What price will the Russian economy pay "for Ukraine"

70

In response to a possible invasion of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine, the United States and its allies are threatening Moscow not with war, let alone a Third World Nuclear War, but economic sanctions. There is even talk of personal sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could lead to a rupture of diplomatic relations with the West. How far can the Americans really go in their sanctions war against Russia?

When discussing possible restrictive measures against our country, they are usually conditionally divided into “soft” and “hard”. So what can be the retribution "for Ukraine"?



"Soft" sanctions


Since 2014, Russia has been periodically threatened with disconnection from the SWIFT system according to the “Iranian scenario”. The US and its allies managed to create a lot of economic problems for the Islamic Republic by artificially isolating Iranian banks from this international financial system. But is it possible to pull off this number today with our country?

With a strong desire, nothing is impossible, but the feasibility of such measures is highly questionable.

At first, over the past years, Russia has created its own analogue of SWIFT - SPFS (Financial Message Transfer System), as well as the internal payment system "Mir". This means that disconnecting from SWIFT will no longer bring down the Russian financial system, but will only complicate its life. It will not work to isolate our country either, since the PRC has also created its own analogue of SWIFT - the system of international payments in yuan CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or China Interbank Payments System), to which a number of Russian banks have already connected. That is, there will be problems, costs will rise, but the desired result of the sanctions will not work.

Secondly, to disconnect Russia from SWIFT, the Americans will first have to knock out their European partners, and this is not an easy task. The Russian Federation and the EU are major trading partners, and Europe still needs our raw materials, for the purchase of which it is necessary to pay somehow.

Targeted US sanctions against Russian banks seem much more realistic. We are talking about a ban on transactions with dollars, for the introduction of which Washington does not need to ask someone for permission. There are already precedents: AB Rossiya and SMP-Bank no longer have the right to conduct non-cash payments in US currency. In order to forcibly disable any Russian bank from using the dollar, the US Treasury just needs to add it to its SDN (Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons) sanctions list.

Most likely, the disconnection of the domestic financial system from the US currency will occur in stages. First, some large backbone bank - Gazprombank or VEB, or, say, Promsvyazbank, which is closely associated with the RF Ministry of Defense, will get into the "black list". The last option seems to be the most realistic. Instead of the dollar, it will theoretically be possible to make payments in euros, but the experience of Rossiya Bank showed that the Europeans followed the example of their allies and closed correspondent accounts in euros for it.

Here, much will depend on whether the sanctions turn out to be targeted or whether they gradually cover the entire financial sector of Russia. In the latter case, Moscow will have to move closer to Beijing, Washington's main geopolitical rival.

"Hard" sanctions


We consider it necessary to include a possible ban on the export to Russia of high-tech products containing software, components, or using US patents and licenses as “tough” restrictive measures. It is very serious.

Under the liberal slogan “we will buy everything we need abroad with petrodollars,” a significant deindustrialization took place in our country. western equipment, technique, the software is now used everywhere, up to the defense sector. In the event of a ban on the export of products using American technology, we can suddenly find ourselves with empty shelves in hypermarkets, without new smartphones, laptops, TVs, refrigerators, without cars and spare parts for them, without imported components for shipbuilding and aircraft construction, etc. The dreaded word “deficiency” may become a reality again. Of course, in the end, China will help replace this import, but obviously with a price mark-up “for risk”. Such will be the retribution for "liberalism" in the economy and the opening of its domestic market to transnational corporations.

Can we somehow respond to the West's technological embargo? Unless he voluntarily shot himself in the foot by banning the export of hydrocarbons to Europe and the United States. Thus, Russia will lose a third of its budget revenues, which will definitely not benefit economic development. Our oil and gas will undoubtedly be bought in China, but at first they will knock out huge discounts “fraternally”.

As you can see, in any case, Western sanctions will lead Russia to China, but in the "hard" version, we will finally turn into an economic colony of the Celestial Empire. Do the US and EU need it? Probably not.

