Empty results of the summit of the leaders of China and the United States: for whom is time working?

Without any exaggeration, it can be argued that the talks between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping that took place the day before, albeit in the now traditional virtual format, were perhaps the most anticipated and important event of this difficult time. Too much is “tied” on a global scale to the relationship between the two superpowers - both politically and economically, and, of course, in the military-strategic respect. The fate of the world really depends on the decisions of two people who were on opposite sides of the videoconference line that day.

The meeting (if I can put it this way about the conversation "at a distance") was held "in a warm, friendly atmosphere", fortunately, not overshadowed by any pronounced confrontational demarches on both sides. There is no doubt that today exchanges and markets around the world will react to it with unambiguously positive dynamics. And, nevertheless, this summit, of course, did not become any "breakthrough" or even "step forward". It can hardly be said that as a result of it, at least one of the serious problems darkening relations between Beijing and Washington received its resolution. The confrontation will continue and is likely to grow. Why? Let's try to figure it out together.

The miracle did not happen

Here at this very place, in fact, the question arises: "And what, it should have been ?!" And what is it, this is the most "miracle", which would mark a radical turning point in the multifaceted, which has been going on for many years, which has a great variety of components - from ideological to economic, the conflict between the United States and China, should be expressed? The head of the White House and President Xi, having at once rejected all the fundamental contradictions that exist not just between the states they lead, but the dividing systems that both of them personify, would suddenly be filled with mutual love and complete trust? Would you immediately agree on the abolition of all restrictive duties, protective tariffs and customs barriers that you managed to pile up among themselves at least for a relatively recent time? Would they amicably "settle" the issue with Taiwan, while recognizing as wrong the reciprocal steps to build up their own military presence, at least in the waters of the South China Sea?

All this, of course, is utter absurdity and dreams that are completely unrealizable in practice. The confrontation between the United States and the Celestial Empire is not some list of mutual claims, consisting of a finite number of clear and unambiguous points, "removing" which one after another can completely exhaust the very subject of contention. Rather, we have before us a very complex mechanism, like a watch, where some "wheels" cling tightly to others, others, and so on. But at the same time there are also hidden "springs" invisible to a simple glance that bring it into action. Where is here policyWhere is the ideology, where is the economy, and where are some hidden motives in general that cannot be easily explained, it is extremely problematic to figure it out.

Joe Biden, however, in the good old American manner, tried to reduce everything to elementaryism: they say, between our countries there should be exceptionally "healthy direct competition", in no case turning into conflicts of a more serious nature, above all the military. Sounds great, as did the "clearly expressed reluctance to deepen the confrontation" by the US President, seen by the journalists of the PRC Central Television. There, by the way, in the behavior of Biden during the summit they also saw "the absence of a desire to strengthen anti-Chinese alliances." This already sounds, at least, strange - against the background of the recent creation of AUKUS, a military bloc that is clearly directed exclusively against the Celestial Empire. Biden was very vague about the fact that Washington's "one China" policy "remains unchanged" despite everything, adding to this "serious concerns about the" Chinese military preparations "going around the island and even" warning "Beijing against" unilateral attempts "to change its state status.

In turn, Xi Jinping was much more frank and specific. According to him, "Greater China" is still willing to wait patiently for the amicable return of the "lost brothers" and "peaceful reunification" with them. However, if the "Taiwanese separatists" decide to stage provocations or, even more so, "go beyond the red line", Beijing will not be alarmed - they will expect the most "decisive measures" in response. So, in fact, we talked ... One might think that China does not know for certain how the Americans are pumping up Taiwan with weapons and what advances are being given to its leadership regarding "guarantees of protection in the event of open Chinese aggression"? Sooner or later, it won't get you any good.

Who does the time work for?

By the way, the "Taiwan question" is truly the ideal embodiment of the multifaceted nature of most of the key conflicts in US-China relations. Yes, here, of course, ideology is first of all - China does not need a "clone" that denies its socio-political structure, and the United States cannot allow the "democracy" fostered and nurtured by them to perish before their very eyes. The strategic aspect is that Beijing does not "smile" at all that Taiwan has a certain military potential that can be turned against it at any moment. The Taiwanese army, despite all the supplies from the bins of the American military-industrial complex, is unlikely to be able to seriously oppose the PLA, but it will be able to “bleed” it. Who would like this? For the United States, the refusal of military support for the island, its surrender to the Chinese, in fact, will mean, if not a complete collapse, then a significant weakening of all the alliances that Washington has been building with such difficulty for decades in Southeast Asia. After the Afghan fiasco, this will become the final destruction of the image of the "world hegemon" and "the most reliable ally" on the planet, which, frankly, is already bursting at all the seams. Well, and finally, a purely economic aspect, and one that has a very cunning background.

