"Big redistribution": should Russia start fighting for Africa?


A new "Great Redistribution" has begun in Africa. First, there was a military coup in Sudan. Now, due to internal strife, the central government in Ethiopia has reeled. All these events clearly show the influence of the United States, as well as of a number of regional players who are interested in weakening the positions of China and Russia on the "black continent." The threat is clear, but how should Beijing and Moscow react? Solve their problems separately or, on the contrary, coordinate efforts?


Today the largest investor in African the economy is precisely China. The Celestial Empire needs a constant flow of natural resources. In addition, Beijing is clearly counting on the "colonization" of an entire continent, creating an additional market for its goods there. The Chinese are building industrial parks, railways, airports, seaports, industrial enterprises. Also in recent goals, a number of large Russian oligarchs and companies, mainly with state participation, have shown interest in Africa. Such expansion could not fail to meet with a negative response from Western countries, which traditionally consider this region "their own plot". And so it began.

Sudan


As you know, the RF Ministry of Defense expected to receive its own naval base in Port Sudan, or rather, a material and technical service point. At first, the country's authorities went to meet Moscow halfway on very favorable terms, but after an explicit intervention from Washington, they began to "change their shoes." The question of the future of the PMTO is suspended in the air. But the military coup that followed in Khartoum turned it into an extremely unlikely event.

I remember reasoning we mentioned Djibouti about alternative places on the coast of the Red Sea, where the warships of the Russian Navy could be found. This extremely poor African country has made it its "trick" to provide territory for the deployment of military bases to everyone. In addition to the western ones, now the largest Chinese foreign naval base is located there simultaneously with them. Why shouldn't the RF Ministry of Defense turn its attention to Djibouti? We will come back to this issue later.

Ethiopia


Fast forward to the neighboring country, Ethiopia, where very important events are now taking place. The government army suffers one defeat after another at the hands of an alliance of opposition groups that have rallied around a region called Tygrai. This conglomerate, apparently enjoying tacit support from the West, called itself the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces (UFEFCF). already halfway to Addis Ababa.

Who needs all this?

At firstThe military coup is beneficial to the United States, which wants to deprive Beijing of its positions in Ethiopia. It is the second most populous country in Africa. The backbone of its economy is agriculture, primarily the cultivation and export of coffee. But, of course, not for the sake of roasted beans, Washington decided to cross the road to Beijing. Ethiopia's main advantage is its geographical position in the east of the continent, which opens the way to Central, South, North and West Africa. There is also one big drawback - after the war with Eritrea, Addis Ababa lost its direct access to the sea coast on the Red Sea. However, China has managed to solve this problem by building a modern electrified railroad from Ethiopia to Djibouti. This is how Djibouti reappears in our history, which, in fact, is turning into a trading gateway for the Celestial Empire on the “black continent”.

But back to Ethiopia. The PRC has already built three industrial parks in this country: Hawassa Industrial Park, Dire Dawa Industrial Park, and Mekelle Industrial Park. In total, Beijing plans to open 15 such production sites, which could turn Ethiopia into the largest assembly site for Chinese products in Africa. In addition, thanks to investments from the PRC, the Addis Ababa Bola International Airport was expanded from 6 million passengers per year to 22 million passengers, the Genale Dawa III hydroelectric power plant with a capacity of 254 MW was launched, as well as a plant for processing 1800 tons of waste per day. built in the center of the Ethiopian capital on the site of a 30-meter mountain of garbage, producing 185 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year. In addition, the state-of-the-art Addis Ababa Silk Road General Hospital opened in Addis Ababa, and Ethiopia became the first African country to have its own multispectral remote sensing microsatellite, provided by the Chinese for agriculture and climate change monitoring.

Beijing intended to gradually improve the general welfare of the Ethiopians in order to eventually obtain an "anchor" sales market in Africa, making this country a "showcase" of the achievements of the Chinese national economy.

Secondly, his neighbors from Egypt and Sudan are directly interested in the military coup in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa's flagship economic project is the giant Hydase (Revival) hydropower plant. Cairo and Khartoum are rightly afraid that the start of full operation of this dam will leave the Nile without the volume of water they need, which will lead to hunger and socio-economic problems. Control over "Hidese" means indirect control over the entire region. It is not surprising that neighbors, who do not want to fight directly with Ethiopia, support the armed opposition.

What do we have in the bottom line? Both Beijing and now Moscow have their own interests in Africa. The "Western partners" with the hands of local security officials and "rebels" began to demolish the regimes loyal to the PRC and the Russian Federation in order to expel the Chinese and Russians from the "black continent". You can leave, but you can try to stay. On the part of Russia, it is probably worth exploring the possibility of providing assistance to Addis Ababa in coordination with China and consolidating the RF Ministry of Defense in Djibouti. In what concrete form this can happen is a debatable question, and the answer will depend on the position of the leaderships of both African countries. Another option is simply not to interfere with anything, seeing how China will defend its investments on its own.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 November 2021 14: 55
    -2
    Another option is simply not to interfere with anything, seeing how China will defend its investments on its own.

