Why the EU suddenly began to fear anti-Russian sanctions

A number of EU countries have expressed their concern to Washington regarding the possible economic damage that they may suffer as a result of the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. Bloomberg agency reported on this on January 10.

According to the data at the disposal of the latter's sources, not all of the West European allies of the United States still approve of the imposition of severe restrictions on Moscow. It is noted that some states fear not only tangible consequences for their own economies, but also retaliatory actions from Russia, which, in their opinion, may cut off gas supplies to Europe.

Russia's bet played

Carpe diem - says winged Latinism, calling to seize the moment. And Russia is doing just that today. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine a better moment to negotiate security with the United States. On the one hand, the inglorious collapse of the twenty-year American operation in Afghanistan and the extreme polarization of the domestic political agenda make Washington's positions weaker than ever, while reminding other geopolitical players that the collapse of the unipolar world is getting closer. On the other hand, the closest European ally of the United States after Great Britain, the European Union, is now not in the best position to provide them with any support. After all, Brussels is now separated from a full-fledged energy catastrophe by only one thing - Russian gas. And, judging by the current tense geopolitical situation, Europe would be foolish not to take this into account.

Despite the fact that now all supplies are being carried out by Gazprom very carefully and in full compliance with the previously concluded agreements, no one should discount the counter-sanction factor. That is why the unnamed, but everyone understands which "Western European countries" are vying with each other to convey all the delicacy of the current situation to Washington.

Its key nuance is extremely simple: Gazprom will continue its supplies exactly as long as Russian legislation allows it to do so. And if at some point it changes in response to any restrictive measures taken from outside (for example, from Brussels, which supported, as in 2014, US sanctions), European countries will not have the slightest moral right to talk about injustice. It is enough just to remember the situation around the Mistrals.

As you know, the Russian side, represented by the United Shipbuilding Corporation, in 2010 reached an agreement with the French state-owned company DCNS and the STX Saint-Nazaire shipyard on the supply of Mistral-class helicopter carriers. However, in 2014, when the construction of the first two ships had already been completed, French President François Hollande suddenly announced that they would not be transferred to Russia. The reason then voiced by the French leader boiled down to the "situation in Ukraine." This is how, easily and simply, official contracts, de facto concluded on behalf of the leading European power, were trampled upon by a wave of the hand from across the ocean. As a result, despite the fact that the Russian sailors trained on one of the ships for more than one month, they had to go back, and the Russian Mistral never got it. Keeping all this in mind, it becomes obvious even to Europeans that Russia, taught by such experience, will not be uncomfortable with the issue of imposing retaliatory sanctions. And no contracts will save you here. The hand will shut off the gas valve in case of something, no one will flinch. After all, this is exactly what the true mirroring of the external looks like. policy.

Why is the EU afraid of sanctions right now?

Of course, the European bureaucrats did not like the fact that they were not invited to the Geneva talks between Moscow and Washington. For Brussels, who imagines himself to be the center of modern European civilization, this has become a good reason to return from the world of dreams of European superintegration into the harsh reality in which no one considers him even a subject of negotiations. By this, by the way, Russia is simultaneously killing two birds with one stone: it solves its own geopolitical tasks related to the delimitation of spheres of influence and the designation of red lines, and at the same time drives another nail into the lid of NATO's coffin. After all, even the most seedy European official understands that he was not invited to negotiations on security precisely because the EU, with the giblets, handed over its own defense to the United States. And as long as the American boot tramples on the ground of the Old World, the situation is unlikely to change.

Indeed, it would hardly have been possible to find a better reason to poke Brussels' nose into this simple truth. And this is not to mention the fact that the EU is pressed not only by an internal feeling of its own geopolitical inferiority, but also by quite real problems associated with the fact that each country understands the coming energy transition in its own way. For example, Germany is strongly opposed to the construction of new nuclear power plants due to safety issues, planning to close all of its nuclear power plants next year. France, on the other hand, is going to actively develop nuclear energy, increasing the number of nuclear power plants by almost a multiple. And between the countries lies a direct border with a length of 451 km, so if the French had a new "Fukushima", the Germans, according to the theory of probability, simply cannot but catch on. And this is not to mention other European countries, each of which seeks to express its undoubtedly important opinion.

So it turns out that the cacophony of different voices from every corner of the EU regarding the construction of new nuclear power plants is gaining momentum even at the stage of discussion. It is clear that Brussels is now making Napoleonic plans with German pedantry to resolve the energy issue, but its fragmentation and heterogeneity can play a cruel joke on it. And as if one of its members did not leave "in English". Especially given the impending financial problems. After all, no matter how much Brussels repeats about control over the situation when the price of energy resources rises dozens of times, no economy unable to hold her forever. So far, the old accumulations of the European Union are enough to subsidize the energy sector and at the very least to contain the rise in prices for European residents. But that's exactly what it is for the residents. European companies, whose activities are "tied" to energy-intensive production, at the end of 2021 began to close one after another. So yes, somehow it does not look very rosy against the background of loud statements by the EU about the energy transition. Especially when you consider the fact that developing countries can quickly take the place of a bankrupt European business.

That is why European countries are afraid of the introduction of new sanctions. When money is the main stitching element of a union association, it is easy to guess what will happen when money starts to run out and prices for everything rise. And this is exactly what will happen if the flow of gas from Russia suddenly dries up.