Therefore, a “soft” version of restrictive measures “for Ukraine” seems more likely.
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  1. -12
    26 January 2022 13: 03
    We are already on the active part of the path to becoming a raw material colony of the PRC. Plus, only about 8 million Russian population in the Far East. The mobilization resource there is close to zero. The transfer of KTOF Marine Corps units to Belarus shows that in the West, beyond the Urals with mobre resources unfavorably. Recruitment for a contract is stalling, as the system only works with a repeated or multiple extension of the contract.
    If the new sanctions plunge the townsfolk into the 70s, into the 90s, the second perestroika, and even according to someone else's plan, the country will not survive. That perestroika was sustained on the Soviet, primarily moral, reserve.
  2. -9
    26 January 2022 13: 11
    Under the liberal slogan “we will buy everything we need abroad with petrodollars,” a significant deindustrialization took place in our country.

    Does the author understand Putin and his team as liberals?
    Vladimir Vladimirovich dreamed of building an energy power, and he succeeded.
    https://iz.ru/news/312142

    As you can see, in any case, Western sanctions will lead Russia to China, but in the "hard" version, we will finally turn into an economic colony of the Celestial Empire. Do the US and EU need it? Probably not.

    In any case, you and I, ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation, will pay for this with the well-being of our families.
    1. -5
      26 January 2022 13: 36
      Does the author understand Putin and his team as liberals?

      Yes, Medvedev, Kudrin, Gref, Siluanov, Nabiullina, Chubais and others.
      The only difference between you and them is that you are not at the feeder. You will be the same.
      1. -1
        26 January 2022 15: 14
        This is not very smart. You don't know me at all and make such stupid statements. With the same success, we can say that you, having seized the feeder, will be the same. Moreover, if not all the characters you listed, then exactly through one were members of the CPSU. And our country was pulled apart in the 90s not by mythical liberals, but by people with a rich party background. Why shouldn't you be the same? Even in China, where there is no smell of liberalism, orthodox communists drag everything that lies badly as if it were not in themselves, there is no comparison with liberal democracies. And the people you listed can only be called liberals from a big hangover.
      2. +1
        26 January 2022 15: 49
        I voted for GDP for the first time after the Crimean events. Before them, there were many questions and doubts, but after they disappeared almost completely. Yes, these names (Medvedev, Kudrin, Gref, Siluanov, Nabiullina, Chubais) raise very big questions. And if earlier their presence at posts could still somehow be justified by the unwillingness to "spoil relations with their curators" - then what is preventing now is completely incomprehensible!

        But the fact that the GDP has gone into aggravation already inspires confidence and support, because we know the alternative very well!

        As for the sanctions, now the project of total globalization has clearly cracked. And it, globalization, makes life very difficult not only for us, it has long been a worldwide, global problem, although according to the logic of the same WTO, if the WTO conditions were met, this should not have happened.
        And although the US and the EU were initially positioned as the main beneficiaries of globalization, even laws written "for themselves" are a LAW, and it had to be fulfilled. But alas ... So ahead - "break, not build." And war in one form or another is almost inevitable! The only question is when, where and who and with whom ...
    2. -13
      26 January 2022 14: 42
      A good President. Built the country into someone else's project. And the sheriff will punish for a little rasping.
      1. -4
        26 January 2022 15: 15
        The next one will definitely be worse. Although it would seem.
        1. -15
          26 January 2022 15: 20
          Russia is like Kazakhstan, like Ukraine and Belarus. One format. Not the creators of the project, but its participants, unwitting.
          1. -2
            26 January 2022 15: 28
            Is there an alternative? Has anyone managed to create their own project?
            1. -7
              26 January 2022 18: 20
              There is no alternative. And there won’t be. The President will be in his 7th decade. In 2024 he will go on to the next term. As a man of respectable age, he will not be prone to jerks and changes. This means that his crew will be from acquaintances, painfully, elderly "sailors."
              1. -4
                26 January 2022 20: 47
                And if you get rid of personalities. Is there an alternative to embedding in someone else's project? Has anyone else in the world succeeded?
                1. -7
                  26 January 2022 21: 02
                  There is such an alternative. But it is rather unscientific fiction. Looking at today's Russia. Germany succeeded in the 30s and 40s. But for a very short time.
                  1. -1
                    26 January 2022 21: 06
                    Quote: gunnerminer
                    There is such an alternative. But this is rather unscientific fiction. Looking at today's Russia.

