The cost of gas in Europe can reach $ 3000 per thousand cubic meters


The difficult year 2021 is behind us. It is customary to wish in the New or Coming Year to solve all sore problems, but, alas, this is not always possible. The world energy crisis, for example, has not been canceled, the prices for gas, coal and even wood chips are only growing and may set new records this February, if it turns out to be especially frosty. Then $ 3000 per 1 cubic meters of gas will not be something incredible.


$ 3000 in the winter of 2022 after $ 30 per 1 cubic meters in 2020 can break not only stereotypes, but perhaps even the psyche of some consumers. However, under a certain set of circumstances, it is possible to set such price records. Ukraine can play a key role in this “gas drama”.

"Breaking templates"


Usually, the European gas market functions as follows: in the summer season, traders buy "blue fuel" at reduced prices in order to pump it into underground storage facilities and resell it at a higher price during the heating season. But in 2021, the well-oiled scheme broke down.

Gas prices began to rise noticeably already last spring. In the summer, the Europeans turned up their noses from him at a price of $ 500 per thousand cubic meters, considering such high prices to be a temporary anomaly, and by the fall they were already tearing their hair out. The historical record for the cost of "blue fuel" in the EU was set even before the start of the heating season. With the first frosts in December 2021, the ceiling of $ 2150 per thousand cubic meters was broken, which previously seemed unthinkable. Now they are talking about a new level of $ 1. How can this be possible?

The problem is complex, and the main factors that led to the energy crisis are still relevant. Own gas production in Europe is declining, and under aggressive pressure from green lobbyists, companies are simply afraid to invest in geological exploration. The stake on renewable energy sources has already shown its ambiguity. It turned out that wind generators lose a significant amount of their efficiency in frosty or light windy weather. At the same time, Gazprom, which is pushing for certification of its long-suffering Nord Stream 2 pipeline, took a rather unusual position: to supply gas to the EU exactly as stipulated in the agreements, but not more, which exacerbated the problem of energy shortages in the Old World. Also, American "allies" showed themselves in all their glory, which instead of Europe sent their LNG tankers to Southeast Asia, where there are no fewer problems, but gas is even more expensive. Nothing personal, just business.

And which of the above factors have ceased to be relevant in 2022? In general, everything remains the same. The certification process for the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is deliberately delayed. Eurobureaucrats continue to insist on accelerated "decarbonization" economics... American LNG is booming in Asia. It will be good if the breeze blows harder. However, things can go really badly if additional factors play a role.

"Breaking the bottom"


Let's imagine a situation in which the cost of 1 cubic meters of gas reaches and exceeds $ 3000. What needs to happen for this?

On the one hand, severe frosts should begin in February, but if they return in March, everything in Europe will be very bad. The fact is that by that time gas reserves in European UGS facilities will be exhausted, they will need to be replenished somewhere and somehow urgently.

On the other hand, this is where the "Ukrainian factor" can play its role. Things in poverty-stricken Square are even worse than in prosperous and well-fed Europe. Kiev may simply not have enough money to buy Russian gas from its neighbors, which is resold to it at a premium, and from the Europeans - physically the gas itself for Ukraine. Of course, nothing will be able to deter the Ukrainian leadership from "unauthorized selection" of gas from the transit pipe, in other words, from the usual theft. However, this time Gazprom's reaction may turn out to be too harsh, as the ex-head of Naftogaz Andrei Kobolev stated bluntly:

It is not difficult to predict the reaction of Russians to unauthorized selection (or, more simply, theft) of gas: stopping transit through the territory of Ukraine and the immediate termination of the current transit contract signed in December 2019.

That is, in response to the theft of its fuel, Independent Russia may stop exporting through the Ukrainian GTS altogether. This could be an extreme argument in lobbying for Nord Stream 2.

So it's unthinkable? Yes, easily! With the confluence of these factors, the price tag for "blue fuel" may well break through the level of $ 3000 per 1 cubic meters.
22 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
    Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 4 January 2022 12: 12
    -4

    Let's imagine a situation in which the cost of 1 cubic meters of gas reaches and exceeds $ 3000.

    Author Marzhetskiy miracle dreamer.

