"Russia's response will not be long in coming." The first days of 2022 showed the future of relations with the West

В предыдущих parts of this military-diplomatic saga, I told how the Kremlin turned the entire American military-industrial complex on its ears and forced it to “stand, be afraid!” the entire Biden administration. Today we will talk about what cunning Joe opposed to this.

The last personal communication between our presidents, which took place on December 30, on New Year's Eve, took place at the initiative of the Russian side (I remind you that Washington was the initiator in the first two cases), but this time Biden called Putin himself. There is no paradox here, just to the Kremlin's initiative, which took place even before Catholic Christmas, the representative of the White House replied that Biden could not immediately answer, he needed to prepare for the conversation. Grandpa Joe prepared for a week. Why this happened, think at your leisure. And do not attribute everything to the fact that Putin is a former intelligence officer and owns the tools of neuro-linguistic programming, and therefore every conversation with him is a test.

This, of course, is true, but not everything is so simple, apparently, Putin has something that keeps Grandpa Joe awake. These are only lap dogs from his pack, all sorts of Polish Pekingese and Baltic Spitz, can menacingly break off the leash, choking on barking, feeling the heavy breathing of the American Bull Terrier behind, in the hope that he will protect him in case of emergency. They are simply not allowed to know that all the last time the American Bull Terrier is occupied with only one thought - who would protect him from the Russian bear. While he shared these thoughts only with German shepherds, French bulldogs and English collies, no pot-bellied riff-raff just reached his hands, and they are not supposed to know about the problems that worry the leader of the pack (not to say, the leader of the pack). Let them bark for now. No pity. And the problems Grandpa Joe had with the Russians were global. There is no time for a pack, you would save yourself.

Distracting attention to an unusable object

You were not surprised by all this endless hype in the American and European media about the Russian military threat, about Russia's preparations for an attack on Ukraine, about its pulling troops to the borders of Ukraine (which turned out to be the borders of Belarus), as well as overflights of American reconnaissance and strategic aviation over the territory of Eastern Ukraine directly near the borders of Russia and the visits of US Navy warships to the Black Sea, which have recently been supplemented by the barrage of the American aircraft carrier strike group as part of the aircraft carrier Harry Truman and six escort ships in the Mediterranean Sea between Greece and Italy, instead of moving to the Middle East? For all the dull ones, I explain - all these were links of the same chain, separate elements of the joint operation of the US State Department and the Pentagon to cover up the main event of the past year - negotiations between the White House and the Kremlin.

However, even with the advent of the New Year, nothing in the information field has changed; in all Western media, Putin still rushed to the Dnieper. This time, the reason for this was the negotiations in the RF-US, RF-NATO and RF-OSCE formats held in the first half of January in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna. All of them also went to the accompaniment of the same avalanche of reports about the impending attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine. You will laugh, but the American and European layman is still fully convinced that these negotiations took place at the initiative of the United States, which pulled an insolent Russia onto the carpet for public flogging in order to knock out a promise not to attack Ukraine. About the ultimatum of Putin, who rolled out to his dearest "partners" a list of claims with imperative requirements for ensuring the security of the Russian Federation, and who pulled whom in real life on the carpet, neither the Europeans nor the Americans have the slightest idea. This is an objective fact that the Kremlin cannot do anything about, and a clear example of how it is really necessary to carry out campaigns for information support of important events. We still need to learn and learn from our sworn "friends and partners" in this matter.

Scouts call such operations "distracting attention to an unusable object." Their task is to hide the real goals pursued by the resident under white noise and an abundance of information. In this case, the resident is directly the 46th US President Joe Biden. The purpose of the operation is to distract the attention of the American and other public under the protectorate of the United States from his impending deal with Putin. And therefore, gigabytes of redundant information are thrown onto the heads of the unsuspecting, bored public, listing the numbers of military units, battalion tactical groups and their numbers, concentrated directly at the borders of poor Ukraine, the numbers and types of reconnaissance aircraft that make almost daily flights in the immediate vicinity of the Russian- Ukrainian border in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the number and types of ships freezing in the "cold" waters of the Ionian Sea instead of sunbathing on the shores of the Red. The philistine who does not understand anything is already dizzy from this, and behind all this pandemonium he does not see the main thing - America is turning back, under a howl about the fate of Ukraine, the United States is merging Europe (at least Eastern) to Russians:

On December 12, the US Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint strategic reconnaissance aircraft flew for the first time in the airspace of Ukraine, including in the southeast and south of the country north of Crimea, according to data from Western air resources.

In total, the aircraft was in the airspace of Ukraine for more than 6 hours. Previously, flights of such an aircraft over the country were not recorded. In operations in Ukraine, only RQ-4 Global Hawk strategic drones were used, which, in particular, conducted aerial reconnaissance along the line of contact in Donbass.

It hasn't even been two weeks since:

reconnaissance Boeing E-8C of the US Air Force (Air Force) on December 27 approached the Russian-Ukrainian border. This is evidenced by the data of the aviation monitoring website Flightradar.

Judging by the map, the plane started its journey from the Ramstein Air Force Base, then flew through European airspace to Ukraine and is currently on a reconnaissance mission south of Kharkov.

Earlier, on December 9, Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, reported that US strategic aviation had increased the number of flights near Russia's eastern borders. He noted that, in particular, the Americans are training launches of cruise missiles. On December 3, a civilian plane flying from Tel Aviv to Moscow was forced to change course over the Black Sea to avoid a dangerous rendezvous with an American reconnaissance aircraft. It was noted that the military aircraft chaotically crossed the established civil aviation routes and approached the passenger Airbus. Even earlier, on November 30, Russian leader Vladimir Putin stated that the Russian Federation was concerned about military exercises, including unplanned ones, near its borders. The President noted that bombers were flying 20 km from the border of the Russian Federation, carrying high-precision weapons, and possibly nuclear ones.

