Loss of Donbass, Odessa and Nikolaev: Russia invites the West to come to an agreement in an amicable way


Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers and powerful armored forces on the Ukrainian border are forcing more and more politicians in the West to publicly ask the question - is Europe threatened by the danger of a new, much larger-scale war? According to the experts of the Polish portal Onet, such a scenario is possible. At the same time, it is also very likely that Moscow is thus forcing Europe to sign a geostrategic agreement that will reformat the security of the Old World.


Russian foreign policy has several features that make it effective, and from a purely professional point of view, it is respected even in some Western countries. First, the Kremlin is extremely consistent and has pursued one foreign policy course for many years. Second, the Russians have one of the most effective foreign intelligence services in the world and a highly professional diplomatic service. Third, Moscow is aware of its real potential, i.e. the Kremlin clearly understands the importance of Russia in the international arena. At the same time, sometimes Russians play masterfully, going beyond their real capabilities.

One of the most important elements of Russia's foreign policy is its right to influence in the post-Soviet space, with the exception, perhaps, of the Baltic countries. Here Moscow has privileged interests and does not want the presence of Western forces. In this strategy, the Ukrainian state stands apart. For many years, Moscow has not been able to subjugate Kiev to the extent that it would like. The Russians were well aware that they would never again be able to fully control this "fragment of the USSR", so the main goal of the Kremlin was not to regain power over Ukraine, but only to prevent the West from "conquering" it. In a sense, it succeeded, because today Ukraine has no immediate prospects for joining either the EU or NATO.

Since the beginning of the conflict in 2014, there have been dramatic changes in Kiev's foreign policy. Years later, the Kremlin realized that despite the lack of prospects for Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO, the integration of the Ukrainian state with the West is in full swing. As a result, the Kremlin came to the conclusion that Kiev is still slipping from Moscow's hands, after which the Russians had no choice but to raise the stakes.

Russian troops on the Ukrainian border are not a method of pressure on Kiev, but an attempt to negotiate with the West on the future status of Ukraine. This thesis was confirmed by Vladimir Putin himself, saying the other day that Moscow expects from the NATO countries "guarantees that the Alliance will not expand to the east." In other words, Putin needs legal assurances that Ukraine will under no circumstances become a member of the North Atlantic military bloc. In fact, the Kremlin is inviting the West to sign a European security treaty, which would in fact mean dividing spheres of influence on the continent.

At the moment, everything indicates that the likelihood of such an agreement between the West and Russia is small. On the other hand, however, it should be remembered that Russian diplomacy has a unique talent for offering very general, far-reaching formulations that sound very attractive in the ears of some Western politicians. It is possible that in Europe, tired of the new "cold war", there will be countries ready to kindly accept any proposals from Russia. For example, it can be France and Germany.

One of the ways to work out a security treaty in Europe is the "Finlandization" model. The term originates from Finland's status during the Cold War. Although the country was not part of the Soviet sphere of influence, its sovereignty was limited by the inability to join Western structures, that is, Helsinki remained politically neutral until 1995, when the state became a member of the European Union.

It would seem that "Finlandization", or in other words, an agreement between the West and Russia on the neutral status of Ukraine and Belarus, could be a perfectly reasonable decision from the point of view of the interests of the EU and the United States. However, no one in Moscow proposes the neutrality of Minsk, it is only about the further status of Kiev. Belarus today is a zone of Moscow's exclusive influence - it is Russia's closest military ally and ideological follower. Proceeding from this, Belarus under no circumstances can become a bargaining chip in the confrontation over Ukraine.

The inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, even in the distant future, poses for Russia, if not an existential threat, then at least a significant reformatting of the security conditions on the continent. It is not in vain that Vladimir Putin constantly points out that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the "yet unrecognized" republics of Donbass will be the end for the Ukrainian statehood. These warnings from the Russian leader can also be projected on Kiev's desire to join the ranks of the North Atlantic Alliance. And if the first only leads to the loss of the eastern part of the country, which, most likely, will become part of Russia, then NATO membership creates a risk for Ukraine to remain without the southern regions - Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson, because it will become paramount for Moscow to deprive Kiev of access to sea, thereby cutting off the possibility of the emergence of US naval bases literally a couple of tens of kilometers from the coast of Crimea.
37 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 7 December 2021 10: 24
    +19
    And why does the Russian Federation refuse to apply economic sanctions to Ukraine, helping fuel and lubricants and electricity (including welding machines for NATO bases in Ukraine) to build NATO bases in Ukraine and refuel the Ukrainian military equipment with its own fuel? Yes, even the APU dry rations are replenished with lard and other products. In the USSR it was called appeasement of the aggressor. Or maybe the authorities in Russia have different points of view on relations with Ukraine?
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 7 December 2021 13: 40
      +2
      Does the Russian Federation supply electricity to Ukraine? Belarus - yes, at exorbitant prices. And I haven’t heard about the Russian Federation yet.
      1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
        gunnerminer (gunner miner) 7 December 2021 20: 22
        -6
        Through the gray schemes of LDNR. Power lines are intact.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 7 December 2021 20: 23
          +1
          Where does infa come from?
          1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
            gunnerminer (gunner miner) 7 December 2021 21: 37
            -5
            From there. From the LDNR. Fighters from the police of the LDNR even wrote an open letter to Putin.
          2. tulip Offline tulip
            tulip 7 December 2021 21: 39
            +2
            and not through gray schemes. In 20, they definitely bought it.