    Even if Ukraine starts to steal gas from the pipe, it is Gazprom's problem how to fulfill its obligations to European consumers.
    Gazprom will pump gas through JV1, Turkey and Yamal. The main consumers who influence the price in the EU will be provided. The issue with Transnistria ...
    It does not affect the gas price, but the question is political, whether it will be possible to arrange supplies to the PMR through Moldova.

    3000 and more is not real.
    Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian ones, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU.

    The high gas price in the EU is also due to the strong subsidence of green generation, which is very significant. There was no wind, the weather changes, if there is wind then electricity is full.

    Ukraine will not affect the price in any way. Gazprom, as it has secured its contracts with supplies, will continue to do so.

    Ukrainian freaks can help Gazprom terminate the binding contract with Ukraine, due to default. Again, if it is necessary for Gazprom.

    In the EU, spot prices will be significant over 1000 but will not exceed Asian prices. The price of gas for long-term contracts will grow due to a lag of 9 months, but this hidden price does not affect the exchange price and it will grow due to the situation that took place in 2021. Last year.
  2. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
    sH, arK 4 January 2022 12: 39
    0
    It is not clear why Gazprom previously exceeded the agreed tolerance in the contracts! The EU has long begun to promote the idea of ​​abandoning long-term agreements, which, given the stupid and conciliatory position of Gazprom, would lead, and possibly still lead, after the launch of the SP-2, to large financial losses.
    Gas is too valuable a resource to be dumped, let alone saturate the market, trying to make money on volume, not on price! But there are a lot of "forensic experts / economists" who have not yet received the honorary seal of "foreign agents" who highly recommend earning on the volume of supplies, not their price! After all, this is not only and not so much fuel, but also gas chemistry, fertilizers! And expensive fertilizers are the prospects for a huge growth in agricultural production, because hunger is certainly not an aunt! And considering the growth of agricultural production in Russia, it is reasonable to think about this market as well!
    And of course, Medvedev's decision to ban Gazprom's participation in the development of gas chemistry and the production of fertilizers was stupidity and idiocy!
  3. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 4 January 2022 12: 41
    +2
    Quote: Pandiurin
    Author Marzhetskiy miracle dreamer.

    Will see smile

    3000 and more is not real.
    Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian ones, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU.

    The same was said about the price tag of 2000 and 1000 dollars. wink
    1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
      Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 4 January 2022 13: 24
      -3
      Quote: Marzhetsky
      Quote: Pandiurin
      Author Marzhetskiy miracle dreamer.

      Will see smile

      3000 and more is not real.
      Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian ones, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU.

      The same was said about the price tag of 2000 and 1000 dollars. wink

      Of course, time will tell.

      But the main factor (and only) that will determine whether this happens or not is the price in Asia.
      The leverage for delivering gas to the EU from the US is shorter than to Asia.

      At the same price, gas from the US will go to the EU.

      2000 is just the price in Asia,
      As soon as the EU passed this level, gas carriers went to the EU. the price immediately dropped.

      You paid a lot of attention to various aspects, walked through Ukraine. Although it does not affect the price in the EU, they did not say that the price of gas in the EU cannot be higher than Asia.

      By the way, an interesting moment in Ukraine, this is a special country, prices for gas, coal, electricity there can be any, regardless of the state of the markets. The cost of gas in Ukraine above 3000 is quite probable and expected, this, of course, in accordance with the mentality, will lead to the impossibility of paying such pennies and the logical unauthorized selection of transit gas.
  4. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 January 2022 13: 24
    +6
    GazProm has supplied and is supplying gas under the contract. Anything over the contract goes at spot prices.

    The first question is why did Gazprom exceed contractual deliveries before and does not exceed them now? Because the price for the gas pipeline was higher than for the spot price. So GazProm made money on pipeline gas and never dumped. Now the spot price is higher than the contract price. But there are no buyers at that price. For example, Gazprom does not exceed the supply. That is, everything is logical and understandable. It doesn't smell like dumping.

    The second is deliveries through Ukraine. They are at a minimum. Why Gazprom signed such a contract in 2019 is incomprehensible to me. Most likely a political moment. But the economic component is also quite possible. In 2019, gas consumption in Europe was growing and there was no guarantee that Gazprom would be able to meet the growing demand. It must be remembered that in 2019 there were no lockdowns and no one could have thought of such a development. Nobody has even heard of covid.