Let me remind you that all this happened directly during the preparation and immediately after the talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, which took place on December 7. On December 30, another telephone conversation took place between them, this time at the initiative of the Russian side. And as ordered, a couple of hours before the scheduled conversation, two reconnaissance aircraft crossed the border of Ukraine at once:

Today, December 30, two reconnaissance aircraft flew in the sky over Ukraine at once: the UK and the US. Video of movements displayed on the Flight Radar 24 service map.

The American Boeing E-8C Joint STARS aircraft carried out reconnaissance over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and the British RC-135 flew through Ukraine to the Black Sea to monitor the occupied Crimea.

Help: E-8C Joint Stars was created on the basis of the Boeing 707-300 passenger airliner and is designed to track and control the combat operations of ground forces.

The Boeing RC-135 is a family of large reconnaissance aircraft that the United States and the United Kingdom use to collect, process and transmit intelligence information. During the Cold War, these aircraft monitored Soviet air defense forces and Soviet intercontinental missile launches.

But this was not enough for the Americans, and on the same day, December 30, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the American carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman to be left in the Mediterranean due to the situation around Ukraine, reports the Associated Press, citing a representative Pentagon. According to the agency, this happened "against the background of fears about the accumulation of thousands of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine." The aircraft carrier, as part of a strike group of five US Navy ships, was supposed to head to the Middle East, however, according to a Defense Ministry spokesman, plans have changed. “This is necessary in order to reassure US allies and partners in the region,” the source said.

The information is confirmed by USNI News. A Pentagon spokesman said the carrier group would remain in the Ionian Sea between Greece and Italy for the time being, instead of heading towards US Central Command's area of ​​operations via the Suez Canal. In addition to the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, the group includes the guided missile cruiser USS San Jacinto, the destroyers USS Bainbridge, USS Cole, USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, and the Norwegian frigate Fridtjof.

false flag operation

According to Ukrainian media, according to satellite images, the Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian borders continues. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense reported that the accumulation of Russian troops would continue and would peak at the end of January 2022. At the same time, Western media report that the Russian invasion of Ukraine can be carried out in early 2022, up to 175 thousand Russian military personnel will be involved in this.

In particular, they write:

The Russian leadership avoids commenting on information about a possible invasion, stating that the transfer of troops is an internal affair of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the Kremlin declares possible provocations from Ukraine and allegedly plans of Kiev to return the occupied territories by military means.

And although the Kremlin denies that it is preparing a new invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin simultaneously demands that the United States guarantee security and puts forward a number of demands, including not granting Ukraine membership in NATO and stopping the expansion of the Alliance to the east, as well as stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine, withdraw a contingent of military advisers and instructors and not participate in exercises on Ukrainian territories.

Diplomacy Lessons

In the meantime, the New Year quickly passed and the Russian delegations, one after another, were drawn to Europe for the long-awaited negotiations with their sworn "friends". On the fact of the talks held in the RF-US, RF-NATO and RF-OSCE formats and subsequent briefings for Russian and foreign journalists given by the heads of the Russian delegations, Deputy Foreign Ministers of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov and Alexander Grushko, as well as by the Permanent Representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich , I can state only one thing - Lavrov has an excellent team, he is not ashamed of the Russian Foreign Ministry! Based on the results of the negotiations, only one sad fact can be summarized - the process moved off the ground and immediately ran into a wall of misunderstanding. We clearly stated our position, and the other side listened to it with all due respect. But on this good news ends for us.

As it became known from the lips of our diplomatic representatives, the first negotiations in Geneva lasted 7,5 hours (which is a record!), And the second about 4, of which 1,5 hours were devoted only to Ukraine (this is once again to the question "not a word about Ukraine without Ukraine!”), Lukashevich did not say how much time our delegation lost in Vienna, but also far from 15 minutes. The counterparts in all three cases were emphatically polite. Even at the RF-NATO talks, where the floor was given to all 30 of its members, no one allowed a rude word to be said against Russia (it's one thing to bark at the public, another thing face to face!).

From personal impressions, Sergei Ryabkov personally seemed to me a softer negotiator than Alexander Grushko, and the second’s English is more fluent. But according to the results of the briefings, I liked the first one more (and the briefing was better organized, there were no problems with sound and image), but Grushko had an excellent translator (not only I noted this), although he himself spars in English at a speed machine gun as a graduate of Cambridge.

After Ryabkov's briefing, I think many of the journalists present at it ran after it to look in explanatory dictionaries, which means the word imperative. For those who are not in the know, I will explain - this is a command, an unconditional requirement. In the 21st century, we have lived to the point that such words can only be heard from the lips of career diplomats. Sergei Alekseevich, in his usual mild manner, emphasized three imperative demands of Russia, without which the negotiations could be considered counterproductive or simply worthless (7,5 hours down the drain!). This, firstly, receiving legal written guarantees from the United States and their allies of non-expansion of NATO to the east, which is an absolute imperative for the Russian Federation. Second an imperative requirement is to obtain written guarantees not to deploy strike weapons at our borders that can hit targets on our territory (here we are talking about medium and short-range strike missiles that fell under the very INF Treaty, from which the States withdrew back in 2019 through the efforts of our beloved Trump). AND third the requirement is the zeroing of all NATO territorial acquisitions after the signing of the Russia-NATO founding act of 1997, i.e. in a simple way, the demand of the Russian Federation to roll back the Alliance to the borders of 1997, when there were no Poland, no Hungary, no Czech Republic, no Romania, no Bulgaria, no Slovakia, no Slovenia, no Croatia, no Albania with the North. Macedonia and other Montenegros, not to mention the Baltic countries. Agree, the requirements are initially unfeasible for either the United States or NATO.

