Why Russia's Red Lines Policy Doesn't Work

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The colder it gets, the hotter the situation around Ukraine. Western journalists are drawing maps with might and main with scenarios of a military invasion of Russian troops, while in Moscow they say something about "red lines" that cannot be crossed by the United States and NATO as a whole. It is precisely about the "red lines" that I would like to talk in more detail.

President Vladimir Putin said some time ago that he considered the "red line" in relations with the United States to further approach the military infrastructure of the NATO bloc to the Russian borders, as well as the deployment of strike weapons in Ukraine, including hypersonic ones (it turns out that not only we can the alliance to frighten with the irresistible existing air defense / missile defense "hypersound"). To this, his American colleague Joe Biden stated the following:



I do not recognize anyone's red line.

So, short and clear. Why is the Russian diplomacy of the "red lines" not working? Let's figure it out.

First of all, you need to start by defining:

"Red line" or "red line" (from the English red line), which cannot be "crossed" - this is policy designation of the limit of patience of one of the parties, a position in violation of which "safety is no longer guaranteed."

Immediately, we note that the definition itself contains the weakness of this approach:

At first, he de facto legitimizes any behavior of the opponent, which does not affect this "red line", that is, he unties his hands.

Secondly, there is no concretization of response actions in case of violation, transition of the "red line". What exactly will the Kremlin do, declaring that it is unacceptable to deploy American hypersonic weapons in Ukraine, if the Pentagon does place them there? An immediate nuclear strike on Washington? Capture Kiev? Give the United States a discount on Russian fuel oil and diesel fuel? Just offended? What exactly and who should be afraid of?

Sorry, of course, but if you are going to scare the United States and its vassals in Europe, then you have to answer harshly and consistently, and we have problems with this. The last time Russia came out almost convincingly was in 2008. In response to the Georgian aggression against our peacekeepers, the RF Armed Forces, albeit with considerable difficulties, won a victory and almost reached Tbilisi, stopping only 40 kilometers from the capital. True, after this all the results of the military victory were at once crossed out when the Russian troops were ordered to return back. And now Georgia is one of the most anti-Russian countries in the post-Soviet space and will undoubtedly join the western NATO bloc.

How many conceivable and inconceivable “red lines” have already been crossed in Ukraine is simply scary to remember. How could you calmly watch and not react when the Nazi scum burned people alive in Odessa on May 2, 2014, and on Victory Day they crushed people with tanks in Mariupol? How many Russian people, adults and children, were killed during the shelling of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of peaceful cities and towns in Donbass? President Putin said something about the fact that the Russian army would stand behind the backs of women and children:

And let one of the servicemen try to shoot at their own people, behind whom we will stand behind, not in front, but behind. Let them try to shoot women and children! And I will look at those who will issue such an order in Ukraine.

So they have been standing for the eighth year not in front, but behind. We have "multi-way". And the Ukrainian servicemen are still shooting. To be honest, all these gatherings of Russian troops to the border of Ukraine, both spring and autumn, cause, in the main, dull irritation. With a 99% probability no "invasion" and "capture of two-thirds of the territory" will occur. And not because we allegedly do not need Ukraine, but for completely different reasons.

Unfortunately, such a vague and soft-spoken approach by the Kremlin can have very serious consequences. The fact is that our "Western and Eastern partners" are studying the style of President Putin's foreign policy and, undoubtedly, have long ago drawn up a psychological portrait of our Supreme Commander and identified the "corridors" within which he makes his decisions. By the way, the well-known American expert Paul Roberts, one of the most adequate foreign analysts, recently wrote about this, making it clear that numerous mistakes of the Russian president could lead to a big war. And, alas, it really is.

How many “red lines” have already crossed our “partners”? The Turks shot down a Russian bomber, and now we will build two more new nuclear power plants for them. The Americans bombed the Wagnerites in the desert near Hisham, and we sell them fuel oil and diesel fuel. The Azerbaijani army shot down a Russian helicopter, and we will certainly give them a positive conclusion of the environmental impact assessment for the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. It's even unpleasant to talk about the vicissitudes of inconsistent domestic policy in the Ukrainian direction. Let's honestly admit: no one is particularly afraid of the indistinct Russian "red lines".

