Russia goes all-in: the Kremlin demands a revision of the results of the Cold War
We live in an amazing time, gentlemen, don't you think? History is literally being written before our eyes. However, what happened at the end of 2021 is not something that our sworn "friends and partners", but even we could not imagine even in our most daring and rosy dreams. With its latest unprecedented statements, Moscow has put Washington in a virtually ugly, almost hopeless situation. And it’s not even surprising that, but the fact that Washington resignedly demolishes all this and only asks permission to consult with its NATO colleagues (and even then, not with everyone, but only with the elect, to which the unelected have already raised a universal noise and hi).
The Russians are known to be slow to harness, but to go fast! But in the past year, their bird-three rushed at a speed of 10-15 Machs (later you will understand that I did not use this term by accident). The "partners" fell into a stupor, unable to digest what was happening. It all started on November 18, with Putin's speech at the expanded collegium of the Russian Foreign Ministry, where the Russian president assigned Sergei Lavrov’s department the task of intensifying the Foreign Ministry’s efforts to convey Moscow’s line to its sworn “partners”. It was there that we first heard from Putin words about preventing NATO expansion to the east and about the West providing long-term legal guarantees of the security of the Russian Federation in connection with this unfortunate circumstance (and all this against the background of the groans of the Western press about the pulling together of Russian troops to the borders of Ukraine, which in fact turned out to be borders of Belarus). And already on December 7 (which is noteworthy - on the day of the 80th anniversary of the entry of the United States into World War II, which began for them with the tragedy in Pearl Harbor), on the initiative of the American side, a virtual RF-US summit is taking place, which has become a logical continuation of the previous Geneva summit six months ago. Nobody knows what the leaders of the two leading powers agreed on. From the word "absolutely"! The most banal assumption is that we agreed to negotiate. But three days later, on December 10, the Russian Foreign Ministry is rolling out a list of Russian demands on the United States and its NATO allies, publishing their theses on its website, after which events began to develop with truly kaleidoscopic speed.
Literally five days after that, on December 15, Washington's special envoy, Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, Karen Donfried, arrives in Moscow in transit through Kiev. The main purpose of her visit is to pick up Moscow's written proposals for overcoming the crisis that has arisen. For this, in the first half of the day, she meets with Lavrov's deputy, Sergei Ryabkov, and in the second, she conducts two-hour negotiations with the deputy head of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak, who is in charge of the Ukrainian direction in the Kremlin. After that, Washington's special envoy leaves for Brussels without any comment. Pay attention to its route - Kiev-Moscow-Brussels. In Kiev, she held talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, where she once again reaffirmed the US's commitment to the principle of "no decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine." How Washington follows this principle, we saw the very next day in Moscow. But the most surprising thing awaited us further - after 10 days, according to the instructions received from Washington, Zelensky began to change his shoes literally in the air.
But I will not get ahead of myself, because Washington also had reason to be surprised when, less than two days after Karen Donfried left Moscow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov convenes a special briefing for Russian and foreign journalists, where he makes the documents handed over to her public. which he distributes, printed in Russian and English, draft agreements with the United States and NATO on overcoming the crisis that has arisen between the parties to the journalists invited to the briefing. Washington did not expect such a turn of events. At least until now, this has not been the case in undercover diplomacy. "Fi, how ugly!" - as soon as they were about to tighten them, Sergei Lavrov cooled them down with the words: “Get used to it, gentlemen, the rules are changing! You won't be able to chat more and roll up your oral promises. " Russia has brought the negotiations into the public sphere, wanting to avoid non-compliance with the agreements reached and a possible distortion of facts.