To paraphrase the Soviet classic, "we say: Taiwan, we mean semiconductors." It so happened that almost the lion's share of the world production of these tiny and absolutely irreplaceable today in all spheres of human life, electronic microchips is concentrated on the island that serves as a "bone of contention" for Beijing and Washington. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, UMC, ProMOS, Winbond - without the products of these Taiwanese manufacturers, too many factories will arise in both China and the United States. Full control over an island means control over them.

Having given it to the Celestial Empire, the United States risks in the very near future to find itself in the role of humiliated petitioners who can be "educated" by simply cutting off the supply of super important components. To our great regret, it is the awareness of this prospect, and not touching concern for the "democratic choice of the Taiwanese people" that can push the United States to a desperate attempt to "continue politics (or, if you like, the economy) by other means." Recently, the leading Western media (and the American ones in the first place) have been savoring the possible options for an armed American-Chinese conflict over Taiwan. Vaughn, the world famous news agency Reuters "nawanged" them not so long ago, as many as six pieces. True, it should be noted that within the framework of practically any of them, events do not unfold in favor of Taiwan and its overseas "defenders" and "allies."

I must say that the Pentagon adheres to a similar view of things, although they are still trying to cheer up "in public." The same Philip Davidson, who heads the Indo-Pacific Command of the US Army, frankly admits: if the Chinese try to “take Taiwan by force,” the Pentagon shouldn't even twitch - nothing good will come of it anyway. True, Davidson paints this as a prospect for the "next five years", but more objective analysts say that today an attempt at military confrontation with China is likely to have very dire consequences for the Americans. The Chinese comrades, in turn, are demonstratively building models of US Navy aircraft carriers in the desert, thereby showing that they do not have the slightest awe in front of them, considering them exclusively as very large and, therefore, convenient targets.

However, Beijing is likely to make every effort to ensure that Taiwan went to it without firing a single shot. Who in their right mind would expose valuable assets to the danger of damage and destruction? But as for the fundamental reasons why China and the United States will remain bitter adversaries, they will definitely not go anywhere. In his speech during the summit with the head of the White House, Xi Jinping very clearly formulated three principles, following which countries could build at least a semblance of normal relations. The first of these the leader of the Celestial Empire sees not just "mutual respect" of the parties, but also the fact that they should treat each other "as equals." "Respect each other's differences" and the rights of each state to develop as it sees fit. Is something similar possible with the United States, and absolutely regardless of which party will have a majority in Congress and what the name and party affiliation of the local president will be? Never in my life ... By the way, after hearing the wonderful words of Chairman Xi, Mr. Biden immediately started a hurdy-gurdy about Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang. That is, he got into the purely internal affairs of the Celestial Empire. That's all "mutual respect".

It only remains to note that for Russia this state of affairs, speaking quite frankly, is perhaps the most optimal and acceptable. Real reconciliation between Washington and Beijing (and, even more so, their close cooperation) can bring nothing good to our country a priori. There were, you know, precedents in history. No, we also do not need a military conflict in the Pacific, especially with the use of nuclear weapons. However, it should be remembered that the normalization of US-Chinese relations will mean not only a string of LNG and oil tankers that will reach from the United States to the shores of the Middle Kingdom, but also the fact that Washington will have “free hands” to the maximum for confrontation specifically with our country. No, let it be better to "compete" so that there are no forces and resources left for everything else.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 17 November 2021 10: 42
    In a couple of years, Taiwan itself will join China. Under Trump, this could have happened later.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 17 November 2021 17: 32
      China (Xi), nosebleed, Taiwan must be taken before the summer (the edge is mid-summer).
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 November 2021 10: 47
    The media are worried.
    The meeting passed without tension, what if Taiwan and China are peacefully settled?

    How, then, is the expected Blood?

