Why is Lukashenko afraid of the emergence of the post of President of the Union State


President Lukashenko has given new food for thought today. Answering a question from a British BBC journalist, Alexander Grigorievich replied that there is no talk at all about any "single president" of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. At the same time, President Putin some time ago hinted at the introduction of a single Parliament of the Union State, to which "it is still necessary to grow." I wonder where this all goes. Let's try to figure it out.


It is rather difficult to argue on this topic, since there is no clear and unambiguous legal definition of what a Union State is: a federation, a confederation, just some kind of union of states or something else. The matter is also confused by President Lukashenko, who, apparently, does not understand very well what he is building:

Forming their union since the mid-1990s ... it was clearly defined that these would be two countries - Belarus and Russia, which would build a union. And it will be more powerful than a unitary state.

Still, the Union of States and the Union State are clearly not identical definitions in their meaning. And the comparison with a unitary state is not entirely clear. The Belarusian president allowed even more fog when he began to draw some parallels with relations between Great Britain and the United States when communicating with the Briton:

You are with America, I am with Russia. What is the problem? You have more than the Union State. The Americans told you to leave the European Union, you left.

In general, everything becomes too complicated and incomprehensible if you try to take into account this verbal balancing act. Therefore, let's operate with facts. So, Russia is objectively facing the task of gradual reintegration in the post-Soviet space. At the same time, the local elites that have formed in 30 years after the collapse of the USSR are absolutely not ready to share their sovereignty and "feeding trough" with Moscow. Nevertheless, some interest in rapprochement with Russia was shown in Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Serbia. At one time, the former President of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev considered options with unification with Russia in the format of a confederation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. Astana was not ready for more then for obvious reasons. The farthest went Belarus, which signed an agreement on the creation of the Union State of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation back in 1999. What is it: an unfinished federation, a confederation, or an alliance of two sovereign states?

The trick is that it is nowhere clearly defined, which leaves room for interpretation. However, if you look at the functionality, the Union State at this historical stage is closer to the confederation. By definition, a confederation is a union of sovereign states that have united to solve common problems and carry out joint actions. Each of its members retains its state sovereignty, legislation, the structure of governing bodies, currency, giving to the common center only a narrow range of tasks - joint defense and external policy.

If we apply the above to the Union State, then, by and large, in reality, since 1999, only the function of joint defense has been realized. For the sovereignty of Belarus, "Batka" stands to death, emphasizing at every convenient and inconvenient occasion that Minsk itself determines its foreign and domestic policy. It turns out that de facto the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus have created a "scanty" version of the confederation. But now a lot has changed.

If you look at the agreement on the creation of the Union State, then it provides for the creation of a number of supranational bodies: the General Parliament, the Supreme State Council, the Council of Ministers, the Court, the Accounts Chamber and the Standing Committee. In other words, these are all branches of the supranational government of the two countries, Russia and Belarus. If we call a spade a spade, then these are attributes of a “soft” federation, not of a confederation. Obviously, their appearance means a certain decrease in the sovereignty of each of the members of the Union State, which will have to, for example, implement and apply supranational legislation, decisions of the general government, etc.

For an understandable reason, "Batka" fought off the transformation of "paper" power structures into real ones, especially from the emergence of the post of a single president of the Union State, but in 2020 all its "multi-vector" nature ended. On National Unity Day, he signed 28 roadmaps to unite the economic space of Russia and Belarus. That is, something appears that needs to be managed, which leads to the need to create supranational state bodies - the Council of Ministers, the Court for resolving trade issues, the Accounts Chamber, etc. President Putin bluntly stated where this is going:

We believe that first of all you need to do the economy, and then everything will naturally require additional regulation. Including, perhaps, at the level of the union parliament, I do not exclude the possibility that one can be created.

There is no doubt that integration objectively requires the creation of supranational bodies of legislative, executive and judicial power. Then a natural question arises: will there be a certain president of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus? In the agreement on its creation, such a figure was not provided, there is only a certain Supreme State Council, consisting of two presidents, where decisions must be taken unanimously on the basis of consensus. Note that this body, like the Council of Ministers, is non-permanent and convenes as needed. It is obvious that for the operational management of the affairs of the Union State, all of its bodies must become permanent and acquire real powers of authority recognized on the territory of both countries. And here, against the background of recent events, the question of the head of the Union State, or the president, no matter what it will be called, becomes relevant.

Recall that the United States recently announced an initiative to deny recognition of the results of the presidential elections in Russia in 2024, if Vladimir Putin accepts and wins. If such a resolution is adopted, the United States and its allies will have a free hand in rocking the political situation in our country, as was the case in Belarus in 2020. Perhaps it will be much tougher. The question arises, what should the Kremlin do? It is possible, of course, to ignore Washington's preparations and go to "zeroing", hoping that it might be bypassed.