Their European comrades-in-arms already understood that the rules were changing when the Russian Foreign Ministry published a private correspondence between Sergei Lavrov and his German and French colleagues Heiko Maas and Jean-Yves Le Drian. This "impudent" behavior of Moscow was caused by the distortion of the European negotiators of Russia's position in the Normandy format and its role in the settlement of the internal Ukrainian conflict. In their correspondence, they agreed with Moscow, but publicly declared the exact opposite. More with a similar RF is not going to put up! If this came as a complete surprise to our American and European partners, then it is exclusively their personal difficulties. It was not in vain that I began my review of past events with Putin's speech at the expanded collegium of the Russian Foreign Ministry, where he called on diplomats to intensify their efforts to resolve the existing crisis between the Russian Federation and the West. It is better not to aggravate and not lead Putin to say something like that at the expanded collegium of the RF Ministry of Defense (but we will get to it, Putin also spoke at it, on December 21).
"And now Humpback!" (With). "I have no other menu for you!" (S.A. Ryabkov)
The fact that the Kremlin went for broke became clear immediately after the publication of Moscow's demands on the Foreign Ministry's website. But the Kremlin did not stop there. By publicizing his claims, he thereby doubled the stakes. Then Washington found itself in a situation that is described in chess as zugzwang. Moscow's demands looked like an ultimatum both in form and in content. Agreeing with them was tantamount to admitting its own defeat, but the White House could not refuse to consider them. For some reason, I will tell you separately, take my word for it, the arguments of the Kremlin were reinforced concrete. Biden was informed of their presence by his intelligence officers even before his first meeting with Putin in Geneva. Why they were so convincing, it will become clear later, now I will just remind you that both summits (both the Geneva and the virtual) were initiated by the American side (why, think for yourself ?!).
But the Kremlin did not stop there either. During the briefing for Russian and foreign journalists, Ryabkov, who convened it, first triples and then quadruples the already high stakes, telling the audience that the documents presented by Moscow should not be viewed as a menu from which individual items can be selected - this is a comprehensive proposal that should be taken (or not taken) solely as a package. While foreign journalists were digesting this stunning news, he finished them off with another, announcing the final date for considering Moscow's proposals. The Kremlin gives 30 days for everything, after which the submitted documents become invalid (the deadline will happen exactly on January 14, 2022). Washington has already reacted to it by scheduling another meeting for January 10, which is to be held offline in Geneva at the level of specially selected negotiators with broad powers. The fact that the Russian Foreign Ministry sent an ultimatum to our "sworn friends and partners" makes this event especially piquant, the most intelligent of Sergei Viktorovich's deputies, the most intelligent Sergei Alekseevich Ryabkov. And he successfully coped with the mission entrusted to him, once again proving the high level of domestic diplomacy.
Another deputy of Lavrov, Alexander Grushko, has already hammered a nail into the coffin of our "partners", who in an interview with Vladimir Solovyov said that in case of rejection of our proposals, Russia reserves the right to take military and military-technical measures. And then, overseas, someone really felt bad.
Back to the USSR
It's time to say what kind of proposals there were, to which the West could not go without losing face. In a nutshell, the Kremlin, in an ultimatum, offered the States to zero the results of the Cold War, to get out of Europe from the territories adjacent to Russia with their nuclear weapons of any range and not to threaten us in the future. Those. in fact, the Kremlin offered the States to return back to the USSR, not literally, but in fact, to restore the status quo as of May 27, 1997. Agree that such statements are arrogance! Not even arrogance, but outrageous arrogance! And the first thing that comes to mind is to send the Kremlin to hell with its proposals. Why didn't the States do this? Moreover, they accepted Moscow's proposals for consideration. Apparently, there were iron arguments on the side of the Kremlin. And Biden knew about them! But about this, as I promised, in the next text. Believe me, all your assumptions are past the box office, there is no talk about our missiles in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and not even about the deployment of our Strategic Missile Forces on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, and even less about a possible military alliance with China. Why do we need China? Where are we and where are the Chinese? We ourselves with a mustache! It's still tougher there. You know Putin - he never bluffs, he always plays face-to-face, but his every subsequent proposal is always worse than the previous one. So Biden is trying to agree with the first, knowing from Obama's experience that the second proposal will be much worse. What cannot be taken away from Putin is that he never acts rashly. All his actions are planned in advance, and he always performs them with a cold head, choosing for this the most suitable moment for himself and the most inappropriate for his opponent. So this time he ruined Biden's Christmas. Moreover, he deliberately hit the backhand where he did not expect at all, choosing for this also the most daring form.
