The European Union will thank Gazprom with an antimonopoly investigation and a fine

November 12, 2021 21

Events around the energy crisis in Europe took a detective turn. Surprisingly, they were superimposed on another interstate crisis, this time a migration crisis. The border conflict between Poland and Belarus threatens to leave the EU with an empty Yamal-Europe gas pipeline a couple of weeks before the start of the calendar winter. What is this, a banal coincidence or someone else's "cunning plan"?

Let's look at the events that happened in chronological order in order to try to discern some patterns.

So, starting in the spring of 2021, Gazprom began to implement a rather atypical strategy for it in the European market. The Russian monopolist actively used gas reserves stored in its UGS facilities in the EU, not rushing to replenish them. At the same time, despite the growing shortage of "blue fuel" in the Old World, the state-owned company was in no hurry to increase the volume of supplies in excess of those stipulated in the contracts. In other words, Gazprom duly fulfilled all of its contractual obligations to consumers, but did not provide additional volumes. Due to the resulting gas shortage, prices for it began to skyrocket, but the Russian corporation continued to pursue its unusual strategy, apparently aimed at promoting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The company did not try to skim the cream off the more expensive raw materials, and the Europeans were in no hurry to buy it, hoping that prices would soon normalize. Those who were greedy to take gas at $ 500 per thousand cubic meters in the summer, then clearly bite their elbows at a price of 1 cubic meters at $ 1 and more.

The result is natural: a real energy crisis is raging in the Old World, enterprises are closing, food, electricity, tariffs and everything related to this have risen sharply. Someone has to answer for this, but who? We will return to this question later.

Apparently, Frau Angela Merkel, the acting chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, still managed to appease President Putin. He gave the order to increase the volume of gas pumping to five Russian underground gas storage facilities in Europe: Jemgum, Katarina, Rehden and Etzel, located in Germany, and to the Austrian UGS facility Haidach. The supplies will increase through the Ukrainian GTS, but strictly within the scope of the volumes stipulated by the 5-year transit agreement, as well as through the Yamal-Europe pipeline going to Germany through Belarus and Poland.

Now let's move on to the question of who will be designated as the main culprit in the energy crisis. Naturally, Europe is not ready to admit its share of the fault in the excessive liberalization of the gas market and all kinds of obstacles posed by the Nord Stream-2 pipeline. It is most convenient to blame Gazprom for all the troubles. According to the American publication Politico, the European Commission began collecting materials for an antitrust investigation in order to establish whether the Russian state-owned company had an impact on prices for "blue fuel" in the EU. Like this. Do you remember the famous Ukrainian “promise anything, and we will hang it later”? Judicial practice shows that Gazprom usually "flies in" in European instances for huge fines. However, by all appearances, the European Commission was a little too hasty to find those to blame. Here he said his word, but not President Putin, but Lukashenko.

Fast forward to Belarus, where thousands of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa have gathered on the border with Poland and Lithuania, dreaming of illegally entering Western Europe. We have already discussed in detail how they got there, and what all this may eventually lead to. In response, Warsaw is ready to close the border with Belarus and turned to NATO for help. Some sinister movement of the military is taking place. equipment at both sides. And here President Lukashenko makes a very loud statement about the possibility of cutting off gas supplies to the EU through Belarus:

And if we close the transit through Belarus? It will not pass through Ukraine: the Russian border is closed there. There are no roads through the Baltics. If we close it for the Poles and, for example, for the Germans, what will happen then? We must not stop at nothing while defending our sovereignty and independence.

This is serious. We are talking about the very Yamal-Europe gas pipeline that supplies Germany and Poland with hydrocarbons. Its design capacity is 32,9 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and the maximum capacity is 34,7 billion. If transit is forcibly stopped not by Moscow, but by Minsk, then European UGS facilities will definitely not be filled before the onset of the winter cold, which will lead to another jump in energy prices, as well as to an increase in socio-economic tension in the EU.

Here one has to inevitably ask a question: is the threat to drain the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline a private initiative of President Lukashenko, or is it an agreed position of Moscow and Minsk, where Russia wants to demonstrate its displeasure from possible antimonopoly investigations by the European Commission? All the bigwigs in any case will fly to the "Old Man", but he has something to lose?

Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.

BoBot Robot - Free Thinking Machine

0

12 November 2021 15: 20

Do not give gas, let the migrants pass - let the Iffropters blast the belugas! And in Grodno - test firing of Iskander!
Bakht

+4

12 November 2021 15: 27

Europe is an unreliable buyer. How much can you talk about this? Deliveries only by contract and no more cubic meters. Do not fill European UGS facilities. Nothing else matters. The decisions of the European courts are optional for Russia.
As the contracts expire, do not sign new ones. Only at spot prices on the exchange. In full compliance with the norms of energy packages.
Accelerate the construction of Power of Siberia-2 (Altai gas pipeline) and redirect Yamal gas to China. The price is less, but there are less headaches (fines).
1. 123
  
  0
  
  13 November 2021 20: 45
  
  Europe is an unreliable buyer. How much can you talk about this? Deliveries only by contract and no more cubic meters. Do not fill European UGS facilities. Nothing else matters. The decisions of the European courts are optional for Russia.
  As the contracts expire, do not sign new ones. Only at spot prices on the exchange. In full compliance with the norms of energy packages.
  
  This is partly what they are trying to achieve.
  1) Who will be declared unreliable, the buyer or the seller is not so important, the bottom line is the same. Curtailment of trade.
  2) Russia does not recognize their arbitration, they are ours, as a result, economic cooperation is limited, or at least difficult.
  3) There are no long-term contracts, it is more difficult to plan the development of the industry, it is not clear how much will be needed, is it worth increasing investments in production or vice versa.
  
  You can talk for a long time about the reasons, to whom and why it is necessary.
  
  Accelerate the construction of Power of Siberia-2 (Altai gas pipeline) and redirect Yamal gas to China. The price is less, but there are less headaches (fines).
  
  They are working on it.
  
  Ulaanbaatar / MONTSAME / At a regular meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on November 10, Deputy Prime Minister S. Amarsaikhan informed about the progress of the project on the construction of the Soyuz Vostok transit gas pipeline going through Mongolia to China.
  At the moment, the route of the gas pipeline with a length of 960,5 km has been determined. Following the completion of the feasibility study by the end of this year, engineers and technicians will begin detailed design and preparatory work will be completed within two years. Construction work on the project will officially begin in 2024.
  
  https://montsame.mn/ru/read/280832
  
  As far as I understand, work on our territory will begin earlier, in my opinion, they plan to complete it in 2024. The gas pipeline's capacity is about 50 (the figure roughly coincides with the joint venture), gas will go from approximately the same fields as to Europe.
  In the meantime, the relationship between Russia and Europe is too great for sudden movements. Do not interrupt everything instantly. They will smile and poke an awl under the table.
  1. Bakht
    
    +1
    
    13 November 2021 21: 00
    
    It is not that simple. The destruction of the European economy is quite an attractive thing for the Anglo-Saxons. It is only in this context that I consider the UK's exit from the EU.
    Likewise, the United States is not against the destruction of the old NATO. The creation of a new NATO (Eastern European) led by Poland is much more promising. This will create a police cordon between Russia and Germany. It (Eastern European NATO) can include the Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine. If it works out, then the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania. Their real economic and military power is not important here. It is more important to create a barrier (iron curtain).
    In this case, SP-1 and SP-2, as well as routes through Turkey, are essential. And we need long-term contracts with Western European countries. Double-sided. No common contracts with the EU (which has been talked about recently in Brussels) can not be concluded.
    Conclusion: the collapse of the EU for the benefit of Russia. Oddly enough, this coincides with the purpose of the Anglo-Saxons. Zeroing the economies of the Intermarium countries is the most important task of Russia and Germany. But supporting the German economy is also important enough. So everyone who talks about the uselessness of "Streams", in my opinion, absolutely do not understand reality. They live in some abstract world.
    
    the relationship between Russia and Europe is too great for sudden movements.
    
    This is just for today. If Europe's economy collapses, this link will become less important. And even burdensome.
    1. 123
      
      0
      
      13 November 2021 22: 38
      
      It is not that simple. The destruction of the European economy is quite an attractive thing for the Anglo-Saxons. It is only in this context that I consider the UK's exit from the EU.
      