So we get an equation with three unknowns. On the one hand, Moscow, which this time is absolutely clear and without equivocation points to the West: "This is my sphere of influence and you should not be here." On the other hand, the United States desperately does not want to retreat from its existing positions and demonstrate foreign policy vulnerability, which already looks like a Punchinelle secret. They do not want so much that they are ready to accept the most stringent sanctions against Russia, as against Iran and North Korea. But the trouble is, for the American sanctions it is quite obvious that the EU can "fly in", which "according to the laws of the genre" will simply have to support them. The result is that Russia knows that the US knows that the EU knows that the sanctions will end very badly for Europe. Truly a triangle worthy of a convoluted gangster action movie. Alas, this is the current geopolitics. There is a play of nerves. And if you don't blink or be afraid, then it is likely that Russia will be able to win in it.
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. ont65 Offline ont65
    ont65 (Oleg) 11 January 2022 09: 08
    If they are smart, then they are afraid of only one thing, that the Russian Federation will shove the West's economy into the closet, giving primacy to China ahead of schedule, by imposing an embargo on any supplies to the USA and the EU, and those with whom it will still do business will report on their use exclusively on the domestic market paying for deliveries in rubles. The ruble will grow significantly even without Nabiullina. - We need to equip Asia here and the whole story. The crisis and the second, if not the third place in the world, are the real and enduring pain of the West. And all this is done with a stroke of the pen over a shot of vodka with Comrade Xi at the same time. RF, despite its modest place, is currently a bifurcation point. The navel of the earth in other words. And it is a sin not to use this time wisely without bowing to promises and imaginary concessions. You need to forge, the time has come.
    1. Ksv Offline Ksv
      Ksv (Sergei) 11 January 2022 22: 00
      That's how it is, only our economy is also shoved into the closet. we also have something to lose, we are also very dependent on the west. We'll have to somehow agree, we can't even carry out the sowing campaign without purchases from the west, since our sowing funds were destroyed a long time ago in the nineties and were not restored for some reason ?! still.
      1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
        sH, arK 12 January 2022 13: 23
        Yes. There is something to lose. But the fact that we will lose the EU can benefit us, in the form of the development of our production, I still do not understand why wines and spirits from the EU are still not under sanctions ?! But this is a much more marginal product than any other! And it will be extremely painful for France, Italy and Spain!
        But it is difficult to replace high-value-added products, but it is very profitable! An example - go now to Globus or even to a decent Crossroads - there will be 10-5 Russian out of 6 Dor-Blue varieties, while they are 1.5-2 times cheaper and much tastier (for my taste - those French varieties that I liked too there are, but they are not 2 times more expensive, but 3-5 times more expensive!)

        The situation is the same with wines and cognacs! Yes, I still prefer a good XO from a good cognac house to 15-year-old Bagration or Fanagoria, but for the price of 2000 rubles. 20-25 year old Fanagoria leaves no stone unturned from any VSOP for the same price!

        But replacing oil and gas is not just more difficult, but MUCH DIFFICULT! Considering delivery and chemical properties (of oil). And considering that Russia is not a country of the Persian Gulf, and we have our own industry and technologies, it is generally not reasonable to sell oil and gas! Yes, it is much easier for scoundrels from the authorities to get money in their pockets right away, but if there are sanctions, then this money will be much less useless! It won't make sense to spend them on super yachts if there are problems with mooring, for example, in Nice :-) So SANCTIONS are sometimes a very effective way to push your own industry! So maybe it's worth a try ?!
        1. Ksv Offline Ksv
          Ksv (Sergei) 13 January 2022 18: 19
          Personally, I think exactly the same! But at the same time, a bad peace is better than a good war! Our government does not develop our country for several other reasons, if you know what I mean...
          P.S. the imposition of sanctions against us in '14 had a positive effect on our economy in fact. We need to prepare for such things in advance so that Europe's sanctions against us would not be a surprise as in '14, our "elite" was really scared ...
      2. ont65 Offline ont65
        ont65 (Oleg) 12 January 2022 21: 41
        War is war. The West unleashed it with the East in the struggle for primacy. By locking forces in the East with those who are ready for good-neighborliness, we weaken the West. This is the unique position of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, the West will strangle the East. He does not even hide his manners and intentions. Sanctions are also imposed on the PRC. The fate of the economies of South Korea and Japan after state containment is known. What to expect? - The collapse in the PRC?
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 11 January 2022 11: 20
    In the EU, problems are growing even without sanctions. A green frenzy led by Germany and Berbock to destroy their economy, which they don't need because it pollutes everything. They have an environmentally friendly plan: we print money, distribute it to everyone, since there will be no work, and we buy goods. It's simple - you just need to print money. The dementia of the cooks who have become ministers will definitely not be brought to any good.
    1. Ksv Offline Ksv
      Ksv (Sergei) 11 January 2022 21: 58
      Hence the conclusion - why do we need their money, which is just pieces of paper? So soon it will come to gold, which, unfortunately, we constantly send abroad, it is not clear why ...
      1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
        sH, arK 13 January 2022 19: 49
        Yes. This is the most incomprehensible! The Central Bank has a pre-emptive right of redemption under the law. But for 2 years now, he has not used this right! Doesn't buy anything! Everything, almost everything goes to the LME to the small-shaven ... The question is - what does Nabiullina do?
        But in fact, it's even worse and weirder! Shouldn't it only be about gold? What about platinum, iridium, rhodium, palladium? - these are no longer just precious metals, these are the most important elements of catalytic processes, radio electronics ... Why shouldn't the state buy them instead of fiat paper? Yes, even nickel, vanadium, copper, chromium and other "ordinary" but expensive and important materials - which can always be converted into any currency, and limiting their release to the market will significantly support their price!

        But it is clear that the authorities in Russia are not thinking about Russia! :-(
  5. Yuri Shalnov Offline Yuri Shalnov
    Yuri Shalnov (Yuri Shalnov) 28 January 2022 20: 23
    If the Russian authorities took care of their people and did not plunder the budget and the unity of the people and the government would not be in words, but in deeds, then Russia would certainly win! Now I'm not sure anymore...