    The third is certification of the SP-2. It seems to me that this is also politics and economics. Ukraine should be taken for maintenance. But this worn-out beggar is of no interest to anyone. Moreover, to pour billions into it so that Zelenskiy, Poroshenko and all sorts of different Tymoshenko and Kobolevs become richer. The delay in certification, it seems to me, is connected with the EU's efforts to force GasProm to increase transit through Ukraine so that the maintenance of Ukraine falls on the shoulders of Russia. When Europe understands that there will be no increase in transit, the certification of the SP-2 will take place in a matter of days. And Ukraine will be given to Russia. Well, the European taxpayer will not support Ukraine (not even a member of the EU).

    By the title of the article. The price of $ 3000 per thousand cubic meters warms the ear. But in reality this should not be expected. Production stops at a price of just over 1000. At 3000 "all that remains is to lie down and die." And not only in Europe, but also in Asia.
    Summary "A ghost is haunting Europe, the ghost of communism"!
    1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
      Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 4 January 2022 14: 32
      +2
      Quote: Bakht
      ...
      The second is deliveries through Ukraine. They are at a minimum. Why Gazprom signed such a contract in 2019 is incomprehensible to me. Most likely a political moment. But the economic component is quite possible ...

      At that time, Gazprom had no other choice. Alternative routes through Turkey have not been completed. Interpipes were brought to Serbia quite recently. It was only possible to ensure gas supplies to all consumers under the contracts with consumers in the EU in force at that time using the route through Ukraine. And the contract through Ukraine was ending. Gazprom had to sign a new contract in order to fulfill its obligations.

      But why Gazprom found itself in such a situation is already political, the US sanctions did not allow the Nord Stream to be completed by the required date.

      Now the situation is different Gazprom can do without Ukraine using the launched gas pipelines and even without Poland if using transit through Ukraine or using a built but not certified JV2.

      Now you can fulfill contracts with the EU and talk normally with the Poles and 404s, without their quirks and invariably as transit countries.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 January 2022 16: 27
        +1
        I believe then and now that in 2019 Gazprom could fulfill its contractual obligations. Without transit through Ukraine and without flows. Then there was still transit through Poland. It is for this (reinsurance) that Gazprom in 2019 pumped up the European storage facilities to the maximum. To the eyeballs. This played a role in the next year 2020. There was a lot of gas in Europe, plus lockdowns, plus they were allowed to trade and resell gas on the exchange. And prices have collapsed. The surplus of goods and prices fell to $ 50. But in the past, 2021, the situation has changed. So in 2019, there was absolutely no need for Gazprom to conclude a transit agreement with Ukraine.
        Now the "wise monkey" (GazProm) sits on the river bank and watches the corpses of enemies (energy companies, fertilizers, chemical industry) float by. Behind all this is a complete fur-bearing animal - food, automotive). And all through the efforts of the EU. SP-2 certification does not solve the problem. The main problem is at such prices (even $ 1500-2000) no buyer!
        1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
          Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 4 January 2022 16: 37
          +1
          Quote: Bakht
          I believe then and now that in 2019 Gazprom could fulfill its contractual obligations. Without transit through Ukraine and without flows. Then there was still transit through Poland ...

          I'm not really in the subject, I can be wrong.

          But as far as I understand, for the reverse across the EU, some changes were made, interconnectors were completed, etc.

          The ability to supply other EU countries through Poland, at that time, was not possible either in terms of volume or technical capabilities.
          As far as I can imagine Moldova, Serbia was then possible only through Ukraine.

          When the Turkish Stream was built, then they laid pipes to Greece, then through Bulgaria and only recently reached Serbia.

          Earlier it was not possible to provide all EU countries without using the transit capacities of Ukraine.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 January 2022 17: 41
            0
            Well, it means that Gazprom has calculated everything correctly.
  5. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 4 January 2022 14: 52
    +3
    Quote: Pandiurin
    3000 and more is not real.
    Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian price, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU

    It is worth offering a little more price in Asia and they again change direction towards Asia.
    1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
      Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 4 January 2022 15: 53
      0
      Quote: Valera75
      Quote: Pandiurin
      3000 and more is not real.
      Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian price, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU

      It is worth offering a little more price in Asia and they again change direction towards Asia.

      From China, the purchase of gas to meet domestic needs was set as a task of national importance. Those. It can be expected that when purchasing LNG on the Chinese market, subsidies from the state, interest-free loans for futures purchases, etc. will behave aggressively.