            Ukrainian companies have resumed importing electricity from Russia for the first time since March 2020. According to the results of the daily auction on February 1, published on the Ukrenergo website, the ONK-GROUP company began to carry out the purchase. In addition, the access to the Russia-Ukraine intersection from February 1 to February 28 was purchased by the NEC and Stimeks companies. All of these companies are small traders and are owned by people unknown to the general public. However, the very fact of importing electricity from Russia has caused debate in society. In particular, the former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko believes that the purchase of electricity in Russia threatens national security.
      2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 8 December 2021 08: 59
        0
        And the Russian Federation and Belarus are the Union State!
    3. Sergey Ivanov_5 Offline Sergey Ivanov_5
      Sergey Ivanov_5 (Sergey Ivanov) 7 December 2021 22: 07
      +4
      Putin made and continues to make strategic mistakes in relation to Ukraine - having in his hands the legitimate president of Ukraine, to screw everything up; you have to be able to!
      1. Kapany3 Offline Kapany3
        Kapany3 8 December 2021 00: 48
        -1
        And why aren't you the president? Would fix all the mistakes one or two times
    4. sgrabik Offline sgrabik
      sgrabik (Sergei) 8 December 2021 10: 24
      0
      This is because some of our comers have completely lost their shores and for the sake of money are ready to ignore the national interests of Russia.
    5. Dima Offline Dima
      Dima (Dmitriy) 8 December 2021 12: 32
      0
      Nowadays it is called business. As Comrade Napoleon B. said, for a war you need three things, money, money and money. Ukrainians in any case will buy everything they need, so why don't we make money on it. In addition, a stable scheme is created, which can always be broken in the event of war.
    6. Akuzenka Offline Akuzenka
      Akuzenka (Alexander) 9 December 2021 11: 26
      0
      This is called capitalism. "Nothing personal just business". Now do you understand that the capitalists are digging graves for "their" people for money? They don't smell. When they show me a capitalist - a patriot, I immediately want to ask: why are you holding us for idiots ?! And they are holding it! And many believe that capadists can be patriots. They can, in words. On money - no.
  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 7 December 2021 10: 56
    +5
    So far, the United States and the West only spit on all the initiatives and wishes of the Kremlin. In response, he receives the Kremlin's regrets and anxiety that neither the United States nor the West bothers at all.
  3. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 7 December 2021 11: 43
    +9
    Some, by God, the Kremlin "chess players" fixated on "Ukraine's non-entry into NATO", probably because the Kiev Maydauns themselves are loudly shouting about their desire to "join" at any cost ?! wassat
    And why should NATO members, already completely amerodependent since 2014, should Ukraine "join" if "she is already easily accessible to them" and "agrees to everything", to any "sadomasochistic perversions" over herself, without any obligations, in all poses " using it, "Fashington gentlemen ?!
    NATO members openly speak about this unwillingness to have at least some obligations to their disenfranchised "concubine" (the ameromarionette "Maidan authorities", of course, "take offense", but humbly "swallow and wipe themselves off"!)!
    And NATO "listens and eats", militarily, "quietly", is mastering the Ukrainian territory!
    In fact, and not in the "declarations" -ARE ALREADY (completed construction-retrofitting, really "one of the most effective foreign intelligence services in the world" did not report this to the Kremlin ?! what ) on the Black Sea, near Nikolaev and Odessa, the US naval base and the WB !!! Also on the Sea of ​​Azov, in Berdyansk, one is being built, mainly for the British!
    And we in the "former Ukrainian SSR" well remember the "highly professional diplomatic service of the Russian Federation" from such odious "highly professional diplomats" as, completely ambivalent "ambassadors", "respected business partners" of the Kiev anti-Russian-anti-Russian "Ukrainian authorities" - "gas worker" Chernomyrdin ( Obviously, the Russophobic anti-Russian racist lampoon of his Ukrainian "friend" with such a "telling name" was not even lost, otherwise why after, during an unofficial "friendly gathering over a bottle of wine and a" party in prefecture "," in a friendly way " in the muzzle "of this Russophobic mean rot, and smiling and handing with him -" Russian diplomat "?!) and" pharmacist "Zurabov (Poroshenkov" friend "... with this" Russian diplomat ", in general, everything is clear and understandable)! fool
    Because of such an allegedly "highly professional diplomatic service," which wasted everything, did not even ask a question either in Ukraine (or in Belarus) - "And where do the multi-hundred billion Russian" fraternal subsidies and loans "go for decades, if the policy of the authorities becomes more and more Russophobic and anti-Russian, and the proclaimed "multi-vector course" gravitates towards the West, "get a view of Russia" ?!
    And hundreds of billions of state budget Russian "fraternal subsidies" all these decades, under the sly assurances of "Ukrainian partners" in "eternal friendship and good neighborliness", in their undisturbed (and minus "kickbacks" to Russian "partners") part and went to the development and strengthening all kinds of anti-Russian and anti-Russian forces (the Americans in the "Euromaidan" 2014 then publicly poked fun at the Kremlin- ​​"And we only spent 5 billion on the Kiev coup d'etat ( to bribe and "teach American democracy" to the ukrochinovniki, and for everything else, with their "trained" hands, they used your "subsidized" hundreds of billions!)!
    But the "high professionals" in Moscow pretended not to understand this mockery of Washington ?!
    The current Kremlin "strategic wishlist" voiced by "reason" (the Kremlin does not even "think" of its liquidation, only "to compel to peace", did the "forced" and re-infuriated Tbilisi not teach anything ?! fool ) "anti-Russian-anti-Russian" w / banderonazi "abscess, of course, is wonderful and delight for my Russian ears, but alas, I DO NOT BELIEVE in the sincerity of" intentions "and" determination to do as promised "that, having lost the factor of surprise, and the semblance of legitimacy (after all, in the spring of 2014, the fugitive Yanyk was considered a real, constitutionally elected, ukroprezik - this could "justify" the defeat of the Banderonazi junta in Kiev and the imposition of a real pro-Russian government - the "professional" is by no means "pro-Russian" - these are Western fools, not stupid mudflows identified their best Banderites, which were the "tihushniki" Yanyk and Azirov, these maydauns drove out "Panda Get" and served them right, otherwise these "uncontested European integrators" would have quietly siphoned off Crimea and Donbass, no one would have uttered a peep, Black Sea Fleet They would have kicked the Russian Federation out of Sevastopol and the NATO naval base would already be there, and so Crimea is free of Bandera, and Donbass, with grief and blood, is holding on for now!), The Russian Federation will be able to do this ?!
    After all, Washington and NATO have already "pulled up", have already settled in "Ukraine" and are ready to repulse! request
    1. shinobi Offline shinobi
      shinobi (Yuri) 8 December 2021 06: 04
      +2
      In Georgia, all these NATOs scrambled with the feathers leaving everything and everyone. In Afghanistan, the same story. Are you sure that the Skakuas will be different?
      1. beeper Offline beeper
        beeper 8 December 2021 10: 10
        +2
        Quote: shinobi
        In Georgia, all these NATO skedaddle with the feathers leaving everything and everyone. In Afghanistan, the same story.Are you sure that things will be different with skakuas?

