Lithuania takes Belarus and Kaliningrad into a transport blockade. What to do?


On the eve of the "Reporter" came out publication, in which we considered several options for solving the problem of isolation of the Kaliningrad region from the rest of the Russian Federation. The considerations expressed in it caused a clear clouding of the minds of some of our readers, therefore it is worthwhile to bring complete clarity to this issue.


Recall that we considered three options for establishing a reliable land transport connection with the Russian exclave: power and two peaceful, which included the possibility of territorial exchange with Lithuania or buying a border section from Vilnius in Suwalkia to build a high-speed highway from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region. We especially note that we immediately dismissed the military scenario as untenable and focused exclusively on peaceful ones, therefore no one can make claims about the desire to "annex" something there.

Unfortunately, политическая the subjectivity of Vilnius raises great doubts. The Lithuanian leadership is ready to saw off its own leg in order to somehow annoy Russia. This factor, plus the position of the United States and NATO, in general, are significant obstacles to the implementation of the Suwalki Corridor project peacefully. However, the difficulties we face in no way negate the fact that the problem of the territorial isolation of the Kaliningrad region is quite real, and it is still desirable to solve it. Let's talk about the counterarguments expressed by our readers against the idea of ​​some kind of exchange between Russia and Lithuania.

Kaliningrad needs nothing


Alas, this is not at all the case. The Kaliningrad region is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, therefore it can be supplied either by transit through these countries that are members of the NATO bloc, or by sea or by air. You don't get a lot of manure by air, and the cost of the products delivered in this way will increase significantly. There remains a sea route, but it should be borne in mind that the Baltic is actually an "internal sea" for the North Atlantic Alliance with all the ensuing consequences.

What problems the neighbors from the NATO bloc can create for Kaliningrad, and not only for it, can be understood from the latest reports. So, due to the situation with illegal migrants on the Polish-Belarusian border, the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom have introduced another package economic sanctions against Minsk. For its part, Vilnius has prepared a bill that provides for a ban on the import of Belarusian goods and their transit through the territory of Lithuania. And this is very serious.

On the one hand, by the hands of the Lithuanian authorities, the collective West is dealing a powerful blow to Belarusian exports, in particular, to the sale of potash fertilizers abroad, which traditionally went in transit through the port of Klaipeda. It will not be possible to reorient these flows to the Russian Ust-Luga with a snap of the fingers, the infrastructure is not ready, which means that the official Minsk risks being left without a critical foreign exchange earnings.

On the other hand, the forced closure of transit through Belarus is also a blow to the Kaliningrad region. Governor Anton Alikhanov, who spoke about this with great concern, will not let the governor lie:

I am very worried that some initiatives are heard to limit the transit of Belarusian goods through the territory of Lithuania. And I ask everyone for help. Actually, there is Kaliningrad. And besides the fact that something can pass through us in transit, we, in fact, consume Belarusian goods - food, building materials and more.

In particular, about 30% of the concrete used for construction in the exclave is made in Belarus. Well, and, of course, Belarus supplies its foodstuffs to the Kaliningrad region. Overlapping the supply of building materials and food products will lead to a significant increase in their cost.

Note that this is just an "echo" of European sanctions against Minsk. It will be much worse if the neighbors from NATO countries begin to stifle Kaliningrad purposefully. Railroad transit to the exclave goes through Lithuania, and Russian gas is also supplied. The overlap will exacerbate the socio-economic problems of the isolated region. Yes, a receiving LNG terminal has been built, but it is still inactive, and the supply of "blue fuel" by sea in the Baltic carries a lot of risks.

Conclusion: the problem of the isolation of the Kaliningrad region is very serious, it is the real "Achilles heel" of Russia, and it must be somehow solved. Preferably, in a peaceful way.

Do you need BelNPP?


The second complaint about the publication was that we “scoundrelly” made an assumption about the admissibility of the buyout and closure of the BelNPP in exchange for a hypothetical land transport corridor through Lithuania to Kaliningrad. Some desperate Belarusians immediately gathered to start partisans against the Russians, derailing trains and blowing up bridges. Let's talk about this without unnecessary emotions leading to destructive behavior. Let's say right away that we will watch from the bell tower of Russian national interests, but we will try not to forget about the Belarusian ones either.