Wendy Sherman, First Deputy Secretary of State of the United States, who led the American delegation, who conducted the parallel briefing, in turn told reporters that the American side was ready to fulfill only the second condition, i.e. to start negotiations on the renewal of the INF Treaty. This, of course, is good, but Ryabkov emphasized that our demands can only be considered as a package, isolating what you like and throwing away what you don’t like. Either everything or nothing! What will happen otherwise, the polite Sergey Alekseevich answered only in English, and this answer made the New York Times journalist who asked this question cringe. Sergei Alekseevich said that this would require some kind of military response from Russia, and this response might not please the United States and its European allies. Ryabkov refused to specify what kind of military and military-technical measures Russia is going to take in this case, so as not to aggravate the already tense situation.

Regarding the timing, Sergei Alekseevich did not limit the negotiations to some kind of deadline, but nevertheless noted that it was not about months or even weeks, Russia needed an instant response from the USA and NATO. As to whether one could even trust the written guarantees of the Americans, Ryabkov only grinned sarcastically that it was still better than nothing. And finally, regarding Ukraine and the impending attack on it by the Russian Federation, our diplomat said that Russia is not going to attack anyone, and therefore there is no subject for discussion here. When asked what guarantees Russia could provide for its non-aggression, he only reminded the journalist of Schwarzenegger's words from the film "Red Heat": "What is your evidence?"

Alexander Grushko, who held his briefing on the results of the RF-NATO talks two days later at the Russian Embassy in Belgium, in fact, did not say anything new, emphasizing that such negotiations in this format were the first in the last two years, relations between the Russian Federation and NATO for this time only degraded, but this is not our fault, since the Alliance since 2014 has actually returned to the times of 1949 and the Cold War, having taken a tough position of containing Russia.

Further, Grushko identified three main factors that influenced this. First - this is the recognition of the Russian Federation as the main enemy of NATO, which clearly did not contribute to the strengthening of European collective security. Second The factor is the expansion of NATO to the east and the use of the territories of the states newly included in the bloc to project force against Russia from various geographic directions and to various strategic depths, which created unacceptable risks to the security of the Russian Federation, which it cannot and is not going to put up with. AND third factor is the complete degradation of arms control, after the US withdrew successively from the ABM treaties (2001), the INF Treaty (2019) and the Open Skies Treaty (2020), as well as the sabotage by most NATO countries of the ratification of the Conventional Arms Treaty in Europe (CFE), which was intended to be the cornerstone of European security. In addition, Grushko stressed that the United States and its allies in their military development are trying to achieve superiority in all traditional operating environments (on land, in the air and at sea), to which space with cyberspace has now been added. In all possible theaters, they conceptually, operationally and technically lower the ceiling for the use of nuclear weapons and completely curtail cooperation with the Russian Federation in the areas of combating terrorism, piracy and the spread of drugs. Sadly, he stated that the current situation in relations with NATO is more than bleak.

The main The reason for the existing problems, as Grushko emphasized, is NATO's selective understanding of the principle of the indivisibility of security. In the eyes of NATO, it exists only for members of the Alliance, and in its practical activities, the bloc actually ignores the interests of other countries that are not members of the bloc. Russia, on the other hand, believes that the concept of "indivisible security", which was proclaimed back in 1975 by the Council for Security and Cooperation in Europe (now the OSCE), is based on the fundamental principle that no country (or group of countries) can ensure its security for security account of other countries. The Russian Federation believes that the eastward expansion of NATO is a direct violation not only of this principle, but also of the oral agreements that the Alliance gave to the leadership of the USSR. Grushko reminded journalists that now NATO's borders actually pass in the suburbs of St. Petersburg, and if NATO moves even further east, then the Russian Federation will have to transfer its weapons beyond the Urals, which is unacceptable for us (he meant the threat of possible missile defense systems in Ukraine, which will force the Russian Federation to shift silo-based strategic missile forces beyond the Urals in order to get out from under the American missile defense umbrella). And so, he concluded,

if NATO moves to policies containment of Russia, then Russia will then switch to a policy of counter-deterrence, if NATO applies a policy of deterrence, then on our part we will take counter-intimidation measures, if NATO looks for vulnerabilities in the defense of the Russian Federation, then the Russian Federation will find vulnerabilities in the defense of NATO countries. This is not our choice, but NATO leaves us no other choice, and therefore Russia's response will not be long in coming!

The last one is a direct quote from Grushko. Unlike his colleague Ryabkov, he was not delicate in terms, and the members of the Alliance themselves can guess what kind of military measures he was talking about.

Kremlin's New Tactic: Piecemeal Bad News

Summarizing, we can say that the negotiations ended in complete failure, and although the written response of the opposing (in every sense) side has not yet been received (it should be expected no earlier than in 10 days), but now all fans of non-science fiction can reflect on what military measures the Kremlin has up its sleeve. And the fact that the Kremlin is not bluffing is understood by everyone, except for some citizens of Ukraine.

The briefing of the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich, held in Vienna on January 13 following the results of a special meeting of the OSCE Council, convened at the initiative of the Polish side presiding in the Council, only aggravated our sad assumptions - it was not possible to agree, they did not hear us, these gentlemen hear only themselves. And how can you negotiate with 57 countries at once? Well, if they don't want to talk to our diplomats, then they will talk to our military. I don't think they'll like it very much. The last, final part will be called so - Sergey Kuzhugetovich, your way out! From it you will learn what Putin was counting on, putting forward impossible demands to our "partners" in advance.

Only people with altered consciousness caused by the abuse of synthetic psychostimulants or even worse, such as hallucinogenic fly agarics and toadstools, can demonstrate their fearlessness in the face of Putin's armored underwater divisions, and then only by feeling friendly pats well, if on the shoulder, and not on the back place, senior comrades from across the ocean and from foggy Albion. But the well-groomed Anglo-Saxons will not fight either for the overgrown Poles, or for a pack of Baltic dwarfs, not to mention lovers of lace panties and free beer. And then what? Then you will have to urgently run for advice to a prisoner of a Georgian prison, find out from him where he bought such delicious ties, on which, in which case, you can hang yourself.

