A "gas" window of opportunity has opened for Russia, it would be foolish not to take advantage of it

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Let's speak frankly - the energy crisis that has gripped the world today has opened a “window of opportunity” for our country, not to use which it would be both sinful and stupid. Not we (despite the reproaches sounding from the spiteful critics) started all this, but since everything turned out the way it turned out, why not use the situation to the fullest? Specifically, in order to once and for all get rid of the attempts of our "dear partners" from the West to "pump up the rights" and try to establish their own rules where the decisive vote should remain exclusively with us. How long can you try to force Russia to share its wealth at a loss, and even on some obviously humiliating terms?

Speaking at Valdai, it was not without reason that Vladimir Putin, with frank mockery, quoted to Europeans a Russian fairy tale about an alternatively gifted wolf foolishly freezing its sensitive parts of the body in an ice-hole. Maybe they realize that the helluva lot of clever bureaucrats from Brussels with their directives, “gas packages” and “promotion of market values” are to blame for their current “awful” situation? Will they understand that business with Russia must be done, at least honestly? It is desirable - on an equal footing. Perhaps it will be so, but the path to such an obvious "enlightenment", apparently, will be long and difficult. Let's try to figure out what obstacles it faces right now and may arise in the near future.



Hochstein's paradox ...


If someone decided that the transatlantic “big brother” had really withdrawn from interference in the affairs of Europe in general and the situation on the local energy market, in particular, he was deeply mistaken. More than exhaustively this is confirmed by the recent statement of the representative of the US State Department for Energy Security Amos Hochstein. We must pay tribute to this figure - he does not suffer at all from a penchant for euphemisms and "streamlined" formulations. It "cuts the truth", completely not hiding either Washington's goals or the essence of its position. Carthage (that is - "Nord Stream-2") must be destroyed! At least - turned into nothing. Hochstein clarifies that the United States has in no way changed its "sharply negative attitude" towards the pipeline. It's just that instead of trying to stop its construction, their administration temporarily and forcedly switched to a slightly different tactic - "leveling the negative consequences" of this project. Why is that?

About this - a little below, but for now we will focus on another point. The State Department official, not in the least ashamed, again puts an ultimatum to Russia and dictates with utmost impudence what it is downright "obliged" to do. Specifically, to start pumping additional volumes of "blue fuel" directly through the Ukrainian gas transportation system to Europe as soon as possible. Only this way and nothing else! "If the Russians have gas to fill the newly completed pipeline, then they have something to load the Ukrainian GTS and other routes with!" - Hochstein, who apparently imagined himself to be a master of deduction at the level of Holmes, flutters.

What kind of "other" supply routes can we talk about? It is clear that only about those with whom Kiev sticks and sticks to us like the notorious bath leaf. The arguments of Gazprom (voiced, by the way, by Vladimir Vladimirovich) regarding the fact that the additional load in the required volumes of the GTS belonging to Ukraine, most likely, simply will not withstand and everything will only get worse, in the US, of course, they do not want to hear. They have a clear plan of action for Berlin too - the same Hochstein did not fail to voice it, and in the form of “valuable instructions” that were clearly binding. According to him, “Germany must make it clear to Russia” that there can be no talk of any commissioning of Nord Stream 2 before March 2022 (that is, by the end of the current heating season). It’s interesting, but who, in fact, authorized the US State Department to determine just such, and not some other term? And why both Russia and Germany "owe" something to him at all ?! Very interesting in the light of all this sounded the answer of Mr. Hochstein to the question asked to him as to why the United States is in no hurry to save its "Euro-Atlantic allies" with its own LNG? Without blushing at all, this figure replied: "There is LNG in the country, but the American authorities cannot dictate export directions to private companies." That means, how - to indicate to your own "not entitled", but to try to push around "Gazprom" - please? The State Department has a very interesting "logic". Downright the embodiment of a paradox. Or is it all the same absolutely outrageous arrogance?

This incident, by the way, is also an answer to the question of why Washington decided to leave Nord Stream 2 alone for a while. Exceptionally, so that there are fewer questions regarding tankers with American LNG leaving for Asia. The party was simply postponed.

... and Moldovan "vybryki"


As you can see, the "US factor" in the upcoming confrontation over the planet's energy markets should not be discounted in any case. Nothing there has changed - and will never change: neither appetites, nor self-conceit, nor ways of solving the issues that the Americans have resorted to, and will continue to do so. As for Europe, "confusion and vacillation" reign there now. At the emergency and extraordinary meeting of the relevant ministers of the EU countries, which took place the other day in Luxembourg, devoted exclusively to the issues of the energy crisis, it was not possible to come even close to any consensus. For example, Spain, on the one hand, stands for "joint purchases of gas", and on the other, requires greater independence in setting electricity prices. Greece, France and the Czech Republic support these sensible ideas, but Germany is opposed. This is understandable - Nord Stream 2 is on its way, and even then the Germans will be able to dictate their terms to very, very many. Today they are trying to convince their neighbors that the current crisis is a “temporary” phenomenon, and, therefore, there is nothing to change the global “rules of the game” on the EU energy market.