                    I would say that this is unscience fiction looking at the whole current world.

                    Quote: gunnerminer
                    Germany succeeded in the 30s and 40s, but for a very short time.


                    Judging by this photo, it didn't work out too well.
  3. +7
    26 January 2022 13: 21
    calculate what the ostrich tactics will cost Russia or the example of Ukraine does not teach anything
    an example of what the West has in store for those who give up
  4. +4
    26 January 2022 13: 24
    In response to a possible invasion of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine, the United States and its allies threaten Moscow not with war, let alone the Third World Nuclear War, but with economic sanctions.

    And how will the States threaten the Russian Federation if the Russian Federation refuses to feed Ukraine, supply it with energy carriers and forbid Belarusians to do this?
    Also sanctions? So they themselves imposed an embargo on Cuba. This is an example.
    They themselves will not feed Ukraine, they themselves have food stamps and half of the blacks are on the social network.
  5. +4
    26 January 2022 13: 44
    Can we somehow respond to the West's technological embargo? Unless he voluntarily shot himself in the foot by banning the export of hydrocarbons to Europe and the United States. Thus, Russia will lose a third of its budget revenues, which will definitely not benefit economic development.

    [b]Instead of the dollar, it will theoretically be possible to make payments in euros, but the experience of Rossiya Bank showed that the Europeans followed the example of their allies and closed correspondent accounts in euros for it.

    I wonder how the author suggests further export of hydrocarbons to the West?
    Through some one bank, which the West will allow to use dollars and/or euros?
    And why do we need their dollars or euros if the list of goods that we can purchase will be sharply reduced?
    Will we dig? We already have more exports than imports.

    With "terrible" sanctions, the meaning of trade with the West disappears, and hence the meaning of diplomatic relations.
    And from this position, exactly one step before the war.
    Is the West ready for such a situation?
  6. 123
    +1
    26 January 2022 13: 54
    As you can see, in any case, Western sanctions will lead Russia to China, but in the "hard" version, we will finally turn into an economic colony of the Celestial Empire.

    Are you saying we are turning into a Chinese economic colony?
    1. -8
      26 January 2022 14: 44
      It's been a few years since they've changed.
  7. +1
    26 January 2022 13: 55
    The countries of the European Union are considering the possibility of imposing sanctions against Russia if it provokes "supply restrictions" of gas as an instrument of pressure.

    The West needs our resources. But cheap and on their terms.
    Therefore, there will be war. But not because of Ukraine, but for the possession of cheap Russian resources.
    1. -11
      26 January 2022 14: 46
      We ourselves are strenuously offering these cheap Russian resources. Why fight!
  8. +1
    26 January 2022 14: 10
    The Russian Federation was able to replace "Bush's legs" and turned into an agricultural exporter, but is it not enough to create its own high-tech products - following the example of the same Chinese?
  9. +1
    26 January 2022 14: 14
    Question. Children's.
    If the West refuses to sell high-tech products to Russia, then why would Russia need "a third of budget revenues"?
    1. -6
      26 January 2022 15: 17
      And how will you pay pensions and salaries?
      1. +3
        26 January 2022 15: 24
        Do we pay salaries and pensions in the currency? This is news to me!
      2. +3
        26 January 2022 15: 42
        Rubles. Well, not in dollars. You want to say that without the West Russia will be bent? The USSR lived for 70 years without the backing of the West.
        But, if the task is to lie under the West, then you can always find an excuse.
        This has been discussed a hundred times already. It was only necessary to deliver strictly according to the contract and Europe is blown away. Let your head hurt in Brussels about this.
    2. -4
      26 January 2022 15: 26
      For example, buy food, textiles and chemical products.
      1. +1
        26 January 2022 15: 42
        The amounts are much more modest, since we partially produce food, textiles and chemical products ourselves.
        And imports (even taking into account technology) are less than exports.
        That is, you can sell resources several times less. But for this we will again announce sanctions.
        Because we are obliged to supply the West. Well, that's what they think.
        1. -3
          26 January 2022 17: 54
          Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
          The amounts are much more modest, since we partially produce food, textiles and chemical products ourselves.

