Modern Diplomacy: Russia will not invade Ukraine, and there are several reasons for this

Russia will redeploy troops from time to time, building up its military presence along its western borders. Moscow has every right to move its combat units across the country, but sometimes such moves cause concern in the West. Some experts fear a possible Russian aggression against Ukraine. However, according to Modern Diplomacy, this is unlikely to happen for a number of reasons.

Since 2014, Ukraine has received military assistance from the United States. Kiev also concluded defensive agreements with London. While the Russian military remains vastly superior to the Ukrainian forces, an invasion would incur significant military costs and result in the deaths of Russian soldiers. In addition, in this case, intervention in the conflict between the EU and the United States is possible.

С economic from the point of view, the occupation of Ukraine will lead to huge economic losses on the part of Russia. Moscow sends $ 1,5 billion to Crimea every year, which is 68 percent of the peninsula's budget. Territorial acquisitions are very costly for Russian taxpayers - apparently for this reason, Russia refused to annex Donbass in 2014, although local residents asked for it.

The unleashing of the war with Ukraine by the Kremlin will also run into tough sanctions from the EU and the United States, which will cause even greater damage to the already sluggish economy of the Russian Federation. This will lead to a deterioration in the standard of living of Russians and a drop in the approval rating of President Putin.

Any military attack on Ukraine would mean that Russia intends to destabilize Europe with military force. This would make Russia a rogue state, leading to real international isolation. An attack on Ukraine will also damage Putin's political image at home and abroad. No matter what the West may say about him, the Russian president remains a pragmatic and balanced leader of the country, and so far there is no reason to doubt this.

Ultimately, according to Modern Diplomacy, an invasion of Ukraine will harm Russia on all fronts - militarily, economically and diplomatically. It will also diminish Putin's popularity in Russia because of the inevitable economic hardship that could arise from a major war. The Russian president is not interested in destroying internal political instability, especially when his approval ratings are already lower than several years ago.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 22 November 2021 15: 49
    In general, Russia does not want to take Ukraine so as not to feed its people later (especially pensioners, who now have a pension of 2,5 thousand hryvnias). Even the father of Peter 1, Alexei Mikhailovich, did not want to take Little Russia, so as not to fight the Poles. They barely persuaded him.
    And if the EU, in which case, arranges grandiose sanctions against the Russian Federation, it will be cut off from Russian energy resources and from air links with Asia - it will become a run-down province of the world. Now smart people in the EU have begun to understand this and will side with Russia if something happens.
  2. Pilot Offline Pilot
    Pilot (Pilot) 22 November 2021 15: 55
    Yeah, invade to feed. The slogan is not suitable. Let them crawl in their own ukre there.
  3. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 22 November 2021 16: 07
    There are two reasons: 1.the betrayer that began with the Minsk agreements, which allowed Kiev to kill civilians in Donbass with impunity for 7 years. cowardice of the Russian authorities before the reaction of the West, if Russia starts helping the republics to protect the lives of civilians, including citizens of Russia. Although the authorities almost always give a damn about their citizens. Express regret and concern.
  4. DVF Offline DVF
    DVF (Denis) 22 November 2021 18: 13
    They drive the blizzard, we will still take Catherine's belt.
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 23 November 2021 18: 24
    The Minsk agreements do not work and will not work, an obvious fact. Ukraine categorically refuses to recognize the situation in Donbass as an internal problem, which means a war with the Russian Federation, and therefore the inevitability of a transition to active hostilities is a matter of time. How, then, would you order the Russian Federation to react when citizens who received Russian passports begin to die en masse, and there are from 300 thousand of them. up to half a million. There will be only one way to protect them - by force, i.e. the entry of the Russian Federation into a war with Ukraine, and if NATO is involved, then into a war with NATO with all the possible consequences of this. If the Russian Federation tries to evade, this will many times exceed the consequences of the collapse of the USSR.
  6. Fardibaka Offline Fardibaka
    Fardibaka (Alexey) 25 November 2021 13: 51
    Of course it will not invade, but will come home!