And it's very bad. What, for example, can prevent Japan from seizing the Kuril Islands? Only the fear of getting a nuclear strike on its territory, since the Russian Pacific Fleet will not be able to cope with the task. But will the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation be given such a radical order that will irrevocably divide the history of our country into "Before" and "After"? Will Moscow start a nuclear war with NATO if it takes economic blockade of the Kaliningrad region? Will President Putin give the order to launch an ICBM strike on Washington or send troops into Ukraine if American hypersonic missiles are deployed there?

None of this is evident from the "red lines" announced by the Kremlin, so everyone can interpret them in their own way. Hooray patriots can believe that at any moment we are ready to "glaze" the United States and its vassals. But President Biden, apparently, for some reason, this prospect is not particularly impressive, and the decision to admit Ukraine to the NATO bloc and deploy nuclear and hypersonic weapons there will be made by him. The vagueness of Russian foreign policy, which can be covered up with all sorts of "cunning plans", conceals the preconditions for really big problems for ourselves.

Can anything be changed before it's too late? It is possible, but for this you need to forget about the "multi-pass" and show consistency and rigidity, returning to the origins, where it all began. If the Ukrainian problem is solved here and now once and for all, it will save us from much more serious conflicts with Japan and the NATO bloc. But with a probability of 99%, we will not do anything.
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  1. 0
    7 December 2021 15: 59
    Why Russia's Red Lines Policy Doesn't Work

    - Well - my plus to the author of the article ...
    - As for the notorious "red line"; then the mythical "red line" is not a red parachute line that actually performs a certain function ...
    - Actually, even if our guarantor has some kind of "tricky move" in stock, then this "tricky move" is the very eloquence about some kind of "red lines" ... - go find them - these " red lines "- after all, everything bears the character of allegoricality and these" red lines "do not carry any specific and objective load ... - So - these" red lines "can be attributed to a very, very cunning undertaking ...
    - My plus to the author ...
  2. -1
    7 December 2021 17: 12
    No diplomacy works anymore, and this must be understood. As far as Russia is concerned, there is no harshness, it’s enough to make excuses, to prove something to “them”. A reference to 2008. As we can see, the presidents have different views on serious situations.
    1. -3
      7 December 2021 20: 19
      There is nothing to provide rigidity. ODK, UAC, OSK, Rostec will do it.
  3. 0
    7 December 2021 17: 57
    Sober, balanced article.
    1. -1
      8 December 2021 17: 11
      you also admire Latin. you are from another world with her wassat
      Now I associate you with her left hand
      you also need to assign a side number to the meteorite

      It's okay that you approved Marzhetsky's article. This is natural) Khakhly, too, I think his articles are added - he gives them hope wassat

      Putin draws red lines right on the maps - then I buy a new atlas of the world with a repainted peninsula - and he started with gabunostan - they still burn without 30% of the territory. Apparently, soon it will be necessary to update again)

      But it's useless for the characters to explain anything to you. You have more than 700 comments in a month - and this one has three articles a day)

      Kind of like in the case

      1. -2
        8 December 2021 20: 38
        Putin draws red lines right on the maps - then I buy a new atlas of the world with a repainted peninsula - and he started with gabunostan - they still burn without 30% of the territory. Apparently, soon it will be necessary to update again)

        He can draw even in purple stripes. He has no strength, neither economic nor military. The train left, and friends dismantled the rails. And Latynina just comments on what is happening. There are no such journalists in the opposite pool.
  4. +2
    7 December 2021 18: 15
    Everything is correct. Thanks to the author
  5. +1
    7 December 2021 21: 17
    Putin will shrug his shoulders ... instead of driving amers from our continent
  6. +1
    7 December 2021 22: 02
    How many conceivable and inconceivable “red lines” have already been crossed in Ukraine is simply scary to remember.