And since Biden does not belong to the first, nor to the second, and even more so to the third, he prefers to listen to his generals and intelligence officers. And they tell him that it's rubbish - the Russians overtook us in hypersound for a lifetime. Moreover, this is the life of him, Joseph Biden. And since even though grandfather is old, he is not going to the other world yet, he will have to negotiate with the Russians if he wants to live longer. And it's good if they let him save face in the process. Because the grandfather may not survive the second Afghanistan.

Take my word for it, Putin will strike where he is not expected at all. And they are waiting for him in Ukraine, they have already prescribed the terms - the end of February-beginning of March, Zelensky will just run out of gas, it's time to fight. But Putin prefers other latitudes for this. Somewhere around this time, we have long planned large-scale exercises of the entire nuclear triad - land-based, air-based and sea-based. Americans have never seen such a movie before. They will have tickets in the 1st row. But more on that in the final part.
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  1. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 18: 34
    I see Volkonsky - I put plus in advance. But so far I see only a statement of the events that have occurred. Well, it’s also good, it makes it possible to streamline the logical chain.
    In any case, it is clear that the West itself unties Putin's hands.
    I dare to suggest that at the very last moment the United States will make a dashing feint with their ears (walk, barefoot!), And slap headlong on the table a ticket signed by all NATO members with Putin's demands, after which the Year of Brotherly Love and Universal Kisses will come.
    1. tagil Offline tagil
      tagil (Sergei) 16 January 2022 18: 57
      I dare to suggest that at the very last moment the United States will make a dashing feint with their ears (walk, barefoot!), And slap headlong on the table a ticket signed by all NATO members with Putin's demands, after which the Year of Brotherly Love and Universal Kisses will come.

      I'm afraid that you got excited with the ticket. Biden may be happy to sign at least nine tickets and go change diapers, but there is one thing. And it's but the US Congress that won't let this ticket pass, or can revoke Biden's signature. So congressmen should be even more afraid than Grandpa. And since there are politically stupid people sitting there who are more concerned about the equal rights of all perverts all over the world and their bank accounts (and money is dripping on them from bankers, the military-industrial complex, oil workers and other interested parties), then Russia will have to hit hard and on a grand scale . And now, after the suitcases full of dollars understand that New Zealand does not guarantee health and life, one can expect their consent.
      1. Avarron Offline Avarron
        Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 19: 02
        This is where the CIA will have the opportunity to do something really useful for the world by telling the pingolingus about what a noble PPC expects their radiant aphedrons if Biden does not agree with the Most Serene.
        Whether they are reptilians or not, they are also made of meat and bones, it hurts to burn in not even the most nuclear fire.
        In any case, there is nothing left but "we will see."
        1. tagil Offline tagil
          tagil (Sergei) 16 January 2022 19: 16
          Yes, that would be nice, but I doubt it. There are people in the congress who buy psychotropic substances in the drugstore of the congress, to maintain their disordered psyche, more than all of New York in the world. And the education of congressmen leaves much to be desired, they are sure that the horrors of nuclear war are greatly "embellished".
          1. Avarron Offline Avarron
            Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 19: 19
            Well, that's why I mentioned the CIA. The CIA is not congressmen, they understand how it hurts when your ass on fire.
          2. shinobi Offline shinobi
            shinobi (Yuri) 17 January 2022 11: 53
            They believe in what the State Department tells them to believe. But the State Department has no influence on their security forces, and thank the eggs. Otherwise, a nuclear war would have taken place 60 years ago. And let the Pentagon strategists hatch different military plans / strategies, their work such, they understand better than anyone the consequences of a retaliatory strike by our Strategic Missile Forces. And it will take place in any way. With conventional types of weapons and troops, Russia cannot be defeated or even stopped if a real batch happens. They know it. And therefore, for any movement of our army, every time they have a tantrum.
            PS: Regarding all these exercises, maneuvers and flag demonstrations. All according to Sun Tzu's tartat "On War"

            If you are strong, pretend to be weak and lure the enemy into a trap. If you are weak, demonstrate your strength in every possible way, the enemy should not understand your weakness.
      2. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
        Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 16 January 2022 20: 14
        Quote: Tagil
        Biden may be happy to sign at least nine tickets and go change diapers, but there is one thing. And it's but the US Congress that won't let this ticket pass, or can revoke Biden's signature....

        I agree with you.
        Trump tried to address Americans directly past Congress, trying to unite people around the idea of ​​saving America, the slogan MAGA, MAGA - "make America great again." Of course, he did not divulge that everything is bad and there will be a collapse. But he focused on a unifying idea of ​​what needs to be done for this. Trump was slandered, marginalized, disconnected from the media and began to sling mud, as a result, the election was stolen from him and banned from Twitter, ordinary people's supporters were plagued with criminal prosecutions and blocked in the media and social networks.

        Biden, after some time in his presidency, realized that their (Democrats) plan to get out of the crisis would not work, and now he basically went along with Trump's program.

        But Biden went the quiet way.
        This works well at the stage of negotiations and preparation of agreements, no one is particularly aware of this and no one opposes it.
        A wonderful decision, but only until he brings these agreements to light.
        Let's say this is an agreement with Russia on NATO. It will be contrary to the NATO charter. Who will give Biden to bring it to life, change the NATO charter or ratify the treaty or pass laws prohibiting the United States from deploying aircraft, missiles, air defense, bases in Europe or part of it. Congress is against agreements with Russia, only ultimatums. Congress is against any self-limitation of US power.

        Trump at least tried to overcome Congress through interaction with the Americans.

        Biden does nothing, his administration, Blinken, exactly the opposite, undermines Biden's position with anti-Russian statements if he planned to agree on something.

        It can be concluded that

        either Biden is clinically incapable of thinking (but although he quickly gets tired with age, a politician with a long record of experience still thinks),

        or Biden is not going to agree on anything, at least at this stage. Those. for Biden and Congress, it should be clearly demonstrated that America is fucked.

        This means that there will be no agreements, demonstrations such as an explosion over the north pole of a thermonuclear bomb should not be expected either, we have untied our hands on possible actions. And then there will be a tough confrontation at each specific point where there is a threat with a forceful push / upholding of our position.

