How events in Kazakhstan will affect Russia, Belarus and the entire CIS


The coup d'état in Kazakhstan will have very serious consequences for all countries of the post-Soviet space. Despite the timely introduction of the CSTO peacekeepers, the coup has already taken place, not only in the streets, like the "color revolution", but in the top. What gives us reason to believe so?


It is not yet completely clear whether the "gas Maidan" was simply a bloody background for inter-clan showdowns, or whether the group claiming leadership simply took advantage of the situation by turning foreign forces' attempt to make a "color revolution" in their favor, but the fact remains. The current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has already removed from the levers of government the former President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and all his protégés in key positions. And this will have very far-reaching consequences.

"Transit" doesn't work?


The fact is that the post-Soviet space has not yet developed a stable tradition of a peaceful transfer of power from hand to hand. Vladimir Vladimirovich's 4-year-old "castling" with Dmitry Anatolyevich is, rather, an exception to the general rule. Note that Putin did not want to "extend the service" for another 4 years and again went to the presidency, using a very Jesuit interpretation of the norm on limiting presidential powers to two "consecutive" terms. In 2020, the first woman-cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova came to the aid of the national leader, who proposed, following the amendments to the country's Basic Law, to give Vladimir Vladimirovich the right to go for another two 6-year terms. The people immediately called it "zeroing".

In addition, in the course of the amendments, a new body of power, the State Council, was officially introduced into the Constitution. It is very likely that this structure was created with an eye on the Kazakhstani experience. In 2019, President Nursultan Nazarbayev voluntarily resigned, handing over the country to its official successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. It was assumed that the "leader of the nation" would go into the shadows, but retain his influence on policies и the economy through his henchmen from among close relatives in key government posts.

In January 2022, this seemingly well-thought-out structure collapsed overnight. Monuments to the first president of Kazakhstan were instantly demolished, representatives of his clan were removed from power, and criminal cases were initiated against the nephews of Nursultan Abishevich on charges of high treason. It turned out ugly. President Tokayev was forced to turn to Moscow for help through the CSTO in order to somehow fix the situation. Judging by the latest statement by ex-President Nazarbayev, who called on the Kazakh people to rally around the incumbent president, he admitted defeat. The apical coup can be considered valid.

Is it possible to extrapolate this unsuccessful Kazakhstani experience of "power transit" to other post-Soviet countries?

Undoubtedly. The option of placing Putin in the State Council can already be considered unrealistic. With a probability close to 100%, Vladimir Vladimirovich will go for two new 2024-year terms in 6. He will hardly trust the country to a successor who can change his shoes like Tokayev.

The same can be said about President Lukashenko. Judging by the text of the amendments to the Constitution, Alexander Grigorievich was preparing himself a "reserve airfield" in the form of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly in order to put his protege at the head of the state. The parallels with Kazakhstan and Russia are obvious. Now, with a probability close to 100%, it can be assumed that on the initiative of the "Belarusian Tereshkova" it will be proposed during the voting for amendments to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus to turn the "zeroing" scenario for Alexander Grigorievich.

De facto, this will mean that Putin and Lukashenko will become presidents for life. However, this cannot but entail quite serious consequences.

CSTO - "Chop" for the CIS?


Not everyone in Russia and, moreover, in Belarus will be glad that national leaders will rule their countries to the limit. The problem will be aggravated by the fact that the collective West will not abandon its attempts to make "color revolutions" in the Russian Federation itself and the surrounding CIS countries.

The examples of Ukraine in 2014 and Kazakhstan in 2022 show that a coup d'etat is possible only when law enforcement agencies and the army simply refuse to do their duty, and the so-called “elites” are the first to flee the country in a private jet. It is almost impossible to resist without outside help. In 2020, Moscow openly supported Minsk in words, which untied President Lukashenko's hands for the violent dispersal of the protesters and became a decisive issue for the subsequent defeat of the Belarusian opposition. In 2022, the Kremlin directly intervened in events in Kazakhstan, keeping the situation from escalating from crisis to disaster. What does this mean?