But you can do otherwise. For example, to complete the process of integration of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus into the federal Union State by 2024, introducing the post of the single head of the Supreme State Council in it. This is where Vladimir Putin could have gone, leaving the presidency to his successor. Alyaksandr Lukashenka could be offered the post of head of the Council of Ministers of the Union State or the united Parliament. Not the worst option, rather, very reasonable. Having created a "soft" federation of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, one can go by the way of building a confederation with the countries closest to us in the post-Soviet space on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 24 November 2021 08: 40
    0
    It is this option that will disarm the Americans. What can they have against the newly created state? And then Ukraine or Kyrgyzstan will join, and here again a new state ...
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 November 2021 08: 41
      0
      Ukraine, if only along the left bank and along the Black Sea ...
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 24 November 2021 08: 42
        +2
        Well, yes, and the right bank will pay debts to the IMF.
      2. beeper Offline beeper
        beeper 24 November 2021 18: 01
        0
        Odessa on the right bank! repeat
        1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 12: 47
          +1
          So along the Black Sea smile
          1. beeper Offline beeper
            beeper 25 November 2021 16: 05
            0
            hi And the infrastructure adjacent to this "Black Sea strip" is tied to the former Wild Field, the historical Novorossia!
            Yekaterinoslav is also on both banks of the Dnieper, partly the former Kherson province-industrial mining and metallurgical Krivoy Rog (part of the DKR-Donetsk-Kryvyi Rih Republic, later given by Lenin to the Ukrainian SSR), with its iron-ore quarries and mines, and Yellow River with uranium mines, Nikopol and Manganets with reserves of ferro-manganese ores, after all, too, on the right bank of the Dnieper! yes
            1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
              Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 16: 21
              +1
              Well, by the Black Sea strip I meant the regions of historical Novorossia, including, even though they are on the Right Bank.
              In my opinion, the solution lies in the fragmentation of Ukraine into regions with different status and different destinies, since Russia cannot digest it entirely now. There are options:
              1) New Russia to Russia as a new federal district, Little Russia is a protectorate of Russia, formally independent, ZU is a protectorate of its European neighbors.
              2) The Left Bank, the Pole of the Black Sea Region, go to the Russian Federation as a new district, while the independent Ukraine remains on the Right Bank, informally absorbed by its European neighbors (undesirable).
              3) The Left Bank plus the Black Sea region remain formally independent, as a protectorate of Russia. The right bank remains under the joint control of the Russian Federation and Europe. This is a compromise solution.
              ... other options are also possible.
  2. Dukhskrepny Offline Dukhskrepny
    Dukhskrepny (Vasya) 24 November 2021 09: 39
    -2
    Lukashenko for the presidency of the Union State
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 25 November 2021 11: 18
      0
      Lukashenko for the presidency of the Union State

      let this selyuk rule your farm, Uasya. You can nominate him as the head of your garage cooperative - he has the very position there
      1. Dukhskrepny Offline Dukhskrepny
        Dukhskrepny (Vasya) 1 December 2021 07: 16
        0
        Yes, he will not plunder and sell to "oligarch friends" the country like your tsar
  3. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 24 November 2021 12: 54
    +2
    the main thing is to unite the space with a common currency - the ruble. Dissolving Belarus in Russia, so that even at the Olympics it could not perform itself is not an option. They won't agree with that. But something like the EU, with a parliament, a separate general budget (while maintaining national budgets) can work out. For Belarus, this is just a fairy tale, because Russia has a budget surplus and almost a trillion $ of reserves. The expansion of the ruble zone will make it possible to spend more money without the risk of inflation. Funds in the general budget will go to projects of the union state, which in fact will mean multibillion-dollar infusions into the Belarusian economy.
    And when everyone sees how rapidly Belarus is developing in the union state, many others will want to go there too ..
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 24 November 2021 12: 58
    -1
    Reforming the union state into one, leads to the loss of international status and will reduce Belarus to the level of numerous republics of the Russian Federation. This is all the more painful for the state formation of a member of the UN and, until recently, had the status of a state formation that possessed nuclear weapons and the means of their delivery.
    Any downgrade is always perceived painfully, and in this case it affects the national feelings of the ruling class and the population, which neither Alexander Grigorievich nor the leadership of the Russian Federation can ignore, and even Western partners will hurry up.
    Therefore, any talk about merging and creating a single state is provocative.
    The essence of the union state is in political, economic, social, military, integration, while maintaining the international status and independence of each, by analogy with the EU - there is no other.
    The most important obstacle to a full-fledged integration process is the transition to a single currency and a mechanism for the emission of common banknotes. They will decide this issue - the rest will follow. They will not decide that one can forget about a single state once and for all. It will be good if they remain allies in the future.
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 25 November 2021 11: 19
      -1
      Therefore, any talk about merging and creating a single state is provocative.