          50% machinery, equipment and transport.

          Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
          That is, you can sell resources several times less.

          We can by reducing pensions, public sector salaries, and government spending.

          Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
          Because we are obliged to supply the West. Well, that's what they think.

          This is some nonsense. Americans will be delighted if we stop selling gas and oil to Europe.
  10. 0
    26 January 2022 14: 15
    As you can see, in any case, Western sanctions will lead Russia to China, but in the "hard" version, we will finally turn into an economic colony of the Celestial Empire.

    Nonsense. And not just nonsense, but double nonsense because the word "finally" is used.
    Author, please specify the signs that we are now a colony of China.
    And what do you mean when you write about the final transformation into a colony of China?

    A colony is a dependent territory that is under the control of a stronger foreign state (metropolis)
    1. -9
      26 January 2022 14: 49
      Author, please specify the signs that we are now a colony of China.

      We supply them with raw materials. The People's Republic of China supplies us with complex products. Low value added products in exchange for high value added products. The USSR was a metropolis in relation to its allies or an equal partner in relation to the West. Both politically and economically. The current Russia in the political sense is not yet a colony (thanks to the USSR), but in the economic sense it has long been an absolute colony that cannot even feed itself, despite the fact that it has become a leading grain exporter.
      1. -8
        26 January 2022 15: 47
        The current Russia in the political sense is not yet a colony (thanks to the USSR), but in the economic sense it has long been an absolute colony that cannot even feed itself, despite the fact that it has become a leading grain exporter.

        - Yes, we also began to "export" gold ... - Yes, cleverly so .... - And all to London - and to London; and everything is silent - and silent ...
        - The Chinese have already turned green - they already considered this Russian gold to be theirs ...
        - And they wanted Russia to draw yuan candy wrappers for him ... - And then, all of a sudden ....
        - Yes, and in agriculture - in Russia - also somehow - "not very" ...:

        For potatoes, the share of imported seeds exceeds 90%, sunflower - more than 73%, spring rapeseed - almost 69%; and up to 80% of sugar beet seeds are imported. The same is true for corn seeds. - Yes, and in terms of grain - they have not yet got rid of imported seeds ...

        - My plus to you ...
        1. -6
          26 January 2022 18: 23
          The gold proceeds legally remain in foreign banks.
  11. 0
    26 January 2022 14: 43
    All this is nonsense.

    The sanctions apply to high-tech products and select individuals.
    Poroshenko is under sanctions, and Ukrainian oligarchs travel and live in Russia. And our elite is in London, Italy, and yachts in warm seas. And they don't care about sanctions, such as on Kadyrov. He does not look to the west, but looks to the Muslim east ...

    Colonial products? Once Yusa and Europe even raised duties so that the oligarchs would not fill them up with metal on the cheap. And Russia joined the WTO for this, to drive raw materials to the west without unnecessary fees.
    And then - the GDP "chided". too much Metal, timber, grain, sugar, etc. were taken out. Wow the price has gone up.

    Gas, oil, coal, titanium, aluminum, fertilizers, fuel oil - but at least to Ukraine, until recently.
    Money does not smell.

    And they don't smell. Capitalism.

    Spb-bank was deprived of a dollar? - who cares. Through it, chtol wood, gas, oil, nickel go over the hill .....
    Through it, chtoli iPhones went to Kadyrov and Medvedev, Mercedes and BMW elite?
  12. +2
    26 January 2022 15: 02
    The goal of the fifth column is to intimidate.
    They try to crush any manifestation of state independence, including with the help of traitors.
    These advise:
    "Give the West what it demands.
    Give at the prices and on the terms that they say.
    And don't get into politics.
    Otherwise, the West will punish you."

    They don't try to negotiate with us. Neither about safety, nor about prices.
    And they are also afraid that we will become a colony of China.
    Or what have already become. In clinical cases - that have long been.
    1. -6
      26 January 2022 15: 24
      The role of the sleeping sixth column has not been disclosed. Residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, now
      also Kazakhstan. On Russian territory ..
  13. -4
    26 January 2022 15: 11
    In the meantime, the court and the case - to enter, not to enter -

    The largest bank in the United States by assets, JPMorgan, completely exited the Russian ruble ... JPM, which manages $ 2,6 trillion of client money, on Monday, January 24, closed all remaining positions in Russian currency, citing unforeseeable risks in connection with the increase Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.