Does Russia need BelNPP? To say the truth, no. This is an extremely dubious project in terms of its economic feasibility, which was chosen for purely political reasons to the detriment of the construction of the Baltic nuclear power plant in the Kaliningrad region. The nuclear power plant operating in Belarus reduces the consumption of Russian gas and increases its independence from Moscow. Minsk needs it, but do we need it?

It would be much more profitable for Russia to close the BelNPP and complete the construction of the Baltic NPP instead, making its Kaliningrad region a potential exporter of electricity. In this case, it would be possible to use ready-made equipment, that is, “money down the drain” would not be wasted in vain. We are not talking about the "villainous" bankruptcy of the BelNPP, it could simply be bought from Minsk. Let us remind you that it is being built by Russian specialists using Russian loans. It would be quite possible to come to an agreement with the Belarusians amicably.

If this is the price for opening a new land transport corridor to Kaliningrad in Suwalkia, then why not? By the way, in the conditions of a transport blockade by Lithuania, Minsk itself is now extremely interested in obtaining a bypass route. If a new highway, automobile and railroad, appeared, going to the exclave, this route would be preferable for Belarus to the longer one to Ust-Luga.

But this is so, thinking out loud. It's very easy to find 1000 reasons why something can't be done instead of looking for ways to make it happen, right?
16 comments
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  1. zloybond Offline zloybond
    zloybond (steppenwolf) 24 December 2021 11: 37
    +5
    What a panic-stricken man. How many island states are there in the world. Taiwan is developing well and is not trying to shout the guard. It is high time to send alarmists to the northern regions, there it is necessary to build a new railway.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 December 2021 12: 09
      -3
      How many island states are there in the world. Taiwan is developing well and is not trying to shout the guard.

      And who is Taiwan blocking?

      It is high time to send alarmists to the northern regions, there it is necessary to build a new railway.

      OK. But let's start with fools and traitors
  2. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 24 December 2021 11: 40
    +6
    ... There remains a sea route, but it should be borne in mind that the Baltic is actually an "inland sea" for the North Atlantic Alliance with all the ensuing consequences ...

    The author cannot understand that the blockade by the sea (common to all mankind) is a declaration of war. With all that it implies, primarily for these greyhounds of the Baltic states. Which, quite possibly, will be "protected" by the godfathers from NATO in exactly the same way as the Greeks, Turks, and other members of this "alliance". It is quite possible to close the land corridors on their territory. Air is expensive, and the overflight of the territory will be carried out to close the airspace. But, the naval blockade is already from the field of schizophrenia.
  3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 December 2021 12: 07
    -6
    But, the naval blockade is already from the field of schizophrenia.

    From the field of schizophrenia - this is your reasoning about the change in the human genome. hi
  4. Saffron Offline Saffron
    Saffron (Igor) 24 December 2021 12: 30
    +1
    If they do harm and close something, then the airspace and territory of the Russian Federation and Belarus will also be closed to them. And here they are already screaming
  5. Rusa Offline Rusa
    Rusa 24 December 2021 12: 36
    +2
    There is one way - to strengthen the Navy of the Kaliningrad region, the naval base. Build new ships, planes and shipyards.
    The rest is from the evil one.
  6. Russian-speaking Caucasian 24 December 2021 12: 56
    0
    The problem is being solved. And let them try to interfere:

    https://www.rbc.ru/spb_sz/31/08/2021/612dcf479a79473e1c2fe8f2
  7. S WITH Offline S WITH
    S WITH (N S) 24 December 2021 14: 08
    +2
    what to do? close the border with Lithuania (RB) and transit for its goods, and generally close the Russian market
  8. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 24 December 2021 15: 11
    +2
    I would suggest laying a hyperloop on the seabed. Those. pneumatic mail.
    1. Sergeyjluf Offline Sergeyjluf
      Sergeyjluf (Sergei) 25 December 2021 06: 52
      0
      And it is not easier for Metrostroy to dig a tunnel (100 km) under the Suwalki corridor. What do the laws of common people say about the dungeon?
  9. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 24 December 2021 15: 17
    +6
    Lithuania will not block anything. She has already been substantively explained her place under the bench. Depriving the Chinese market.
    Now they sit quietly and rejoice at any crumb from the master's table.
    This autumn Russia had to send about 1 million tons of coal through Klaipeda. Due to the hurricane demand. And what, they refused?
    How will they block the transit to Kaliningrad? Alikhanov is a young man, overly emotional and unrestrained in language. What has already been noted.

