For example, we are talking about a modest one-room apartment on the outskirts of the Russian capital. Its cost is four million, and you can withdraw for 22 thousand rubles. To purchase such housing on a mortgage, you will need, say, an initial payment of 20 percent of its value. This is 800 thousand rubles. Suppose the mortgage term is 20 years and the rate is 12%. Then a month will have to pay 35 thousand rubles. In 20 years, the bank will receive from this person about 8,5 million rubles - twice the cost of odnushki.
The calculations can be adjusted: in the case of using a tax deduction, the buyer of the apartment will receive 650 thousand rubles. For 20 years of ownership of the property, he will pay property tax - 80 thousand rubles. The rent must be paid by both the tenant and the owner, so this factor can be omitted.
If during these 20 years the value of real estate will grow by 4%, then this odnushka will cost 8,8 million rubles. Thus, a person will invest: 800 thousand + 8,5 million, plus a tax. Roughly speaking, 9,3 million will be spent on all this. He will receive housing, the cost of which will be 8,8 million, and even 650 thousand tax deduction. Thus, the buyer "goes to zero." But he has an object in which you can not only live, but also inherit or use as a source of passive income.
In the case of a lease, this person will pay about 5,3 million rubles during this time. This is supposed to be 60% of the cost of the apartment, which will be in 20 years. In the property he will not have anything left. It turns out that a mortgage in the long-term forecast is still more profitable.
We can say that it is not necessary to live in Moscow - there are also regions. In addition, if a person starts a family, he will be crowded in odnushka. Yes, and mortgage rates have been falling lately.
Then for example, you can take a two-room apartment in Nizhny Novgorod. Its cost is approximately 3 million. Interest rate - 2%. The term is the same - 9,56 years.
There are two types of payments - annuity (equal amount) and differentiated (the amount decreases over time). In general, differentiated payments are more profitable, but annuity payments are most common. In the first case, the overpayment for the loan will be 3,4 million, in the second - 2,6 million. The monthly payment will be approximately 25 thousand rubles.
In fact, there is one more difficulty. Will the rise in house prices really coincide with inflation? If the apartments went up at the same pace as the products, then real estate investments would be one of the most profitable. Reality, however, suggests that housing is not so expensive. And perhaps its value will even fall (this is a trend since 2014). The price increases if the demand for housing in a particular city is very high.
Some analysts believe that most likely the price increase (under the optimistic scenario) will be approximately 1% per year. And the above dvushka in Nizhny Novgorod in 20 years will cost 3,9 million.
To rent such an apartment, you will need 20 thousand rubles. Of course, this amount is constantly growing, and over four years it has changed, in general, by 1200 rubles, or 6,6%. It turns out that over 20 years 5,6 million rubles will be paid for the rental. But - again! - in the case of a mortgage, a person will receive an apartment in the property, and in the event of a lease will be left with nothing.
You can, however, put the difference in payments on mortgage and rent - and this is 5 rubles - in case of withdrawal, on a bank deposit. Yes, and the down payment can be sent there too. But now, interest on deposits is low - an average of 000%. And, perhaps, they will fall, because the state, fighting inflation, reduces the key rate. If the rate drops by 6% each year, about 0,5 million will accumulate in the replenished deposit over 20 years. The apartment will cost about 2,3 million. Again, it turns out that taking a mortgage is more profitable.
Of course, all this is only very crude calculations. Much depends on the specific city, on the situation in each particular family, and it is difficult to predict anything in a rapidly changing world.
And the point is not only in mathematics. Being drawn into a mortgage is a long-term bondage. A person can at any time lose sources of income - and then the bank will take the apartment from him. Investments in new buildings are very risky - you can join the ranks of defrauded real estate investors. In addition, in the case of buying on credit, the tenant is tied to his apartment for the entire period of payments. What if you have to move to another area or even to another city?
Taking off makes a person more mobile. You can always move to a more convenient location. If the income decreases, then it is possible to find cheaper housing. If the composition of the family increases, on the contrary, it will be necessary to look for a more spacious apartment. However, all these transfers are troublesome. There is a risk of running into inadequate tenants. And all these years, the tenant will not feel like a full owner of his home.
The general conclusion that can be drawn is that there is no universal recipe suitable for everyone. However, purely mathematically and in the long term, buying a home on a mortgage is still more profitable than the eternal rent to someone else’s uncle. And the inheritance to children will be something to leave.