    In an interview with Reuters, a bank representative said literally the following -

    We close all of our remaining long ruble positions at a loss. We cannot rule out negative scenarios with a high degree of certainty. Consequently, our existing recommendations for long positions are no longer valid.
    1. 0
      26 January 2022 15: 49
      when shares fall in price, then smart people buy them))) and the exchange rate, and especially the ruble, is primarily speculative
  14. +1
    26 January 2022 15: 20
    Quote: gunnerminer
    We supply them with raw materials. The People's Republic of China supplies us with complex products. Low value added products in exchange for high value added products. The USSR was a metropolis in relation to its allies or an equal partner in relation to the West.

    It's not about the goods, but about the terms of trade.
    In the ability to choose buyers and sellers, set prices and conditions for the sale of their goods.
    Don't try to confuse with a swarm of stupid words.
    The USSR traded in resources, the USA, Canada, Australia, Norway trade in resources and are very pleased with the results.

    A colony is a country that is controlled from outside.
    No need to come up with your own definitions of a colony - it's all just a tricky trick of the fifth column.
    1. +1
      27 January 2022 15: 08
      Perhaps the only correct post for this article! "It's not about goods, but about the conditions of trade" - these words should be carved in marble! "In the ability to choose buyers and sellers, set prices and conditions for the sale of their goods." And here the dog rummaged. Why Russia was dragged into the WTO, but for anything, but not for this statement! Therefore, there are tools to combat what is written in the article. First of all, withdrawal from all foreign (read AMERICAN) organizations. Why do we need them? We have declared a war of suffocation, are we going to follow some rules? So that the one who strangles us does not hurt his hands ??? No rules, Russia in this case is not obliged to comply! The example of Free North Korea is illustrative. War, so war! We will stop all traffic along the Trans-Siberian Railway, the accumulated containers in the sea, the ships in the raids under arrest. Ports only for Chinese counterfeit! That's it, Khan trade, please, across the entire globe, bring your shmurdyak, even block the straits in the Far East, if so. KTOF will cope). Then we turn off the tap for oil and gas, let it burn with a torch rather than drive it to the Europeans, cut the wires, hello to the GOELRO plan and all the lousy Baltic states and traitors in trousers jump from the cold, just like other different Europeans admire the night sky without lighting. Dollars? Yes, take everything. China? Not us, they will come to us. That's how it happened historically. But... that won't happen. Since our president still considers them, dogs torn from a leash, partners. In fact, there is still a huge number of blows and slaps in the face, both financial and economic and social, to turn international trade not into a market, but into a kind of Kiev market, where pan gunnerminer is regularly bought with glass washing and Polish delay).
    2. -5
      27 January 2022 17: 55
      The United States also trades in high-tech products. In Russia, the share of such products is declining. Norway also trades in high-tech products. It has a large tanker fleet. Since there is a fifth column, the country is a colony. For example, in the UK and Germany there is a significant Russian-speaking stratum in society. But there is no Russian fifth column. The same is in the USA. The children of owners, officials of the EU, Great Britain, the USA in Russia do not receive education en masse, their families do not live in Russia.
      China also dictates the terms of trade for Russia.
  15. +1
    26 January 2022 15: 28
    Quote: Igor Pavlovich
    "The largest bank in the US in terms of assets, JPMorgan, has completely withdrawn from the Russian ruble.

    In my opinion, this is the problem of the bank, not the ruble. Especially since it came out at a loss.
    All these empty messages are just an attempt to put pressure, to drive into a stall.
  16. +4
    26 January 2022 16: 10
    In North Korea, despite all the sanctions, there are both smartphones and computers ... it's another matter that not everyone has them, and in the Russian Federation, far from everyone can afford products with a logo in the form of a gnawed apple. As Chinese phones were bought, so the majority will buy them ... And at the expense of the revival of the domestic industry, it is high time to do this by closing all these lackeys of the Pentagon, such as Chubais, in criminal cases. The fact that jobs need to be created in the Russian Federation today is not said only by either a lazy person or an enemy of the people and the Russian state. It's time to move from words to deeds, it's high time.
    1. +1
      27 January 2022 15: 09
      That's what it's about. One would like to ask - why are we standing, whom are we waiting for?
  17. +1
    26 January 2022 16: 24
    Quote: gunnerminer
    A good President. Built the country into someone else's project. And the sheriff will punish for a little rasping.

