Russia's crafty allies


The past November was marked by a new military crisis in the post-Soviet space, namely, in the Syunik region, in which, as a result of fleeting battles, the Azerbaijani army advanced several kilometers deep into the territory of Armenia.


During the period of the highest armed exacerbation in political Armenia’s Telegram channels were filled with extremely persistent, and sometimes insulting statements about the Russian Federation with calls for the latter to intervene by force of arms.

Yes, formally, Russia really should come to the aid of a CSTO ally. After all, it was not about Nagorno-Karabakh, which Moscow has always considered a part of Azerbaijan, but about the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia.

However, upon closer examination, a number of questions arise, to which the Armenian side has no answers, but they should have been given at least to clarify uncomfortable suspicions.

Obviously, this November was not a full-scale invasion, but a border conflict. No matter how weak Armenia may be considered, this state has its own army, which has the capabilities sufficient to defeat a local invasion.

Yes, some experts directly said that in the fall of 2020 no army of Nagorno-Karabakh never existed, and it was the armed forces of Armenia that lost the war. Nevertheless, Yerevan has unused resources. For example, its own aviation. She did not participate in the war either last year or this.

If Armenia believes that its territory has been attacked, then it has not only the unequivocal right to self-defense, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, but also the obligation to do so in accordance with the country's constitution, and specifically Article 8.2, which states that:

The Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia ensure the security, protection and territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia, the inviolability of its borders.

In addition, there are unwritten rules in the world that have been established for centuries. For example, a junior ally turns to a patron for help in an attack only if this junior is himself ready to fight for his land.

Obviously, the Russian contingent in Armenia will defend this country if border skirmishes one day escalate into a full-scale invasion. However, this is still unlikely.


Having regained control over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan is closely engaged in the restoration of infrastructure in the region, about which local television reports non-stop almost every day. Baku no longer needs a new big war. He needs peace - on the most convenient conditions for himself. Moreover, he does not need a war with Russia, which is far from the herbivorous country that it was in 2008 or 2014.

Speaking detachedly, Armenia is a geographic dead end for Russia - there are not even common borders with it. Economically, Azerbaijan is much more important. It is through this republic that the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) runs, in which Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan itself have already invested many billions and continue to do so. Although the drift of Baku towards pan-Turkism and "Turan" alarms Russian political scientists, it has not yet significantly spoiled relations with the Russian Federation.

There is no doubt that if Russia directly intervened in the November crisis in Syunik, relations with Azerbaijan would become much worse. The INSTC corridor project would have been scrapped for years to come.

Who would benefit from this? Small but proud Armenia, tied to itself a powerful, but not too far-sighted patron. Would Russia have received any special gratitude or loyalty from the Armenians for this? The question is rhetorical.

Also, the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan is beneficial to the numerous "friends" of the Russian Federation from all over Eurasia, both eastern and western. Obviously, with the transition to "green energy", the shortfall in revenues from oil and gas will have to be compensated for.

The North-South Corridor should be one such replacement. Should Russia trade the bare hills in the Transcaucasus for one of the most important international projects of the decade, comparable in importance to Nord Stream 2? The question is again rhetorical with an obvious answer.

After the collapse of the USSR, modern Russia found itself in fact in a geographic blockade, overcoming which enormous resources were spent. For example, in order to get away from dependence on the Baltic ports (Soviet resources and built), the Ust-Luga complex was erected in the Baltic. It also makes no sense to repeat the epic with underwater gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine.

The North-South transport corridor is a project of the same order. That is, a way to get out of continental isolation, into which the modern Russian Federation was driven by the collapse of the Soviet Union.


While the Kremlin’s foreign policy after the Crimean success in the spring of 2014 does not look particularly brilliant, this November the Russian authorities acted wisely, not succumbing to an obvious provocation.

There is another suspicious moment in this light. At the Summit for Democracy held by the United States in December, Armenia is among the selected invited states. And all would be fine, but there are countries that seem to be much closer to Washington, but have not seen the cherished invitation.

Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, flew past the summit, for example. Or Egypt, the most important US ally in the Middle East, the owner of the Suez Canal. Or the Arabian monarchy of Bahrain, located on the islands in the Persian Gulf, which hosts the entire headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and all the control structures of the Central Command.

None of these countries received an invitation. And Armenia, the formal partner of the Russian Federation, received it. It is a fact.

All of the above, taken together, of course, does not mean that the CSTO partner is trying to openly frame the Russians by driving the ally into an unfavorable geopolitical structure. The strange military indecision of the Armenian top leadership may have other motives. For example, a clear awareness of the real technical and moral state of their own armed forces. Which, translated into human language, means "there is no one and nothing to fight with." By the way, this idea has been repeatedly voiced in analytical articles by Russian military experts.

