Can Kazakhstan join the union of Russia and Belarus

The transition from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet, the so-called "language patrols" and the scene with the "shooting of a student" staged in a Kazakhstani kindergarten made a lot of noise in our country. All this is perceived as evidence of the weakening of Russia's positions in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, in general, in whose place mighty China has come. But is everything so hopeless, and can Moscow once again return the former Soviet republics to its orbit of influence?

The fact that Russia has indeed surrendered a significant part of its positions in the region, unfortunately, is beyond doubt. Since the 2014s, the Kremlin has been primarily concerned with building the so-called “vertical of power”, organizing the export of hydrocarbon and other raw materials abroad, and redistributing financial flows. There was no time for internal processes either in Ukraine, or in Belarus, or in Kazakhstan, or other CIS countries, which made itself felt in 2020 and XNUMX in Kiev and Minsk, respectively. Nur-Sultan still takes a quite friendly position in relation to Moscow, but it is obvious that this is mainly connected personally with the figure of the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, one of the initiators of the reintegration processes in the post-Soviet space. What will happen next is not clear.

Rather, everything is clear. It is enough to look at what is happening in Ukraine or Belarus. One has only to let go of the rampant local nationalism, and even support it at the power level, start oppressing the Russians in Northern Kazakhstan, and we will get another hostile country in our southern underbelly. Is it possible to be ahead of the curve? Maybe yes.

To answer this question, it is necessary to comprehensively assess the processes taking place in Central Asia. China is increasingly taking Russia's place there, which has a powerful the economy, and is also actively trying to integrate Turkey with its pan-Turkist project. But the main new player is still the Celestial Empire. Her arrival was initially received with great enthusiasm by many in the former Soviet republics. It was believed that by "getting rid of the Russian occupiers" and receiving Chinese investment, young democracies would live happily ever after. However, the reality turned out to be somewhat different.

Indeed, the money came, but not quite in the form the local population would like. Establishing close corrupt ties with the authorities and regional elites is considered the corporate identity of Chinese business. Having received "bakshish", they gave the PRC access to resources: oil, gas, metals, as well as to the infrastructure Beijing needed to build its "New Silk Road" to Europe. At the same time, Chinese entrepreneurs manage to get contracts on surprisingly favorable terms for themselves. Is there a lot of real benefit to the Central Asian republics from such investments, a separate interesting question.

All this causes muffled irritation among the local population. According to a sociological survey from the Central Asia Barometer for 2020, about 30% of respondents in Kazakhstan have a negative attitude towards China, in Kyrgyzstan - 35%. There are also serious changes in Uzbekistan that have occurred since the death of President Islam Karimov, who adhered to policy isolationism. When in 2016 Chinese investments went to the country, 65% of those surveyed were strongly in favor, 2% were strongly against, after four years these figures were already 48% and 10%, respectively.

Why this happens is understandable. People are disappointed in the "helping hand" from Beijing, which turned out to be not disinterested. The inhabitants of the independent republics do not notice any particular benefit for themselves, but they see how the local elites “warm their hands” with Chinese money. And it would be fine if only this, the East is a delicate matter, there such things are in the order of things. Many are frightened by the overt interest of the PRC in their lands. And we are talking not only about the possible transfer of agricultural land to a long-term lease, which a few years ago terribly excited Kazakhstanis. There are rather ambiguous signals emanating from China, which even forced Nur-Sultan to send a note of protest to Beijing in 2020.

For example, in March last year, an article titled "When Kazakhstan will return to China" appeared on the Chinese social network WeChat. In April, she migrated to the famous news portal titled “Why Kazakhstan Seeks to Return to China”. It discussed a lot about the fact that at one time Kazakhstan was a vassal of the Celestial Empire and could return to it:

After the fall of the Dzungar Khanate in the 18th century, the territories of the Senior, Middle and Younger zhuzes of Kazakhstan gradually passed the Qing empire ... After the Opium War of the 19th century, the Qing empire weakened, Russia seized its lands and Kazakhstan became part of Russia. Thus, as a result of the unequal division of land, China immediately lost Kazakhstan.