        hi It's not about NATO, aka Shinobi, but about the Kremlin "strategists" - how would they again have some kind of Swiss "bra" not prevent them from finishing off the enemy ?! request
        1. shinobi Offline shinobi
          shinobi (Yuri) 8 December 2021 10: 49
          +1
          We don’t know what the strategists really have in mind. Most likely, if we do find out at all, it will take 25-30 years after the fact. In my opinion, it’s not worth fighting with Ukraine (although it’s tired of it like a garbage fly), with the collapse and breakaway of territories they themselves cope with a bang. The current measures to ensure security from the Armed Forces are quite enough. From the mere movement of troops to places of permanent deployment at the horses, diarrhea begins, although they are here in general insofar as this is more NATO and the United States. not hysterical in the media. What's in theirs, what's in ours.
  4. Mihail55 Offline Mihail55
    Mihail55 (Michael) 7 December 2021 11: 43
    +7
    Quote: Bulanov
    Why does the Russian Federation refuse to apply economic sanctions to Ukraine?

    You are absolutely right, Vladimir! I’ll add on my own - what prevents us from sending all the statebeiters of a state unfriendly to us ???
    1. beeper Offline beeper
      beeper 7 December 2021 12: 10
      +3
      hi By the way, the cunning ukrostatistiki includes ukrostatistics in the calculation of ukroVVP (slyly "drawing" its supposedly "growth" with an obvious fall!) And "Average Ukrainian salaries" - about what then Bandera Goebbelsuchs "authoritatively rub in (he himself repeatedly met this)" to Russians at Russian Internet forums, assuring that the standard of living of the majority of the Ukrainian population is even higher than the Russian one and, they say, is growing further! request
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 7 December 2021 14: 10
        +2
        So the earnings of migrant workers is still normal. They include in GDP loans on cannibalistic terms, which even their children will have to give with interest.
        They consider the growth of production in hryvnia. That is, it is clear that if something (in pieces or in tons) began to be produced by 10% less, and the price increased by 15%, then the stump is clear that statistics will record an increase of about 5%.
        And the insane growth of communal apartments is also counted in the growth of GDP.
        Has the man started to pay a communal apartment several times more? Peremoga! GDP growth.
        Received an American (German) citizenship of Ukraine and bought up land immeasurably, paying a penny (by European standards)? Peremoga again! GDP growth. Only now this land will become alien.
        Did the guest worker send his salary to his relatives? Peremoga! GDP growth. But he didn't pay taxes in 404. What are the schools to renovate? What do doctors pay?
        A foreigner bought OVGZ shares (an analogue of our GKOs, who remembers) - a change, GDP growth. But when money is returned to him with interest (very considerable), this does not affect the GDP in any way.
        Have you sold a lot of wheat (rapeseed, corn) for export? Peremoga, GDP growth! But the cultivation of these crops depletes the land (smart people say that there are no more chernozems in Ukraine). And in Ukraine, at most, a quarter of the money received remains. The rest will go to Monsanto, for fertilizers, seeds, herbicides, etc., to Russia and Belarus, for fuel and electricity. For spare parts and purchase of equipment. And the employment of the population such agricultural technology creates scanty, respectively, personal income tax is falling ..
        In short, GDP is a fairy tale for suckers. And the most spreading is the US GDP, this is generally a separate conversation.
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 7 December 2021 13: 33
    0
    The author of the article looks at the root of the problems of Russian politics
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 7 December 2021 15: 24
    +2
    It is not for nothing that Vladimir Putin constantly points out that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the "so far unrecognized" republics of Donbass will be the end for Ukrainian statehood