    - And you will return these payments, compensations for the kindergarten?
    - Нет.
    - Почему?
    - Because because.

    The tongue works faster than the head.
    Lithuania itself now hangs on recharge from the BelNPP, which six months ago called for a boycott of everyone, including Ukraine. And now she is quietly sucking in and forgot about the boycott. And the gas there is Russian. LNG does not make the difference, especially since it is also Russian, regardless of who brought it.
    In the event of a conflict, Belarus and Russia will close the railway. communication with the east in full. Will close their markets. The market of Lithuania itself does not mean anything. And nobody will help Lithuania out. Considering the energy squabbles in the Baltics, the electric war between Norway and Sweden. EU - "Voronya Slobodka" (if anyone remembers Ilf and Petrov).

    Does Russia need BelNPP? To say the truth, no.

    It's good that they forgot to ask you. If it hadn't been needed, it wouldn't have been built. NPPs are being built for the perspective of the development of territories. Given the green trends, it will soon supply the entire Baltic region and northern Ukraine. And maybe Poland. Judging by the fact that Ukraine and Poland are negotiating with Westinghouse, this will not end well, and time and resources will be wasted. And everyone around will have to get hooked on the BelNPP. Even Poland will have to supply HVAC and suck aggressive and illegitimate electricity.
    Well, it's time to understand that you can start to forget about NATO. This is an outgoing character, which can be clearly seen in relation to Russia's security requirements. The most heroic ones are of the type of Estonia and Iceland (this general army does not have, only heroism). But those on whom something depends are ready to discuss.
    Flushing billions down the toilet (following the example of Lithuania) would never occur to anyone.
  10. Alexander K_2 Offline Alexander K_2
    Alexander K_2 (Alexander K) 24 December 2021 16: 52
    -1
    What a nonsense. When they wanted to close off Konigsberg? Here, the only, ally, threatened to shut off gas and oil pipelines, start transporting salt to Ust-Luga, impose its own sanctions, Russia may simply not be able to supply Belarusian shrimp, an apple, and other exotic goods that since ancient times they have been produced only in Belarus? NPPs and so Russia will take for debts!
  11. mykola kovacs Offline mykola kovacs
    mykola kovacs (mykola kovac) 24 December 2021 18: 19
    +1
    The territory of Suwalki was already bought by Stalin in 1939 from Germany. The money was paid. You just need to start a lawsuit. Either money back or a plot.
  12. nikolai.shupenin 24 December 2021 21: 19
    0
    It is high time to start ferries about five. Ust-Luga-Kaliningrad. waited
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 24 December 2021 23: 56
    +2
    In April 2016, Alexander Novak, who was then the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, told reporters that Russia was negotiating with potential buyers of electricity from the Baltic nuclear power plant. "Currently construction of the Baltic NPP suspended... Suspended nabout the reason that negotiations are underway with electricity buyers "...
    State Corporation Rosatom announced its readiness to negotiate with potential investors on the Baltic NPP project.

    https://www.interfax.ru/world/776709

    1) The construction was frozen 5 years ago because there was no agreement with the buyers. Since then, little has changed. Of course, there are tectonic shifts, but the continents are not moving as fast as we would like, borders with other neighbors except Lithuania and Poland are not expected there in the foreseeable future. It is not clear to whom they are going to sell the electricity. It is a rare nonsense to build a nuclear power plant without guaranteed electricity sales. Or is there information that Poland and Lithuania will change their position?
    2) The linkage of transit with nuclear power plants is rather strange. What does the station have to do with it? request
    3) To talk about the closure of a nuclear power plant in another sovereign country, all the more incredibly insane that has just been built, more abruptly than the closure of its nuclear power plant by Lithuania. Moreover, it looks like megalomania. It remains only to try on the cocked hat. The nuclear power plant is not yours, nor is the country. And I doubt that the Belarusians were interested in your opinion on this issue.
    ps

    a clear clouding of the mind of some of our readers

    It seems that in this institution, whoever got up earlier, had time to put on a dressing gown, he diagnoses and puts winked
  15. Dear sofa expert. 25 December 2021 12: 50
    +2
    but it should be borne in mind that the Baltic is actually an "internal sea" for the North Atlantic alliance with all the ensuing consequences

    The three Baltic countries and Poland are all that stand in opposition to Russia in the region adjacent to Kaliningrad.
    With what (next) fright this "internal sea" of NATO?
  16. The comment was deleted.