Forbes: Russia has rehearsed a naval invasion of Ukraine, but this is the least of Kiev's problems

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American experts continue to predict possible military scenarios for Russia's actions against Ukraine, being confident in Moscow's desire to unleash a war with Kiev. According to Forbes, the Russians will start fighting on several main fronts.


According to analysts, the Russian marines will play an important role in a likely conflict. The targets of the black beret units can be various objects along the Ukrainian coast. At the same time, Ukraine can be cut off from the Black and Azov Seas.

Nevertheless, the Russian amphibious assault will meet fierce resistance, and its advance will be complicated by difficult terrain, according to Forbes. The Ukrainian fleet is a symbolic force, but Kiev is actively arming itself with anti-ship systems. The Turkish TB-2 drones purchased by the Ukrainians can direct the anti-ship missiles at targets.

If Russia intends to occupy all Ukrainian ports, its naval forces may be too dispersed. Therefore, according to Forbes, it is likely that it is the ground units from the Crimea and Donbass that will play a decisive role in the battles for the coast of Ukraine.

To date, there are not many warships in the Black Sea Fleet, so it is very likely that Moscow will use combat units from the Caspian, Baltic and Northern fleets, as it did in the spring of 2021 during exercises in the Black Sea.

Back in April last year, Russia rehearsed a naval invasion of Ukraine with an amphibious landing in Crimea, which involved at least four Project 775 large landing ships, one 1171 class large landing ship, and three landing craft. All together they could land several thousand Marines, which is not much at all.

If Moscow wants to control the Ukrainian coast, it must seize the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk on the Sea of ​​Azov and Odessa and Nikolaev on the Black Sea. But this is more than the Black Sea Fleet can do alone.


All this means that amphibious assaults are not the biggest threat Ukraine would face in the event of a Russian invasion. The Russian Federation can launch a tank offensive from the Donbas direction and from the territory of Crimea. Each of these strikes will include dozens of battalion tactical groups and hundreds of tanks.
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  1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 24 January 2022 11: 09
    -6
    To date, there are not many warships in the Black Sea Fleet, so it is very likely that Moscow will use combat units from the Caspian, Baltic and Northern fleets, as it did in the spring of 2021 during exercises in the Black Sea.

    This would be a dangerous decision. To expose the above fleets in this way. Especially the KSF. It is also understaffed, given the size of its operational area. The Caspian Red Banner Flotilla has mainly RTOs, large boats. In the autumn-winter period of the Black Sea, they can go to sea on them , only for a short time, and not far from the base.
    1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 24 January 2022 11: 23
      -1
      It's cool, some "experts" talk stupid nonsense about unrealizable landings and hallucinate about hundreds of tanks, the other is even more "expert", but at the yard level deepened and expanded the invented nonsense and added schizophrenic details and fears ... complete "expertism" is simple. You, mister gunnerminer from Ukraine, should not take medicine "only for a short time, and not far from the base", in the sense of not leaving the ward or warning the orderlies.
      1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 24 January 2022 11: 56
        -4
        Landing troops on the Black Sea coast can be landed to support the PMR. But it will be impossible to hold its bridgehead for longer than 1 month. First of all, because of the modesty of the outfit of the forces of the VKS KChF. I will upset you involuntarily, I am a citizen of Russia. I am proud of it.
        1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
          DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 24 January 2022 12: 17
          -1
          I am not upset and will not be upset. I don't care about you. But you are some kind of wrong citizen of Russia. Are you a conscript? Or a postgraduate? As for the rest, you're delusional again.