        Those. confrontation on all positions in all spheres. The only thing is that the United States may not aggravate where it is not profitable for them to take big risks. Nothing can be obtained in a package as part of a big deal, everything that we consider our own will have to be taken by force.
        1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 20: 37
          good analysis! I added plus
          conclusions are correct! now Putin's task is to allow Biden to save face, and this is precisely why the combination with Ukraine is started, which Putin supposedly should attack. Here - Biden achieved non-aggression, and in return he had to sign the DRMSD, under which Tomahawks fall, after which we are not afraid of missile defense in Poland and Romania. It remains to resolve the issue with Ukraine. We will choke purely economically, first turn off the gas and electricity
          1. shinobi Offline shinobi
            shinobi (Yuri) 17 January 2022 12: 11
            Uh, Vladimir hi Are they scary for us? request As far as I remember the history of relations between the Russian Empire / USSR / Russia with Europe, Poland-Balts-Ukraine, were and are considered as buffer territories for conducting military operations. No one has ever taken into account or perceived their opinion. They are furious because By changing the owner, the role assigned to them has not changed absolutely. And it will not change if we return them back to our orbit of influence. This is if Biden suddenly made concessions.
        2. Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 16 January 2022 20: 54
          Congress, Biden, State Department, all these are hired personnel fulfilling the will of global capital, who have chosen and equipped North America as their home, as they say, and I will fulfill the hired rulers
          1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
            Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 16 January 2022 21: 22
            Quote: Eduard Aplombov
            Congress, Biden, State Department, all these are hired personnel fulfilling the will of global capital, who have chosen and equipped North America as their home, as they say, and I will fulfill the hired rulers

            How do you imagine "global capital", it is not homogeneous, say, "Rothschilds", "Rockefellers", there are some bankers and corporations, they all have different interests, sometimes perpendicular and sometimes diametrically opposed.

            Even if they all want a way out of the global crisis, everyone sees it in their own way, except that the approach coincides in one at the expense of competitors.

            If the bankers want it, they will become richer and the industrialists will go bankrupt and their assets will go to the bankers. If the bankers lose, they will go to jail for fraud, the industrialists will receive funding from the state, debt relief.

            Even if there are hired personnel in Congress, they have different employers.
            And it is difficult to reorient hired personnel, they have been accustomed for 50 years to the same installations, terminology, and standard approaches. The machine of power, it is represented not only by the Congress, but by the media, editors, journalists, TV channels, bloggers. Those. a whole colossus of information support, how to rebuild them. Journalists, they are not all corrupt, often this is a personnel approach, from one point of view they are promoted to the top, made famous, others are rubbed into obscurity.
            Here "circle, step march ..." will not work.
            Either very large-scale events must occur that will change the point of view, or the gradual creation of new training manuals, their distribution in the upper echelons, the creation of training manuals for the middle link distribution, the middle link builds the lower tier, in fact, dismisses the old recruits new ones for the new course.
            This is all for the long term, even if someone does it in the USA. By the way, you can’t get by with one country, but in our country “world capital” this must be done in all Western countries, and the opposition and the opposition media should change the totalitarian ones.
            1. EMMM Offline EMMM
              EMMM 17 January 2022 01: 38
              The raven will not peck out the crow's eye!
              Nothing will change
            2. Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 17 January 2022 14: 12
              strategically, the tasks of the shadow rulers of the world coincide,
              sometimes they can bet on trumps, but realizing that he (they) do not fulfill their tasks and the goals change him to another group of managers
              this is the strength of the Western model, it is difficult to fight those who are not public authorities, and the public authorities of Western countries (not only the United States) are not able to violate the strategic tasks of these forces, they have a narrow corridor in the tactical arsenal
        3. tagil Offline tagil
          tagil (Sergei) 16 January 2022 20: 57
          You're right, it probably will. But we will squeeze out for now what is not critical for America. Ukraine, Baltics, Syria. Well, then time will tell. For them, this will not be a weak blow.
          1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
            DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 17 January 2022 03: 11
            Why the Baltics?
            1. tagil Offline tagil
              tagil (Sergei) 17 January 2022 12: 44
              The money was paid to the Swedes for it. Throwing away your property is not proper. Especially there to Peter 130 km. We took Prussia not because it is a hotbed of German militarism, but because "CATHERINE IS OUR KING" (such a medal was minted by the Prussians themselves).
        4. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
          alexneg13 (Alexander) 17 January 2022 03: 06
          Are you talking about the USA or Ukraine? A joke, of course, but in every joke there is a share of a joke.
  2. Vyacheslav 64 Offline Vyacheslav 64
    Vyacheslav 64 (Vyacheslav) 16 January 2022 18: 59
    As in that video - "I didn't ... I didn't understand, but it's very interesting" :) But seriously - well done author, really deep analysis.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 19: 35
      in the last part, then you’ll dig in at all, because I was going to give the performance characteristics of Putin’s toys, which caused Grandpa Joe’s nightmares, the text has not yet been written, I’m writing (readiness 45%), I have another week left before the answer is disgusting in every sense side, so I will think whether it is worth downloading you with the technical details of products, it may be limited to only names and some details. In this whole story, which was invented not by me, but by the Kremlin, the most interesting thing is that until the last day no one knows how Putin will respond (including myself, you understand, I don’t have a direct telephone connection with the Kremlin, I only have a head on shoulders and open sources of information, the task is only to select the facts and put them together into a coherent logical picture of the world). It is especially amusing to watch how all respected experts (not only couch, but also television) smear in milk in their assumptions of the Kremlin's response. Putin spun such a game that everyone's head went around. Nobody knows how it will end. I do not rule out a happy ending, the sides will part ways, allowing each other to save face. We are waiting ... we are chewing popcorn ...
      1. sharp-lad Offline sharp-lad
        sharp-lad (Oleg) 16 January 2022 21: 36
        TTX please do not forget, at least from open sources! hi
      2. EMMM Offline EMMM
        EMMM 17 January 2022 01: 46
        I’ll say about technical toys that so far I haven’t really heard about a single revolutionary model in the troops.
        There was a rumor about the transfer of 4 Su-57s to the Aerospace Forces, but officially nothing. Moreover, the engine has not yet been made.