Official Brussels, as usual, takes an amorphous and half-hearted position. The European Commission only agreed to "analyze market trends", as well as "the potential pros and cons of joint gas purchases." As usual - an empty talking shop, without clear perspectives and concrete consequences. The countries that are already on the verge of an energy collapse are not at all easier from such speculations, they gradually come to understand that everyone will be able to solve their own problems alone.

This is especially true for the countries of Eastern Europe and the so-called "post-Soviet space". Ukraine is a separate issue. The local booters then stubbornly continue to talk about their readiness to “pump 11 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe by the end of the year against the 5.6 billion available to Nord Stream 2, then they threaten“ tough retaliatory measures have been taken if Moscow stops using the Ukrainian GTS ”. And then they suddenly try to pretend to be "an attraction of unheard-of generosity," offering Gazprom to cut the transit price by half. In short, gas schizophrenia in all its glory.

Moldova stands somewhat apart in all the ongoing bedlam. They would be glad to continue to buy Russian "blue fuel" there, but the problem is that the price has changed from unrealistically low ($ 149 per thousand cubic meters) to simply very low by today's standards ($ 550 per thousand cubic meters). Moreover, it turns out that there are debts that (come on!) Must be repaid. Chisinau's long and unsuccessful negotiations with Gazprom boil down mainly to attempts to beg for something: either to bring down the price, or to postpone the settlement of debts. Otherwise it won't be ... Enough. The era of energy supplies "like brothers" is over for everyone and forever. Now it will be either in fairness, or, if you really want to - in general at market prices. There is still time to choose between these two options. At least some of the "dull" ones. The purchase by Moldova of 2 million cubic meters of "blue fuel" from the Polish PGNiG, and the Dutch Vitol, which some media outlets (especially in the "nezalezhnoy") present today as almost "an epoch-making breakthrough in getting rid of the Russian gas dictate" is nothing more than a desperate attempt to stay “afloat” undertaken by a country where a state of emergency has already been introduced in the energy sector. With an annual demand of 3 billion cubic meters of gas (including Transnistria), such demonstrative "outbursts" are not even funny ...

Mr. Hochstein, in his rants about the energy problems of Europe, did not ignore the topic of "the Kremlin's use of energy as a weapon." He said that it would be possible to talk about this if the poor freezing inhabitants of the Old World "fulfill all the conditions necessary for the supply of gas, while Moscow will put forward other requirements concerning other things." The usual Washington verbiage? No, there’s something more. This is the rationale for the next future sanctions, new attempts to force our country to act the way its worst enemies want. Even if the State Department’s unambiguous coercion by Germany to deliberately delay (contrary to real European interests) certification and commissioning of Nord Stream 2, sounding from the State Department, will not end there. Yes, ministry economics Germany has already sent a positive opinion regarding the certification of the pipeline to the Federal Office for Networks. However, the next word is for the European Commission. The local bureaucrats can delay the matter for two months, and even then take the same amount for "additional consideration." After that, the same Federal Agency has the right to “conduct an assessment” for another two months. Thus, the case may, to the great joy of Hochstein and his colleagues, drag on not even until March, but for all 8-10 months. For almost a year.

As you can see, the "gas war" that Russia is waging for its own right to earn money honestly, not "sagging" under anyone and not depending on anyone's foolishness, is still very far from over. Who knows whose votes in the same European Commission will be in the majority - those who listen to the voice of reason or individuals who are ready to freeze everything in the world “to spite Gazprom”? But this is just one of our "fronts". Ahead is the next "climate" summit, which, again, will address issues directly related to Russia's energy exports. Will the world come to its senses after the current crisis or will it continue to move along the path of "green" madness with even greater agility and speed? However, this is a completely different story ...
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  1. +1
    27 October 2021 12: 52
    what the European Commission says for Germany regarding the launch of SP2 is not an obstacle. Certification and launch only depend on Germany. Penalties may follow from the EC, but the EC does not have the instruments of a de facto ban on launching. Germany and all the main countries generally, without taking into account the barking of Poland and others, will decide among themselves how to arrange everything in a herringbone - ostentatious dissatisfaction with the European Commission, minimal fines and that's it. And the gas will go, tk. a lot of money and social stability in the EU are at stake. Now the alignment is very serious and not in favor of the EU. Russia will be able to use it competently without going too far. Donbass itself can become a self-sufficient region, because coal prices are skyrocketing. Kiev is eager to get this coal before winter. But he will get very hurt on his hands if he decides to take it by force.
  2. 0
    29 October 2021 11: 32
    The EU, with its stupid policy of stupid leaders who do not know how to think from words at all, and acting on the call of slogans, the media, mainly working not in their interests, but in the interests of their overseas owner, are destroying their economy to please him. Fools hold a flag in their hands, a drum on their neck. Russia, thanks to them, recouped the costs of the SP-2. Now let them not open it as much as they like. There is not much to wait, half of the industry will die from such prices and the demand for gas will fall.
  3. 0
    4 November 2021 05: 36
    the "gas" window of opportunity has opened

    it was not a window that opened, but an era, production and civilization will be where there is cheap energy and where there is a lot of it
  4. 0
    16 December 2021 06: 55
    We heard the opinion of this German, Heil Stein, who apparently serves in the German government. Otherwise, who could have prohibited this country from pumping gas, except for the leader?