian manuals.
            Share information! ;-(
            1. tulip
              tulip
              +3
              30 January 2022 14: 04
              Russia has a greater margin of safety than the West, or does it not fit in your head?))) Well, these are your problems))) Germany, for example, is withdrawing its production from the Czech Republic and Poland back to itself, since Russian gas is cheaper for Germany and produced as earlier, the Czechs and Poles were already unprofitable. The British receive new payments where the amounts have grown by 1.5-2 times))) Fertilizer production in Europe is covered with a copper basin, and in Russia they are growing. Etc. And this is even without the Muscovites attacking an independent and free Ukraine)
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        2. Oleg Rambover
          Oleg Rambover
          -7
          30 January 2022 13: 42
          Quote: Mikhail L.
          Is North Korea trading with the West?

          No, he receives only humanitarian aid from the West.

          Quote: Mikhail L.
          Has the conflict with the West brought Iran ... dividends?

          No matter how. Did anyone count on it? What dividends when it comes to braces. In general, Iran is a perfect example. Make a kind of Orthodox Iran out of the Russian Federation. In my opinion, the current Russian leadership is working in this direction.

          Quote: Mikhail L.
          Poorly "is obtained"!

          Well, what do you want. You have to pay for "greatness".
          1. Mikhail L.
            Mikhail L.
            +1
            30 January 2022 13: 48
            Switching the arrows to Iran and North Korea is incorrect!
            1. Oleg Rambover
              Oleg Rambover
              -7
              30 January 2022 13: 54
              Why?
              To your question:

              Quote: Mikhail L.
              Is it possible to conflict with the economically developed West, being its agricultural and raw material appendage?

              The answer is possible, an example of Iran and North. Korea.
              1. Mikhail L.
                Mikhail L.
                -3
                30 January 2022 14: 03
                If Iran (a blow to the export of Iranian oil is an example of a "successful conflict") and North Korea (humanitarian aid) are agricultural and raw material appendages, then you can!
                1. Oleg Rambover
                  Oleg Rambover
                  -7
                  30 January 2022 14: 07
                  Firstly, the criterion of "success" can be different.
                  Secondly, you did not ask anything about "success".
                  For the Kim family, this conflict is super successful. As well as for the Iranian elites.
                  1. Mikhail L.
                    Mikhail L.
                    -1
                    30 January 2022 14: 11
                    In addition to nit-picking the word "success" - no objections?
                    1. Oleg Rambover
                      Oleg Rambover
                      -8
                      30 January 2022 14: 26
                      Yes, what quibbles? So shake it up.
    2. sgrabik
      sgrabik
      +4
      30 January 2022 11: 59
      And where did you get the idea that Russia will certainly lose, and we have not been an appendage of the West for a long time, maybe you have an obsessive nostalgia for the 90s ???
      1. Mikhail L.
        Mikhail L.
        -3
        30 January 2022 12: 32
        Where is my assertion that Russia will certainly lose?
        The total GDP of the Russian Federation and the collective West is incomparable!
        Is it the West supplying Russia with energy resources?
        "we have not been an appendage of the West for a long time" - wishful thinking!
        1. Bakht
          Bakht
          +6
          30 January 2022 13: 01
          You can put the question differently.
          The West is an appendage of Russia. What can the West produce without energy resources and raw materials? After all, enterprises are closing not in Russia, but in Europe. Show me the market where Europe will sell its products, at exorbitant prices...
          And a small appendage - the comparison in terms of GDP is not very correct. GDP does not show the economic power of the state.
          1. Mikhail L.
            Mikhail L.
            -5
            30 January 2022 13: 18
            The current dependence of the West on the Russian Federation is short-term.
            "And a small appendage": What, if not GDP, shows precisely (!) the economic power of the state?
            And "not too correct": Not with the current economic potential of the Russian Federation - to claim the role of an alternative pole to the United States!
            Unpleasant facts cannot be brushed aside - they must be recognized and accepted as an incentive to action!
            1. Bakht
              Bakht
              +6
              30 January 2022 13: 24
              The current dependence of the West on Russia is for decades. This is for a long time, if not forever.
              Russia does not claim to be a "pole alternative to the United States." She is this "pole" de facto.
              I urge you not to dismiss unpleasant facts, but to accept them as reality. The West (particularly Europe) is CRITICALLY dependent on Russia. This dependency is mutual. But Russia depends much less on the West.
              I have already spoken about GDP a hundred times. This is an exaggerated indicator, which in no way indicates the economic power of the state. Only lazy people don't talk about it. Even former French President N. Sarkozy thought about this

              In February 2008, French President Nicolas Sarkozy approached the Nobel laureates in economics Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, as well as the eminent French economist Jean-Paul Fitoussi, with a proposal to create a commission of leading economists to study the issue of whether GDP is a reliable indicator of economic and social progress.

