The US can arrange the EU "Great Depression-2", but it can end it at once


Six months ago, the cost of 1 thousand cubic meters of gas in Europe at 1 thousand dollars seemed like some unthinkable nonsense. On December 21, 2021, the cost of blue fuel futures on European trading floors reached $ 2190, breaking through either the “ceiling” or the “bottom”. Is it possible to maintain competitiveness economics The old world with such price tags for energy carriers, and isn't the Great Depression-2 coming, about which they are already talking quite seriously?


Much has already been said about the reasons for the current unprecedented energy crisis. Among them: a decrease in the volume of traditional generation in favor of the so-called renewable, "green" energy sources in the presence of predominantly calm weather, a low level of filling of European gas storage facilities, as well as the "special" position of Gazprom, which stands on supplying to Europe as much gas as stipulated by the current contracts, and not a cubic meter more. The latter made it possible for ill-wishers to accuse the Russian company of provoking and aggravating the energy crisis, which is completely incorrect.

Meanwhile, things in the Old World are not going in the best way. If in the summer the Europeans turned up their noses from gas at a price of $ 500 per thousand cubic meters, then, undoubtedly, they tore their hair out when the price tag rose to $ 1 and more. According to experts, a “psychologically important mark” has been passed. At the end of 2021, the psyche of consumers was clearly completely traumatized when the cost of "blue fuel" exceeded 2 thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters. Since super-expensive gas also means super-expensive electricity, as well as super-expensive raw materials for the chemical industry, the question arises, how is the European industry doing there?

And she's not doing well. The first to hit the price hit were fertilizer producers, who were forced to stop production, which suddenly became unprofitable. This automatically led to problems for farmers, as well as for retail chains due to the banal shortage of packaging for storing food. Then the metallurgists faced difficulties. ArcelorMittal, the largest concern in Europe, began to selectively suspend the operation of electric arc furnaces due to the excessively expensive electricity. By the way, this corporation holds 10% of the world market. A fourfold increase in electricity costs forced the Spanish steel company Sidenor to cut production by 30%. Industry association UK Steel has warned that metal production in the United Kingdom could become unprofitable. Britain's Energy Intensive Users Group (EIUG) has already stopped steelmaking. The German company for the extraction and processing of copper Aurubis AG has officially notified the shareholders of the impossibility of paying dividends due to a decrease in its marginality. The Belgian company Nyrstar will suspend zinc production from the beginning of 2022.

Following the fertilizer producers in the UK, the German company SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritzо reduced the production of ammonia required for nitrogen fertilizers and reagents for cleaning diesel engines by 20%. The global chemical giant BASF announced a decrease in profitability due to abnormally high electricity tariffs, despite the fact that it generates about 80% of the volumes it needs at its own facilities. French sugar and starch companies Tereos and Roquette Freres have warned that their products may be discontinued.

Somehow it doesn't look very good. Problems with metallurgists will lead to higher costs in the auto and aviation industries, in the construction sector, shipbuilding, and in farmers - to higher food prices, which may soon surprise the well-fed Old World even more unpleasantly than now. The case smacks of almost a new "Great Depression". However, it is still too early to bury the Old World. Unexpectedly, the “market” intervened with his “invisible hand”.

A few days ago, all LNG tankers went to Southeast Asia, where prices are 1 thousand cubic meters higher, stubbornly ignoring the problems of the Europeans. When the cost of futures on trading floors in the EU exceeded $ 2, reaching $ 2190, exporters of liquefied natural gas "psychologically broke down".
It was quite funny from the outside to observe how the course from Asia to Europe was changing for tankers leaving the USA, Australia and Qatar. The first to turn to the Old World were two tankers with American LNG, then there were ten, fifteen, and then all thirty. For the first time since 2009, "blue fuel" was sent to Europe by the Australians. The tankers went to the UK, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Malta and Gibraltar. The price tags immediately dropped to $ 1500, and then to $ 1300. So the Americans and Australians saved the Europeans from the "intrigues" of the Russian "Gazprom", the cavalry was ripe in time.