However, if the CSTO partner's army is really in a sky-ready state, then the question arises of what the local government has been doing for a whole year.

In fact, this is not about Armenia. Or rather, not only about her. The most important resource in any military alliance is honesty. Lack of trust among allies has historically led to the collapse of many military campaigns. It is important to be sure that the ally does not run away and stab you in the back.

Within the CSTO, Russia has, shall we say, very specific allies. These are Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which met last spring in a border conflict with dozens of dead. This is Kazakhstan, news from which they rarely go without the word “de-Russification”, and traditionally “multi-vector” Minsk with its permanent ruler.

How much you can count on such allies, let each reader decide for himself. Moscow will have no other partners with such diplomacy.
  • Author:
  • Used photographs: Site of the President of the Russian Federation, ADY Corporation
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 16 December 2021 20: 51
    -13
    Also, the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan is beneficial to the numerous "friends" of the Russian Federation from all over Eurasia, both eastern and western.

    - I will say quite definitely ... - And Russia would benefit from a conflict with Azerbaijan ... - Yes, that's right ...
    - Moreover, Russia had a very "convenient opportunity": after a Russian military helicopter was shot down (and Russian pilots were killed) over the territory of Armenia, it was to launch a missile attack on military airfields in Azerbaijan and other military facilities (radar stations, identified artillery batteries and rocket launchers, etc.); who were directly close to the line of clashes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis ... - Moreover - Russia was simply obliged to deliver this blow - it should have been done in order to secure the Russian contingent in Armenia ... - And no one would have condemned Russia for this ... - Everything would be "honest" ... - And so would (in a similar case) the United States, Britain, France, Israel, and so on ...
    - There is a war; a blow is being struck against the Russian military - the pilots are killed, the equipment is destroyed ... - Russia was simply obliged to defend itself and deliver a one-time retaliatory strike ... - Nobody says that Russia should have sent its troops and got involved in this mess; but Russia should have dealt a blow ... - Yes, there would be a small conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan; but it would be quickly hushed up ... - as a "misunderstanding" ...
    - Moreover, it would serve as a very good guideline for Turkey that it should not be so "shamelessly staring" at the Caspian Sea and "making inclinations" about this ... you can "get very much on bail" ... - Yes, and for Azerbaijan - this would serve as a certain lesson ... - not to "rely too much" on Turkey - and to be more "careful" and "prudent" in their actions in relation to Russia ...
    - That is why I personally write that "then a temporary conflict with Azerbaijan would be beneficial for Russia" ...
    - And this conflict would only play in Russia's favor ...
    1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 17 December 2021 04: 39
      +6
      -I, I, I, I, I personally ...
      Gorenina, this is a symptom!
  2. Kim Rum Eun Offline Kim Rum Eun
    Kim Rum Eun (Kim Rum Yn) 16 December 2021 20: 58
    +1
    That is, a way to get out of continental isolation, into which the modern Russian Federation was driven by the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The modern Russian Federation was driven into "continental isolation" not by the collapse of the Soviet Union, but by something else, which the author casually mentioned. And what kind of isolation is that? - there are many Chinese, Mongolian and Korean "brothers".
  3. greenchelman Offline greenchelman
    greenchelman (Grigory Tarasenko) 16 December 2021 21: 08
    +3
    Moreover, he does not need a war with Russia, which is far from the herbivorous country that it was in 2008 or 2014.

    Well, for that matter, please clarify to what extent, in your opinion, Russia has since ceased to be a herbivorous country, or has become a plate-eating country, or something like that, and what is generally meant by your wording.
    1. Kim Rum Eun Offline Kim Rum Eun
      Kim Rum Eun (Kim Rum Yn) 17 December 2021 07: 15
      +2
      ... or became plаpoisonous or something like that ...

      Russia has become "something like that."
      Well, she doesn't eat mountain plateaus lol

      SubОFAVORITE, carnivore, carnivore; carnivorous, carnivorous, carnivorous.
      1.Full only Predatory, feeding on the meat of other animals (about the animal; zool.).
      || The same as insectivorous (about a plant; bot.).
      2. transfer. Lowly sensual; voluptuous cruel (book). Carnivorous smile. Carnivorous (adv.) Looked at his victim.
    2. tulip Offline tulip
      tulip 17 December 2021 09: 10
      +1
      what stupid questions you have - just look at the western media with their hysteria about Russia, the Russian army and the upcoming aggression against the whole world - and you will immediately have no doubts that Russia has become carnivorous)))
  4. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 16 December 2021 21: 38
    +6
    Yes, formally, Russia really should come to the aid of an ally in the CSTO. After all, it was not about Nagorno-Karabakh, which Moscow has always considered a part of Azerbaijan, but about the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia.

