China's economy prepares for a "hard landing"


Until recently, Chinese economy grew at a faster pace. But some crisis phenomena observed in a number of sectors of the Chinese economy make one think about the gloomy prospects for the development of the PRC. Experts from the American Foreign Affairs magazine believe that the country's economy will continue to grow for several more years, then China will face a "hard landing."


So, stagnation can hit the real estate market. Some large and small developers have run out of liquidity to pay their bills, exposing the systemic risks of ignoring undisciplined real estate investments and causing concern in bond markets within China and abroad. Experts speak with dismay about the “bubble” in the Chinese real estate market, which results in the ruin of large firms. As an example, FA cites the largest Chinese developer Evergrande, which was unable to pay off its debts and finish the construction of apartments already sold to customers. Overall, property sales in China in September were the lowest since 2014.

At the same time, the relationship between the authorities and private Chinese companies is not easy. In July of this year, Beijing launched a crackdown on a number of technology firms. Party officials are unhappy with the growing income gap between rich and poor Chinese, the magnitude of which has begun to threaten social stability. In addition, the growing influence of private firms is weakening the power of the state and the Chinese Communist Party.

The economic troubles are exacerbated by the energy crisis, stemming in part from the reluctance of utility companies to comply with instructions from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which has demanded the sale of coal at fixed prices. All this is superimposed on the global energy crisis caused by the growth in demand and prices for energy resources in connection with the exit from the pandemic and the lack of gas and coal.

Energy shortages are curtailing industrial production even in China's thriving export industries, which today are the main bright spot for the Chinese economy, including smartphone and car manufacturers. In September, residents of even China's wealthiest areas, such as Beijing, suffered power outages. All this is forcing analysts to lower their estimates of China's economic growth for this and next years.
  • Photos used: https://www.maxpixel.net/
9 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 5 November 2021 18: 11
    -9
    - Ha, yes, in China, the NEP period just dragged on ...
    - China is somewhere like Belarus, which all the time tries to sit on several chairs ... - and this is quite possible when there is a state nearby, which is always ready to sacrifice its own well-being, its own resources, its own most advanced ideas and the latest technical achievements .. ..
    - What is typical - by the irony of fate, this state is Russia ... - This is clearly the fate of Russia ... - all the best and for nothing ... - give it to your neighbors ... - this especially concerns China ... - that's really who "sucked in" everything (and continues) ... - like a giant tick ...

    The economic troubles are exacerbated by the energy crisis, stemming in part from the reluctance of utility companies to comply with instructions from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which has demanded the sale of coal at fixed prices. All this is superimposed on the global energy crisis caused by the growth in demand and prices for energy resources in connection with the exit from the pandemic and the lack of gas and coal. Energy shortages are curtailing industrial production even in China's thriving export industries, which are now the main bright spot for the Chinese economy, including smartphone and car manufacturers. In September, residents of even China's wealthiest areas, such as Beijing, suffered power outages. All this is forcing analysts to lower their estimates of China's economic growth for this and next years.

    - Oh well ... - Personally, I am absolutely sure that ... that ... that a "friendly visit" of Chinese Xi to Moscow will take place very soon (or maybe our guarantor will fly to Beijing); after which ... - Russia will "switch" so much electricity to China that in every Chinese village, even at night it will become as light as day ... - With oil and gas (very cheap), Russia already floods China - already up to its ears (also as well as Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan) ... - while China has coal and its own bulk ... - China has its own - both oil and gas ... - but China does not use them very much ...
    - So talking about the energy crisis in China is just ridiculous ... - Today, China is simply flooded with oil and gas "to capacity" ...

    At the same time, the relationship between the authorities and private Chinese companies is not easy. In July of this year, Beijing launched a crackdown on a number of technology firms. Party officials are unhappy with the growing income gap between rich and poor Chinese, the magnitude of which has begun to threaten social stability. In addition, the growing influence of private firms is weakening the power of the state and the Chinese Communist Party.

    - Yes ... - Exactly ... - So China decided to "shake" its Nepmen and "call them to order" ... - And what else can you "shake" them, except to deprive them of electricity, gas and limiting the supply of water ... - Well, don't repeat the "events on Tiananmen Square in 1989" ... - Although China can easily "repeat" this too ...
    - So - while Russia exists; from which everything "necessary" can be taken simply unlimited - and everything is almost for nothing ... - China can not be afraid of anything ...
  2. greenchelman Offline greenchelman
    greenchelman (Grigory Tarasenko) 5 November 2021 18: 49
    +3
    If the Americans talk about China's economic problems, about Chinese "bubbles" and other difficulties, then Beijing will be doing well for the next five years, because the PRC is the main competitor of the United States. But how Washington will spend this five-year plan is a question.
  3. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 November 2021 19: 59
    0
    Ha.

    the country's economy will continue to grow for several more years, then ..

    a typical Khoja-Nasredin story ...

    others, on the contrary, give a couple of years to overcome the current logistical difficulties for China, and then it will explode even more ...
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 5 November 2021 23: 22
    +1
    Not a single number in confirmation. Speculation at the level of Aunt May and her “highly likely”, applicable to any event and government education.
    The PRC is the locomotive of the world economy, and if the world's largest economy falls by one percent, then the world economy will fall by ten. Who in this situation will have a hard landing?
  5. Gosha Smirnov Offline Gosha Smirnov
    Gosha Smirnov (Smirnov) 6 November 2021 02: 11
    0
    The United States and China are two sides of the same coin. Both there and there the same problem - approximately the same, at a level somewhere in relation to GDP, at 20-25% artificial stimulation of demand and injecting money. How they will get out of the situation is completely incomprehensible. No one has a specific model. The United States is going through the increased inflation of the dollar, and China is trying to shove "extra" money around the world, to stimulate domestic demand even more, which is not very successful, and the seizure of Taiwan is very likely in the next six months.
  6. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 6 November 2021 20: 01
    +1
    China exhausting the source of its growth (extensive), a slowdown in China is inevitable. Whether China will be able to find new sources of growth is a big question, the USSR could not.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 6 November 2021 21: 32
      -1
      Quote: Oleg Rambover
      China is exhausting (is it?) The source of its growth (extensive), a slowdown in China is inevitable.

      Oleg, what is the Chinese extensive source of growth? Specifically, please. I want to check your statement. smile
      1. Tourist Offline Tourist
        Tourist (tourist) 7 November 2021 12: 18
        0
        the Americans transferred production to China to use its cheap slave power (they arranged for themselves cheap goods), and they also developed China in defiance of the USSR (look at the Damansky, Chinese aid to the Afghan rebels to fight the USSR). Now incomes in China have grown, China itself is withdrawing some of its industries, for example, to Vietnam.
        1. isofat Offline isofat
          isofat (isofat) 7 November 2021 13: 11
          -2
          Did Oleg tell you that the Anglo-Saxons are friends to the Chinese? laughing