Paul Roberts named Putin's mistakes that could now lead to a big war


In an atmosphere of tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border, in which Moscow and Kiev accuse each other, a number of experts are trying to constructively analyze the situation and point to the reasons for the current state of affairs. Thus, according to analyst and economist Paul Craig Roberts, one cannot discount the mistakes and miscalculations of Vladimir Putin, which could lead to a big war in Europe.


First, according to Roberts, Putin should not have denied the residents of Donbass the same protection from Russia that Crimea received in 2014. In this case, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not dare to attack these territories and try to force them to peace. In an attempt to save the situation, Moscow initiated the "Minsk format", which, on the whole, has not yet had the expected effect.

All this makes NATO leaders think that the "red lines" indicated by Russia are not very clear, and the Kremlin is not ready to fight for its interests. Among other things, NATO members are convinced of this by other miscalculations of Putin, which, in particular, relate to the situation in the Middle East. The Russian president could easily stop Israel's strikes on Syria, as well as help end the occupation of part of the SAR by American troops, but he does not.

The mistakes of the Russian intelligence services, which could not foresee the aggravation of relations with Georgia in 2008 and the Ukrainian Maidan of 2014, can also play an important role in pushing the West towards permissiveness.

Washington will not take seriously a government that is unable to pay attention to what is happening to its interests in its own "backyard"

- noted Paul Roberts in his material on the resource Paulcraigroberts.org.

Therefore, it is not surprising, as the analyst writes, that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken dares to threaten such a powerful and influential power as Russia. And the blame for everything is the restrained reaction of the Kremlin to the actions of the West, which provokes new provocations. Ultimately, Roberts fears, this could lead to a major military conflict.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 6 December 2021 11: 33
    +2
    Are Americans effective enough in their "backyard"?
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 6 December 2021 12: 46
      -6
      Canada or Mexico planning military action against the United States?
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 6 December 2021 13: 11
        +4
        America considers the whole of Latin America to be its "backyard". And not everyone is happy there.
        1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
          gunnerminer (gunner miner) 6 December 2021 13: 49
          -13
          They are not happy, but they cannot think of anything worthwhile for the fight against the United States, as in Russia.
      2. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
        sH, arK 7 December 2021 00: 59
        +4
        And Durkaina is planning military operations against Russia ?! ;)) Or Moldova? And, probably the Tribaltika ?!
        Are Americans very fond of in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua?
        1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
          gunnerminer (gunner miner) 7 December 2021 01: 09
          -5
          Are Americans very fond of in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua?

          But at the same time, they do not dare to look towards the United States.

          And Durkaina is planning military operations against Russia ?! ;)) Or Moldova? And, probably the Tribaltika ?!

          At least after the costly Makarov-Serdyukov emergency redundancies, the leaders of these Bantustans forced the Russian budget to rebuild the reduced combined arms and armored formations, albeit in a significantly curtailed form. ...
          1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
            sH, arK 7 December 2021 16: 11
            +3
            AND? Shit? Rumbled? How is Russia throwing its troops across its territory! What's next?! Complain to Santa Claus ?!

            Why don’t they dare to look? Venezuela in the United States with the war does not climb ?! So even you, the bad ones, do not climb into the LDNR already ... So from a distance you bark on a chain, in a collar, sitting down;)) You were given to understand how the matter could end ?!
            1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
              gunnerminer (gunner miner) 7 December 2021 16: 52
              -5
              How is Russia throwing its troops across its territory! What's next?! Complain to Santa Claus ?!

              It is unprofitable to keep even the ersatz unit of the BTG in the first combat readiness for more than a month. Sharply increased expenses for fuels and lubricants (armored vehicles and vehicles to warm up), spare parts and accessories, for the delivery of food and ammunition, for field allowances, the number of cases of acute respiratory infections and pneumonia will increase.

              So from a distance you bark on a chain, in a collar, sitting down;)) You were given to understand how the matter could end ?!

              Thus, the destruction of a large part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and at the same time the civilians. The termination of the export of hydrocarbons from Russia, the already low level of consumption of Russians, a considerable level of hatred towards the Russians of the conscripted Ukrainian youth and their parents. The ban on the circulation of hard currency on the territory of Russia. labor force from Russia. The collapse of the ruble and the economy.
  2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 6 December 2021 11: 44
    -8
    In an attempt to save the situation, Moscow initiated the "Minsk format", which, on the whole, has not yet had the expected effect.

    This format turned out to be a muzzle for the Foreign Ministry and the Russian Defense Ministry.