    The Armed Forces of Azerbaijan did not enter the territory of Armenia.
    Armenia did not fight with Azerbaijan.
    Russia had no reason to help its CSTO ally.

    Yes, some experts directly said that in the fall of 2020 no army of Nagorno-Karabakh never existed, and it was the armed forces of Armenia that lost the war.

    The Armenian Armed Forces lost the war on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenia has never recognized as its territory.
    The Armenian leadership has outplayed itself.
    In fact, Azerbaijan destroyed the Armenian armed formations, which are not clear with what status on foreign territory.

    The CSTO cannot be pulled sideways here.
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 16 December 2021 23: 38
    -2
    1. There will be no peace without the exchange of the Lachin corridor for the Zangezun corridor.
    2. The drift of Baku towards pan-Turkism and "Turan" threatens with the actual deprivation of Azerbaijan's state sovereignty, to which the ruling class of Azerbaijan will never agree in the foreseeable future, but will try to strengthen its positions in it.
    3. The criterion for choosing participants in the summit of democracies is not “democracy”, but commitment to the West and its money.
    The fate of Armenia and Mongolia are islands of opposition to the programs of the PRC and the Russian Federation (SCO, EAEU, etc.) and incitement of contradictions.
    The first summit should create a "crowd" and fulfilled its task, 110 state formations are half of the world.
    The second summit is organizational, after which several dozen more state institutions will join the new organization.
    The third - will raise the question of the effectiveness of the UN and its replacement by a newly created organization.
    Ultimately, transnational corporations will buy almost the whole world, with the exception of a few rogue countries, having driven them into an unprofitable geopolitical structure will force them to submit to the Sshasovites, who thus not only eliminate the threat of their hegemony, but also take over the whole world.
    The reaction to the summit of democracies of the "rogue countries" is reduced to boltology about the split of the world, we are waiting for concrete and coordinated actions to preserve the UN
  6. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 17 December 2021 00: 24
    +4
    Pashinyan is a Sor's puppet, so the Russian Federation handed over the ar to be eaten by the Azerbaijanis
  7. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 17 December 2021 04: 59
    -2
    A lot of questions arise, many questions have been posed in the article, but there are no answers to them. There are some phrases about herbivorousness and economic benefits. Nothing has been written about Serbia, China, Venezuela, Algeria and the hedgehog with them - are they also "allies"? And who can be considered an ally in peacetime?
    1. Kim Rum Eun Offline Kim Rum Eun
      Kim Rum Eun (Kim Rum Yn) 17 December 2021 05: 31
      +1
      And who can be considered an ally in peacetime?

      It's a strange question: Russia's western borders are covered by Russia's most important ally, who has been ruled by one mustachioed comrade-master with a comb for 27 years.
      So count it.
  8. Pink 123 Floyd 328 (Pink Floyd) 17 December 2021 08: 00
    0
    If the Armenians, now with anguish posing as Russian patriots, more than any Russian, - all these Simonyans, Keosayans, Migranians, Karen Shakhnazarovs, a whole millionaire minister Lavrov, all these "Russians" from the 200 Forbes list, like that -

    Sergey Galitsky (Harutyunyan), the founder and co-owner (until 2018) of the largest retail chain Magnit, is ranked 40 with a fortune of $ 3.5 billion.
    The founder of the Tashir group of companies Samvel Karapetyan, who was ranked 2020th in 39, is 2021th in 46. His fortune is $ 3.3 billion.
    For the first time, Artem Khachatryan, co-owner of the Fix Price chain of fixed-price stores, who became a billionaire after the sale of the retailer's shares, was included in the list. He is in 49th place with a fortune of $ 3.1 billion.
    In 73rd place is the billionaire of Armenian origin Andrei Andreev (Ogandzhanyants) - the founder of the Internet dating service Badoo, he has $ 1.9 billion.
    Founder and owner of SKARTEL, as well as the holder of Yota shares, Albert Avdolyan, is in 115th place. His fortune is $ 1 billion.
    Right behind him is the philanthropist and entrepreneur Ruben Vardanyan. His fortune is also estimated at $ 1 billion.
    Brothers Nikolay and Sergey Sarkisov - owners and chairmen of the board of directors of RESO-Garantia - occupy 141 and 142 places in the list, respectively. The fortune of each of the brothers is estimated at $ 850 million.
    Russian entrepreneur of Armenian origin, founder and member of the board of directors of ABBYY group of companies, co-founder of iiko, Findo and Ayb Foundation David Yan is ranked 174th. His fortune is estimated at $ 700 million.
    - they will fold 10% of their fortune, it will be possible to make an army more abruptly than the Russian one.
    And then Armenia will not need military allies.