    - Yes, this is exactly what you should do ... - he climbed in - let him get out of it himself ...

    - China. in life, fate is destined - to sit within the "geographical limits" of its China - and not to "climb" anywhere else ... - and China has already climbed to the moon ... - And there is always a limit to such impudence ... - This limit will be marked - with all that ending, in which all this agility and arrogance must be precisely and very rigidly suppressed ... - This ending is natural for all those who yearn for world domination ... - So ... - everything is fatal and inevitable here. ..
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 11 November 2021 10: 05
      +2
      Why, Irina, do you dislike China so much?
      In your opinion, let there, as before, the Anglo-Saxons with the French are excluded?
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 11 November 2021 10: 50
        -3
        Don't you like China so much?

        - Yes, absolutely ... - And yet ... - I am absolutely not interested in either the history or the very existence of China ... - nor the people themselves ... - Personally, I know a lot about China ... - but these " my knowledge "is absolutely indifferent and does not arouse any interest or even curiosity ... - an ordinary feeling of dislike and disgust ...
        - But this does not mean anything ... - You can not love a lot; but not in any way to influence the "process itself" and the "object itself" ... - so - this is everyone's personal business ...
        - And here there is no "pathological connotation" ... - personally I can state my position on this matter in detail and concretely and "rather neutrally" ... - And, of course - I will not do it ...
        - But what just amazes me is ... - how naive the people around are - these are the people who are "non-Chinese" ....
        - Although what can you take from the "non-Chinese humanity" ... - it cannot defeat COVID-19 ... - and what can we say about ....................
        - Personally, it seems to me that ... that ... that COVID-19 is a kind of "training" for all "non-Chinese humanity" ... - "training" how to deal with the worldwide "Chinese invasion" .... - And the fact that China itself has suddenly worn out and clinging to this "training in the fight against itself" ... - so this is the "special introductory"; which complicates this "training" as much as possible ... - Alas, but the "non-Chinese population" of our planet (especially Russia) failed miserably and did not cope with the tasks set ... - a complete fiasco ...
  2. Fuck Africa, and blacks in Russia - DO NOT START!!!!
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 10 November 2021 16: 09
    +1
    The question is not: "is it worth it"
    The news about PMCs has already been announced: They are fighting.

    Billions of oligarchs from different countries are worth risking their lives for mercenaries and "volunteers"
  4. sgrabik Offline sgrabik
    sgrabik (Sergei) 10 November 2021 16: 19
    +1
    What the hell is Africa, look what is happening on our borders, you need to pay close attention to this !!!
  5. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 10 November 2021 16: 22
    +2
    The trouble with the leadership of the USSR was that it "clung a plug into all holes", was too concerned about "promoting the world of socialism throughout the world" - saved "from colonial slavery", "arranged a happy life", built housing and factories, and showered with generous gifts , any East European, Asian, African, Afghan and other "Papuans", completely recklessly ignoring the brewing internal problems and pressing needs of their own population! request
    As a result of such an unrealistic "foreign policy of peace and friendship at the expense of the peoples of the USSR" - "tore the navel" of our Soviet Union and the "developed socialist system", deprived and doomed its own population to extinction, and the "happy socialist Papuans" immediately spread to the capitalists , easily forgetting about any gratitude and debt to "Soviet benefactors" (and then formally these Soviet debts, already "inheritors", were easily forgiven, practically "for beautiful eyes", not well, really, except for the perverted "dirty buckets" slop "on our Soviet heads from the ungrateful" civilized Young Europeans ", some simple-minded savages still have" good memories ", for example, Afghan" spirits "now" fondly remember "as" shuravi "whom they killed with sadistic pleasure - even sneered at the wounded and corpses, they "built schools and hospitals for free" in Soviet times ... in the African tribes of cannibals they still use the gift of advice skim "Kalash" during raids on neighboring villages ...)! winked
    How would the authorities of the Russian Federation not repeat the same mistakes, try, struggling with all their might, to "expand foreign policy influence" (either "purely big business-na hapok", or half-hearted, to the detriment of itself, "neo-colonialism with a human face" - up to another pro-American-pro-Chinese coup d'etat in a "sprawling country", followed by an insistent demand for the Russian Federation to get out!) to the detriment of the internal, not too favorable, state of its own economy, the quality of government and the standard of living, the well-being of its own dying population ?!
    Given the current general state of affairs and the imminent social explosion, aggravated by the "coronabesia pandemic", in my opinion, Kremlin prisoners (even simply following the instinct of self-preservation!) "limitrophes" from the "Young Europeans", a big "raw material appendage" of the West and the East!) - after all, there is a lot of pressing matters!
    And the neighboring "restless neighbors", unlike distant African countries, are always close at hand and the "calmness of our borders" and the possibility of peaceful labor of Russians for the benefit of themselves, their compatriots and their Motherland largely depend on relations with them!
    About the unresolved, very neglected, Problem with the absence of a generally accepted and generally understood Positive State Ideology, neither the President of the Russian Federation nor his "team" should forget and "let it go" - because. The "inertia of the Soviet roar" is almost over, and then the "trailer" will have to be pushed to the accompaniment of "new songs" that have yet to be invented and taught by all the multinational "Russkiy Mir" if we want our common Russian Fatherland to exist for centuries, and not to be disintegrated soon into the smallest fragments (what is "we are in heaven, and they are in hell!" , on occasion, "thrown into the crowd"!)!
    Internal problems will be successfully resolved, the economy and, in general, the country will be strengthened, prosperous, inspired by a common Idea and a single multinational people, then external affairs will cope!
    And with weakness and a gnawing wormhole inside, no long-term external influence, especially in the role of neo-colonialists, will work!
    The Internal Fortress of the Organism of the State is projected outside and felt by everyone — it inspires respect for friends and foes, but NOT the other way around — rulers who are too enthusiastic, preoccupied with external "representative tinsel" !
    Russia has enough natural resources and territories, to take care of their development and preservation-augmentation of the main capital of any country-people inhabiting it !!!
    IMHO
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 November 2021 17: 03
    +3
    Should Russia Start Fighting for Africa?