      Therefore, we will continue to live at the expense of the Muscovites and twist their dummies (c) by shitting under the door and arresting Gazprom managers, 30 chvkashniki and much more
  5. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 November 2021 13: 35
    +1
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    Therefore, any talk about merging and creating a single state is provocative.
    The essence of the union state is in political, economic, social, military, integration, while maintaining the international status and independence of each, by analogy with the EU - there is no other.

    What are you talking about. Straightly provocative?
    And what is the Union State? Give a definition.
  6. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 24 November 2021 19: 03
    +1
    Considering the issue of "delegation of powers" in the Union State raised in the Article, I think that it is necessary to take into account that Alexander Grigorievich is, in fact, the same dependent, consensus, "galley rower" in his RB, as Vladimir Vladimirovich in his in the RF! Although the Constitution gives them, as presidents, the full right to determine the foreign policy of their states ...
    And in the "galley team" Lukashenka "they order the tune", but it is not he who "dictates it (as Western" curators of democracies "like to assure us, indiscriminately branding AGL" the last dictator of Europe ")"!
    No, well, "to the public" But father always performs solo, portrays a kind of simple - "from the plow", "collective farm-chairman's authoritarianism" - such as he has, polished for decades, the original (since 1994 debut as President of the Republic of Belarus) "people's image"! request
    But behind the scenes, not "on camera", as "people who come in" do (and you can see this by Rygorych's "guilty eyes", no "formidable bravado" can hide it ...), in a completely different way, very much even "collegially" , there is "communication" in the "inner circle" and conceptual decisions are made ...
    Therefore, all these "representative issues" of the SG and "settle" with "spheres of business interests" almost completely "without a social mask", bourgeois-feudal post-Soviet "capitalists" of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation) will have to be comprehensively "commanding" (and not only satisfying the personal ambitions of the AHL and VVP - "who to give, take what post, like or dislike, afraid - is not afraid "and the desired" personal security guarantees "!)" so that the "process goes" and everything "was on the ointment" ...
    IMHO, I do not impose! hi
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 12: 36
      +1
      Yes, the factor of influence of oligarchic circles cannot be ignored.
      Russian oligarchs are objectively stronger and interested in absorbing smaller fish.
      However, are the Belarusian "elites" in a position now to bargain heavily?
      1. beeper Offline beeper
        beeper 25 November 2021 15: 40
        +1
        Quote: Marzhetsky
        Yes, the factor of influence of oligarchic circles cannot be ignored.
        Russian oligarchs are objectively stronger and interested in absorbing smaller fish.
        However, are the Belarusian "elites" in a position now to bargain heavily?

        hi Sergei, in fact, not all of the Belarusian "elites" have come to terms with "integration" into the Union State, finally, which is no longer just a profitable (for the Belarusian authorities) "duty formality", this does not really correspond to their Western aspirations (which for the time being, like Yanyk and Azirov, LAS and his "associates" mask with the word "multi-vector", trying to "drift to the West" in an anti-Russian manner, but at the expense of "fraternal Russia", as it is, "quietly ", did all the ukrovlast until the" uncontested European integrators "Yanyk and Azirov tried to force this westernized anti-Russian" transition "and completely tore ukRuina" off the table, "creating all the prerequisites with their reckless" European integration "actions and provoking a successful" euromaid "coup d'etat!) ...
        Belarusian officials and politicians (like their Ukrainian counterparts in October 2013-January-February 2014) "fidgeted-vibrated" very much in August-September 2020, and some "hurry-ups" even "made false starts with over-shoes" - they "ran in front of the locomotive", in the calculation to be the first to grab "silver coins" from overseas puppeteers ...
        Only unequivocal support (and not the dull "Olympic chewing of snot", they say, "it will dissolve by itself, we have gas transit obligations to Europe and the Sochi Olympics, calm is only calm", as it was during the Kiev "Euromaidan" ...) of Moscow, active intransigence of the militant Butler (by no means ambivalent, for the rest of his life "broken by prison", imposing lumpy "proFesor" Yanyk-Leopold, who fell unconscious even from a rotten tomato thrown at him ...) and incapacity to negotiate ("gone into denial" by attitude towards the closest associates of Lukashenka who are ready to "negotiate") the marginal "Maidan government (of the scumbags gnawing among themselves," zmagars ", quasi" intellectuals-masters of thoughts "such as the foolish spiteful Russophobic" Nobel Sveta-writer "...)" stopped them from the "surrender" of their "patron" at the mercy of the "Maidan" criminals and loyal queues to the Minsk branch (or even to neighboring Warsaw and Vilnius) of the "ameropospatsiya" for personal yummy "tasty treats"!
        Stupid Western leaders, trying to scare, also spurred on and rejected "personal sanctions", turned into a "liability", their own latent "asset" in the top leadership of the Republic of Belarus (betting on worthless shtetl grant-suckers - stupid noisy "intellectuals" from the "White opposition" ) ... and serve it right! wassat
        Why, the Belarusian "Father" himself, no matter how much his "lukanomics" is fed by Russian irrecoverable loans, still looks to the West with hope and does not get tired of "giving signals" there-like "I belong, well, take me into your circle, don’t reject "?!
        Even in an interview with a British journalist, this clearly manifests itself, behind all Lukashenka's evasive "equivocations" ?! smile
        Vladimir Putin and his comrades-in-arms will still have to "squeeze and squeeze" towards the Union State, stubbornly "bending their line" of the Belarusian Father and his Cabinet!
        Chesslovo, Sergei, I will be sincerely surprised if everything will be settled "as if it were written" with the SG of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus; if there is no person, there is no problem "with whom then Vladimir Putin should negotiate, if, in fact, everything is" tied "to the" rejected by the West ", conventionally" pro-Russian ", westernoid AG Lukashenko, and without him everything changes" layouts "in an almost completely westernized Belarusian" politician "??!)!
  7. bonifacius Offline bonifacius
    bonifacius (Alex) 25 November 2021 02: 13
    -1
    ... At the same time, President Putin hinted some time ago about the introduction of a single Parliament of the Union State ...

