Multi-part political a thriller titled "The EU Cannot Deal with Itself and Plunges Its Countries into Chaos" has been on the tapes of all world news agencies for several months now. The energy crisis, the "Polish question", attempts to strengthen centralization, combined by Brussels with a reluctance to take responsibility - all this forms a definite picture of what is happening in Europe. And, as in any exciting series, it has its own artists: officials and politicians, as well as its own stage - the geopolitical arena, and of course, the director, who, apparently, is located overseas. In general, all the components of a successful show are evident.
Although in reality there is no longer any doubt that this is the largest crisis that Brussels has faced in the entire history of a united Europe. As well as the fact that even his highest ranks have not the slightest idea how it will all end. And the choice here is almost like a well-known joke - between the registry office and the prison. The European Union will either finally "cross" all its states with each other, having achieved the formation of a structure that even remotely resembles a single state, or it will end up very sadly - so that some of its current members will become places for Brussels, albeit not so, but still very remote. In any case, they are definitely not members of the European Union. And the first candidate for leaving the EU already exists - this is Poland.
Polexit and its financial prerequisites
It seems that somewhere we have already seen it all. Another country is on the verge of leaving the EU. Another neologism appears in the lexicon of politicians and journalists. "Polekzit" is the name of a possible withdrawal of Poland from the European Union; today, from the speculative reasoning of Polish Eurosceptics, it becomes a very real prospect. And despite all the assurances of the official Warsaw that the country does not seek to leave the EU, it is obvious that its policy is leading to this. The intensity of passions has already reached the point that for the first time in history the Brussels nomenclature is threatening one of its countries with forcible expulsion from the Union. And you shouldn't take this solely as an emotional statement designed to rein in the rebellious Polish leadership.
Regarding Polexit, one more important point should be noted. Warsaw, as the largest recipient of the European budget, costs the EU more than any other European country. At the same time, Poland receives, as you might guess, much more than it gives. At the same time, with Britain's secession from the Union, Brussels lost one of its largest financial donors. According to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, as a result of "Brexit" the total budget of the European Union will decrease by about 75 billion euros over the next seven years.
The loss of such a significant part of the budget, of course, cannot go unnoticed. Moreover, the EU not only does not seek to cut budget expenditures, but on the contrary advocates their increase. According to the climate protection program presented by the European Commission, spending on the environment in Brussels in the period up to 2030 will reach the sky-high level of one trillion euros. And this is not to mention the upcoming energy transition, the full cost of which has yet to be calculated.
In such a situation, keeping one more “mouth” in its composition, and besides, always dissatisfied with something, may be too expensive even for Brussels, which is not deprived of financial resources. Of course, additional issue is always an option, however, unlike the US, the EU simply cannot afford to print as much money as it needs to. The role of the euro in the world the economy nevertheless, it is much lower than that of the dollar, and the European currency is still very far from the dominant position of the “American”. So a sharp increase in the money supply in the case of the euro will only cause an equally sharp acceleration of inflation, which in the context of an explosive rise in energy prices can lead to a total economic collapse.
Thus, Brussels clearly has the financial prerequisites for the implementation of Polexit. As well as the political motives due to the incessant demarches of Warsaw. And in the face of a serious crisis, this may well be enough for Poland's presence in the European Union to be officially recognized as undesirable. Indeed, in fact, the only thing holding Brussels now is the fear that Poland's withdrawal will trigger a chain reaction of the disintegration of the European Union.
Factors of the disintegration of the EU
After all, it should be noted that all the conditions for the collapse of a single European statehood in the EU have already taken shape. There are crises in the economic and social spheres, the wrong decisions of the top political leadership are present in abundance, the unwillingness to adapt to the changing factors of the external environment is evident. The Brussels nomenclature is in the midst of a "perfect storm" and pretends that absolutely nothing is happening, limiting itself to lengthy statements and ostentatious business trips. And most importantly - a total reluctance to admit that the previously adopted development strategy is not only unrealizable, but also erroneous in nature.
Recently, the European Union has clearly lost some compass of decision-making. Brussels is actively "shorting", i.e. makes decisions for the short term, where it is necessary to play for the long term and, on the contrary, strives for maximum long-term planning where it is necessary to act situationally. So, instead of concluding long-term contracts for the supply of Russian natural gas with Gazprom, Brussels insisted on the introduction of a system of short-term spot contracts, which led to the emergence of the most severe European energy crisis in recent decades. At the same time, on the issue of transition to a "green economy", the EU seeks to "cut from the shoulder", setting itself plans for almost thirty years. Although it is there that a step-by-step elaboration of concepts and the most balanced adoption of each decision is required, which, in the event of an error, threatens to imbalance the entire European economy.
Obviously, the desire to enter the zenith of world fame on the shoulders of ecological populism overshadowed any sense of common sense among the European bureaucrats. As a result, instead of showing flexibility and changing plans for an energy transition in the face of an apparently impending catastrophe, the Brussels nomenklatura only shakes its head, displaying proud inflexibility. Although, even on a brief reflection, it is clear that too ambitious tasks were set to be achieved in such a short time and in the complete absence of world experience in the implementation of such projects. Moving an area of almost half a billion people entirely to green tracks and achieving zero CO2 emissions in just three decades is almost impossible. Not to mention the fact that the very concept of achieving a "zero carbon footprint", as noted by a number of researchers, is simply unrealistic, even from a theoretical point of view.
Show must go on
All that can be said when looking at how the European Union deliberately embarks on a path of self-destruction is that the show must go on. When the USSR collapsed for thirty years, which was a truly united country and the most powerful power of the 1992th century, many European politicians applauded. They applauded and thought to divide the spheres of his influence in Europe among themselves as soon as possible. The result of these reflections was the signing in XNUMX (just a year after the collapse of the USSR) of the Treaty on the European Union, also known as the Maastricht Agreement. Moreover, the countries of the former socialist bloc will be included in the new association with almost their full complement over the next two decades. Today, thirty years later, it becomes obvious that they cannot be “digested”. Attempts by Brussels to adjust them for themselves, reformat their politicians, make their citizens share the so-called "European values" are failing right before our eyes. And Poland is just a special case. The internal policy of the EU has undoubtedly collapsed in recent years.
In the same way as the external one. Indeed, the deepest problems in the energy sector are only a consequence of the unsuccessful foreign policy line pursued by the EU. The Russophobic lobby in the high offices of Brussels has put the US-imposed goal of deteriorating relations with Moscow above the interests of its own citizens. As a result, a shortage of electricity, cold and exorbitant bills for housing and communal services - this is all the European Union can offer them this winter.
Thus, today the question is not about the membership of some individual countries in the EU, but about the viability of the entire European political structure. Indeed, despite all the loud statements about the "Russian threat", many Europeans are already beginning to understand that their main enemies are in Washington and Brussels, and not in Moscow. And it doesn't matter what is to blame: malicious intent or banal stupidity. For the residents of the European Union, the current catastrophic situation will not change in any way.