    I don’t know how it is now, but during the past "aggravation" Russian-speaking people wrote there about a calm situation.
    Chinese / Taiwanese calmly visit each other, get married, exchange police information, etc.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 17 November 2021 13: 35
    Different social systems predetermine competition that turns into confrontation
    The basis for the success of the PRC is the political party and the dictatorship of the proletariat of the Communist Party of China - the backbone, breaking which imperialism will subjugate the whole world. Therefore, the United States reasonably identified the PRC as enemy number 1, and directed the main blow at discrediting the CPC of the PRC.
    The US policy is aimed at curbing the development of the PRC, elements of which are opposition to the unification of China, the disputes over the Xisha and Nansha Islands, the Aukus and Quad military blocs, the supply of weapons and visits to Taiwan by influential S Shasian political managers, the attacks of “human rights defenders” and the media on the XUAR Tibet and Hong Kong, provoking a conflict with India, attempts to drive a wedge into relations between the PRC and the Russian Federation, the EU, ASEAN, the APCTP, the RCEP, the SCO, accusations of territorial claims, a military build-up, the threat to world transport communications, currency manipulation, industrial and scientific espionage, unfair competition, political and economic enslavement of other state institutions, etc., etc.
    The 10th Plenary Session of the XNUMXth CPC Central Committee actually identified XNUMX items on the agenda of the upcoming Congress of the Communist Party, the main one of which was the steadfastness of the course towards building Socialism under the leadership of the Communist Party and remembering the interests of the whole world.
    Real reconciliation between Washington and Beijing is impossible due to different social systems, goals and objectives of the ruling classes, which in no way excludes mutually beneficial cooperation, which is in the interests of both parties and the whole world, including the Russian Federation, the problem of which is the uncertainty of Vladimir Putin's class position, which ultimately devalues ​​all of his enormous merits in the present and dooms the Russian Federation to the role of the neo-colonial periphery of imperialism in the future.
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 17 November 2021 17: 28
    Real reconciliation between Washington and Beijing (and, even more so, their close cooperation) can bring nothing good to our country a priori.

    There will be no real reconciliation between the United States and China (as well as with Russia) in the near future. The United States does not understand that it is at a dead end (the end of the economic model) and thinks that by squeezing someone's resources, it will get out of the situation. Although this will only give a temporary respite.
    Therefore, with China, they are now sharing the fat from the chain of transactions of the process of manufacturing and selling goods for the United States. Judging by the post-summit rhetoric, they did not agree.
    The United States and we are preparing to rob once again. This is a vote in the State Duma on raising the NWF liquidity threshold and the increase in the Central Bank's refinancing rate announced by Nabiullina. According to rumors, she was going to drop the ruble exchange rate again (as in 2014), but she (in our country) was promised trouble. And she is looking for other options for paying tribute from the Russian Federation to the Fed.
    The United States does not give a damn about Taiwan, Ukraine. It's just that they are urgently trying to grab more resources somewhere in order to plug the financial hole.
    1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 18 November 2021 00: 26
      One can feel Khazin read a lot. Hopefully not before dinner.

      Quote: boriz
      US does not realize it is stuck (end of economic model)

      And which model is replacing?

      Quote: boriz
      It's just that they are urgently trying to grab more resources somewhere in order to plug the financial hole.

      I can understand how the devaluation of the ruble can plug holes in the Russian budget, but how the fall of the ruble can plug the financial holes in the United States is definitely not clear. In addition, what kind of financial holes are such if the rather modest economy of the Russian Federation can close them by devaluing the ruble?
      PS Yo-mine, we have already discussed Khazin with you. You are his fan. And how is Khazin, developed an alternative modern economic model?
    2. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 18 November 2021 05: 05
      Everything is correct. This nabiulin is one of the active enemies of Russia, who really harm our country. On the other hand, being in such a responsible post of this person is a compromise between two forces in the Russian state, in fact the so-called. liberals (although they are not) and, let's call them - patriots, who are also essentially far from patriotism as such. All this will continue as long as there is a quote from Jacques Sekavar: "... in the uncertainty of Vladimir Putin's class position" and it (uncertainty) will not be resolved. However, there is an interesting point here. As long as this situation persists, a war with the West is by definition impossible. There is no reason. That's when Putin V.V. will take the side of the patriots and Russia will decide to invest money in its economy and thereby become (not excluded) a competitor of the West, plus creating some kind of ideology that will captivate many (as it was under the USSR), then the West will again go to war in the face of the united Europe, the East or something else. Although, most likely they will find another traitor. History loves to repeat itself. But this does not happen and probably will not happen.
      Therefore, this Shakhipzadovna will regularly do her job, periodically and fairly criticizing uh ... patriots, but everything will be the same and the same.
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 18 November 2021 14: 33
        Quote: DV tam 25
        "... in the uncertainty of Vladimir Putin's class position" and it (uncertainty) will not be resolved. However, there is an interesting point here.

