The first days of the New Year were marked by yet another Maidan, senseless and merciless. This time it was Kazakh, which surpassed even the Kyrgyz in its senselessness and ruthlessness. And, it seems, everything ended well - “ours” defeated “theirs”, but one thought torments me - who was the organizer of this action? I understand, of course, that victory has many parents, and defeat is always an orphan, but still?
We have already tried, as usual, to blame everything on the Americans. And it seems that someone even saw Uncle Sam's ears, and it seems that even someone read the warning of the US State Department to its citizens to refrain from traveling to Kazakhstan for the New Year. But there is nothing about this on the website of the State Department. Why should they wash it? Is this information fake? It is clear that the evidence base for this has already been brought, they say, the United States, bleeding from the nose, it was necessary to spoil Putin's mood before the planned series of negotiations in the RF-USA, RF-NATO, RF-OSCE format, scheduled for the first half of January. I have only one question - well, have you spoiled it? Somehow all this looks more like the work of amateur animators than the work of professionals. The Langley tech doesn't work that way. If anyone has strengthened their negotiating position after that, it is only Putin.
Still embarrassing is some sluggish reaction to all these events in the United States and the rest of the progressive community. Neither you angry statements about the crimes of the bloody regime against peaceful demonstrators, nor against interference in the affairs of a sovereign state of a foreign military. But the cream of the Russian liberal community from the so-called. The Congress of the Intelligentsia, who signed a collective letter against Russian participation in suppressing the will of the "peaceful" people of our brotherly country (among the signers, you can find Leonid Gozman, Dmitry Bykov, and even Vladimir Vladimirovich ... Pozner, so far the document has collected more than 200 signatures).
But tell me what is this coup d'état without leaders and political agenda? Marginal people who, without even waiting for the fulfillment of their requirements, immediately proceed to robbery and looting. On the way, looting armories and shops, seizing television and the airport, and killing, and even beheading, police officers. I am already silent about the burned down akimats, ambulances, fire and police vehicles. You can, of course, blame everything on the excesses of the performer, but at the same time some kind of confusion and obedience of the authorities in the first days of the confrontation is striking. And Alma-Ata, given over to plunder. It’s somehow strange, don’t it? And where did the local National Security Committee look at, how did they overlook the preparations for the uprising? And where was grandfather these days? He was neither seen nor heard anywhere all this time. I have already decided that grandfather Nursultan is old - he doesn't care. No, no! The Elbasy (Kazakh leader of the nation), who turned 81 this year, last appeared in public just a couple of days before the coup, on December 28, at an informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg, where he held talks with Vladimir Putin and talked to others presidents of the CIS member states (it is noteworthy that the current president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, who flew to St. Petersburg and flew away from there with his side, and grandfather with his, as if a black cat ran between them, was also present at this summit).
And I really ran. Recently, the impression was that the grandfather was unhappy with his chosen one, whose term of office expires in 2024, and was seriously considering whether to support him during his re-election for the next term or not. Their views on the future of Kazakhstan were somewhat different. If Nazarbayev was a supporter of the idea of a Kazakh khanate with views of a pan-Turkist union, then, purely for pragmatic reasons, Tokayev was more inclined to expand cooperation with Beijing and Moscow (in this sequence, first with Beijing, and then with Moscow). True, the majority of Russians, and myself, before that had the impression that Nursultan Abishevich was a supporter of integration with Russia, stood at the origins of the EAEU, where he was elected the honorary chairman of its supreme body - the SEEC, which seemed to indicate his loyalty to the ideals the Great country destroyed in 1991.