          You are probably still from Ukraine. One of...
          1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
            gunnerminer (gunner miner) 24 January 2022 12: 52
            -6
            To fight for Russia is a normal desire of all draft ages. For this, the CSTO was created, for this we pay taxes. It is not without reason that military labor is glorified on TV channels around the clock, encouraging early draft ages to be faithful to the orders and directives of the National Guard and the Ministry of Defense of Russia. Plus for your patriotic comment. In a difficult period, they are needed like air, more than guided munitions.
            1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
              DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 24 January 2022 12: 56
              -1
              You minus. For an empty comment.
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  2. Russophile Offline Russophile
    Russophile (Igor) 24 January 2022 21: 55
    +1
    The funny thing is that you are downvoted by people who do not distinguish between BDK and TFR. But extremely versed in maritime affairs
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 24 January 2022 22: 34
      -4
      I know. So DESO went south. And NATO begins exercises in the North. The exercises can turn into a real landing operation. Let it be distracting. But the commotion is guaranteed. The Civil Code of the Russian Navy has few resources for a modern and adequate response. Especially when the events of the situation change with speed, and with a variety of kaleidoscopes. We are trailing behind the events, recalling the successive reductions in the Armed Forces. What if the Japanese dare to simulate a landing operation on Sakhalin, or on the Kuriles?
      1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
        DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 25 January 2022 03: 55
        -2
        What if the Martians imitate an attack on your Ukraine?
    2. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 25 January 2022 03: 54
      -3
      Do not make me laugh. If you are (a very bad word), and this can be seen from your post, then others are not. And many are well versed and not only in the notation). Well, you continue to listen to this Ukrainian in his whining). You are an expert too, right?
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  • Uneven Offline Uneven
    Uneven (X) 24 January 2022 11: 21
    0
    The West is leading Putin along the path of Hussein in order to lure him to Ukraine, similar to the history of Iraq and Kuwait and a similar end to the party.
  • beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 24 January 2022 14: 11
    +1
    All this anti-Russian hysteria (the dizzying "alarm" around, sucked from the finger, "bogey" about the allegedly imminent "Russian attack on Ukraine"), all the last months pumped up by "non-living" Westernoids (originally flowing from Fashington), reminds me of some "command and staff games" of NATO countries with the widespread involvement of "universal means of mass idiocy". request
    There is (in many ways) a clear preparation of the Fashington "hegemons" and their eurovassals for aggression against the Russian Federation(and, as a result, unleashing a large-scale military conflict in Europe, which the European members of NATO, especially the disenfranchised mongrels, "young members" from the former "Warsaw bloc", amer hope to wage exclusively "on foreign territory", something like the new "Drang nah Osten" led by the distraught Fashington and the "wet dream" of all these "pan-European" occupiers - "Wehrmacht parade in Moscow"??!).
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 24 January 2022 22: 39
      -1
      NATO's anti-Russian hysteria is a product of someone else's ideology. Societies where they think about their own benefit, about their pocket. But her hysteria was not foreseen by analysts and forecasters of the Foreign Ministry.
  • AND Offline AND
    AND 24 January 2022 19: 56
    +1
    Quote: Uneven
    The West is leading Putin along the path of Hussein in order to lure him to Ukraine, similar to the history of Iraq and Kuwait and a similar end to the party.

    Both gunnerminer and Uneven are very funny Euro-propaganda. Do you guys have a conscience?
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 24 January 2022 22: 37
      -2
      Now the work of the FSB, the VKR (military counterintelligence serving the headquarters and the CP), the American and NATO agents has increased dramatically. What directives do they send to their informers and saboteurs among large owners, among officials, among business executives, among senators? I hate the EU and NATO. You are among friends on this resource.
    2. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 25 January 2022 03: 57
      0
      Yes, both are visible from the zhmErinki. Ukraine is full of them. Lost units.
      They had no conscience. As usual - lie ...

      This so-called. gunnerminer was completely hysterical, at first he was talking nonsense, then he began to push slogans, was offended and burst into tears. You yourself have seen everything, dear members of the forum. These are the experts in Ukraine now living, "partners" and "brothers"). But in fact, all of them (very very bad words).
  • AND Offline AND
    AND 25 January 2022 08: 08
    0
    Quote: gunnerminer
    Now the work of the FSB, the VKR (military counterintelligence serving the headquarters and the CP), the American and NATO agents has increased dramatically. What directives do they send to their informers and saboteurs among large owners, among officials, among business executives, among senators? I hate the EU and NATO. You are among friends on this resource.

    Your speech is very similar to the phrases of artificial intelligence Sir. You always answer only as a propaganda machine. It can be seen that the Euro-American headquarters of cyber troops in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Ukraine is doing its dirty work.
  • Expert_Analyst_Forecaster Offline Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 January 2022 07: 55
    0
    Quote: gunnerminer
    So DESO went south. And NATO begins exercises in the North. The exercises can turn into a real landing operation. Let it be distracting. But the commotion is guaranteed.

    My friend, do you even understand what nonsense you are talking about?
    NATO attacks Russia - this is immediately a world nuclear war.
    Not a commotion. After all, no one will understand whether this operation is distracting or not.
    The Strategic Missile Forces will inflict several hundred distracting strikes on the centers for making such a decision.
  • Expert_Analyst_Forecaster Offline Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 January 2022 08: 10
    0
    Quote: Uneven
    The West is leading Putin along the path of Hussein in order to lure him to Ukraine, similar to the history of Iraq and Kuwait and a similar end to the party.

    Well, yes. Dreams of teenagers that an adult will come and solve his problems.
    But the adults talked and decided that the best and most correct option is to flog a stupid teenager so that he does NOT get involved in adult affairs.
    Will not climb into adult affairs - there will be no adult problems.