    Authors and commentators often confuse their personal "red lines" in articles and comments with the President's Red Lines.
    1. +2
      8 December 2021 08: 08
      Straight from the Capital Letter and so significant.
      Can you decipher what it means specifically? What will the President do if the United States places hypersonic weapons in Ukraine, targeting them at Russia? Let's say 3 specific reciprocal steps.
      1. +1
        8 December 2021 08: 56
        The network and the media are full of "experts" who allegedly telepathically direct their thoughts to shoot Putin, Shoigu, and others.
        "Know" what they are thinking now, have planned earlier and are planning in the future
        So ask them.

        I don't follow what they just say.
        One can only roughly estimate where the President has these Lines. According to the situations described by you.

        Capitalism is in the yard. Business. Money. And very large
        1. +1
          8 December 2021 08: 58
          So this is the notorious planning smile
          The problem is that Putin never once posed the question bluntly, indicating specific reciprocal steps. For example: if the United States puts missiles in Ukraine, Russia will launch a nuclear strike on Washington. Point.
          1. 0
            8 December 2021 09: 04
            What an extreme you are. With such toughness, everyone was shot at each other every year. Anything at hand.

            This is the same analytic. You can't say for sure - so as not to limit yourself to maneuver / rum
            1. 0
              8 December 2021 10: 34
              You are not in a vacuum.
              While you are so dishonored, your environment weighs yourself and your possibilities.
              If the analysis does not satisfy it, it becomes a hostile environment, counting on its share of your pie. With all that it implies
            2. -2
              8 December 2021 15: 31
              Vice versa. If the question had been put bluntly and the United States knew for sure that the hand would not flinch, the planet would have been calmer.
              They just know that Putin will never use nuclear weapons. Is it only against Voronezh ... smile
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              2. 0
                8 December 2021 17: 56
                Yes, truth? Let’s remember who’s hand didn’t flinch there?
                Hitler, Genghis Khan, Timur, Savonarola ... and others ..
                There was blood ...

                And quieter ... "wage small victorious wars away from yourself" - it was known even to the pharaohs. Yusa does just that.
                Empire and capital cannot but expand ... Before the United States, England, Russia, Turkey, Spain, the Empire of the Franks, Roman and Chinese fought eternal wars ...

                And Voronezh and Ufa are still alive ...
                1. 0
                  9 December 2021 08: 52
                  Yes, truth? Let’s remember who’s hand didn’t flinch there?
                  Hitler, Genghis Khan, Timur, Savonarola ... and others ..
                  There was blood ...

                  You are replacing the topic of conversation.
                  1. +1
                    9 December 2021 10: 49
                    No - these are just examples of too "decisive".

                    The media wrote that before our plane, the Turks shot down amerovsky helicopter by mistake. 7 or 6 people were killed.

                    Red line?
                    In our road accident, much more die per day, no one stutters about red lines ...
                    1. 0
                      10 December 2021 08: 11
                      Once again, you are substituting concepts.
                      I'm talking about protecting Russia's national interests by drawing "red lines" and voicing unambiguous sanctions for crossing them. Until the declaration of war. This is their meaning.
                      Declaration of war is an adequate response to the deployment of American nuclear weapons and hypersonic nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which will reach Moscow in a few minutes and cannot be intercepted. This is an act of aggression.
                      You breed demagoguery, dragging Genghis Khan and even more so Hitler here. Are you quite cuckoo or what?
                      1. 0
                        10 December 2021 09: 58
                        The latter is, alas, you.
                        Since the

                        response to the deployment in Ukraine of American nuclear weapons and hypersonic

                        is Putin

                        How many conceivable and inconceivable “red lines” have already been crossed in Ukraine is simply scary to remember.