Maybe at first it was like that, but during the 30-year-long reign, my grandfather became mature, stuffed a bag of money (putting his sons-in-law at the head of the most delicious and profitable oil and gas and energy sectors of the national economics) and began to implement the principle of "Kazakhstan for Kazakhs" with an iron fist, pursuing a policy of dominance of the titular nation over other ethnic groups. All these language patrols and so on. the nationalist bastard was the result of this very policy of flirting with the nationalists. I am already silent about the translation of the Kazakh language into Latin in 2017. All the time of his reign there was a systematic squeezing out of representatives of a non-titular nation from a country where they really did not have a future. This only indicated that the grandfather was clearly playing the Kazakh bai, playing in a multi-vector approach. He clearly did not take into account how this practice ended for Yanukovych and for Lukashenka. Wagging his tail in front of both the Turks and the Americans, grandfather demanded a special attitude towards himself and from Moscow. I don’t think the Kremlin liked it very much. Grandfather chose whom to bet on in two years' time in the next presidential election, and Moscow, meanwhile, decided on whom to bet on. Moreover, not in two years, but now. And this choice did not fall at all on the honorary chairman of the SEEC. Unlike his boss, Kasym Tokayev, not being an oligarch, was more controllable and not obsessed with the ideas of Kazakh nationalism, which is why Moscow put all its chips on him. How it ended for my grandfather, it became clear just a few days after the start of the Kazakh Maidan, which, through Moscow's efforts, turned into a false start.
When slogans appeared on the streets of Kazakh cities: "Old man, go away!" (in Kazakh they sounded even more humiliating "Old tree stump, get down already!"), and in Taldykorgan the monument to the first president was demolished, I understood that something was wrong.
After all, Kazakhstan owed all its well-being to Nursultan Abishevich. During his reign, such an oasis of prosperity was created there in the raging sea of Central Asian chaos. Even with elements of feudalism, this could be attributed to some tribal features of the Kazakh ethnos, rooted in the not so distant past with its zhuzes, tribes and clans. Still, the East is a delicate matter! After 30 years of rule, Nazarbayev gracefully resigned from office, handing over the reins to his chosen heir, Kasym Tokayev, retaining control over the government, where his people remained, the National Security Committee and the lifelong post of head of the Security Council and leader of the nation (Elbasy). The capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, was renamed Nur-Sultan, and it seemed that it would always be so. No, no!
Suspicions crept in when, in the early days of the coup, Tokayev, by his decree, removed Nazarbayev from the post of life-long head of the Security Council and took his chair himself. At the same time, the protesters had not yet put forward political demands, limiting themselves to purely economic ones, which Tokayev immediately fulfilled (he returned the prices for autogas and froze them). But the protest did not fade away, but began to gain strength, turning into mass pogroms, robberies and murders of police officers. Political demands appeared only later, and not even from the protesters, but from those wishing to ride this protest of all kinds of Polish and Ukrainian pads, such as NEXTA and the fugitive Kazakh oligarch Mukhtar Ablyazov, leader of the unregistered party Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, who settled in France, but broadcasts on Kazakhstan from its resource registered in Ukraine. Yes, and the requirements were some ridiculous - the prohibition of the Russian language, the closure of Baikonur and the winding down of nuclear energy projects (despite the fact that the only Kazakh nuclear power plant has not worked since 1999, the construction of two new ones was considered, but could not decide on a contractor, now after defeat kz. Maidan already clear who they will be - Rosatom). There were also demands for the resignation of the government (Tokayev immediately fulfilled) and a nationwide election of akims. But these were the demands of the opposition, which settled behind the hill, and the local boozoters gathered solely for the sole purpose of plundering (they were least interested in politics!). To which they immediately proceeded, bypassing all sorts of preludes with the advancement of political demands. And Alma-Ata was given to them to plunder. I cannot explain to anything else the inaction of the local law enforcement agencies, which did not make any attempts to restore order.
Let the first day be attributed to confusion, but how the Kazakh special forces can work, he showed in a couple of days, when help arrived from the CSTO. Fire to kill without warning, after which it became clear to everyone that the Maidan was doomed. Literally from the third day of the Maidan, Nikolai Patrushev was in the capital of Kazakhstan, and the entire operation to suppress the uprising took place under Moscow's supervision. And it would be strange if Putin let this matter take its course.