    Show off, do not roll bags. Well, there will be no offensive, and what, they will shell Donbass for 30 years? Transnistria lives like that, if you can call it life. There is no war, but there is no normal life either - survival! How will Putin solve the problem? The current Russian army is capable of ensuring peace along the entire perimeter of Russian borders. The United States is not shy about solving all problems by force, and only then they talk, on their own terms.
    1. andrey ivanov_2 Offline andrey ivanov_2
      andrey ivanov_2 (Andrey Ivanov) 8 December 2021 08: 13
      0
      How many adult male population is there in Donbass ??? And how many left the Donbass ??? Weapon??? - please, the military organization is working ..... You are grown-up uncles with money. Buy modern weapons (via Abkhazia). Engage in sabotage activities on the territory of Ukraine. Who's in the way ?????
      1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
        steelmaker 8 December 2021 13: 22
        0
        Who's in the way ?????

        With the S-300 in Syria, why aren't Jewish planes shot down? Who doesn't allow it?
        1. andrey ivanov_2 Offline andrey ivanov_2
          andrey ivanov_2 (Andrey Ivanov) 8 December 2021 14: 00
          0
          I don’t know .. If in the S-300 there are Syrian, and not Russian, calculations, then this is the trouble of the Syrian calculations. As well as the trouble of NM LDNR. They are being killed, their leaders, and they (like) are afraid of Putin. Do not make me laugh. If my brother or sister or mother is killed, what am I going to look at Putin ????
          1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
            steelmaker 8 December 2021 14: 22
            0
            I do not know..

            Well, if you don't know what to talk about then?
            1. andrey ivanov_2 Offline andrey ivanov_2
              andrey ivanov_2 (Andrey Ivanov) 8 December 2021 14: 42
              -1
              That is why Putin said - military aid only in the event of a full-scale attack, otherwise you will be a pain in the ass ...
              1. Larisa Byvseva Offline Larisa Byvseva
                Larisa Byvseva (Larisa Byvseva) 10 December 2021 02: 52
                0
                Donbass does not want to be a pain in the ass of anyone. People live here! More than two million people, children are born and grow up! How do you like that ?! Or are you unable to think? !!!
          2. u-off Offline u-off
            u-off (Dmitriy) 9 December 2021 07: 21
            0
            Hey, couch soldier ... why are you so sold out? Come and see how your advisors are in charge of everything. And for self-righteousness there is criminal responsibility! Look how arrogant and brave you are. Nothing - you will understand why the pound is dashing.
            1. andrey ivanov_2 Offline andrey ivanov_2
              andrey ivanov_2 (Andrey Ivanov) 9 December 2021 07: 59
              -1
              And you just found a minute between the hardest battles to squeeze your thoughts ???? Then I will notify you if it has not yet reached ourselves .... The function of Donbass is a thorn in the bottom of Ukraine.
          3. Larisa Byvseva Offline Larisa Byvseva
            Larisa Byvseva (Larisa Byvseva) 10 December 2021 02: 49
            0
            If the ammunition is not sent, yes, you will obey Putin! Or do you think that the Donbass militia is dragged by the shelling ?!
            1. andrey ivanov_2 Offline andrey ivanov_2
              andrey ivanov_2 (Andrey Ivanov) 10 December 2021 08: 00
              -1
              All of you Putin is to blame: Ukrainians do not wet - he is guilty, he sends ammunition - he is guilty, he does not send - even more guilty. Everything is decided by Putin. And he decided what is more important for Russia: Crimea, Donbass and all actions related to this. You looked at Russia a lot before 2014, but in principle you would also look after 14 years (if not for the actions of Girkin-Strelkov .......) Who elected Yanukovych - not Donbass ???? Who started this whole thing and chickened out - not a Donbass boy ???? Russia was remembered ........ Old Man - Belarusian is smarter and bolder. He brought in the troops (he doesn't care about Europe), he asked for military assistance from Putin, and everything is covered in chocolate. And as you were two-faced, you remain .......
  7. gorskova.ir Offline gorskova.ir
    gorskova.ir (Irina Gorskova) 7 December 2021 19: 16
    +7
    Then it flashed, as someone from the State Department, or from NATO, said that moving to the borders of the Russian Federation, this is a policy of "open doors". I like it. I also propose that Russia adopt this policy and "open the doors" to those cities and not only who want to join it. And not necessarily directly into the Russian Federation. Enough allied states.
  8. Vladislav N. Offline Vladislav N.
    Vladislav N. (Vlad) 7 December 2021 22: 51
    +1
    Quote: Bulanov
    Why does the Russian Federation refuse to apply economic sanctions to Ukraine?