              https://www.iep.ru/ru/dzhozef-stiglitc-amartiia-sen-zhan-pol-fitussi-neverno-otcenivaia-nashu-zhizn-pochemu-vvp-ne-imeet-smysla-doklad-komissii-po-izmereniiu-effektivnosti-ekonomiki-i-sotcialnogo-progressa.html
              I wonder how the Nobel laureates came to the conclusion that "GDP does not make sense"?
              1. Mikhail L.
                Mikhail L.
                -4
                30 January 2022 13: 43
                Unsubstantiated pretentious assertions are worth nothing.
                If GDP is not an indicator, then what did the Nobel laureates offer instead?
                ... Commandment: "Do not make yourself an idol" ... from Nobel laureates!
                In Ukraine, in such cases, they ironically say: "Let's have buckwheat, abi (s) are not a super girl." (Do you need a translation?)
                1. tulip
                  tulip
                  +3
                  30 January 2022 14: 06
                  and you will have time to get to Boryspil to the chassis of the NATO litak?)))
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                2. Bakht
                  Bakht
                  +2
                  30 January 2022 14: 23
                  An online translator always exists.
                  What are the "pompous assertions"? I provided a link to the official report. What did you bring? Nothing real. Nobel laureates (and not only them) have proposed several methods of counting. But they do not fit into a liberal economy.

                  Perhaps .... a metric of economic development would be net domestic product (NDP). According to the National Income and Product Accounts methodology developed by the American Bureau of Economic Analysis, NVP is equal to GDP minus fixed capital consumption (which includes write-offs of unproductive investments...)

                  There are other methods of counting. This is for the experts. Thank God I am not. But the fact that GDP is an exaggerated value is agreed by many economists.
              2. Boa kaa
                Boa kaa
                +1
                30 January 2022 19: 23
                Quote: Bakht
                The West (particularly Europe) is CRITICALLY dependent on Russia. This dependency is mutual.

                By no means! Russia will be able to build production independent of the West (for example: a microelectronic base or dviguns there for ships). But where the West can get natural resources such as minerals, energy carriers, etc. is a question. Yes, you can deliver from the moon, but then who will buy such products that cost more than the weight of gold!? That is why there is a global division of labor and trade is carried out in a "mutually beneficial" mode. The sanctions contradict them and are aimed at undermining the established mutually beneficial cooperation between our country and the West. We'll have to turn our eyes to the East! But it is unlikely that the West will be better off from this.
                IMHO.
        2. Boa kaa
          Boa kaa
          +2
          30 January 2022 19: 11
          Quote: Mikhail L.
          The total GDP of the Russian Federation and the collective West is incomparable!

          Well, yes, well, yes ... But for some reason you don't want to talk about the "structure" of Western GDP, where about 50% of the "product" is accounted for by "services" and the non-productive sector. It's like - delivery of the purchase to the buyer = + 5% of GDP !!! and legal advice - 10%. For some reason, this does not bother you ... And they still have not solved the problem of "re-billing" in their "accounting" department. Therefore, to believe their crafty statistics - do not respect the opponent! That you are not at all embarrassed and demonstrate ... No.
        3. alexneg13
          alexneg13
          0
          6 February 2022 15: 48
          Yes, and the GDP of the USA consists of 60% of services, and this does not mean anything. If services are removed from the calculation of GDP, then the United States of America will not even enter the top ten. So the painted bald eagle and cut paper are just a fetish. And the cut paper itself, which is already losing its appeal due to the stupid politics of the elite of the LIE empire, is depreciating every day (US dollar inflation has broken all records since its existence).
      2. Morgan
        Morgan
        0
        1 February 2022 21: 32
        and we are no longer an appendage of the West

        - absolutely to the point, for the most part already an appendage of China.
    3. sH, arK
      sH, arK
      +4
      30 January 2022 12: 20
      The fact that Russia is being put into zuczwang in relation to Durkaina is understandable. But she has to sacrifice because no one is interested in supporting her. The sharp degradation of the industry with the high conceit of the population led to difficulties in relation to Durkaina with all contractors. The country has already been "sucked out" to a large extent, the able-bodied population has actually temporarily emigrated from it, and the rest is ineffective because it largely consists of old people, sick and poorly educated and incapacitated citizens. That is why the country has become a burden for all parties. This is not at all the country that was formed on the ruins of the USSR. Over the past 30 years, it has not only not developed, but has rapidly degraded!