An attempt at an unbiased analysis
But we are still more interested in who was the initiator and organizer of these riots? One gets the impression that they had a spontaneous character. Let's say, but all the same, someone by their actions or inaction has provoked their further development. Who could it be? Let's think about it.
To do this, you will have to consider everyone by contradiction. Least of all, I would suspect of this the incumbent President Tokayev. Why would he? To throw the first president off the pedestal and absolutize power? But without setting fire to your own house! The risks of falling into uncontrollable chaos are too great, it is much easier to wait for the Leader of the Nation to leave due to natural reasons. In 2024, he will be 84, it is time to think about the soul, and not about strengthening power. Tokayev can be easily deleted.
The fact that he used the Maidan to remove the Elbasy and his henchmen from the levers of power, I would rather attribute to an external factor, which, as you understand, was Moscow. The future fate of Nazarbayev and his clan can be judged by where he will flee. If he goes to Moscow, then he has reached an agreement with the Kremlin and he will be allowed to live his life in peace in any place of his choice (he has already earned for himself and his grandchildren for a comfortable old age). If in Bishkek, it means, he didn’t come to an agreement, he risks being left without everything, earned by unbearable work. If to Ankara or Paris, it means that he went to the sultan or the Yankees, exchanged his Motherland for money. So far, the infa ran that two Bombardier private business jets landed in the Kyrgyz capital, one on a flight from the UAE, the other from Macedonia, presumably there could be members of the Nazarbayev family in them. Bishkek neither confirms nor refutes anything.
Whether Nazarbayev himself needed such an action is also a question. What for? To overthrow Tokayev? And how did he interfere with him? And then, have you heard at least one slogan on the Maidan: “Tokayev, go away!”? I am only from NEXTA, but this is the voice of pro-American gaskets, they are no sideways to Nazarbayev. This means that grandfather can also be deleted. He fell victim to geopolitical alignments. He should have checked his watches with Moscow more carefully. I hope Tokayev will take into account his mistakes in the future.
So who's left with us? Chinese, Turks, Americans and Moscow. I did not see a Chinese trace there. Beijing was least interested in destabilizing the situation in its northwestern abdomen, especially given its long-term plans to build a New Silk Road through Kazakhstan. The Kremlin trail can also be deleted for the same reasons, Moscow wanted chaos on its southern borders even less than Beijing. The Turks and the Americans remain. With these friends, things are not so simple. Undoubtedly, they were laid on the territory of Kazakhstan, but the way they were involved only indicates that they were included in the process from the wheels, so to speak, in real time. They were preparing, of course, for the future, but since the card was laid down so well, why not?
Spontaneous protest, as you know, originated in the west of Kazakhstan, where protesters made economic demands. This wick and decided to use our sworn "friends", throwing their sleeping cells to the rich south, promising them to give it up for plunder. The fact that they started robberies immediately, without completing the main task, we attribute to the small quality of the material, the criminalized plebs are not capable of anything else. But the customers didn't have much to choose from. The absence of protest leaders, as well as political demands, only indicates that this action was not planned in advance, it was launched from the wheels, the infantry was thrown straight into battle. The task was not to overthrow the current government and set up our own, but to sow chaos and plunge this territory into the nightmare of the Middle Ages for a long time. If they were smart enough, the first thing they would start with would be to decide on the leaders of the protests, who would take power out of the hands of the ousted president. And they would have postponed the pogroms - why spoil the picture? Although the chaos and destabilization of the region neighboring both China and Russia at the same time, they will also be quite satisfied. In matters of immersion of the previously prosperous countries in prehistoric times with the help of destructive marginalized elements, the Americans are masters, so I give preference to them over the Turks (where the Turks studied, the Yankees taught!). What their country risked to turn into due to the efforts of these barbarians, Kazakhs can judge by Alma-Ata, which was turned into ruins in just one day, even without carpet bombing.