    Are you talking about Ukraine?
    1. -6
      26 January 2022 18: 23
      Russia became Ukraine? So quickly?
  18. +1
    26 January 2022 18: 02
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    This is some nonsense. Americans will be delighted if we stop selling gas and oil to Europe

    What about Europe?
    1. -4
      26 January 2022 22: 49
      What is Europe? It's a colony of America smile how will they say it will be? I don't think America cares much. Europe will buy elsewhere at market prices, understandably more expensive.
  19. +1
    26 January 2022 18: 28
    Disconnection from the swift, a ban on transactions with dollars, the arrest of gold and foreign exchange reserves, transactions with securities and accounts of legal entities have been threatened for more than a year, because the government and the main bank of the Russian Federation had enough time to prepare.
    Perhaps everything will be decided already during the visit of Vladimir Putin to the PRC for the opening of the Olympic Games - they may well present the USA with a most unpleasant surprise - to agree on the transition to payments for energy resources from dollars to renminbi, the world reserve currency. The infrastructure for such a solution has long been in place, and political and economic prerequisites are pushing for this - threats, blackmail, exorbitant US public debt, etc. Other major world suppliers of energy resources - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Venezuela and consumers - the SCO, the EAEU, ASEAN, the CSTO, etc. can also support such a decision.
    The ban on the export to the Russian Federation of high-tech products containing software, components or using US patents and licenses to one degree or another has always taken place, which is why there is an import substitution program in critical industries and areas, primarily in the military-industrial complex and determining the entire economics of natural monopolies. Secondary goods and consumer goods, the same cars, TVs, tablets, etc. South Korea, Japan, China, Malaysia, Thailand, India and many others, including the EU, will deliver with great pleasure and in an unlimited amount, because the Russian Federation is the largest consumer market in Europe, which is at a loss to ignore.
    The deindustrialization of the Russian Federation flourished after the Yeltsin coup d'état, and during the period of V.V. Putin, new modern enterprises are put into operation several dozen monthly in a variety of industries - from those producing feed and consumer goods to the production of means of production. It would be easier to make sure of this, it would be a desire.
    The answer to the technological embargo was shown by many state formations, but the PRC has become a byword all over the world, where the cloning of foreign goods of interest is put on stream.
    The Russian Federation can turn into a colony only in one case - the collapse into separate state entities, but then it will no longer be the Russian Federation.
  20. +3
    26 January 2022 18: 33
    Quote: gunnerminer
    Russia became Ukraine? So quickly?

    Well, after all, what you wrote:

    Good President. Built the country into someone else's project. And the sheriff will punish for a little rasping

    It's just about Ukraine.
    1. 0
      27 January 2022 15: 13
      Yes, you don’t chew on this Ukrainian, he hardly understands such things, he would have to play three hundred AUGs there, six hundred TB there ... He is not completely normal. thumps.
    2. -5
      27 January 2022 17: 56
      About Russia. You don't live in Ukraine.
  21. 0
    27 January 2022 01: 01
    you don’t have to pay anything for Ukraine, you can only pay for the revival of Russian Little Russia, but you have to restore it, but not only at the expense of the Russians, but also at the expense of the confiscated "good" of Svidomo oligarchs
  22. +1
    27 January 2022 06: 29
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    We can by reducing pensions, public sector salaries, and government spending.

    State revenues will fall in any case. What we will continue to export resources, what not.
    In fact, with its sanctions, the West can devalue its currency for us at least twice.
    And here it is already necessary to choose - to drive resources to the West very cheaply or to refuse trade on such conditions.
    Such sanctions are essentially forcing us to go to war.
    1. -2
      27 January 2022 19: 06
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      State revenues will fall in any case.

