A month later, on December 16, six months will expire from the day of the first and so far the only one-to-one meeting of the leaders of the United States and the Russian Federation at the top, which took place on June 16 this year in Geneva. Everyone then wondered what Putin and Biden had agreed on? Nobody knew that. It was only known that the leaders of the two countries took a six-month time-out for harsh gestures towards each other.
And now, the half-year lull is coming to an end and a configuration is already clearly emerging, which for the coming decades will become something like Yalta-1945 for the rest of the world. It is a very clear medical fact that the unipolar world, in which the United States ruled uncontrollably, is over. Moreover, it ended in 2018, simultaneously with the famous cartoons produced by Soyuzoboronmultfilm produced by the GDP of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. True, it took the States three years to realize this fact and verify the promising types of weapons declared by the Russian Federation. But the world did not become bipolar after that either. Just as it is impossible to enter the same river twice, so, alas, it is impossible to return to the times of the USSR. In the 21st century, the States, to their surprise, discovered in the world around them the presence of the Chinese factor, and with it the presence of a third force, and equal to them in economic power. And now the game between the United States and China is only for who will drag Moscow to his side. Putin has a win-win position in this situation - the golden share is in the hands of the Kremlin.
It can be assumed that as the first concession to Moscow for the possibility of persuading it in his direction, Biden put on the table permission to complete the SP-2. It would be foolish for the Kremlin to refuse this proposal. But for all the murderousness of this trump card, it is worth recognizing that the States would not be the States if they did not try to sell us what they themselves did not need, and which they themselves could no longer influence. Yes, Washington could still slow down the certification of the SP-2, but he could no longer stop its construction with all his desire. So why not try to sell this played card a second time? Which is what Biden tried to do in Geneva. The paradox of the situation is that by that time Moscow had already matured its own counterplan, according to which the speedy launch of the SP-2 was not included there. Yes, it was a tactical, but not a strategic task.
The strategic task was to force the EU countries to abandon gas purchases on the swap market and force them to switch to long-term contracts with Gazprom, thereby putting the European Commission in front of the need to revise the norms of the gas directive of the Third Energy Package. How brilliantly the Kremlin implemented this plan, we can all see in real time right now. The non-working SP-2 already brings in more income than the working one, keeping the prices at the gas swap hubs at an unacceptably high level for Europe. So why rush things and shoot yourself in the foot? The best, as you know, is the enemy of the good! Old Miller never suffered from self-mutilation mania. I don’t want to repeat myself, I have already written about the Kremlin’s cunning plan in more detail. earlier (I strongly recommend that you familiarize yourself, at least diagonally).
However, all this does not exclude an agreement between Biden and Putin on this score. After all, this plan could take place only in the absence of US LNG supplies to the European gas market over the past nine months, which created a gas shortage there, which Gazprom could but did not consider necessary to close. At the same time, the United States had a reinforced concrete excuse. I mean the replicated statement of the senior adviser to the US State Department on energy security Amos Hochstein that the US authorities have no right to dictate to private business where to export their products. I hope that all adult people have gathered here who understand that when it is really necessary, the US authorities can convey their message to any private businessmen and popularly explain to them what troubles they may have if they do not take into account the wishes of these very US authorities. Apparently, this time there was no such task. As a result, this fall gas prices in Europe have broken through the ceiling and made all the snickering European inhabitants to know what energy poverty is. And it is not yet true winter has come to the European continent.
Hello new tripolar world
Well, we will talk separately about Santa Claus and his service in the ranks of the RF Armed Forces, but for now I would like to finish the conversation about the tripolar world. How much you can trust him, Biden showed on September 15, 2021, when, unexpectedly for many, he revealed AUKUS to the world (three months have not passed since the Geneva summit, and here you are!). The disappointment of Paris over the formation of a trilateral Indo-Pacific defense alliance, where he was not invited, we could all watch live on the air, literally without leaving the TV, but the world saw the disappointment of Beijing only a month and a half later, on October 30, when the leader of the Celestial Empire did not come to the long-awaited G-20 summit in Rome, postponed from last year due to the coronavirus. Vladimir Putin did not come there either. Both confined themselves to foreign ministers. Draw your own conclusions, as they also simultaneously ignored Biden's long-cherished COP26 climate summit, which recently ended in Glasgow.
Biden regarded this fact as a personal grievance. This is not why he met with Putin in Geneva, so that he was so sneaky about him with his most important idea of transforming the world through a green transition and penalties for air pollution (the so-called carbon tax). The visit of CIA Director William Burns to Moscow, which became the fourth trip of a high-ranking official of the US administration to the capital since the Geneva meeting, and his meeting with the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev and Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin could not change anything. As nothing changed, Victoria Nuland's visit to Moscow, which took place a crescent earlier, on October 11-13. The train of US-Russian relations is still standing on the side track without a locomotive, and it is not a fact that Biden will be able to get it out of there. I think that for this gingerbread should be sweeter than SP-2 and even sweeter than Ukraine, which is also a played card. How Putin can force her to peace without the use of force, solely by economic methods, is also discussed in the section about Santa Claus.
End of the project "Chimerica"
For now, let's finish with the US-China relationship. Arriving at the Oval Office in January 2021, Biden, to the surprise of many, continued Trump's winding down of the Chimerica project. And there is absolutely nothing to be surprised at. Not because of great love and certainly not because of great respect for his predecessor, Biden had to continue the business he had begun. Forced him to this, namely the withdrawal of American production from China, a cruel necessity. And the name of this necessity is the appearance of the second golden billion to the world. The existence of the first golden billion, which, in addition to the States itself, also included the large economies of Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan, consuming basic natural resources and thus having higher living standards, was quite satisfactory for Washington. But the appearance of the second golden billion (Chinese), which by its appearance could deprive the first billion of access to the feeding trough, could not be arranged by the States. Therefore, Mad Cowboy began his fight with the Chinese Dragon in 2017, and Sleepy Joe continued it.