        Putin spun such a game that everyone's head went around. Nobody knows how it will end.

        Isn't that a bluff?
        1. Vladimir501 Offline Vladimir501
          Vladimir501 (Vladimir) 17 January 2022 16: 34
          Can you cite the fact when, where and on what exactly Putin bluffed?
          1. EMMM Offline EMMM
            EMMM 19 January 2022 23: 53
            The last 4 years in the field of supplying new types of weapons have been a complete bluff!
      3. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
        alexneg13 (Alexander) 17 January 2022 03: 22
        Vladimir, I think I solved this puzzle. I will not rush things, but this is very original and no one expects this. "We'll see."
  3. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 16 January 2022 19: 12
    Putin will strike where he is not expected at all.

    Okay, but even if you know that "somewhere at this time we have long planned large-scale exercises of the entire nuclear triad - land, air and sea-based", do you think the Americans do not know this?
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 19: 49
      gene, I will answer with a joke:

      The correspondent asks our general: "Why do you say that they tested a nuclear weapon with a capacity of 10 to 150 megatons of TNT?" Why such a disparity in power?
      General: "Yes, we ourselves thought that it was ten, but it ... ka-ak bang!!"

      Nobody knows! They don’t even know the exact date, somewhere in the first half of this year ... There will be a surprise!
  4. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 19: 15
    Quote: Tagil
    ...political stupid people who are more concerned about the equal rights of all the perverts of the whole world...

    Oh, they are far from stupid people. All this bullshit with the protection of the rights of poker, semi-poker and other LGBT people is carried out with a perfectly visible goal - the reduction in the number of the specifically white population, the essence of the driving force of progress until recently.
    What will happen after other races reach the influence of whites? That's right, total genocide and murder of all for all, which will greatly please the golden billion reptilians (I don't believe in the Illuminati and Nibiru, I just like the word).
    And this slaughter of all for all, as if it will have absolutely nothing to do with those in power, they will say "we wanted freedom, equality and fraternity for poker and pedophiles, but it just happened, we are not in business."
    For this, they do not like Putin, because either he did not stupefy this topic, or he purposely opposes this out of philanthropy. It pushes back the slaughter a little bit (although the state-forming people of Russia shrinks even without LGBT, unfortunately).
    1. tagil Offline tagil
      tagil (Sergei) 16 January 2022 21: 14
      That's right, total genocide and murder of all for all, which will greatly please the golden billion reptilians (I don't believe in the Illuminati and Nibiru, I just like the word).
      And this slaughter of all for all, as if it will have absolutely nothing to do with those in power, they will say "we wanted freedom, equality and fraternity for poker and pedophiles, but it just happened, we are not in business."

      Well, no, they will fully know what "WHAT IS US FOR", since they themselves will bring the white race to complete absurdity, when there will be no one to protect the whites (and why should children brought up in the "best traditions of pederasts" protect dad and dad). So even having a certain amount of "fighting pide rasts" this will not save them. You look at this Europe, their emigrants are humiliated at every step, does anyone even resent this? And as soon as they start cutting rations and payments to these come in large numbers, they will destroy them, and I suspect that they will succeed in this. A vet economic crisis is quite likely with our help.
      1. Avarron Offline Avarron
        Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 23: 17
        That's what I'm talking about in the comment above. Reptilians will reduce the white population by propaganda and planting LGBT people, the liberal idea is already forcing women to refuse to give birth, which leads to the depopulation of whites. The swarthy ones do not have liberda, they breed, and breed well.
        What happens to the whites where there are many swarthy, we see perfectly well.
        For a long time whites will not be able to endure such a situation and will take up arms. Swarthy ones too. And here it is the conflict of all against all, a radical reduction in the number of people on the planet, and the reptilians, as it were, had nothing to do with it - the whites and the dark-skinned themselves decided each other.
        1. tagil Offline tagil
          tagil (Sergei) 16 January 2022 23: 23
          And where will these reptilians hide? And after so many years of planting false values ​​among whites, a whole generation has grown up unprepared to defend and defend themselves. Who will win the question is clear.
          1. Avarron Offline Avarron
            Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 23: 45
            The reptilians have a lot of resources with which they buy private armies. In the new feudalism, they will become the new kings, and whoever survives will become their slaves. Well, the pingolingus themselves will successfully kill each other, in their post-apocalyptic films the main characters rub in empty plundered cities. They will knock each other down and eat human flesh. The fact that you can go to live in the village and plant potatoes will never occur to them.
            In this regard, the Russians would be lucky - there is a lot of land. But the new feudal lords will enslave everyone. Those in whose hands weapons will be concentrated will become these feudal lords.
            Therefore, it is necessary to prevent the extinction of the progressive population, moreover, to increase its percentage. But...
            1. tagil Offline tagil
              tagil (Sergei) 16 January 2022 23: 58
              You are painting a very bleak future. There will most likely be a clash with radicals from the Muslim world, and the elites must understand how this will end for them. For radicals, the question is either or not. Although, the same reptilians are hiding behind the teachings of Islam, who use fanatics to their advantage. And interest is power, and of course money. Some reptilians want to replace other reptilians at the "world feeder".
              1. Avarron Offline Avarron
                Avarron (Sergei) 17 January 2022 01: 37
                The elites, as usual, will stand above everyone and taunt. Who can guarantee that all this current movement is not a big deal, including covid and other geopolitics.
  5. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 16 January 2022 19: 20
    Putin will hit Ukraine, but not in the way that you, Vladimir, imagine. Chaos, chaos is our everything.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 19: 53
      definitely not in Ukraine, more on that in the next text, but the pin * dos really want this, I do not exclude provocations on the territory of the Ukrainian part of Donbass
      1. boriz Online boriz
        boriz (boriz) 17 January 2022 02: 05
        Biden really does not want provocations in Ukraine. He does not need them from the word "absolutely". After Kazakhstan, he only managed to change diapers. Therefore, he repeats like a mantra about "punishment" for the attack on Ukraine. In Kazakhstan, ours did not finish him off. This, in fact, is also not in our interests. But they will add more. There is something.
        Last April, I made an assumption and a prediction about the circumstances of Biden's call to Putin. So far, the prediction is coming true. I'll drop you a link in a personal.
  6. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 16 January 2022 19: 29
    It must be understood that it is not without reason that the Chinese, who for a long time have been unable to pile a long-playing aircraft engine for their own Air Force, suddenly drew hellish hypersound, as well as, suddenly, the North Koreans.
    I suppose that the United States will confront the fact "you didn’t like the Russian pistol at your temple, here you have the same pistols from all sides, and what will you do now?"
    Somehow I already said in the comments that one day the pingolingus will be surprised to see that all Russian weapons on the planet operate under a single command. And then it won't matter at all that nominally Russia has only one aircraft carrier.
    A slight malaise will befall not only Biden, many people will feel bad.
    And when, as in The Simpsons, Russia throws off camouflage from the USSR, and even the entire BLM in the USA turns out to be the CPUSA, put out the lights here.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 19: 56
      the Chinese in hypersound graze the rear ones, lagging even behind the pin * dos, we definitely won’t share this with them
  7. e2-e4 Offline e2-e4
    e2-e4 (Yura) 16 January 2022 20: 13
    The position of many commentators is surprising! "We're bang! We're bang!!" So they will bang for you! Shooting at "them" automatically means shooting at "you". That is, by shooting at them first, you seem to be shooting at yourself! They are kirdyk, and you are kirdyk. But for some reason, you rejoice at "Ihmemu" kirdyk?
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 20: 43
      and who said what about them? nope, exclusively into space, from there it will fly