Moscow's demands are set out in two documents, separately for the States and separately for the NATO bloc. Short, but tasteful. A total of 8 articles of claims against the United States and 9 articles against NATO. But each of them causes complete amazement - are you all this serious? Yes seriously! We are not joking, and we do not intend to wait any longer! Either you accept our demands, or you don’t exact. To begin with, Russia offers the United States and NATO to get out of our borders. Moreover, we are not even talking about the borders of Ukraine and Georgia, as potential NATO members, Russia puts an end to this, as well as the prospects of other republics of the former Union to get into the Alliance, this topic is closed once and for all, from nowhere and forever is the zone of vital interests of the Russian Federation, forget even the road here (Ryabkov went even further in his interview to Interfax, proposing to withdraw the decisions of the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest on the possible admission of Ukraine and Georgia to it). But even this did not seem enough for Russia, and it demanded that the United States, remembering that two years ago, through Trump's efforts, withdrew from the INF Treaty, remove its nuclear weapons of any range and infrastructure from Europe to its national territory and continue to refrain from deploying it near our borders. Here we are talking not only about missile defense systems in Romania and Poland, the launchers of which can be used for cruise Tomahawks, but also about all unconventional short and medium-range ground-based missiles that Washington dreams of returning to Europe, as well as nuclear bombs. , which are already stored there at American military bases in Germany and Turkey. This provision applies to strategic bombers and surface ships of all classes carrying nuclear weapons. Note that there are no submarines with nuclear weapons on board. What is it for? And besides, for the last 70 years, whether we like it or not, nuclear weapons have been the guarantor of world peace. With our proposals, we simply do not allow the United States to break the current balance of power.
Art. 4. The United States of America will not establish military bases on the territory of states that were previously part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activity, or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.
Art. 5. The parties refrain from flying heavy bombers equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear weapons, and finding surface warships of all classes, including within alliances, coalitions and organizations, in areas, respectively, outside the national airspace and outside national territorial waters. from where they can hit targets on the territory of the other Party.
Art. 5. The parties refrain from flying heavy bombers equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear weapons, and finding surface warships of all classes, including within alliances, coalitions and organizations, in areas, respectively, outside the national airspace and outside national territorial waters. from where they can hit targets on the territory of the other Party.
This article also includes the coordination of the maximum permissible rendezvous distances of warships and aircraft in the open sea and in the airspace above it.
Art. 6. The Parties undertake not to deploy ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles outside their national territory, as well as in those areas of their national territory from which such weapons are capable of hitting targets on the national territory of the other Party.
This point immediately puts an end to all American RMSD, why should they, if they cannot reach the Russian Federation from their territory, there the maximum range of such a missile is 5,5 thousand km, even from Alaska they can only reach our Chukotka and a piece Kamchatka, which reduces the level of threats to zero and makes RMSD unnecessary.
Art. 7. The Parties exclude the deployment of nuclear weapons outside national territory and return such weapons already deployed outside the national territory at the time this Treaty enters into force to the national territory. The parties will eliminate all existing infrastructure for the deployment of nuclear weapons outside national territory. The Parties shall not train military personnel and civilians from non-nuclear-weapon countries to use such weapons.
These are the provisions of the Treaty with the United States. As you can see, everything is extremely short and clear (my explanations were longer). The last point presupposes the prevention of the transfer of nuclear weapons to other parties, in particular, the involvement of the air force of Germany or some other NATO country (except France and Britain) for air strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation using American nuclear bombs. Article 4 especially emphasizes the inadmissibility of establishing military bases on the territory of non-NATO countries on a bilateral basis, i.e. what is happening now in Ukraine and Georgia (why would the States need NATO if they can create their bases there anyway on the basis of bilateral agreements).
In the Treaty with NATO, Russia has gone even further.