    The Russian president could easily stop Israel's strikes on Syria, as well as help end the occupation of part of the SAR by American troops, but he does not.

    For the seventh year, the Russian President has not been able to stop these strikes.

    The mistakes of the Russian intelligence services, which could not foresee the aggravation of relations with Georgia in 2008 and the Ukrainian Maidan of 2014, can also play an important role in pushing the West towards permissiveness.

    The Russian Foreign Ministry was also mistaken. They sent officials Chernomyrdin and Zurabov, who had fined them, as ambassadors to Ukraine. And the representatives of Donbass, Lukin and Gryzlov, do not shine with diplomatic talents.

    Ultimately, Roberts fears, this could lead to a major military conflict.

    Already leading, in saiga races.
  3. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 6 December 2021 12: 34
    +9
    Unfortunately, the American is right in many ways.
    1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
      Alex777 (Alexander) 7 December 2021 20: 44
      0
      Quote: Dimy4
      Unfortunately, the American is right in many ways.

      The American is wrong.
      He doesn't know anything about actions in 2008.
      Everything was done brilliantly.
      53 officers received awards for misinforming Saakashvili that Moscow will not intervene.
      He knows nothing about how the operation in Crimea was prepared in 2014.
      And she had been preparing for 3 years. And the overthrow of Yanukovych was a prerequisite for its successful implementation.
      When Obama realized how he contributed, he was very upset. bully
      1. Larisa Byvseva Offline Larisa Byvseva
        Larisa Byvseva (Larisa Byvseva) 8 December 2021 10: 24
        0
        Maybe the operation to substitute Donbass for the monastery was being prepared for three years ?! Vile !!!
        1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
          Alex777 (Alexander) 9 December 2021 19: 48
          0
          Quote: Larisa Byvseva
          Maybe the operation to substitute Donbass for the monastery was being prepared for three years ?! Vile !!!

          What kind of substitution of Donbass are you talking about?
          What was being prepared passed without noise, dust and casualties.
  4. Jarilo Offline Jarilo
    Jarilo (Sergei) 6 December 2021 13: 36
    -3
    For our leaders to act in the interests of their country, it is necessary that they have no interests in another. And Putin and his inner circle have an immediate interest. There were negotiations between Sechin and others to surrender the Kuril Islands to Japan in exchange for a channel for withdrawing money abroad after the sanctions were imposed over Crimea.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  5. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 6 December 2021 13: 38
    +5
    Nothing to add
  6. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 6 December 2021 13: 47
    +4
    In fact, the pressure exerted on Russia by the West can help Russia consolidate even more around the current government. The West mistakenly thinks that it can forcibly sweep away the Russian elite, replacing them with obedient poodles, and that the Russians are just waiting for this. The more the West tries to "punish" Russia, while displaying outright cynicism, the more Russian society will rally around the president. In this vein, the current military threat to Russia from the West only contributes to the plans of 2024.
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 6 December 2021 14: 12
      -2
      ... what does all this have to do with it?
    2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 7 December 2021 01: 10
      -6
      In fact, the pressure exerted on Russia by the West can help Russia consolidate even more around the current government.

      The newspaper Zavtra does not dare to tell such tales.
  7. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 6 December 2021 14: 02
    +4
    A long way has passed since 2004, when our leadership allowed the Baltic States to join NATO. Since then, we have admitted a lot of different things ...
    ... and were allowed ...
  8. rsp951 Offline rsp951
    rsp951 (Sergey Kuznetsov) 6 December 2021 14: 12
    +6
    If in 2014 the LDNR were allowed to reach Kiev, there would be no current problems and the children would be alive
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 7 December 2021 01: 12
      -2
      Hundreds of all sorts of "if" brought to the current state.
    2. Dima Offline Dima
      Dima (Dmitriy) 7 December 2021 20: 19
      +3
      Why lie to ourselves, the LDNR could not reach Kiev in 2014, and the invasion of Russian troops would be too expensive. Russia would have to endure expensive sanctions, a conflict with Europe and maintain 35 million hostile population.
      1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
        Alex777 (Alexander) 7 December 2021 22: 33
        0
        One person just works for a salary in Ukraine.
        gunnerminer very famous character on bmpd.
        The other simply sees nothing beyond slogans about all the good.
      2. Vladimir Daetoya (Vladimir Daetoya) 9 December 2021 19: 57
        0
        Russia would have to endure expensive sanctions, a conflict with Europe and maintain 35 million hostile population.