What conclusions can be drawn from what happened? The situation in the global energy market is extremely serious and will have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. However, the United States and its allied Australia have the opportunity at a critical moment to intervene and by a strong-willed decision to keep Europe sliding into it on the edge of the abyss. LNG supplies, with all their drawbacks, are a very flexible tool for influencing the energy market: they removed the volumes - they made a deficit, returned them - they saved them. Very comfortably. In fact, the US can arrange the EU "Great Depression-2", but it can stop it at once.
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  1. S WITH Offline S WITH
    S WITH (N S) 25 December 2021 19: 06
    +5
    The Russian Federation can also stop the supply of gas, oil, metals .. everything will be bought by the APR where 3,5 billion people live, the United States will not be able to replace the supplies of the Russian Federation
  2. Vermont Offline Vermont
    Vermont (Aslan Tsoutiev) 25 December 2021 19: 20
    -7
    Well, they forget about something else. First, it is very interesting why high gas prices are "unprofitable" for Europe and ... not unprofitable for Asian countries? Do they have "special nanotechnology" there, or what? "Iron", or what? And the second thing. Production in Europe and Asia will rise in price due to high gas prices, and all products supplied to Russia will rise in price. And what is supplied to Russia? Yes, everything .. down to panties and socks. In a couple of months, "dear Russians" will pay everything to Europe and Asia for their "expensive" gas sold. There is almost no production of its own in Russia. There are no miracles in the world and you will have to "return to the backside" the super-profits received for your expensive gas for the more expensive goods from Europe and Asia. All goods delivered from Europe and Asia will include additional gas prices. And third, and I think the most important thing. The Europeans will "firmly" take into account the lesson Russia has taught them in gas prices. They saw how Putin could take them by the throat at any moment. And if they did not believe in this before, now they are convinced. Therefore, from the beginning of spring, they will begin to develop alternative energy like mad. Or something different. It is clear that now they will do everything so that they will not be on such a "hook" again next winter .... Now they will seriously "ditch" the entire "oil and gas" of Russia, giving up gas and oil to the maximum. If not fools, of course ...
    1. S WITH Offline S WITH
      S WITH (N S) 25 December 2021 19: 36
      +9
      yeah, you haven't been to Russia for a long time, otherwise you saw that all the products are mainly Russian, except for cheap Chinese consumer goods, phones and luxury goods for the rich. no alternative energy will be able to produce energy for heating 5 hundred million people in the EU and for industry, everyone is already convinced of this, so the Hans asked to build SP2.
    2. DVF Offline DVF
      DVF (Denis) 26 December 2021 08: 16
      0
      You have no production in Ukraine.
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Oleshko2 Offline Oleshko2
    Oleshko2 (Oleg) 25 December 2021 21: 34
    +4
    It would be nice to see the calculation in figures of how these 30 tankers will cover the gas shortage in Europe. And how long will it last.
    Determination of the market price on the stock exchange is determined not by the availability of goods, but by rumors, gossip and "the exhaust of experts". If only manufacturers were allowed to trade on the exchange, then the price would be appropriate, and not multiplied. And by launching speculators there, they get that it is not the market that dictates the price, but the speculators. GAZPROM does not dictate the price on the European market. He works under long-term contracts. He does not use additional capacities beyond the contracts. And don't forget who else supplies gas to Europe.
    About expensive goods from Europe to Russia. Remember how suddenly the WTO screamed "Russia must be punished for import substitution" ... We have household appliances from Russia in Ukraine. Straight zrada on zrada.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 26 December 2021 02: 03
      +2
      It would be nice to see the calculation in figures of how these 30 tankers will cover the gas shortage in Europe.

      It would also be nice to know how many of these gas carriers left Ust Luga. This route has been mastered for a long time.

      GAZPROM does not dictate the price on the European market. He works under long-term contracts.

      Well, Gazprom does not forget about the spot, why lose an extra dollar. Or a couple of billion. They do not lie on the road.
    2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 26 December 2021 09: 36
      -4
      We have household appliances from Russia in Ukraine. Straight zrada on zrada.

      And soon it will be in the whole of Eastern Europe. It is not for nothing that the Skolkovo people work in barracks mode.
      1. Siluch Offline Siluch
        Siluch (nik) 26 December 2021 17: 23
        -1
        Your attempts to throw at the fan are ridiculous.
  5. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 26 December 2021 02: 01
    +6
    If in the summer the Europeans turned up their noses from gas at a price of $ 500 per thousand cubic meters, then, undoubtedly, they tore their hair out when the price tag rose to $ 1 and more.

    The price tags immediately dropped to $ 1500, and then to $ 1300. So the Americans and Australians saved the Europeans from the "intrigues" of the Russian "Gazprom", the cavalry was ripe in time.

    The contradiction lies right in the text.
    $ 1 - you have to pull your hair in different places due to the high price.
    $ 1 - salvation brought to the old woman by the descendants of her former adventurers and convicts.
    Sergei slipped into the old rut: "LNG (certainly Anglo-Saxon) will save the civilized world from the evil Gazprom."

    If in the summer the Europeans turned up their noses on gas at a price of $ 500 ...