      If the Russian Federation turns gas into a political tool, then yes, the supply volumes and state revenues will inevitably fall.
      Why revenues should fall if we continue to export resources in the same volume is not clear.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      In fact, with its sanctions, the West can devalue its currency for us at least twice.

      You know, usually if something is missing (for example, currency for purchases abroad), then it becomes more expensive (for example, currency against the ruble). And we know that in any product and service consumed by a Russian there is a currency component. A direct consequence of the rise in price of everything.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Such sanctions are essentially forcing us to go to war.

      War against whom? Against America and NATO? Then it's just a way of collective suicide.
      1. 0
        27 January 2022 19: 42
        Oleg Rambover, our country is for fair competition. And Russian gas has been turned into an element of politics by unscrupulous competitors. Yes

        In the war, not against anyone, but for their homeland. Different rambovers are annoying. smile
  23. -2
    27 January 2022 07: 15
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    What is Europe? This is a colony of America, as they say it will be?

    I do not agree that the colony, although in this matter it is not important.
    Europe knows how to count money. So far they are satisfied with the US military umbrella.
    When the situation changes for the worse for Europe, it is quite possible that the same France and Germany can change their attitude towards the United States.
    You don't think that the US will start bombing France and Germany, do you?
    1. +1
      27 January 2022 13: 44
      Never say never!
    2. -2
      27 January 2022 19: 13
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      I do not agree that the colony, although in this matter it is not important.

      There was sarcasm about the colony.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Europe knows how to count money. So far they are satisfied with the US military umbrella.
      When the situation changes for the worse for Europe, it is quite possible that the same France and Germany can change their attitude towards the United States.

      You said:

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Because we are obliged to supply the West. Well, that's what they think.

      You and I found out that the United States does not exactly think so. Europe buys completely on market terms. All these Zircons, Vanguards with all sorts of fittings appeared only because the Russian Federation was selling resources to Europe. I don’t know what they think in the West (and how you got into their thoughts), but the leadership of the Russian Federation was happy with everything when concluding contracts.
      1. +1
        27 January 2022 19: 35
        Quote: Oleg Rambover
        All these Zircons, Vanguards with all sorts of fittings appeared only because the Russian Federation was selling resources to Europe.

        Why are you proposing not to trade, for example, in gas, and you expect the other side to stop arming?

        PS I stopped trying to penetrate your thoughts, useless work. laughing
  24. +1
    28 January 2022 04: 04
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    Europe buys completely on market terms.

    It suits them when the price is low. And does not get tired when the price rises.
    Europe is changing the rules to force suppliers to sell goods cheaply.
    And she doesn't care about our interests.
    And Europe does not support the United States because of colonial dependence, but because of its economic interests.
    In the case of expensive American gas, this will not suit Europe. She needs American pressure on Russia to get cheap Russian gas, not expensive American gas.
    1. -2
      28 January 2022 17: 52
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      It suits them when the price is low. And does not get tired when the price rises.

      Did they tell you that themselves? I remember oil was bought for 100 bucks or more only in years.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Europe is changing the rules to force suppliers to sell goods cheaply.

      While at them it turns out to within on a turn.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      In the case of expensive American gas, this will not suit Europe. She needs American pressure on Russia to get cheap Russian gas, not expensive American gas.

      So America needs to sell its expensive gas. With what fright will they exert such pressure that a competitor would sell more gas? It is in America's interests to stop gas supplies from Russia altogether and promote its own.

      PS Where do you get all this from?
  25. +1
    28 January 2022 04: 13
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    the leadership of the Russian Federation at the conclusion of contracts suited everything.

    And there is.
    Now they are not satisfied with attempts to force us to supply gas in excess of the contracts.
    And talk about the need to impose sanctions if the Russian Federation does not satisfy the wishes of Europe or even Ukraine and Moldova. As we know sanctions, fines are imposed on Russia easily and with pleasure.
    1. -2
      28 January 2022 17: 59
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Now they are not satisfied with attempts to force us to supply gas in excess of the contracts.

      Why? I sold more, more money, more money than any Zircons.
      Besides, if Europe needs gas, then one way or another it will get it, but from other sources. This will increase supplier competition. What is the use of this RF?