      And I'm not saying it's easy
      
      You can talk for a long time about the reasons, to whom and why it is necessary.
      
      I fully agree with the above arguments and the European commissioners, judging by their deeds, are more likely American civil servants recruited from local natives.
      
      Conclusion: the collapse of the EU for the benefit of Russia. Oddly enough, this coincides with the purpose of the Anglo-Saxons. Zeroing the economies of the Intermarium countries is the most important task of Russia and Germany. But supporting the German economy is also important enough. So everyone who talks about the uselessness of "Streams", in my opinion, absolutely do not understand reality. They live in some abstract world.
      
      I'm not sure about this, perhaps weakening and some decentralization are enough for us at this stage, there is no need for a complete and urgent collapse. First, the United States is interested in this and should not make it easier for them. At least this is a diversion of their resources.
      Second, individual European countries can easily become more dependent on the United States. It is a feasible task to turn the whole of Eastern Europe into Ukraine and they will not be shy. And part of the Europeans can go under the English roof, it is not worth giving them resources.
      And streams are needed as long as there is mutual dependence, the likelihood of a complete rupture of relations and exacerbation up to the war decreases, this is a stabilizing factor.
      
      This is just for today. If Europe's economy collapses, this link will become less important. And even burdensome.
      
      Rapid collapse is not interesting to us the vacuum will touch us too, we are too close to the epicenter. Diversification continues, the role of Europe in trade is falling, we are playing for time and working in this direction. Well, we do not pay attention to the teasing to immediately show who is the boss and show brutality.
      It turns out that the calls to immediately scare the missiles near Minsk, Karkas or Havana, wind the Carpathian forests on the tracks of tanks, close the borders, turn off the crane, spit in the face, fist on the table and further down the list are not in our interests. We are growing, waiting, preparing. Something like this.
  2. Bakht
    
    0
    
    13 November 2021 21: 07
    
    Not in the subject. I often re-read books that I like in some way. Now I am rereading Shambarov's "The Tsar of Terrible Russia". Especially chapters on the Livonian War. I have a persistent feeling of de ja vu. Highly recommend. Nothing has changed in 500 years.
    1. 123
      
      -1
      
      13 November 2021 22: 46
      
      Highly recommend. Nothing has changed in 500 years.
      
      And nothing will change, from a historical point of view, nothing for 500 years. The geography is the same, the players have practically not changed, the interests and aspirations have remained the same. Thanks for the hint, added to the list, I will read my hands
    2. Cyril
      
      -2
      
      14 November 2021 20: 56
      
      Especially chapters on the Livonian War. I have a persistent feeling of de ja vu.
      
      Given Russia's defeat in the Livonian War, do you expect Russia's defeat in a new fight with Europe? De ja vu same
Bakht

+4

12 November 2021 16: 27

Just yesterday I wrote

Bakht (Bakhtiyar) Yesterday, 09:09

"This is not enough": the EU assessed the injection of Russian gas into UGS
If the price of a product depends on the words of one person, then this means that there are no market relations. And there is no demand-supply relationship. There is speculation on the stock exchange. What the Europeans were warned about. But this also means that speculators can easily collapse prices before last year. 50 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Then back-up gas injection is a mistake.
I see the correct policy only in deliveries of strictly contractual volumes. What you subscribe to, you get it.
The Europeans can take this gas. There are loopholes. Let's say by court order or in debt. When you freeze, they will not really think about the consequences. The decisions of the Europeans do not differ much from the Ukrainian ones. Two of a Kind.

By a court decision, Russian gas in European storage facilities may be confiscated. Therefore, I repeat once again - pumping into UGS facilities in Europe is a risky business. It is necessary to stop the filling of these storages immediately.
1. Scharnhorst
  
  -1
  
  12 November 2021 17: 09
  
  It is necessary to stop the filling of these storages immediately.
  