        So, didn't the Teutons imposed sanctions for the invasion of Russian troops into Donbas? That is the mistake that the troops did not bring in, but paid the price for the capture of Donbas.
  9. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 6 December 2021 15: 12
    +6
    Well, yes, that's right, Paul Roberts said, alas! recourse
    On my own I will add that I realized a long time ago who was "inevitably beaten first" in the Leningrad gateways ... request ("theories" - that many of us know how to "tell in hindsight", but if you take "hunting and fishing stories" - this is, in general, a song, real "oil paintings" ... smile ).
    ***
    * "lyrical digression" inspired by the topic above (not obligatory for reading at all)
    When I went in for sports in my youth, I read a lot of all kinds of methodological sports and psychological literature that I could get and find (there was no Internet at the Union yet, everything was in paper form, typographic books, magazines and brochures, reprints on tissue paper, handwritten notes re-photographed by "Zenith", and from "Leninka", by cash on delivery, they sent microfilms-negative or positive to choose from) and listened from colleagues and coaches "the secrets of preparation and methods of cheating, sports superstitions and methods of dealing with competitive jitters "...
    But most of all I remembered (and we then consciously practiced with the newly enrolled boys and girls) the method of preparing winners, future champions, is "climbing the steps", when a "selected" promising novice athlete, as his level of training grows, is taken to the competition in stages and among the participants, comparable in preparation (or even weaker)!
    In such a way that a promising young athlete has as many victories and as few (ideally, none!) Defeats as possible, so that his psyche, in the process of formation, gets used to victories, is the mentality of a winner, and not broken and clouded constant defeats (if figuratively - "regular beatings in the alleyway")!
    This, of course, on purpose, by coaches, created such artificial "sterile conditions" (only for cherished individual "champions"), which are not and have never been "on the street" (not only in Leningrad, but everywhere)!
    On the street (and not only request ) often "big guys beat little ones, strong-weak ones ..."
    But, in any case, this is, apart from physical, in many ways a psychological trauma, "a sediment for the rest of your life"!
    That is why they say "for one beaten, two unbeaten give"!
    But the usual ( desperate, "violent", to whom "the devil is not a brother", there are always countless units! - this is the law of Nature) "beaten (especially beaten in childhood)" then, until the end of his life, is cautious, yields and "avoids traumatic situations"!
    And he “hits first” only defending himself (or, in his own fantasies, mentally or aloud, trying to compensate, “replay-re-show in front of his screen of consciousness or listeners” in a positive way a specific psycho-traumatic situation that is firmly entrenched in the brain), only being hopelessly driven "into a remote corner" ...
    IMHO, my personal opinion, maybe erroneous, I do not impose on anyone!
    1. komandir8 Offline komandir8
      komandir8 (Alexander) 6 December 2021 16: 06
      +6
      In 1945, a rifle regiment, advancing in Poland with an attack on the move, captured one Polish city while defeating a motorized SS battalion, and then repelled all attacks from the coming Wehrmacht reserves. The regiment commander was asked how one regiment could accomplish this, to which he replied: "If I had soldiers from 1941, I would have completed this combat mission with one battalion."
      1. beeper Offline beeper
        beeper 6 December 2021 17: 14
        +6
        hi A good propaganda example, komandir8, Plusanul for your selfless patriotism and "the beauty of the commander's dashing phrase" - he clearly knew a lot about party political work, how, in a favorable light, to show himself in front of the authorities and please the political departments! good
        It echoes the thought that I wanted to cite here, in my previous comment, but did not cite it (since I considered it to be an obvious overkill, but now I see that the "military topic" would also "come in" winked ) - about the Wehrmacht 1941 and like our fathers and grandfathers in stubborn defensive battles of the 41st, from the very first day, despite the oppressive atmosphere of retreat and surrender to the enemy of vast expanses of their native land and compatriots, panic and disorganization, heavy losses and abandonment enemy of their wounded comrades, mass surrenders and captures of demoralized soldiers and commanders of the Red Army, encirclements of many hundreds and heavy losses, gradually, with all their strength, methodically knocking out the "spirit of the victor" from the enemy, they began to "break the psyche" of the victorious Nazis in Europe .. .and already in 1944-45 the Germans from the Wehrmacht and the SS were no longer the same brazenly confident in themselves, their superiority over us and their victory, as they came in 1941 to seize our land under their "Lebensraum"!
        Yes, and our fighters-commanders, for the most part, in 1944-1945 were already with the psychology of winners, soldiers of the victorious Red Army! soldier
  10. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 December 2021 00: 17
    +4
    "The restrained reaction of the Kremlin," as Roberts tactfully puts it, has a detrimental effect not only on the attitude of the West towards us.
    The environment of Russia, based on its actions, right now decides about the prospects for its survival and its suitability as a leader.
    If some countries come to the conclusion that Russia is a “lame duck”, then they choose the other side as a leader. This is already happening.
    Imagine the consequences of the negative choice of neighboring states for us.
    If Russia does not involve them in its interests, the States will subordinate them to their interests. The prospect of sharing Russia's resources will unite everyone. In this question.
    The environment will become hostile to Russia, as the United States is now.
    It looks like the West is now forming a "mechanism" for the absorption and assimilation of Russia by the outside world.
    Imagine the results of this process:
    Around Russia there is a ring of hostile states. On their territories there are US bases with weapons aimed at us. The unanimous world is against Russia. Insulation. An infinite number of directions of attack and options for enemy operations.
    Long before that, a defeatist agenda will be formed in the media and the country's leadership.
    Indeed, the game will be hopelessly lost.
    When this goes too far, Russia will have no future at all.
    Even if she belatedly took up proper defenses.
    The changes take place according to the ratchet principle. It is almost impossible to squeeze them back.
    Every day the attractiveness and possibilities of the future available to us are shrinking in size.
    In order to see this, strategic goal-setting and planning are necessary, which the current leadership of the country does not have. In this it is “blind”.
    The life of the authorities today, the shifting of problems to the future, are possibly included in the calculation by the Americans, hence their confidence in their actions.
    This is my picture of what is happening
  11. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 7 December 2021 08: 14
    0
    Quote: pishchak
    And he “hits first” only defending himself (or, in his own fantasies, mentally or aloud, trying to compensate, “replay-re-show in front of his screen of consciousness or listeners” in a positive way a specific psycho-traumatic situation that is firmly entrenched in the brain), only being hopelessly driven "into a remote corner" ..