    Burkhalter banned on May 7, 2014.
    you can google the flow of electricity, or you can read the data of the customs committee on trade turnover on the trade.ru.
  9. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 8 December 2021 03: 17
    +1
    now in the West there is a struggle of interpretations of what is happening. The American narrative - "Russia is pulling together an army to attack Ukraine" is relayed by all media (in particular in Germany). The invited experts either give out their "analysis" for this narrative, or try !!! build in alternative nuances, mentioning Ukrainian preparations, corruption there, etc. Unfortunately, those Western media (again in Germany), which see some misunderstandings in the American narrative, have no reason to seize support for the Russian vision of the situation. They quote first of all the president, then Peskov, Zakharova and Lavrov. But there we hear "Our troops have the right to move on the territory of the Russian Federation as they please" ... and what to do about it? what do you want to make of this? Here they have no chance to get out of the narrative at all. We need loud statements on the topic, which could be grabbed by the Western media, an alternative narrative. But in order to be picked up, it must be packed into something sensational, or the alternative must be constantly repeated ... "Europe should not worry about Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine, which are precisely designed to prevent the resumption of hostilities. Europe should worry about the invasion. of the Ukrainian army to Donbas ". Now the Russian version is not heard at all. It is clear that the Western media by themselves will not **** up against the wind. But they will quote the first persons, they do it. This is where you need to come up with and put the right words. And then you look and, in general, they will begin to undermine the hysteria, smooth out slobbering cries and neutralize the policies of the Americans ... after all, the picture in the media is a call to action for politicians. After all, a politician will not say when all around "Putin has already left the Kremlin in a tank", wait a minute, something doesn't fit together, let's calm down. German media are masters at switching narratives. If the Chancellor speaks more quietly, the threat from the east will disappear instantly from the Agenda. In order for him to say this, at least something needs to be changed in the agenda.
  10. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 8 December 2021 06: 13
    +2
    One thing the Pole understood correctly, we are not talking about the status of the skakuas in the EU or NATO, but about the return to the borders of 39 years. The Kakly do not catch up with the fact that they will enter the EU only in parts, as part of other countries. As a state, Ukraine has not surrendered to anyone and is now resolving the issue, behind the scenes, who is ready to take away as many territories for maintenance. The Yankees wanted Crimea, but they didn’t get it. They still hope.
  11. Larisa Byvseva Offline Larisa Byvseva
    Larisa Byvseva (Larisa Byvseva) 10 December 2021 02: 44
    0
    Michal Sergeich Gorbachev has already fallen for the fairy tale about not expanding NATO to the east, and what ?! Now only the lazy did not make fun of Gorbachev about this.
    Yes, "it never happened, and here it is again"!