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      And talk about the need to impose sanctions if the Russian Federation does not satisfy the wishes of Europe or even Ukraine and Moldova.

      What kind of conversations are these?

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      As we know sanctions, fines are imposed on Russia easily and with pleasure.

      You know, I don't. Sanctions lead to losses and European business. Therefore, America imposes sanctions much easier (trade turnover is practically zero), and the Europeans are much harder.
  26. 0
    28 January 2022 08: 15
    Lord .. How did these all-weeders get it. Iran is fifty years under them, so what? Slowly building reactors, developing aircraft industry. Not bad considering the starting opportunities after the amers drape. There will always be people in the world who are hungry to earn money. Capitalism, however .. Any whim for money ..
  27. 0
    29 January 2022 13: 44
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    So America needs to sell its expensive gas. With what fright will they exert such pressure that a competitor would sell more gas? It is in America's interests to stop gas supplies from Russia altogether and promote its own.

    I'm talking about the fact that the interests of the United States and Europe differ. For some reason this thought never reaches you.
    Probably, nevertheless, somewhere in your head there is a US colony about Europe.
    Europe has given up political independence, but it is protecting its economy.
    And the economy can become a bone of contention in relations with the United States. However, I have already written to you personally several times.
    1. -2
      29 January 2022 21: 59
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      I'm talking about the fact that the interests of the United States and Europe differ.

      You said:

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Because we are obliged to supply the West. Well, that's what they think.

      "West" in my understanding is Europe, and the USA, and Japan and Australia. And using the example of gas, I just tried to convey to you the idea that the interests of individual representatives of the so-called "West" may differ, and quite strongly. That representatives of the "West" of the United States just believe that we should not supply the "West". Apparently, I managed to convey this idea to you and it makes me happy.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Probably, nevertheless, somewhere in your head there is a US colony about Europe.

      I have? Fear God! Especially after your "Europe has abandoned its political independence."

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      Europe has given up political independence, but it is protecting its economy.

      It is impossible to agree with you. Someone smart said:

      Politics is a concentrated expression of the economy

      Politics is primarily the struggle of various groups for economic interests. This is the essence of politics. The rejection of political independence automatically entails the rejection of economic independence.

      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      And the economy can become a bone of contention in relations with the United States.

      It has been many times and will be many times.
  28. 0
    31 January 2022 17: 18
    Now the world is entering very turbulent financial and economic times. Against this background, any sanctions and counter-sanctions are much more dangerous for developed countries than if they were introduced in calm, stable times. It is not yet a fact that the "hard" sanctions scenario is not beneficial for Russia.
  29. -1
    1 February 2022 17: 50
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    The rejection of political independence automatically entails the rejection of economic independence.

    It is obvious that this is not the case.
    As long as American policy does not harm the German economy, the Germans do not get involved in politics.
    I mean a big, strategic policy. The world gendarme brings order to the world, Germany behaves like a disciplined burgher. Working.
    But when there is a significant and obvious harm to their economy, they begin to negotiate with the United States.
    And it happens that they go to a meeting.
    Germany is rather a junior partner of the US. Has an advisory vote.
    But if the benefits of cooperation with the United States become much less useful, then options are possible.
    So far this seems unlikely, but the situation could change in just a few days.
  30. -1
    1 February 2022 17: 52
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    "West" in my understanding is Europe, and the USA, and Japan and Australia.

    Yes, I didn't express myself exactly. When I wrote the West, I meant Europe, not the West as a whole.
  31. -1
    1 February 2022 18: 02
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    Why? I sold more, more money, more money than any Zircons.
    Besides, if Europe needs gas, then one way or another it will get it, but from other sources.

    Now this is not so. Sold more, the price fell, received less money, not more.
    Standard situation for classical capitalism.
    Let Europe choke on SP-2 and pay a dollar and a half per cubic meter.

    They decided to make SP-2 a weapon against Russia.
    It is perfectly fair to make the price of gas a weapon against Europe.
    As the search for other, non-Russian gas shows, Europe will have to suck for another two or three years.
    And over the years, Gazprom was paid so much for 6-7 years.
    Moreover, prices will never return to their previous values.
    Europe has lost the competition to both the US and China.