    But, this is unlikely. We got used to parasitizing and mimicking for generations on the Russian state, under the tsar, under the communists, under Putin. No wonder they are called “Jews” of the Caucasus. And it is not known who is cunning ... e.
    1. tulip Offline tulip
      tulip 17 December 2021 09: 08
      +1
      The Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia is also not made with a finger, and there are also billionaires there)))
    2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 18 December 2021 07: 13
      -2
      If the Armenians, now with anguish posing as Russian patriots, bigger than any Russian, are all these Simonyans, Keosayans, Migranians, Karen Shakhnazarovs, a whole millionaire minister Lavrov,

      - I fully agree with your comment ...
      - And further :
      - It is worth watching today the program "Clever and Clever" (this is a kind of All-Russian Humanitarian Television Olympiad, which is a TV version of the MGIMO admission competition) ... - it is simply amazing -
      - JUST AMAZING that in every competition there is always another one - "karen", "tigran", "armen" and so on (I will not give names) !!!
      - Where do they come from !!! ??? - And how do they get there !!! ???
      - Damn, Russia is great - but such an abundance of "such representatives" is simply amazing !!! - Simply - they climb, climb and climb !!!
      - And what is typical - all those who have made it to the competition "for admission without exams to MGIMO" - absolutely ... absolutely ... absolutely - do not differ in knowledge in order to successfully participate in this competition ... - And at least that is good, that most of them simply fly out of this competition - because of ignorance of the subject ... - But it's all the same - they took someone else's place even in this competition; someone was ousted; someone because of them did not get to this competition !!! - And it is not necessary that only young people of Russian nationality did not get there - there are many other peoples in Russia ... - But for some reason, it is the Armenians who predominate !!!
      - And this "paradox" is becoming more and more tragic !!!
  9. tulip Offline tulip
    tulip 17 December 2021 09: 19
    +1
    Armenia is really doing some incomprehensible things ... The loss of Karabakh is entirely Armenia's fault. For many years Azerbadzhan trained the army, pumped it up with weapons, while the Armenians rested on the laurels of the last war and did nothing for defense. I don't know - were they hoping for their own strength or was it a betrayal? Rather, betrayal, judging by the subsequent Armenian steps. Indeed, in fact, Pashinyan simply surrendered Karabakh and surrenders other territories further. What do the Armenians hope for? To the west? Or are all of Armenia going to move to other countries? In my opinion, Armenians are more warriors than Azerbaijanis - this has been shown by the practice of previous wars - but here they are simply blown away, it is not clear why
  10. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 December 2021 10: 15
    -1
    right. All sorts of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Venezuela, Iran, Syria and Turkey are strange partners, friends and allies.

    For some reason, the liberals have been talking about this for a long time.
  11. viktortarianik Offline viktortarianik
    viktortarianik (Victor) 17 December 2021 10: 19
    0
    It is possible that the people of Armenia are themselves an ally. But it is necessary to separate the people from their government, which is elected by this very people. For an incomprehensible reason for me, very often a person believes the words and does not see the deeds that the candidates for power are doing, wants to see only the good and turns a blind eye to the unpleasant. An example of this is Ukraine. So the current government of Armenia is not just not an ally, but an enemy disguised as an ally. After all, this is how Ukraine behaved since the acquisition of "independence".
  12. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 18 December 2021 11: 01
    0
    The best medicine for multi-vector thinking is asphalt, on which neighbors rub their faces. Tested on the old man and on the Armenian. Old man, apparently, understood earlier. It will come to the Armenian, most certainly. The sooner the better. Otherwise, nothing will remain of the muzzle.

  13. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 18 December 2021 11: 05
    0
    Quote: viktortarianik
    It is possible that the people of Armenia are themselves an ally. But it is necessary to separate the people from their government, which is elected by this very people. For an incomprehensible reason for me, very often a person believes the words and does not see the deeds that the candidates for power are doing, wants to see only the good and turns a blind eye to the unpleasant. An example of this is Ukraine. So the current government of Armenia is not just not an ally, but an enemy disguised as an ally. After all, this is how Ukraine behaved since the acquisition of "independence".

    This task is to separate, choose, (moreover, repeatedly) - the work of the drowning themselves. The people are worthy of the villains elected to the government. This means that they will all sip murtsovka. Look at the picture in my previous post. Where is Pashinyan, a stretching banner with anti-Russian attacks? Accustomed to eat without giving the country. Let Turkey feed them now. She has already fed, this is well known in history.