      If you don’t want it in a bad way, it will be worse in an amicable way!

      (D. Trump)

      The one who shoots last laughs!

      (own observation)

      A kind word and a colt can achieve much more than just a kind word.

      (Al Capone)

      Be realistic! Strive for the impossible!

      (Che Guevara)
  8. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 16 January 2022 20: 50
    Moscow simply understood that the "aggravation" was inevitable. It is inevitable, because it will not be possible to live forever with a smoldering conflict in Ukraine; due to the new price realities for gas, Ukraine is economically approaching the verge of collapse and the West simply cannot wait for the country that has chosen the path of the Western world to collapse from economic insolvency. Moreover, it is not clear how this will happen. So the United States decided to end the Ukrainian project with "Russian aggression" in order to introduce super-sanctions, tie Europe to itself and sell shale gas to them, rejoicing at the economic losses of the EU from Russia's sanctions and counter-sanctions.
    If the "aggravation" is inevitable, the Kremlin may have thought, it is necessary to at least change the narrative. It was possible to change the narrative, now any steps taken by NATO and the actions of Ukraine will look like confirmation of Russian fears. But there is one unpleasant moment - after a loud Western NO, everyone is waiting for Russia's reaction. And it is precisely as "Russia's reaction" that it will be possible to explain everything that was already conceived before, but of course already less unambiguously.
    Russia has not yet tried to overthrow the Kiev regime, it suited Moscow with its destructive policy in Ukraine. And, as it were, the fact that Ukraine is a half-dead patient (through the fault of their authorities), in whose nostrils oxygen tubes from Russia - nuclear fuel, electricity, gas, coal, diesel and much more, remained invisible. As long as it was unprofitable for Russia to turn off this oxygen, this would lead to numerous casualties in Ukraine. But if necessary, Russia has the leverage to collapse the Ukrainian state without military intervention. The invasion of Ukraine, which is now used to scare the inhabitants of the planet, will not take place. CIA provocations, no matter what they come up with, will only discredit the United States in the eyes of their European allies. there will be no military reaction, but there will be an accusation against the United States. As a final step, the US may deploy American combat units in Ukraine to provoke Russia unambiguously. But here, too, Russia will still have room for maneuver - closing the border with Ukraine, stopping the supply of nuclear fuel, electricity, coal, diesel and everything else. Chaos will begin in the country. Panic of war will begin in Europe. But there will be no Russian invasion anyway. In order for the guns to speak, Ukraine will have to launch an invasion of the east itself. And this is a completely different matter. This is an attack on Russia by the NATO bloc, the Europeans are even more upset by this situation. When it comes to the threat of war, not all Western journalists and media will clap their hands, understanding who and how started it all.
    Patient "Ukraine", this is an American patient, this is their headache, it is up to them to decide how to drain him. They can save it with money - that's good too, let them pour money into it.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 16 January 2022 21: 01
      Russia has not yet tried to overthrow the Kiev regime, it suited Moscow with its destructive policy in Ukraine.

      don't understand here? why the Russian Federation destroyed the economy 404? we’ll take it anyway, so why do we need ruins?
      1. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
        Siegfried (Gennady) 16 January 2022 21: 08
        so that Ukraine does not take place as a successful state that has embarked on the path of European integration. Whatever the government of Ukraine did not have the support of the people. So that deep internal contradictions arose in the country. Taking it by force will not work without consequences, and we do not need it. We can only invite the east of Ukraine to join us themselves. As it turns out without us, we gave them time to look.
        1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
          DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 17 January 2022 03: 16
          The authorities (well, or whatever) in Ukraine do not have the support of the people (well, or whatever). In this so-called. country (well, or whatever) there were and will be "deep contradictions". Nobody wants to take over Ukraine. Donbass is ours.
      2. sharp-lad Offline sharp-lad
        sharp-lad (Oleg) 16 January 2022 21: 45
        To build a new, bright World! Well, or mothball it, for yourself and others as a warning, under the sign "But they could have lived!"
      3. Victor Viktorov Offline Victor Viktorov
        Victor Viktorov (Viktor Viktorov) 16 January 2022 21: 57
        To start the process of confederalization of Ukraine.
        1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
          DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 17 January 2022 03: 17
          Are you serious?) Yes, most Ukrainian Indians do not know the meaning of this word)))). This Zelensky definitely won’t even pronounce it.
          1. Victor Viktorov Offline Victor Viktorov
            Victor Viktorov (Viktor Viktorov) 17 January 2022 15: 00
            The point is not in understanding the meaning of the word, but in the process that will start.
            1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
              DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 17 January 2022 16: 42
              Three days they will ride ...
  9. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 16 January 2022 23: 20
    What is the article about? Of course, you need to have talents, such a big article and about nothing.
    And can someone explain to me why this hatred:

    And they tell him that it's rubbish - the Russians overtook us in hypersound for a lifetime. Moreover, this is the life of him, Joseph Biden.

    Well, let's say the Russian Federation has a super-duper wunderwaffe anti-ship missiles tserkon in the amount of 10 pieces, well, well, let it be 100. So what? Will the Americans raise their paws right away? Well, this is nonsense.
    All the same, guaranteed mutual destruction.
  10. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 17 January 2022 02: 41
    Neither Biden nor Putin needs an escalation.
    The United States and the Russian Federation have long jointly controlled the hydrocarbon market, cutting good money from this. This can be seen from their actions until recently.
    Both now have serious internal problems, there is no time to engage in bickering. Moreover, Biden's situation is worse than Putin's. He has time pressure and lack of money. Biden needs clear coordinated work with the Russian Federation and China. Everything has already been discussed. Tyagomotina from the contradictions in the negotiations - red herrings.
    Biden will let heroic powers like Estonia speak out and withdraw funding from NATO and the EU. Will arrange Afghanistan 2.0.
    Rationale - he prevented Putin's attack on Ukraine, and the United States does not have money to maintain foreign elites. We mean our liberals too. So it makes no sense for Putin to really quarrel with Biden ..
    Putin does not need to demonstrate his nishtyaki. He's been doing just that for the last few months. He probably guessed the launches under the US satellites. What they are supposed to know about performance characteristics, they already know.
    Putin's leverage is economic, plus blackmail (I dropped the link to you) by actions in the event of an attack on the LDNR. The latter is just the military part of the answer. Of course, there may be more. Nuclear weapons in Belarus are a bluff, also a distraction. It's just not necessary. Much more effective than nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. This can be done quickly. It is possible that this has already been done. According to some indications.
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. Konstantin_3 Offline Konstantin_3
    Konstantin_3 (Konstantin Zelenin) 17 January 2022 10: 04
    There is no logic in these reasoning.
    It's all over the ears.
  13. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 17 January 2022 11: 27
    It was initially clear that the requirements for the US/NATO were unacceptable. Putin followed the principle, demand to the maximum, maybe it will be possible to take as much as you need. This is understandable. Only real goals are incomprehensible. They are completely non-obvious. And in my amateurish opinion, this is our version of informational cover for something that we, simple couch experts, miss.
  14. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 17 January 2022 16: 08
    the demand of the Russian Federation to roll back the Alliance to the borders of 1997, when its members did not include Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, or Albania from the North. Macedonia and other Montenegros, not to mention the Baltic countries.

    - in fact, everything is not so cool, no one is demanding the exclusion of these countries from the Alliance, but only the withdrawal of American troops and weapons from their territory. This, of course, is also tough, but still doable. Moreover, everyone understands that if something happens, they can bring it back.
    And by the way, about the impossibility of guaranteeing that Ukraine will not join NATO, the Americans are lying: well, formally, all NATO members decide (although we know who decides), but they decide exclusively by consensus, that is, even formally, if the United States undertakes to vote against entry , and this is completely within their competence, then there will be no entry. This is not formally closing the "open doors of NATO" in violation of its fundamental documents, but only the obligation of one country to another to act within the framework of its "defensive" bloc in a certain way ...
  15. S WITH Offline S WITH
    S WITH (N S) 17 January 2022 16: 15
    I don’t think it’s necessary to look for meaning between the lines, Putin said very clearly - “Ukraine will lose statehood”, he didn’t say only when, and he won’t say)) this is a military secret, no confederation will allow the Russian Federation to control Ukraine, even if Medvedchuk or Shariy are imprisoned as president)) only the complete disposal of Ukraine as a state and the revival of Russian Little Russia as part of the Russian Federation, this is Russian land, and if someone does not agree with this, they will stupidly deprive Russian citizenship and kick them into NATO)), where Russophobes are so eager, let them experience it in their own skin how is it to live in NATO on the street and without work together with the Balts, Arabs, Africans, etc))

    The Russian Federation will definitely not go to the Baltic states, but it will openly declare (so that the Finnish Papuans can hear) that nuclear Iskanders are aimed at it, and if the Americans launch at least something in the Russian Federation from there, the Baltic states will disappear, and sanctions must also be imposed against the Baltic states - a complete cessation of trade operations. even they need to stop supplying gas, oil and energy, complete disregard for the Lilliputians, over time the Balts themselves will come to their senses (hunger is not an aunt) and will attempt to overthrow the US pawns, of course they will need help in this matter
  16. skeptic Offline skeptic
    skeptic 17 January 2022 17: 42
    To prevent Ukraine's encroachments, it is necessary to divide the entire territory adjacent to the LDNR into squares. Corresponding cards, hand out to representatives of the republics. There will be no need to keep our troops on the border. When the enemy enters the corresponding square, a signal is given and the defense of the republics is made, without the entry of Russian troops.
  17. Anchonsha Offline Anchonsha
    Anchonsha (Anchonsha) 18 January 2022 00: 42
    Thanks for the good article Vladimir. But I must say that the United States is agonizing, but it can bring more trouble.