    This is where the problem is. The European economy is geared towards low gas prices. Below $ 500.
    In pursuit of freebies, Europe has driven itself into a trap, thinking that it is being driven by Gazprom. True, Russia already 10 years ago started the combination that prepared this crisis. And he continues to keep the situation under control.
    There is no way out of it.
    Now the United States, Russia, China and, most likely, India will close their economies. And the first stage is the disconnection of Russia, China, India from the United States. Moreover, it may turn out that the United States will begin to close the economy.
    And high energy prices will give Russia and the United States a better start than they could without them.
    If before the production was moved to China, due to the fact that the Chinese worked for a bowl of rice, now in the Russian Federation the production will move in pursuit of cheap energy sources. Everyone will forget about anti-Russian sanctions and at the snap of their fingers they will start building any production facilities in Russia (for Russia). Like in the early 1930s. Then there was a crisis, now the crisis begins. Not only energetic.
    But they will not build - not only will we turn off gas and electricity, but we will not sell food at a normal price, we will not sell fertilizers at a normal price ... And so on.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 26 December 2021 09: 34
      -3
      And high energy prices will give Russia and the United States a better start than they could without them.

      The start is especially important for the Russian economy. It has been preparing an economic leap forward, 30 years! No matter how brilliant manager Anatoly Borisovich Chubais came up with this brilliant plan.
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 26 December 2021 12: 26
        +2
        ABCh is an ingenious terminator. He can only destroy. Hasn't created anything yet. Thank God, they wiped it off from the energy. After the showdown on Rusnano, he will be on the hook. The rest of the high-ranking nanists will be jailed, and Chubais will be left free. But what they dig up on him - they will show. And he will sit quietly, like a mouse under a broom. You cannot touch him yet, he is the main representative of liberal bankers in Russia.
        1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
          gunnerminer (gunner miner) 26 December 2021 14: 04
          -4
          After the showdown on Rusnano, he will be on the hook.

          He is a generator of ideas. And these ideas are embodied by other people. He is more knowledgeable in detailed matters. He is beyond suspicion. That is why they take him to new heights and new positions. He is not suspicious. All his advisers and consultants from the CIA were expelled from Russia.

          You cannot touch him yet, he is the main representative of liberal bankers in Russia.

          That's right, the Russian financial system is based on them, a guarantee of stability.
  6. Face Offline Face
    Face (Alexander Lik) 26 December 2021 05: 08
    +2
    It's okay, dear Europeans. You can buy everything from us) And what you can't, come to us and make it yourself.

    It will be so soon.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 26 December 2021 09: 31
      -5
      They will not go anywhere. They will crawl on their knees, and they will also ask for forgiveness for the sanctions, for the Donbass. You are going the right way, gentlemen Gazpromovtsy. All of Russia is looking at you.
  7. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 26 December 2021 09: 27
    -5
    Handsome LNG carriers. Many sailors would like to be hired to work on board. Luxurious living conditions, plenty of fresh water, salaries higher than LPG gas carriers and chemical carriers. Turks carry methane from the Adjir port of Arzyu. Every day such a gas carrier departs from the terminal to Turkey. Gazprom trades, mainly on long-term contracts, and can sell on the spot, only gas in excess of the contract amount. But this is already done by its subsidiaries. The US will make every effort to cram its methane instead of Gazprom. It looks like the EU. decided to test the intentions of Gazprom in such a situation, and to start up with American methane, to be afraid of being left without gas.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 26 December 2021 12: 40
      +2
      The United States will make every effort to cram its methane instead of Gazprom

      They don't have that much gas. And the USA can supply gas to Europe only at high prices. I don’t know what the EU is testing there, but the US can only sell LNG in excess of the amount supplied by Gazprom. The United States and the Russian Federation have peacefully divided the markets and limited the supply of foreign pipe gas to Europe. The market is big enough for them. And soon it will increase even more.
      In addition, LNG cannot squeeze pipe gas in any way. The chemical industry needs high molecular weight fractions. And in LNG - naked methane. Larger molecules are easier to make plastics, rubbers, varnishes / paints, etc.
      Again, it is not known how much "American" LNG arrived from Ust-Luga. Americans often indulge in this. Why drag gas from the Gulf of Mexico? Ust-Luga is nearby.
      1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 26 December 2021 14: 15
        -5
        They don't have that much gas.

        That's right, the extra quantities will be bought from the Australians, from other traders.

        And the USA can supply gas to Europe only at high prices. I don’t know what the EU is testing there, but the US can only sell LNG in excess of the amount supplied by Gazprom.

        That is why they are wiping out Gazprom from the EU market, only high prices for their own methane.

        The United States and the Russian Federation have peacefully divided the markets and limited the supply of foreign pipe gas to Europe.

        Never before have relations between the United States and Russia been so peaceful. laughing

        In addition, LNG cannot squeeze pipe gas in any way.

        Gazprom drives the same methane through pipes. Petroleum gases are supplied by sea. On LPG carriers.

        Larger molecules are easier to make plastics, rubbers, varnishes / paints, etc.

        Chemical gases are delivered on LPG carriers. Russia does not export such gases on an industrial scale. There are players Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Malaysia, Indonesia, France, Norway.

        Why drag gas from the Gulf of Mexico? Ust-Luga is nearby.