    What weapon?
    Raw materials and semi-finished products are not in demand in African state institutions, and consumer goods, high-tech industries and investment projects limit the purchasing power of the former metropolises. The economy of the Russian Federation is several times inferior to the PRC, US, and ES.
    Against the background of colonialism, the ideology of the USSR was in demand and attractive all over the world, but what is the ideology of the Russian Federation? Whom does she attract?
    The only thing that the Russian Federation can offer to African state institutions is small arms and ammunition for them, to oil sheikhs - weapons are more powerful and more expensive, but this will not conquer Africa.
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 10 November 2021 17: 17
    +1
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    Against the background of colonialism, the ideology of the USSR was in demand and attractive all over the world, but what is the ideology of the Russian Federation? Whom does she attract?

    The Russian Federation does not officially have a state ideology. Forbidden
    1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 November 2021 22: 51
      +3
      And why? Because after Yeltsin's coup d'état and the restoration of capitalism, the proletariat was declassified, a class of large owners-oligarchs was created, and society was divided into oppressors and those who were working for them.
      Ideology always bears a class character, and the recognition of this fact leads to a class struggle with all the possible consequences of this.
      VVPutin is an opponent of revolutionary changes and is guided by the idea of ​​AI Solzhenitsyn - “People's Savings”, which “obscures” the class nature of relations.
      In fact, Vladimir Putin is pursuing the Lenin New Economic Policy of state capitalism - without breaking the capitalist structure that had developed before his arrival, he nationalized many strategic industries and enterprises, created state monopolies in strategic industries - RosKosmos, RosAtom, RosNano, RAO UES, Russian Railways , Gazprom, including the media, education and medicine, through which the entire economy and social life of the state is managed and regulated, large capital is regulated and subordinated to the interests of the state through monetary policy, the system of taxation, pricing, etc., etc. ...
      Without reliance on the party and the dictatorship of the proletariat as in the PRC, such an ambiguous policy lays a time bomb for the future. In one way or another, big capital will sooner or later get out of the control of the state, perhaps even in a legitimate way through the purchase of a political party and not just one, and its intra-class contradictions were identified even during the reign of Yeltsyn - the Far Eastern and Ural republics, the Kaliningrad province and Chechnya
      1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 November 2021 08: 01
        +3
        VVPutin is an opponent of revolutionary changes and is guided by the idea of ​​AI Solzhenitsyn - “People's Savings”, which “obscures” the class nature of relations.

        Oh, you shouldn't have remembered Solzhenitsyn. If Putin is really guided by his "ideas", then we are khan.
  8. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 November 2021 17: 28
    -1
    "Big redistribution": should Russia start fighting for Africa?

    - With the same success, it is time for the entire world community to start ... to start fighting for Russia (as well as for Africa); to get a reliable source of raw materials ...
    - And in the same way try to "recapture" Russia from China ...
    - You can even paraphrase the saying "Not everything for the cat is Shrovetide" - in "Not everything for China is Shrovetide" ... - So China has made good use of Russia for free ... - it's time and honor to know ...
    - It's time for Russia to reconsider all these "Russian-Chinese partnerships" and present its new demands to China ...
    - In other words, it's time for Russia to stop being a reality for China with Africa ...
  9. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 10 November 2021 21: 22
    -3
    Fighting for Africa means investing money and the lives of our citizens there. We must fight at home and for our people! We are fighting over there in Syria, but things are still there. No end, no edge in sight!
  10. radvas Offline radvas
    radvas (Igor) 11 November 2021 00: 58
    0
    How things are changing! Nowadays, Russia is in the wings of the once "younger brother" (the Chinese and the Russian are brothers forever!) Note, Socialist China. Thanks to the "saints of the nineties," damn them! Interestingly, Russia will rise forever? After all, GDP is not eternal ...