                        - these are the local "lines" of the Media

                        Moreover, everyone comes up with their own, and many at the end wrote pathetically that Russia (it is implied, and Putin) should defend his personal, just described red line. (for example, remember the 33 heroes? Pee and forget)

                        And it is said clearly: “We must rejoice” (and so on) - about the growing trade with Ukraine, (which means the possible improvement of the economy, money and “non-deterioration” of relations).
                        Allegedly, and in the 21st year, trade increased ...
  7. +1
    7 December 2021 22: 08
    if everything goes according to the negative scenario, then Russia still has a trump card up its sleeve. Russia may hint at withdrawing from START III and plans to significantly increase the number of ICBMs and warheads. Russia may also hint that it intends to fend off NATO military threats by developing and modernizing ultra-small nuclear charges and placing them on hypersonic carriers. Doctrine can be changed by lowering the threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. To hint that Russia is ready to start a new nuclear arms race, at the same time to develop the tactics of using tactical nuclear weapons in combined arms operations. This is a nightmare for Europe and for the United States too, given how much money they have to spend on this race against Russia, which already has modern media ... the money the United States needs to contain China. This race will affect both space and missile defense. This means that anti-satellite capabilities will also be built up. A lot of money for everyone, but for the United States, besides this, it is also necessary to build a fleet against China ...
    Such an approach could sober up the Europeans, who do not need an American crusade against Russia. Well, the threshold is lower, of course, our expensive oil and gas + nuclear fuel. Perhaps more grain, fertilizers. A ban on the export of these items to countries supporting the "nuclear sanctions" of the State Department will significantly change a lot. It is impossible to replace these resources with green energy right now. In a year like this, 2035 will already be possible, and it will be more difficult for Russia there.
    The United States is ready for all this, it has nothing to lose. They just need a global crisis and exacerbations to weave out of their apparent financial collapse. But Europe, Western Europe, does not need it at all. And it is they who can prevent the US scenario if they can adequately assess the consequences.
    1. +1
      8 December 2021 08: 03
      To hint that Russia is ready to start a new nuclear arms race, at the same time to develop the tactics of using tactical nuclear weapons in combined arms operations. This is a real nightmare for Europe and for the United States too, given how much money they have to spend on this race against Russia, which already has modern media.

      We simply don’t have enough money for a real arms race. And there are big problems with personnel and material and technical base. We won't pull it out, that's why we kind of shy away from participating in it.
      1. +1
        8 December 2021 09: 23
        Therefore, it is urgent to build at least three machine-tool factories, which can increase the GDP of the Russian Federation by 1%. And it is desirable to build in the Russian part of the Russian Federation, and not in the autonomous republics. There is experience in the separation of Kharkov, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, etc. factories from the metropolis ...
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  8. 0
    8 December 2021 13: 35
    The article is great! The questions are correct, not in the forehead, but in the eye. The hucksters have a "wrong system" education to answer such questions.
  9. +2
    9 December 2021 00: 48
    Why why ...
    Because for the intersection of real red lines they hit in the face, and do not express "concern" and "regret" ...
  10. 0
    15 December 2021 11: 55
    Marzhetsky priest Gapon and a provocateur with such articles from the category: if only I were Putin.
    Putin is a strong and experienced politician, do not worry about him, he is doing everything right, you will have warmth at home and whatever you can eat. Everything will be fine.
  11. 0
    19 December 2021 16: 55
    When behind the statements about the "red lines" there is no powerful economy, full of subjectivity in its actions without regard to "political correctness", nor the patriotic elite (and not the one that deposits money abroad, takes out their families there and has several citizenships), then all these statements are idle talk. Well, I'm not even talking about the background of the courtyard gopniks who, by a misunderstanding, became the power in Russia ...
  12. 0
    1 January 2022 22: 39
    Because we are alone and the ruble is not a reserve currency.
  13. 0
    2 January 2022 17: 57
    Draw at least red, even blue lines, our shobla has families, children, lovers, castles, houses and other yachts and planes, clubs. looted billions, they are citizens
    other countries, the QUESTION, who will give the command to shoot, at whom and where, laughter and only, sometimes it even takes a shock ...
  14. -1
    15 January 2022 23: 02
    and I would choke
  15. 0
    31 January 2022 05: 22
    hug a megaton with a pair and the "red lines" will quickly and cheerfully draw by themselves;)