The authors of the publication linked the possibility of "returning to their native harbor" with large-scale investments in the Kazakh economy, 400 thousand Chinese workers in this country, as well as with the mood of residents of small towns who consider themselves Han Chinese or their descendants. Of course, we can say that Sohu is a "yellow edition", you never know what they write there, but there is still something in what was said.

So what do we see? The fascination with China in Central Asia has already dissipated. On the contrary, Beijing has shown by the example of Lithuania that it can punish the disobedient. And if Vilnius can somehow rely on the European Union, then the “young democracies”, except Russia, have no one to rely on.

Today, against the backdrop of a potential threat emanating from Afghanistan, Moscow has real chances to strengthen its military and political presence in the Central Asian republics. In exchange for a "military roof", it is necessary to demand the re-russification of the education system and the strengthening of cultural ties. It is necessary to start working with local elites in the same way as Chinese business. And Kazakhstan can become the first to reintegrate.

No, there can be no talk of joining it to Russia. Our relationship has not grown to the level of unification with Belarus. However, why shouldn't the RF and RB conclude a confederal agreement with Kazakhstan within the framework of the Union State?

Confederation (from the late Latin confoederatio - "union, unification") is a union of sovereign states that have entered into a confederal treaty and thus united to solve common problems and carry out joint actions. The members of the confederation retain their state sovereignty, an independent system of government bodies, their legislation and transfer to the competence of the Union only the solution of a limited number of issues: defense, foreign policy.

Such a flexible form of unification with Russia and Belarus may turn out to be quite acceptable for the Kazakh elites as a counterbalance to the economic expansion of China with its unclear ultimate intentions, as well as to the potential military threat from Afghanistan. Perhaps, an invitation to a prominent leadership position in it of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev could raise the status of such a confederal union with the SG for Kazakhstan. East is a delicate matter.
21 comment
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  1. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 22 December 2021 12: 25
    Kazakh is as corrupt as an Arab. Here whoever gives more today is an ally. And tomorrow it will turn out well. Now Erdogan is buying them, and for a pittance and promises.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2021 12: 43
      Corruption is not synonymous with stupidity
    2. The comment was deleted.
  2. Alexander Klevtsov (alexander klevtsov) 22 December 2021 13: 05
    probably never
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 22 December 2021 13: 21
    as a counterbalance to China's economic expansion with its unclear ultimate intentions,

    And what is there to find out? Development of the communist idea and execution of officials, bribe-takers, embezzlers. For the people it is normal, for officials - kirdyk.
    And if we talk about confederation, then the first condition is the state status of the Russian language and not in the Latin alphabet!
  4. NikolayN Offline NikolayN
    NikolayN (Nikolai) 22 December 2021 13: 43
    Why do we need them? With their problems.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2021 14: 29
      Reintegration in the post-Soviet space, creation of a single market, united Armed Forces, upholding the rights of the Russian-speaking minority in northern Kazakhstan, where after Nazarbayev it can really go bang, like in Donbass.
      Enough for you?
      1. Vitaly Ivanov_2 Offline Vitaly Ivanov_2
        Vitaly Ivanov_2 (Vitaly Ivanov) 23 December 2021 21: 36
        No, it will bang louder there. But you can't be cute by force. You proceed from the notion that only Russia needs this, and you do not consider the desire of the other side.
      2. NikolayN Offline NikolayN
        NikolayN (Nikolai) 28 December 2021 18: 29
        No, that's enough for me. I hope that all this will be paid for by Kazakhtan himself. Let him know ours!
        Kazakhstan is a part of the Russian Federation where in 36 a state was created, the name of which was not immediately invented. To include it in the Russian Federation as a region is one thing, but the union already existed. Even with Ukraine, the Belovezhskaya Agreements were signed, where the transition from the USSR to the CIS took place. And how did it end? The motivation that you write about is not very motivation for the union. The union should be mutually beneficial now and in the future. If such a benefit appears, they will be drawn to an alliance with us, and Ukraine will be the first, and Kazakhstan will be the second. We must look for this benefit and the key in the economy. It should be such that some Lithuania would never even have to kick us in his thoughts.
  5. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 22 December 2021 14: 26
    Not at all. Can not. Since the 90s, the US business has seized the largest oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan, discovered before 1980. Now Kazakhstan is the largest supplier of uranium to the United States. The deposits in fact belong to the "big brother". Late to drink Borjomi ....... Even China can no longer get through there .... But we can always put our head under an American missile with a Kazakh nuclear charge !!!