  On this issue, although I agree with you, this is called "hitting the tails" only by reacting to the initiative of the enemy. I suggest that you first dunk Lukashenka's stupid cat into the toilet. The migration crisis is his fault, the result of attempts to lick the Americans. Why open visa-free travel with the pro-American regimes in the Middle East? Since his "BelAvii" closed the skies of Europe, it was not necessary to fly around Ukraine to Iraq, but to recognize the Crimea and organize flights there for its citizens. With such an ally, there is no need for other enemies!
  1. Bakht
    
    +4
    
    12 November 2021 20: 26
    
    And on this issue I no longer agree with you.
    What does Lukashenka have to do with it? Obviously, he was not the one who made the mess in the Middle East. For a long time I read a book by J. Attali. This is not an entirely simple person. He has a rather interesting biography. In 1991 he wrote the book On the Threshold of the New Millennium. I will only give you one quote
    
    In agonizing despair, deprived of all hope, the populace living on the periphery will contemplate a vivid picture of prosperity and wealth in another hemisphere. In those southern regions that are geographically close to the North, and culturally related to it, in particular Mexico, the countries of Central America and North Africa, millions of people will increasingly be exposed to the temptation of wealth, feel irritation and anger due to the inability to satisfy their constantly growing needs. Then they will begin to gradually realize that the well-being of others has been partially achieved due to the deterioration of their living conditions, as well as the predatory use of the environment. In the North, these people, deprived of their own future in the age of intensive air traffic, television communications, and absolutely impoverished people, will be cut one size fits all and regarded as an unprecedented crowd of "economic refugees" and migrants. The migration of peoples has already begun: Turks live in Berlin, Moroccans in Madrid, Indians in London, Mexicans in Los Angeles, Vietnamese in Hong Kong.
    If the North continues to show passivity and complete indifference to their plight, especially when Eastern Europe is put into the orbit of prosperity thanks to the full-fledged, large-scale aid and generosity of the West, with complete disregard for the needs of the South, then the peoples living on the periphery will inevitably revolt. , and one day they will start a war. They will try to tear down the semblance of the Berlin Wall, which the North is currently erecting to isolate itself from the South. It will be a war unprecedented in modern history, it will resemble the devastating raids of the barbarians in the XNUMXth and XNUMXth centuries, when Europe suffered a tangible defeat and plunged into such a gloomy state, which later became known as the Middle Ages.
    
    Gaddafi held back the influx of migrants from Africa. But this barrier was removed. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, all these countries were destroyed by Western reformers. And the fact that there is visa-free is no longer even a problem. Compare how many migrants enter Europe via Belarus or the Mediterranean Sea? But in the Mediterranean, migrants are rescued and transported to Spain and Italy. And through Belarus they launched a propaganda campaign. Several thousand pass through Belarus. Tens of thousands through Turkey or Italy. But the media are not interested in such comparisons.
rotkiv04

-4

12 November 2021 16: 45

Fools should be taught, although the Kremlin strategists do not benefit from anything, this is understandable, they do not pay out of their own pockets, and there is no one to ask them
gorenina91

-4

12 November 2021 17: 20

The European Union will thank Gazprom with an antimonopoly investigation and a fine

- Yes, these are just "flowers" - "berries" are yet to come ...
- Damn - well, how much I personally wrote about the "traps" into which the close-minded Gazprom got into because of the illiterate leadership and the illiterate economic policy pursued by it ... - well, here it is - the beginning of all these troubles (well, if only I to be mistaken) ... - And this is still the SP-2 has not been put into operation ... - And it is Erdogan who is still waiting and wondering how to start "pumping rights" in front of Gazprom ...
- And what a catastrophe is brewing in the east ... with the supply of Russian gas through the Power of Siberia to China ... - China, in fact - already feels itself the rightful owner of this Power of Siberia gas and the frequency and cyclical nature of Russian gas supplies ... - well, the "owner" and only ... And what will happen when Europe imposes fines and sanctions on Gazprom from all sides ... - Yes, China will completely bring down the price of the supplied Russian gas to him; when it becomes clear that Gazprom is in a "stalemate" ...
- Damn - in the West - "pipe"; and in the East - "pipe" ...
1. Monster_Fat
  