        Not always loot, evil wins.
  8. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 27 December 2021 15: 17
    +1
    ... However, the United States and its allied Australia have the opportunity at a critical moment to intervene and by a strong-willed decision to keep Europe sliding into it on the edge of the abyss. LNG supplies, with all their drawbacks, are a very flexible tool for influencing the energy market: if they removed volumes, they made a deficit, and if they returned them, they saved them. Very comfortably. In fact, the US can arrange the EU "Great Depression-2", but it can stop it at once.

    I don’t understand in any way, whether the author is a complete layman, or writes under someone’s dictation. "Compassionate America" ​​rushes to save its ally in Europe. And where are the real interests? Before that, "compassionate America" ​​saved allies in Southeast Asia, redirecting all its capacities there, earning loot on the difference in prices in Europe and Asia? And, when this difference swung towards Europe, didn't they do the same, redirecting steamers to Europe? Wake up, Marzhetsky! When will you stop casting lies on the obvious? Don't you WANT to notice the venality of the politics of these cowboys who repeatedly throw their allies around the world? Or have you been ordered not to notice?
    1. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
      dub0vitsky (Victor) 27 December 2021 21: 28
      0
      Stratech Marzhetskiy:

      If you are not convinced by my arguments, the lightness, you know, the first name, the lack of shaggy in the last name, then read the following:
      https://zen.yandex.ru/media/sferalive/v-evrope-podul-veter-i-ceny-na-gaz-ruhnuli-na-40-no-eto-ugrojaet-ee-energobezopasnosti-i-britanskii-termoiad-61c8a66f5060124e071d1f6e?&

      Unrealized hopes

      American and Australian companies that trade in liquefied gas, amid news of rising prices in the EU, decided to deploy gas tankers halfway through. According to various sources, this is from 30 to 50 tankers with a total gas volume of 5 million m³. And only in anticipation of this event, Dutch gas prices sank by 20%. And then the theater of the absurd began.

      The tankers were deployed not because the United States decided to help its junior partners in a difficult situation. But because at the peak the price for 1000 m³ of gas in the European market exceeded this price in the Asian market by $ 350-500.

      Over the next three days, the cost of blue fuel in the European Union fell by another 20%. As a result, by the time tankers from the United States and Australia reach Europe, they will sell their gas much cheaper than they could sell it in the Asian region. In addition, the deployed LNG carriers probably had to pay a penalty to Asian consumers.
  9. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 27 December 2021 17: 04
    0
    Quote: Vermon
    Well, they forget about something else. First, it is very interesting why high gas prices are "unprofitable" for Europe and ... not unprofitable for Asian countries? Do they have "special nanotechnology" there, or what? "Iron", or what? And the second thing. Production in Europe and Asia will rise in price due to high gas prices, and all products supplied to Russia will rise in price. And what is supplied to Russia? Yes, everything .. down to panties and socks. In a couple of months, "dear Russians" will pay everything to Europe and Asia for their "expensive" gas sold. There is almost no production of its own in Russia. There are no miracles in the world and you will have to "return to the backside" the super-profits received for your expensive gas for the more expensive goods from Europe and Asia. All goods delivered from Europe and Asia will include additional gas prices. And third, and I think the most important thing. The Europeans will "firmly" take into account the lesson Russia has taught them in gas prices. They saw how Putin could take them by the throat at any moment. And if they did not believe in this before, now they are convinced. Therefore, from the beginning of spring, they will begin to develop alternative energy like mad. Or something different. It is clear that now they will do everything so that they will not be on such a "hook" again next winter .... Now they will seriously "ditch" the entire "oil and gas" of Russia, giving up gas and oil to the maximum. If not fools, of course ...

    Expensive gas in Europe is not Putin's machinations. These are the actions of European speculators. Gas flows through pipes from the south, west, and north at prices that have long been reliably signed by Russia. The desire to earn is the sacred right of anyone who CAN come close to the faucet. Let. Any accusation. that we do not supply more, they should simply forget about it. Plasticine Russia is over. It has been said - ADDITIONAL GAS, and AT THE PRICES PREVIOUSLY SECURED, WILL GO ONLY ON SP-2.

    "Crazy" to develop energy production is possible only in bed, and those who cannot do it to others. Do It. Blockhead. You can start drilling wildly for reconnaissance. or in order to increase production, you can furiously lay pipes, set up derricks, on land, on the shelf. European gas fields are 80% depleted. That says it all. The windmills are crazy to install. Or blow madly into these windmills. Or shine beams into solar panels at night. Ways of frantic development - an immense number. Where are you going first?
  10. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 27 December 2021 22: 08
    0
    Quote: Lick
    It's okay, dear Europeans. You can buy everything from us) And what you can't, come to us and make it yourself.

    It will be so soon.

    Who will let them go to the wells? Think before you write nonsense.