All the time before that, they tried hard to convince us that the mathematical model of a zero-sum game does not work in the world economy (this term from game theory means that the win of one player automatically means the loss of another). They say that the world is not a closed, but an open system. Biden, in general, tried to sniff everyone in the idea that everyone benefits from globalization. But in the first quarter of the 21st century, it became finally clear that all this is a big myth, and Biden is simply bluffing, only the States and their satellites benefit from globalization, and the world lives according to the zero-sum game model, which is why the victory of the States promises an automatic loss everyone else who was unlucky enough to be born in the countries of the first golden billion. And that is why Biden is now trying to transplant the world to a new fake project that promises benefits only to this billion, I mean the climatic roundabouts around the green transition and the carbon tax.
In the Celestial Empire, they have long understood that Bolivar will not survive for two, and it is necessary to gnaw out its place in the sun on the globe, therefore, as the economy grows, they are rapidly strengthening their defenses. But so far, without the help of the Russian Federation, they cannot defeat the States in military terms. Therefore, Beijing is no less interested in the Kremlin than Washington. Washington, however, belatedly, but nevertheless realized that the planet would no longer feed two golden billions (there simply would not be enough natural resources), and an increase in the standard of living of a billion Chinese would automatically lead to a deterioration in the standard of living of the average American. The Americans could no longer agree to this, so all efforts were thrown to ensure that China slowed down the pace of its economic development, from 7-8% growth to at least 2-3%.
Therefore, the project "Chimerica", leaning against the conditional Chinese birch, ordered to live a long time (in other words, "gave an oak"), and production from China began to massively disperse to other countries of the region - to Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and even in Sri Lanka. The trend started in the 80s of the last century for political and the economic synthesis of the United States and China, called Chimerica, having exhausted itself, came to its logical conclusion. The idea itself was not so bad (and both sides benefited from it), when the States, using cheap labor, located their production in China (you all remember what the city of Detroit motors turned into after that), produced there goods that were then sold in the American consumer market (fortunately, logistics and distance between countries allowed this), and the Chinese invested the profits from this in the Treasury obligations of the US Treasury (the so-called Treasuries). Such a beautiful self-contained model - American investments were invested in the Chinese economy, and the profits received by the Chinese were invested in American securities, allowing the United States to increase its budget deficit, and, using the low discount rate of the FRS, service its national debt, providing its citizens with a high standard of living. In a warm bath were also those who fed from the American hand, being in the ranks of the golden billion, swaying on the waves of the financial bubble inflated by the States (in 2008 it burst, then it was patched up and inflated again, but now, when it bursts, it will flood everyone, who will not have time to get rid of the American reserve currency in time).
I must admit that everything comes to an end. In 2017, the American financial fairy tale came to an end. During this time, the United States increased its national debt almost 30 times (from 909 billion in 1980 to almost $ 29 trillion at the moment), and the PRC became America's largest foreign creditor ($ 1,139 trillion, or 18,37% of all foreign debts USA). What happens if they immediately want to get rid of them? That's right, the dollar will collapse. God forbid you to be at this moment in his way. Anticipating this, Putin has already thrown off all American treasuries from the reserves of the Central Bank (these securities have never had a high yield, and soon they will become a toxic asset altogether). And the States know this and are doing everything in order to slow down this process. If economic measures do not help, they will easily resort to the military (do you think AUKUS just appeared like that?), The ring around China is shrinking, because it has already begun to fill up the whole world with its goods and has not limited itself to the production of consumer goods, but has already climbed into high-tech industries, therefore, US actions are becoming more and more aggressive. You have not forgotten that only one golden billion can survive under the sun. The second has nothing to do there!
Previously, the United States and its satellites lived by robbing colonies. When the colonial system collapsed, the States launched the Chimerica project and, having rebooted, again found themselves on horseback. Then the collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist camp successfully arrived, and they began to successfully master the liberated markets of the socialist countries, and then even the former Soviet republics. All this delayed the end of the States and the collective West that had joined them, and allowed their population to actually live in debt, paying for a beautiful life with worthless American candy wrappers. But, as they say, everything comes to an end, and how much rope does not twist ... (then you know). There are no more free markets, and the lack of natural resources is forcing the United States to resort to extreme measures. If Biden fails to transplant the world to green energy and force the owners of these resources (in particular, the hydrocarbons needed to generate electricity), to pay the carbon tax (supposedly for air pollution and thermal effect), then he will easily switch from saber-rattling to its use and woe to those countries that cannot defend themselves. China, which does not have its own natural resources and is completely dependent on their supply by sea, will be the first to know. Only an alliance with the Russian Federation can save him from this fate.
But until the moment X is still far away. Minimum 10-15 years. While Biden is counting on the "green stuff", the military scenario is not activated. Therefore, Beijing can sleep well for now, the Olympics there in February 2022 will definitely pass without incidents. To implement Biden's "green plan", he needs to bring the cost of gas and coal power generation to the cost of renewable energy sources (renewable energy sources). So far, everything is going according to his plan. But this plan does not suit Putin at all, who in this case risks losing the sales markets for his hydrocarbons. How can Biden get between Scylla Putin and Charybdis comrade. Si, I don’t know.
What Putin did in order to destroy Biden's "green plan" is already in the next text. It is called "Santa Claus in the service of the Russian Federation."