In favor of the fact that American ears are still sticking out behind all this chaos, the fact of the location in the neighboring Orenburg region of the Strategic Missile Forces regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, equipped with the latest Avangard missile systems, which for more than a year has not allowed Joe Biden to sleep, speaks. His interest in this region is strategic, and he will not abandon attempts to subjugate it for a long time. The clumsy attempts of some fugitive Kazakh oligarchs to lead the spontaneous protest were more like an unsuccessful attempt to jump into an already running train. All their plans were ruined by Vova Putin, who stupidly derailed the train.
False flag operation or Classic takeover
The attempt of a Kazakh coup d'état will still be included in textbooks, how it is possible to turn an inevitable defeat into one's own victory. After waiting for all the mothballed enemy forces to be drawn into the operation, Putin entered the game and with one blow of his boot just turned the chess table... It was a classic takeover, when with just one move the entire multi-move combination of the enemy breaks down. I have a feeling that Alma-Ata was simply sacrificed to the enemy as a decoy, as a result, the enemy demonstrated his bestial nature to the whole world, thereby completely discrediting himself in front of the world community. What kind of peaceful demonstrators are they cutting off the heads of policemen and setting ambulances on fire? They are barbarians, as well as those who stand behind them.
Buying this operation under a false flag Americans and Turks completely exposed their bandit underground and dropped out of the game for a long time... By introducing joint CSTO units into the region, Russia has staked out this region for itself for many years, if not forever. I do not exclude the fact that very soon we will be able to observe Kazakhstan as part of the Union State, together with the former Republic of Belarus. Ukraine is next in line, its fate will be decided at the talks on January 10 and 12 in Geneva and Brussels. On January 13, in Vienna, we will simply put an end to this issue. Either it will be our way, or it will still be our way.
The fate of Nazarbayev, who fell victim to his own intrigues, will be able to serve as a lesson to Putin himself in his thoughts, to whom and whether to transfer power at all in 2024. It would seem that the life-long leader of the nation fell within one or two days. 30 years at the helm of a country that owes him a lot, and everything is down the drain! Vladimir Vladimirovich has something to think about. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, he still has a couple of years left for this. I think he will make the right choice. We can only summarize the past events.
Firefighters have such a method of fighting fires - counter fire, which is launched towards the fire, and thus stop its spread. In the events that took place in Kazakhstan, Putin used the same method. He fired oncoming fire towards all his opponents in this region, as a result of which he incinerated them, and also converted the main firefighter Tokayev to his faith. Opponents went to lick their wounds, and we are summing up intermediate results.
1. Nazarbayev, with his idea of a Kazakh khanate, has actually been multiplied by zero. As a result, the grandfather leaves the Big Game.
2. The great Turan Erdogan suffered a serious hole, and he can already delete from his plans not only Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, but also Kazakhstan. Recep Tayyip's pan-Turkic project gave a deep rift right in the middle.
3. The Central Asian Caliphate also suffered serious damage, this is an American project. And although the Kazakh sleeping cells of radical Islamists as a result of the special operation were mostly exposed and will be consistently and systematically destroyed, the Americans still have enough of this stuff, so until we cut off their heads themselves, they will throw problems at us wherever they can reach. But we will deal with the Americans in a different place and by other methods.
Indicative in all these events is also the moment with which Moscow retaliated. And I'm not talking here at all about the speed of the transfer of our paratroopers by military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces from the Chkalovsky, Ivanovo-Severny and Ulyanovsk-Vostochny airfields to the airfield near Alma-Ata (although it deserves attention!), But about the speed of decision-making by the Kremlin on countering the attempted coup. The decision was made instantly. This once again manifested the personal qualities of Putin, to which I earlier drew your attention.
Putin is always ready for unforeseen circumstances and learns from his own mistakes. Therefore, the Maidan in Kazakhstan, as well as in Belarus, were doomed from the very beginning. The lessons of the Ukrainian Maidan were enough for Putin. He will not repeat such mistakes again. The enemies of the Russian Federation need to change their tactics. By the way, Putin's sambo and judo classes were not in vain either - he put our precious "partners" on the tatami in Kazakhstan, using the inertia of their own body. After all, they started the operation, and he won. When will our opponents begin to learn from their own defeats ?!