      So yes, China can be bullish and take the hit with high prices longer and higher than other LNG buyers.

      But there is always economic feasibility. Gas is used in the residential sector for electricity, heating. Providing gas to the communal sector is probably a priority task, otherwise it is a social explosion. But a smaller part of the gas goes there, most of it is industry and chemical production as well. At a certain level, it will be more profitable to stop production and pay people the minimum wage.

      Apparently the price in 2000 is close to the maximum when production becomes unprofitable.

      Therefore, at a price of 2.500, production will stop, gas consumption will drop sharply. China may hold out a little longer, but over time it will also begin to shut down factories, chemical enterprises in the first place.

      In theory, gas may rise in price, but in practice it will stop buying.

      For this reason, some experts predict possible hunger in the world, in developing countries. If the energy crisis continues, the production of fertilizers will decrease, the price for them will rise, without the use of fertilizers, in a year there will be a decrease in the yield. Rising food grain prices. Rich countries will buy at high prices, poor countries will not be able to provide themselves with sufficient food or provide an acceptable level of prices.
  6. Crunch Offline Crunch
    Crunch (Crunch) 4 January 2022 17: 04
    +2
    Quote: Pandiurin
    Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian ones, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU.

    Very late information. The heat and wind in early January made the price on the European stock exchange 800, while the prices on the Southeast Asian market were 1500. Of the 20 gas carriers that turned to bail out their European allies, 15 turned back to China. Is it really not clear that for overseas, the most important thing is loot, not obligations.
  7. Crunch Offline Crunch
    Crunch (Crunch) 4 January 2022 17: 08
    +1
    Quote: Pandiurin

    "Providing gas to the communal sector is probably a priority task, otherwise it is a social explosion."

    "In theory, gas may rise in price, but in practice it will stop buying."

    Talk to yourself there. So a social explosion, or will they stop buying? Vote, come to a consensus and come.
  8. Crunch Offline Crunch
    Crunch (Crunch) 4 January 2022 17: 11
    +1
    Quote: Valera75
    Quote: Pandiurin
    3000 and more is not real.
    Now spot prices in the EU have caught up with Asia, if the price starts to exceed the Asian price, gas carriers begin to sail to the EU

    It is worth offering a little more price in Asia and they again change direction towards Asia.

    What has already happened. You don't need to have a higher education. Here you just need to be able to think.
  9. Do not flap, cabbage roll, there will be 4 thousand each, but in Russia everyone will be chicky-bet, and as for any Czechs - do not care!
  10. Crunch Offline Crunch
    Crunch (Crunch) 4 January 2022 23: 23
    +3
    I agree with the author that the gas price may well jump over the level of 3000. Winter. Cold. Freezing of wind turbines. Lack of sun, cloudy. The covid infection ends, not immediately, but with an increase in the number of immunized citizens .... Industry revives. The Greens go completely crazy and close the nuclear power plant, part of the thermal power plant. The energy deficit is off the charts. What is wrong, cross out. You can add to the list.
  11. Crunch Offline Crunch
    Crunch (Crunch) 4 January 2022 23: 28
    +4
    Quote: Crunch
    15 turned back to China.

    new infa. One tanker moored on the shores of Europe. There was some problem, we tried to unload as soon as possible. The rest went south. 19 pieces. Waving a handle to the satellites and honking flags.
  12. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 6 January 2022 10: 20
    0
    So they will only be glad there. Berbock called for this. They do not need the economy, it pollutes nature. They have a green strategy: liquidate the economy, leave only the printing of money. Distribute money to the population and buy what they need in other countries.
  13. WASJ20061 Offline WASJ20061
    WASJ20061 (Vasya Iv) 13 January 2022 15: 11
    0
    how many smart people, and what is so bad with us?
  14. Kedrovich Offline Kedrovich
    Kedrovich (Alexa980) 18 January 2022 00: 27
    0
    It is high time for Europe to live within its own means, and not someone else's. And ordinary people should stop being consumer donkeys.
  15. dunce123 Offline dunce123
    dunce123 (Charlie) 18 January 2022 09: 44
    0
    expensive
  16. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 13 February 2022 21: 55
    0
    Great option. Europe will be asked to join the Euroses.