  -3
  
  13 November 2021 11: 38
  
  In fact, this is the result of the management of the comprador authorities in Russia, which can only sell resources. The "Kudrinomics" adopted in Russia as an economic model presupposes the development of only raw materials production in Russia and the withdrawal of all "earned" money to the West, for currency speculation or "burying them in money boxes." The development of production in Russia, which itself would consume gas and oil in large volumes, does not envisage "kudrinomics". Moreover, this economic policy considers one of the main tasks to be to support the country's population in terms of financial security and wages at a beggarly level, ostensibly for the attractiveness of the labor market for external investment and entrepreneurship, and therefore, the poor population, moreover specially squeezed by various restrictions, cannot to subsidize gasification or large consumption of energy resources itself, is forced to save on everything and, therefore, is not interested in "Gazprom" and other suppliers of energy resources, as an object of investment and profit. So, everything is natural - instead of the development of the domestic consumption market, all this time in Russia they have developed only external exports and made themselves completely dependent on it. So, there is nothing to blame other, "Western partners" who see all this, understand that "Gazprom" has nowhere to go and insolently, use the created situation to their advantage.
NikolayN

0

12 November 2021 20: 33

The money for the construction of sp2 has already been recaptured. You can take your time with the launch. Let them certify as much as they want. If they do not certify, it is not necessary. There is still a stock in the year. Deliver via Ukraine in full compliance with the Contract.
And there it will be seen.
1. gorenina91
  
  -4
  
  13 November 2021 04: 07
  
  The money for the construction of sp2 has already been recaptured.
  
  - Who was "recaptured" ??? - And how was "recaptured" ??? - Someone here ... here ... here - like this already earlier "mentioned" about the SP-2 and ... and there was a "repetition" ...
  - SP-2 - did not work for a day as intended; and already a heap of fines "associated with SP-2" or "in one way or another related to the construction of SP-2" and the very "fact of the existence of SP-2" ...
  - SP-2 is already being "serviced" - and it is idle ... and from this the "cost" of creating SP-2 only increases even more ... - i.e. losses have already been incurred ... - So what is the "rebound" (or recoupment) of the construction of the SP-2 ??? - Everything is exactly - "on the contrary" ...
  1. NikolayN
    
    -1
    
    28 December 2021 20: 40
    
    Check out the Gazprom report. Reprints from the Western press - they say that SP2 is a means of political pressure and pressure on the market, increasing the price of gas in Europe. Or is there something wrong? Here's just the arithmetic of 100 billion. For a year, Europe is 100 & already more expensive than 10 billion &. Operation of SP2 for a year costs 10-15 mln. &. Now tell me, what fines did we (Gazprom) pay for the construction of JV2?
    Well, really, really, this is a means of pressure on Ukraine. An economic means. They are already ready to reduce the cost of transit, but no one began to talk to them.
2. lis-ik
  
  -3
  
  13 November 2021 17: 11
  
  Quote: NikolayN
  The money for the construction of sp2 has already been recaptured. You can take your time with the launch. Let them certify as much as they want. If they do not certify, it is not necessary. There is still a stock in the year. Deliver via Ukraine in full compliance with the Contract.
  And there it will be seen.
  
  How did they beat it off? Even according to the habit of the current "authorities", to shift the costs onto the shoulders of the population of the Russian Federation, and then they will fight back for a long time.
Siegfried

+1

12 November 2021 21: 11

this is the so-called investigation and possible fines of pure show for the intra-European viewer. In such a simple way, the EU will "severely" punish the bully Gazprom (in the amount of 5% of losses due to price increases, or from Gazprom's super-profits) and loudly banging its fist on the table with pride will declare "here we have shown them, put them in their place ... Well, everyone, the topic has passed as they say, the EU is strong and united, all merry Christmas friends! ".
Gazprom will gladly pay this amount and quietly pump its bills with gas dollars.
Maaslo Sallonen

+1

13 November 2021 03: 47

Russia did not set the tone in relations. But Russia has the ability to support him. It's time to educate old Europe.
1. Oleg Bratkov
  
  +1
  
  14 November 2021 12: 10
  
  Whom to educate is up to the owners of Gazprom, not public opinion.
  However, Russia is in second place in the world in terms of gas cheapness for the population. On the first - Kazakhstan, and in all other countries of the world gas is more expensive, and sometimes much more expensive than in Russia.