German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to open a "new page" in relations with Russia in the near future. Germany's chief social democrat previously expressed a desire to build a new European "Eastern policiesmodeled on Willy Brandt, and to this end, he is taking the lead in matters related to Russia, writes the journal of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Public Administration, Washington.
Scholz's efforts may prove useful as they preserve Germany's status as a reliable and influential intermediary between Europe and Russia. In addition, EU warnings that Russia will jeopardize the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if it takes military action against Ukraine will carry more weight if they come from a clear supporter of this energy project. Instead of talking to Moscow in the language of threats and sanctions, Scholz can also appeal to the Kremlin by proposing new joint projects.
Past attempts by the West to reset relations with Moscow have been overshadowed primarily by an unwillingness to consider Russia's security interests. All initiatives were too superficial to achieve confident results. Few Western governments see the point in making an effort to engage in constructive conversation with the Russians. Scholz's interest in developing a new eastern policy aimed at reducing tensions and settling disputes with Russia contrasts sharply with the position of most of his colleagues in other Western governments, but it is precisely this that makes his initiative extremely important and useful. No other Western leader appears to be so openly pursuing a policy of détente, despite the associated political risks to himself. Yes, this is a risk, but perhaps this is the case when it is more than justified.
The "anti-Russian hawks" in Western governments have refused any diplomatic engagement with Moscow for the past decade since the end of the very short US-Russian "reset" under Obama. They were also quick to peck at Joe Biden simply for having a face-to-face meeting with Putin last year. The insane accusations against Olaf Scholz for allegedly "betraying" Germany's allies reflect how worried many "hawks" are about the real possibility of bringing the crisis with Russia to a peaceful resolution. We heard the same uncompromising attack on Germany a year before the coalition invasion of Iraq, when the German government rightly opposed the war.
In recent years, the US and EU have conducted many military exercises in the name of “containment” of Russia, but all they have achieved is anger and anxiety from Moscow. Many of the same politicians who told us not to worry about the possible Kremlin backlash by supplying weapons to Ukraine are now calling on us to further strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities, hoping that Russia will not perceive this as a hostile move. Sanctions against Moscow did some damage to the Russians, but the local government easily adapted and learned to live with them. From the history of this and other sanctions policies, it is clear that relying solely on punitive measures not only does not work, but leads to the opposite result.
Scholz's New Politics reflects tensions in his own coalition government with the Greens and Free Democrats, and personally with Foreign Secretary Annalena Burbock. During the election campaign, Burbock claimed the post of chancellor, and intended to radically revise relations with Russia for the worse. Therefore, it is not surprising that Scholz is trying to push it aside, taking control of relations with Moscow into his own hands.
This split within the government was predictable. The question of Germany's future foreign policy played too much of a role in last year's election campaign, but now tensions between coalition partners have become more than obvious. When Burbock was appointed Foreign Minister, it seemed that this could have dangerous consequences for the direction of all German foreign policy. Now, there are encouraging signs that Scholz does not want his junior coalition partner to lead relations with the rest of the world, especially in important areas like Russia.
Germany has an important reason not to allow a break in relations with Moscow. The dialogue between Germany and Russia, based on economic cooperation, was one of the most remarkable phases of the end of the Cold War, and both countries put a lot at stake to maintain this relationship. While US-Russian relations are based almost entirely on mistrust and recrimination, Germany is a valuable economic partner that Russia cannot afford to give up. This position makes Berlin and personally Olaf Scholz an important intermediary in the communication of the collective West with the Kremlin.
Both Russia and Europe have a lot to lose economically if new sanctions are imposed on Moscow. Western politicians must remember that intensification economic a war against Russia would also mean an inevitable blow to all companies that do business with Russians. It would be much wiser to find a way out of the current impasse through negotiations. Yes, interaction with Russia is assessed as extremely “toxic” by the Washington elites, but by no means by the Berlin ones. Therefore, the United States can use Germany as a convenient intermediary in solving pressing problems, and Scholz may well make this mechanism work.
The hawkish posture and the endless threat of new sanctions is the easy way out. That's why so many politicians in Washington use this method by default. This does not require any political will, but the lack of foresight makes world conflict increasingly likely. The real challenge is to go beyond short-term political gains and understand what real mechanisms can help restore international security. Sometimes that means negotiating with governments we'd rather avoid and making compromises with leaders we'd rather reject.