      As for Russia, for all its problems, you have to be a complete idiot (in the original sense of the word) to consider it an agrarian and raw materials "appendage". First you need to understand the meaning of this definition. Russia itself scouts, mines, processes and sells ... There are practically no PSAs in Russia, and those that remain are a legacy of the "liberal democratic" period. Yes, the level of redistribution in trade with the West leaves much to be desired, but this is largely an artificial limitation. Many of your camp have already called us either "Upper Volta with rockets", or "gas station" to the delight of our liberalism, but they only have to "bark" from afar ... Up close - it's scary ...
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa
        0
        30 January 2022 20: 04
        Quote: sH, arK
        Russia is put in zukzwang in relation to Durcaina

        Zugzwang (German Zugzwang "compulsion to move") ... Shark, hi
        This is an apt remark. And what is the most disgusting thing, based on an analysis of the current situation around the LPR / DPR, which has all 100% grounds ... And the hand of an experienced provocateur of MI6 and the CIA is immediately visible. Anglo-Saxons in their repertoire!
        So. Our Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry have repeatedly stated that special forces of the Yankees and Toms arrived in the conflict zone. In the area of ​​​​2 settlements, chemical reagents of unknown origin appeared (most likely they will make a binary thread, scoundrels!). The Nazis delivered the uniforms of the Russian troops and militiamen of the NM Donbass to the front line. In short, everything is prepared for a "chemical attack" of the Russian Armed Forces against the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In fact, this is the naked German operation "Canned food" in Gleiwitz on the eve of the Nazi capture of Poland in 1939. On the eve of the corrupt Western media will sing an aria about the threat of the use of chemical weapons by Russians ... And the provocation itself under TV cameras, where the OUN-sheep will be in our field uniform and "blur" in the purest Russian language ... (And this is all live, via communication satellites!....on the heads of "careless Parisians" (c).
        This will be the reason for the comprehensive attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Donetsk, the appeal of the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the UN, and to NATO countries for assistance in repelling the "unmotivated aggression" of the Russian Federation against a sovereign state using prohibited means of warfare ... We simply cannot refuse to respond to this we can!!!
        The period is the beginning of the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing. Thus, a double blow to the PRC.
        That is why Washington is so stubbornly driving its citizens out of country 404. The thing is that it has already planned this and is ready to conduct an American-style "zugzwang"!
        It remains for us to oppose them with "Alekhine's defense"! ("Walk like a horse! Never see a century of freedom" !!! (c) - from closed positions with a powerful rocket and artillery strike, sweep away all previously identified targets and iron the positions with drones - for starters! AHA)
        Let's see who plays chess better.
        IMHO.
      2. Joker62
        Joker62
        0
        1 February 2022 11: 50
        ... they have to "bark" from afar ... Near - it's scary ...

        It's scary to "bark" up close because you can get a face. wassat And liberals, as you know, always value their skin and corrupt soul. am
    4. Igor Viktorovich Berdin
      Igor Viktorovich Berdin
      0
      1 February 2022 10: 26
      A. Macedonian and Genghis Khan wanted to spit on the economy of the countries they conquered.
  2. Miffer
    Miffer
    +1
    30 January 2022 11: 31
    After all, no one knows exactly how Russia will react to a potential provocation.

    Never plot against Russia, for it will respond to any of your tricks with its unpredictable stupidity.

    - Otto von Bismarck
  3. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    +4
    30 January 2022 13: 16
    Quote: Mikhail L.
    Is it the West supplying Russia with energy resources?

    The US supplies gas to China and Europe. So the US is a raw material appendage of China and Europe?
    Your criteria are very simple.

    It can be said differently: Germany and France are an automobile appendage of Russia.

    But seriously speaking, there is such a thing as specialization.
    To demonize the supply of resources is stupid.
    1. Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover
      -8
      30 January 2022 13: 58
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      To demonize the supply of resources is stupid.

      Google "Dutch disease". Today, minerals have become the curse of Russia.
      1. tulip
        tulip
        +3
        30 January 2022 14: 34
        the curse of Russia is corruption and orientation towards the so-called Western liberal values. And the profit from resources can be used for very good things if you approach it smartly. So far, this is all in its infancy - but something is being done
        1. Oleg Rambover
          Oleg Rambover
          -7
          30 January 2022 18: 19
          Quote: Mikhail Alekseev
          orientation towards the so-called Western liberal values.

          Can you suggest others?

          Quote: Mikhail Alekseev
          And the profit from resources can be used for very good things if you approach it smartly. So far, this is all in its infancy - but something is being done

          That no one has succeeded. Usually, profits are spent on consolidating the existing regime and enriching the Elbasy's entourage.
          1. tulip
            tulip
            +2
            30 January 2022 18: 32
            full of other options - the same Chinese - where you can have state regulation and billionaires and people live better than they lived 30 years ago)))
            they made a Maidan in Ukraine - they threw off their Yanuk Elbasy and put a bunch of other Elbasy and murderers in addition, and life began to get worse every 1000))) I somehow feel reluctant that in Russia it was exactly the same)
            I don’t have any specific option other than Stalin’s - but the fact that Russia’s main enemy is corruption is a fact for me.
            1. Oleg Rambover
              Oleg Rambover
              -6
              30 January 2022 19: 23
              Where is it full? The same eggs, only in profile. The communist ideology is a Western product, the flesh of the flesh of libertarianism. I find it hard to believe that you are a supporter of the idea of ​​the destruction of the state as a form of exploitation of workers. In the Stalinist constitution of 36, human rights were spelled out. They were quite liberal. The Russians also live better than before.