    Quote: NikolayN
    Why do we need them? With their problems.

    Do you think this is about their problems?
    1. Vitaly Ivanov_2 Offline Vitaly Ivanov_2
      Vitaly Ivanov_2 (Vitaly Ivanov) 23 December 2021 21: 38
      I will disappoint you. The largest supplier of unenriched uranium is Australia, enriched by Russia.
  6. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 22 December 2021 14: 56
    But is everything so hopeless, and can Moscow once again return the former Soviet republics to its orbit of influence?

    Maybe. Why not return to this picture, but with large coefficients, given that Russia has freed up resources to maintain the rest of the backbones?

    1. Vitaly Ivanov_2 Offline Vitaly Ivanov_2
      Vitaly Ivanov_2 (Vitaly Ivanov) 23 December 2021 21: 38
      This is a fake sign.
  7. The comment was deleted.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  8. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 22 December 2021 16: 16
    It is necessary to get rid of Kazakhstan harder, then it will join the coalition. It is so accepted here - then, like a beast, it will scream, it will cry somehow.
  9. Pilot Offline Pilot
    Pilot (Pilot) 23 December 2021 00: 11
    Kazy will sell in a conflict with amers immediately. And if they win, they will crawl with reservations and tears. Here they must be squeezed to the level of a collective farm with its chairman. And tough.
  10. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 23 December 2021 09: 36
    It is unlikely to join, but to sit on the neck of Russia, like Belarus, with pleasure.
  11. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 23 December 2021 21: 55
    Quote: Vitaly Ivanov_2
    This is a fake sign.

    I'm deeply into .... your opinion. Let's get yours. A digit can only be killed by a digit. And not a statement from the gateway.
  12. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 23 December 2021 22: 01
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    Reintegration in the post-Soviet space, creation of a single market, united Armed Forces, upholding the rights of the Russian-speaking minority in northern Kazakhstan, where after Nazarbayev it can really go bang, like in Donbass.
    Enough for you?

    In other words, to enter the financial competition, who will give more? Reintegration is too much. Independent, friendly, but not a freeloader, but a partner. But for this you need to go through a good crisis. Unfortunately, you can't do without a muzzle grater on asphalt, like Belarusian, Armenian and others. The best medicine for multi-vectoredness.
  13. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 24 December 2021 00: 19
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    Corruption is not synonymous with stupidity

    What's worse?
  14. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
    assault 2019 (assault 2019) 24 December 2021 17: 20
    Or maybe put the question differently?
    If the Kazakhs want independence and ensure the "Russian military roof", then they must fulfill all the requirements of Russia to pacify local "Natsiks", to give constitutional status to the Russian language - the second state language, to ensure equal rights for the Russian-speaking population in government, education, social security ...
    Russia will not just get involved in a war against China and kill thousands of its soldiers because of the vested interests of the shtetl beys ...
    It is easier for Russia to agree with China on the peaceful division of Kazakhstan and the annexation of the northern, primordially Russian territories inhabited in the majority by the Russian-speaking population back to Russia.
  15. Alexander K_2 Offline Alexander K_2
    Alexander K_2 (Alexander K) 25 December 2021 09: 16
    Kazakhstan is a Wise and Young country, where the interests of the country are put in the first place! And she will always put the interests of her Country at the forefront, but not the interests of the “elders” of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus to preserve their “bodies”
  16. Baltika3 Offline Baltika3
    Baltika3 (Baltika3) 5 January 2022 22: 49
    Can Kazakhstan join the union of Russia and Belarus

    Here can, say, the Lithuanians
    Latvians, different Estonians
    Russia as a mother
    Deep in the heart to perceive
    To make love big
    Of course they can - who is in the way

    (Prigov, 1983)