    President Putin does not stutter, but speaks.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 09: 51
      +1
      Watch the bazaar
      1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
        Alexndr p (Alexander) 25 November 2021 11: 20
        -2
        Watch the bazaar

        you are a very cocky "journalist"
        And in fact, you stutter and wonder on the coffee grounds in almost every article of yours - and Putin does the same things.
        1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 12: 33
          +1
          Quotation marks are not appropriate. I am a good journalist precisely because I do my job well. I am not obliged to sing praises to anyone here; what I see is what I write. There are enough lackeys without me.
          And Putin, yes, he does business ...
          1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
            Alexndr p (Alexander) 25 November 2021 12: 36
            -2
            I am a good journalist precisely because I do my job well.

            Well, here it is, as it were, without options then, since you think so laughing
            at a factory or logging, you would bring more benefits to the state. and there would be more sense from you, as well as less water on the Internet
            1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
              Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 12: 38
              +1
              Quite right. And not only me. And you learn to spell your name correctly, then talk about journalism.
              1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
                Alexndr p (Alexander) 25 November 2021 12: 38
                -1
                laughing ok ok
                1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
                  Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 12: 39
                  +1
                  Well, okay
  8. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 25 November 2021 14: 27
    +1
    He has his whole life and all his values ​​under his ass - this is the president's chair. And suddenly in the union state it will not be he, but some kind of Tikhanovskaya, or Babaryko, or some other great friend of his.
  9. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 November 2021 15: 47
    +1
    Quote: pishchak
    Vladimir Putin and his comrades-in-arms will still have to "squeeze and squeeze" towards the Union State, stubbornly "bending their line" of the Belarusian Father and his Cabinet!
    [b] Chesslovo, Sergei, I’ll be sincerely surprised if everything will be settled “as if it were written” with the State Security Service of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, too Belarusian “elites” do not want this (no matter how they sniff with the Western special services and eliminate their “key representative” , after all, "if there is no person, there is no problem", with whom then will Vladimir Putin negotiate, if, in fact, everything is "tied" to the "rejected by the West", conditionally "pro-Russian" Westernoid A.G. Lukashenko, and without him are changing all "layouts" in the almost completely Westernized Belarusian "politician" ??!)!

    I understand what you are driving at. I think Old Man is being guarded like the apple of his eye. Otherwise, fools are sitting in Creme at all. Completely foolish.
    But Father himself must understand that he is too inconvenient for everyone: both for the West and for his pro-Western elites. His only salvation is real integration and the transition to a higher level, together with Putin, in the leadership of the SGRFRB. Leave a successor instead. Otherwise, they will really multiply by zero.
    Our GDP should also do this.
    1. beeper Offline beeper
      beeper 25 November 2021 16: 22
      0
      hi I completely agree with you, Sergey! yes
  10. S WITH Offline S WITH
    S WITH (N S) 25 November 2021 23: 41
    0
    Luke wants to reign personally? well, let him rule his collective farm, but on his own money, but he does not have them, despite the subsidies received by Russia of 130 billion, the debt of the Republic of Belarus is already 42 billion, which means Luka will have to flee from creditors or join the Russian Federation