Art. 3. Participants confirm that they do not view each other as opponents. The participants maintain a dialogue and interact to improve the mechanisms for preventing incidents on the high seas and in the airspace above it (primarily in the Baltic and the Black Sea region).
Art. 4. The Russian Federation and all the Participants that were, as of May 27, 1997, member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, accordingly, do not deploy their armed forces and weapons on the territory of all other European states in addition to the forces stationed on this territory as of May 27, 1997
Art. 7. Participants who are member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization refuse to conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine, as well as other states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia (all joint exercises are stipulated no higher than the brigade level - this is no more than 2-3 thousand people, at distances of agreed width and configuration from the border line of the Russian Federation and the CSTO countries - author's note).
Art. 4. The Russian Federation and all the Participants that were, as of May 27, 1997, member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, accordingly, do not deploy their armed forces and weapons on the territory of all other European states in addition to the forces stationed on this territory as of May 27, 1997
Art. 7. Participants who are member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization refuse to conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine, as well as other states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia (all joint exercises are stipulated no higher than the brigade level - this is no more than 2-3 thousand people, at distances of agreed width and configuration from the border line of the Russian Federation and the CSTO countries - author's note).
And all this ends with Article 9, which specifies that any party to the agreement can withdraw from it by sending the appropriate notification to the depositary. The agreement will terminate for such a participant 30 days after the notification is received by the depositary.
Summary: Security of the Russian Federation Ukraine will grow
To summarize, Moscow offers the States and their partners to create a security belt around the Russian Federation, i.e. reset the results of the Cold War, in which the United States considers itself victors, and return not even to 1997, but to 1991, when, after the collapse of the Union and the Warsaw Pact, five European countries - Austria, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland and Ireland, each pursuing their own goals, but still confirmed their neutral status. Sweden, Ireland and Switzerland are of little concern to us now, but the neutrality of Austria, adopted in 1955 by its parliament as a constitutional law, proclaiming its eternal neutrality and refusal in the future to participate in any military blocs and alliances and a ban on the deployment of any military bases on its territory, as well as the neutrality of Finland, established following the results of World War II by the Soviet-Finnish treaty of 1948, and subsequently recognized by all the major players of the Cold War, are of great interest to us. These countries, together with the countries of the Warsaw Pact Organization, created that very security buffer between the USSR and the aggressive NATO bloc. From a position of strength, Russia is now demanding the restoration of the status quo lost in 1991, extending this rule to Ukraine, first of all, as well as to the entire post-Soviet space, except for the Baltic countries (although, if they yelp loudly, we can extend this rule to them too) ... Why this happened, I will explain in the following texts, but for now I wanted to fix the idea of the Finnishization of Ukraine as a way out of the current impasse, so as not to lead to the disappearance of this pseudo-country from political maps of the world in case of ignoring our requirements.
I would like to remind you that at the next annual press conference of the President of the Russian Federation to the question of the journalist of the British channel "Sky News" whether Russia can guarantee non-aggression against Ukraine, Putin did not give a direct answer, referring to the fact that it would depend on the West, thus, both Zelensky and Biden are in a state of unstable equilibrium - a step left or right - and you are dead. Putin ended his answer to the representative of Foggy Albion with the words:
This is not us for you, but you must give us guarantees! Moreover, immediately.
Earlier, Putin has already very clearly outlined his position on this issue, starting from the concept of freedom.
Every person is born to be free. This is his birthright! But the freedom of each individual person ends where the freedom of another person begins.
It is the same with security. Ukraine's security ends where Russia's security begins. Ukraine will either be a friendly country to Russia, neutral in relation to any military blocs, or it will not exist at all. This is the objective reality. It is dictated by Russia by the right of the strong. For the simple reason that the gunboat policy has not yet been canceled! You can ask the cheerful old man Joe about this, who with the help of his 11 AUG (aircraft carrier strike groups) can drive anyone into the Stone Age (anyone except the Russian Federation!). I hope I have conveyed the idea of the President of the Russian Federation to you.
That's all for now. To be continued.
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