        Judging by his daughter, Vladimir Vladimirovich has long been determined.
        A talented girl, she graduated from the institute in 2011, and by 2019 she is already a member of the board of directors of Nomeko, whose investments are estimated at a billion dollars.
        No less talented is the son-in-law of our president, a citizen of the Netherlands, Jorrit Jost Faassen. In 2006, he got a job at Gazprom, and a year later took the position of Director of Business Development.
        We are all trying for the sake of our children, and it is very doubtful that the GDP will wake up tomorrow and say to the daughter, all capitalism is canceled, you are moving to the post of a senior researcher with a salary of 30 rubles, and not like now $ 000, all go, start a new one life.
        1. Fourth Offline Fourth
          Fourth (Fourth) 18 November 2021 20: 05

          Rembover, your link says about alleged the eldest daughter of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

          1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
            Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 18 November 2021 22: 49
            Oh, Putinophiles are so rare on this site. I thought they had completely disappeared, it's time to put them in the Red Book.
            Understandably, the president can be, paranoia is the cost of his former profession, so to speak, professional transformation. But you are not from the special services, what do you suppose?

            1. Fourth Offline Fourth
              Fourth (Fourth) 18 November 2021 23: 12
              Instead of resenting Rembover, try not to lie.
              1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
                Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 19 November 2021 11: 43
                What makes you think that I am offended?

                Quote: Fourth
                Rembover, try not to lie.

                Decent people usually argue such a statement with links to sources. You cannot substantiate your statement, can you? If you can’t, then you, how to put it censorship, let it be empty talkers.
                1. Fourth Offline Fourth
                  Fourth (Fourth) 19 November 2021 16: 22
                  Quote: Oleg Rambover
                  Decent people usually argue such a statement with links to sources.

                  Rembover, I will wait when you find a convincing link that Maria Vorontsova is the daughter of Vladimir Vladimirovich.

                  You wrote it:

                  Quote: Oleg Rambover
                  Judging by his daughter, Vladimir Vladimirovich has long been determined.
  5. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 17 November 2021 23: 48
    which has a great variety of components - from ideological

    What kind of ideological confrontation can we talk about if the CCP declared the construction of socialism, but built wild capitalism (such as the West passed a hundred years ago) with minimal social guarantees. The Chinese comrades do not form a universal ideology and do not try to export it. Their economic success is directly related to the liberalization of the Chinese economy along Western lines in close cooperation with the same West. Plus urbanization and industrialization, when the peasants abandoning the plow stand to the conveyor belt, GDP soars to the skies. But this source of growth is not eternal.
    In short, China today is an autocratic regime with a capitalist economy (there are many similar ones on earth). China has nothing to offer the world.
  6. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 18 November 2021 00: 12
    Empty results of the summit of the leaders of China and the United States: for whom is time working?

    - What can you say ... - Everything has been clear to everyone for a long time ...
    - The United States fizzles out and becomes more and more weak ... - And as the apotheosis of this - they elect their presidents - more and more worthless ... - And Biden (and before that - Trump) is a vivid example of this ...
    - What "summits" can be for the United States today ??? - Or maybe Biden should have offered Chinese Xi - in general - a joint walking cruise around the world - with wives and children, and so on ...
    - Yes - an old man - this is an old man ...
    - Another American president would long ago have convened a meeting of all the "partnership states" of the Pacific region (basin) - and of course - Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, and so on; and they would also call India (and even Vietnam and others) and "representatives of Taiwan" - of course, and so on ... - All those who not only "do not like" China; but they just understand that China is their very "quick death" ... - And, having enlisted the support of this "partnership" - they would simply land their troops in Taiwan (NATO contingent) ... - Yes, that's right ... - Yes, there is a risk - and there is always a risk in everything ... - And then even Japan would agree to participate ...
    - And what would have happened ??? - Yes, nothing ... - Well, the UN Assembly would urgently meet ... - Well, they would "bleat about", "and discuss" and "make a decision" and so on ... - In short, waste time wasted. .. - And Russia, of course, would express "its deep concern"; yes, it might even "openly condemn" the actions of the Americans ... - But everything would hang in the air ... - And China would not dare to start "something military" - especially since everything would be at an urgent request the Taiwanese themselves - a request to "protect them from China" ... - And Taiwan, at the same time - really - publicly to the whole world would declare this ... - Taiwan has good reasons for this. , if China swallows Taiwan - then Taiwan will have to (roughly speaking) - feed all of China ... - And what - Taiwan "without China" - life is bad, or what ???
    - So - the Americans must first "replace" their president; and then try to solve global issues ...