              Quote: Mikhail Alekseev
              they made a Maidan in Ukraine - they threw off their Yanuk Elbasy

              You are confusing cause and effect. All sorts of elbasy lead states to such a state of failed state. This does not happen from a good life.

              Quote: Mikhail Alekseev
              I somehow feel reluctant that in Russia it was exactly the same

              I don't want the same. Therefore, I hope that a certain Pak Chung-hee will come to power in the Russian Federation, if there are no reforms from the top, they will come from the bottom and will not seem to anyone.
              1. tulip
                tulip
                +2
                30 January 2022 19: 59
                libertarianism is too broad a concept - I meant other liberal values, more related to the economy - with the subordination of everything to the main navel of the earth, which calls itself the most liberal and democratic country in the galaxy))) but I won’t argue - this can drag on for a long time)
              2. isofat
                isofat
                +1
                30 January 2022 21: 09
                Quote: Oleg Rambover
                Therefore, I hope that a certain Pak Chung-hee will come to power in the Russian Federation ...

                Olezhek, your hopes for Hitler did not materialize, and Devil High Punk will not help either. laughing
              3. Energetik42
                Energetik42
                -1
                31 January 2022 15: 06
                And how will he come if there is no change of power in the Russian Federation?
                1. Oleg Rambover
                  Oleg Rambover
                  -2
                  31 January 2022 15: 31
                  How how? So.
                  Nothing is eternal under the Moon.
            2. Tuttu-ruttu
              Tuttu-ruttu
              +1
              31 January 2022 00: 36
              A great example of democratic elections. On the wave "for the world" to push through the clown who, having received power, will do what he is told.
            3. Energetik42
              Energetik42
              -2
              31 January 2022 15: 04
              Is it worse to live in Ukraine than in Russia? The minimum wage in Ukraine is higher than in Russia, the average salary is the same, the prices are the same.
              1. tulip
                tulip
                -2
                7 February 2022 14: 55
                the minimum wage in ukraine is a fetish with which you rush about))) In ukraine there are a lot of people who receive less than the so-called official minmilka, since the minimum wage in ukraine is not mandatory - just the minimum wage is calculated for the same bureaucrats. The payment for housing and communal services in Ukraine is already much higher than in Russia, prices have also become higher for many things in stores. The average salary is less than in Russia. Crowds of "rich" ukrovs go to work in Russia, and not Russians go to Ukraine to earn money. So keep your Svidomo manuals on how you live "richly" and how we eat the last hedgehog in Russia - there are no fools to listen to this - only if your hypocritical colleagues support you)))
  4. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    +2
    30 January 2022 14: 01
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    Today, minerals have become the curse of Russia

    I know this opinion, but I do not agree with it.
    Enemies implement this opinion because it does not suggest any solution and distracts from the real problems. That is disorienting the society.
  5. yo yo
    yo yo
    +1
    30 January 2022 14: 23
    Ukraine is afraid that in the event of a Russian attack, Russia may take away the last lacy underpants.
    1. Pandiurin
      Pandiurin
      +1
      30 January 2022 18: 22
      Quote from yo-yo
      Ukraine is afraid that in the event of a Russian attack, Russia may take away the last lacy underpants.

      WE and co. wanted to play their favorite game about Russia's aggression, and, as a result, get bonuses in the form of grandmas and an increase in the status of "recognition by a Western master" useful for internal political showdowns.

      But the scale of hysteria was simply gigantic, Ze was simply afraid of what it could result in. They didn’t manage to get money from this scandal, they slapped weapons, but they either had to pay for it or they hung up loans, the hryvnia collapsed, capital outflow, they probably promised some money in debt to support the pants, but the overall situation in the economy sank greatly and the prospects for the economy deteriorated sharply . Well, the deterioration of the social sphere.

      Those. Ze participated in the Western movement, but in the end he didn’t earn anything, only losses, in everything.
  6. Tuttu-ruttu
    Tuttu-ruttu
    +1
    31 January 2022 00: 30
    There will be a provocation for sure, everything is being prepared for this.
  7. Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas
    0
    31 January 2022 03: 15
    I think if the banderlogs turn up in the Donbass, then they will be brought down only in the Donbass.