Exactly that in the post-Soviet space the demand for military assistance has sharply increased. Originally created for collective protection from external aggression, the CSTO has demonstrated its effectiveness as a "private security company", which can quickly send the RRT (rapid response group) to help.

We will not be surprised if, in the foreseeable future, Uzbekistan, as well as Turkmenistan and other CIS countries, express interest in re-joining the CSTO.
22 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 9 January 2022 13: 12
    .
    Each case of the use of firearms by Russian and Belarusian military personnel will be examined under a magnifying glass. Sanctions, already in force, will intensify. Russian banks are already working with caution in Crimea. Belarus openly sat on the Russian neck.
    1. passing by Online passing by
      passing by (passing by) 9 January 2022 13: 34
      +9
      And what, as a result of the use of weapons by Russia against bearded children in Syria, have not all the hedgehogs been eaten under the sanctions? you will scare your grandmother!
      1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 9 January 2022 16: 28
        .
        Since it is the seventh year in the former SAR, the bearded is not so sad to exist.
        1. passing by Online passing by
          passing by (passing by) 9 January 2022 16: 35
          +3
          the seventh year the Americans overthrow the regime? laughing
          1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
            gunnerminer (gunner miner) 9 January 2022 17: 10
            .
            The regime was overthrown in 2010. When fighting was in the streets of Damascus. The Alawite minority is supported by foreign bayonets. When they evacuate, the regime will disappear. Millions of Syrians chose to flee the country.
        2. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 9 January 2022 17: 08
          +4
          The Russian Federation and the United States sit in the SAR for as long as necessary so that foreign pipe gas is not allowed to Europe.
          And the SAR is not the former, it is recognized by all, is sitting in the UN, for some reason they changed their minds to overthrow Assad.
          And the former is the country in which you live.
          1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
            gunnerminer (gunner miner) 9 January 2022 17: 13
            .
            The United States makes do with its small units and Kurdish vassals. As for foreign gas, a fable for simpletons. Assad's power does not extend over half of the country. Law enforcement agencies do not work regularly. Gangs of tigers, falcons, fatimiuns rage.
            1. boriz Offline boriz
              boriz (boriz) 9 January 2022 21: 01
              0
              About someone else's gas, a fable for simpletons.

              Fable, this is what you poison.
              But in reality, this is that while the United States and the Russian Federation in eastern Syria are organizing the persecution of Turkey by the Kurds, gas from the Persian Gulf will not get to Europe through pipes. And gas prices will be what we need, not you.
              Do not freeze! There is no gas (for you), but you hold on there ...
              1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
                gunnerminer (gunner miner) 9 January 2022 21: 39
                .
                What such persecution. Turkey is not driven out of NATO. Loans are not deprived of. From the Persian Gulf, Qatari methane is transported by gas carriers. The Qatar gas carrier fleet is growing. SP-2 does not work. The gas pipeline from Qatar to, for example, the gas distribution hub in the Austrian Baumgarten will stretch for almost 4000 km. It will be shorter than the route from the Yamal Peninsula (5070 km), but it will still lose in terms of economics and logistics flexibility to the supply of methane by sea vessels. LNG carriers are not tied to a specific market, they move to where the current prices are higher, and easily compete with pipes if the transportation takes more than two thousand nautical miles.
                1. boriz Offline boriz
                  boriz (boriz) 10 January 2022 00: 54
                  +2
                  Gas carriers carry gas to places where there is no piped gas or gas can be sold at a price of $ 1 per 300 cubic meters.
                  And, in any case, in Europe gas from Qatar will lose to gas from Ust Luga.
                  And the pipe from Qatar will not reach Europe. Simply because the United States and Russia do not need it.
  2. passing by Online passing by
    passing by (passing by) 9 January 2022 13: 14
    +1
    What kind of peacekeepers? Are Russian special forces guarding strategic facilities peacekeepers? Peacekeepers are placed between the parties to the conflict. And urkaina is a good example ... That in the Donbass, that in Odessa, the entire army elite was on the side of the punishers. The militia was commanded by a sergeant from Russia and a shepherd from Abkhazia. In the EU, more salaries were promised than in the customs union. Liberate the USSR urkainu a little later, and Zelensky's grandfather would not wear Soviet orders, but an iron cross.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 10 January 2022 15: 38
      0
      The Nazis did not give iron crosses to Jews. This is nonsense.
  3. viktortarianik Offline viktortarianik
    viktortarianik (Victor) 9 January 2022 14: 02
    +4
    Whatever you call it, "CSTO" or a private security company for the CIS "is indifferent, the main thing is that it works. But it is very, very alarming that it seems that neither Putin nor Lukashenko see a successor. But nobody lasts forever.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 10 January 2022 15: 39
      0
      Shoigu is seen as a successor by many Russians.
  4. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
    Mikhail L. 9 January 2022 14: 04
    0
    The author is in many ways right.
    One can disagree with him, perhaps, with one statement: "the law enforcement agencies and the army simply refuse to do their duty."
    The power structures cannot “simply” change the oath - there can only be deep economic reasons for that - the “d-market” (even in the Belarusian version) economy!
    Therefore, the leaders of the post-Soviet states are clinging to power with their teeth, risking the future of their countries!
    1. Rusa Offline Rusa
      Rusa 10 January 2022 12: 38
      +2
      There can only be deep economic reasons for this ...