    Or weaker, forgetting then to indicate who was the initiator of the fight.
  12. Russian Community (Russian Community) 7 December 2021 09: 16
    +1
    Your position and sequence of actions has long been clear - a template. Our ... but try wink
  13. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 December 2021 10: 22
    +1
    In the comments of the participants in the discussions, the idea is slipping that Putin is not free in his decisions, and that the system of goals of power is actually controlled by big capital.
    This order arose under Yeltsin, and Putin simply “entered” it, accepting the “rules of the game”.
    The oligarchs believe that they have already “saved themselves” by placing their money offshore and their children in the West. Their task is to take as much as possible from the country. This, in fact, serves our army and nuclear weapons. Protect the interests of big business from the West. They do this for themselves until they take everything they can from the country. The people with their interests and the future are “resting on the sidelines”.
    Thus, they will fight with the West for the country only as long as it is profitable for them, and never for its future.
    Much that has happened over the past decades, in my opinion, confirms this point of view.
    Hence the economy and minimalism in equipping the armed forces, the initial election of nuclear weapons as a "panacea" to the detriment of conventional weapons, the lack of strategic planning and a focus on economic projects to the detriment of foreign policy. Hence the lack of breakthrough government investment in the development of manufacturing industries throughout the country. Finally, from here comes the mysterious inviolability of huge money, which has been in reserve for decades without use.
    This is not my point of view, but lately I have been thinking about it more and more often.
    As for Putin, it is he who is responsible for Russia before its people, before all of us, before those who fell in the Great Patriotic War, for its future, before God. This is my point of view
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 7 December 2021 16: 08
      +2
      Not only he answers, but the whole team that turns and controls everything. Lenin said - kick them out to hell. But the modern environment requires - to hang them.
  14. Jora bayramow Offline Jora bayramow
    Jora bayramow (Jora Bayramow) 7 December 2021 17: 29
    +1
    From the point of view of analytical and sound analysis, this expert is right.
  15. Arthur Nod Offline Arthur Nod
    Arthur Nod (Artur Bugrienko) 7 December 2021 20: 10
    -1
    I don’t quite understand why the people here got mad. Everything was gone! Help! Paul Roberts is blinkered with Yankee thinking. He carried and not so in 2013-2014.
  16. Face Offline Face
    Face (Alexander Lik) 8 December 2021 19: 27
    0
    Another interpreter and connoisseur of Putin's thoughts. And naturally, in the best traditions of Angloidoping, he turned everything upside down. But once he was sane.