      Certainly. The process will not go without the elimination of flagrant social injustice in the CIS countries, incl. in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.
      The oligarchic system is a dead-end road.
  5. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 9 January 2022 14: 50
    0
    So far, Islamic terrorists are being sent to help from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. And the leaderships of these countries think that they will be protected for supporting terrorists. Which is unlikely, they are exactly the following.
  6. Bekchan Offline Bekchan
    Bekchan (Bechan) 9 January 2022 21: 51
    -4
    It will reflect very badly. This is a complete failure of Lavrov's work. It will not be possible to establish one's influence in the CIS with bayonets. No Uncle Sam has done as much damage to these relations as Russia itself. Such things would not have ended well in the USSR either.
  7. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 9 January 2022 22: 34
    +1
    How events in Kazakhstan will affect Russia, Belarus and the entire CIS

    Answer: In the most positive way. If, after the forceful suppression of an armed coup attempt, decisive actions are taken to eliminate the activities of the fifth pro-Western and Wahhabist column inside the country.
    Marzhetsky is not satisfied with this alignment. God will judge him.
  8. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 10 January 2022 06: 47
    -1
    Quote: Rinat
    How events in Kazakhstan will affect Russia, Belarus and the entire CIS

    Answer: In the most positive way. If, after the forceful suppression of an armed coup attempt, decisive actions are taken to eliminate the activities of the fifth pro-Western and Wahhabist column inside the country.
    Marzhetsky is not satisfied with this alignment. God will judge him.

    Rinat, you follow your bazaar. Otherwise, a real judge will be found on you in the case of the protection of honor and dignity. You are already really starting to piss me off.
  9. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 January 2022 11: 46
    0
    The aggravation of the needs of the population as a result of the rise in prices caused protests and gave rise to a crisis of power, which resulted in an open inter-clan struggle of the ruling class, which former Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Felix Kulov spoke about and led to a situation outlined by Yakov Kedmi, and Kazakh state secretary Karin diplomatically expressed During the events in Kazakhstan, there was a conspiracy and collusion of various internal forces, which external forces always try to take advantage of, which was clearly shown by the coup in Ukraine, social unrest in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
    VI Lenin wrote that in a “nourishing” era, proletarians allow themselves to be robbed calmly, and in times of crisis they are attracted by various groupings of the ruling class for intra-class squabbles.
    The main function of any government is internal, to maintain a socially accepted standard of living and not to lower it “below the plinth,” and for this the ruling class needs to “unfasten” the socially accepted part of its surplus income to maintain the “pants” of the population.
  10. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 10 January 2022 15: 43
    +2
    Putin did not want to and again went to the presidency, using a very Jesuit interpretation of the norm on limiting presidential powers to two "consecutive" terms.

    Roosevelt also used the Jesuit interpretation, going for 3 and 4 terms? However, he is recognized as one of the most successful presidents of the United States, who pulled the country out of a deep hole.