Combining Russian "green kilowatts" and Chinese technologies will create a new alliance against the United States
The flaring global energy crisis is a major challenge for the modern Russian Federation. On the one hand, the budget again receives super profits from the sale of oil and gas abroad. On the other hand, in just a few months "inflation export" is expected to start from developed countries, where we buy high-tech equipment, machinery, food and stuff. Is there an opportunity to get out of this crisis in an obvious win? Let's think about it.
The current economic policies the Russian government can hardly be called adequate. Receiving super profits from the export of hydrocarbon raw materials, the authorities prefer to hide them in a "stash", taking them out of circulation. The size of international gold and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $ 618 billion, and we are ranked fifth in the world by this indicator. Is it a lot or a little? It seems to be a lot, but it has already been calculated that if Russia loses all of its oil and gas revenues, this amount will be enough for only 19 months. That is, we will last a year and a half, and then what? What miracle do the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation hope for?
At the same time, domestic inflation is steadily growing, which by the end of 2021 should be about 7-8%. Informal inflation is much higher when you look, for example, at the rise in food prices. This is due to the fact that many indicators are taken into account when calculating, and therefore the final result is an average. In addition to domestic inflation, "import inflation" will soon come to us. It means an increase in the cost of foreign products, which are produced in conditions of abnormally expensive gas and electricity. In other words, ordinary consumers will have to pay for the global energy crisis out of their own pockets. Most likely, the US Federal Reserve and the Central Banks of other countries will fight inflation by raising rates, which is also unpleasant. For Russia, in particular, this means an outflow of foreign capital, devaluation of the ruble, worsening conditions for financial borrowing and foreign trade.
In general, the prospects are so-so. But is it possible to somehow change, or even completely reverse this negative trend caused by the weakness and one-sidedness of the Russian economy, which depends on external players?
Chinese experience
Today, it is not Russia, but China that is the main adversary of the United States. At one time, American globalists shortsightedly fed the "Chinese dragon" so that it became a real competitor to the "hegemon." The factors such as the huge amount of cheap labor, the undervalued yuan, which is beneficial for the export model of the economy, as well as the principle of "technology in exchange for market access," and, of course, direct foreign investment, are usually cited as components of China's success. Apparently, it was assumed that the West would be able to contain the PRC in the role of a "world workshop", to which only parts of the production chains were given, but Beijing went further its own way.
An ambitious Made In China 2025 program was formulated. According to it, China was to become a world leader in such high-tech industries as: robotics, next-generation information technology, aviation and aerospace equipment, marine equipment and high-tech ships, rail transport, new energy carriers and energy-saving vehicles, energy and agricultural equipment, biopharm and high-tech medical devices, as well as new materials. The swing is gigantic. From the Made in China strategy Beijing intended to move to the Made in China strategy, and these are two big differences.
And this could not but cause a response from the collective West. It is customary to count the beginning of the trade war between the United States and the PRC with its announcement by the presidency of Donald Trump in 2018. Under him, the goal of transferring foreign production from China back to the United States and to other countries of Southeast Asia was announced. The cost of such a program is estimated at $ 1 trillion. Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Mexico began to take the place of the Celestial Empire. In addition to weakening a competitor through forced “de-industrialization,” Washington apparently began to put pressure on him in other directions. So, unexpectedly, obstacles began to arise in the implementation of the infrastructure project of the "New Silk Road" from Asia to Europe. In countries rich in natural resources, where China has invested heavily, coups have begun to take place.
There is a clear course towards economic strangulation and weakening of the PRC. Since Beijing has achieved considerable results in the development of the domestic consumer market, it will not be possible to bring down China completely and even more so all at once. However, the invisible "Anaconda" has already begun to wrap itself around the Celestial Empire: it will lose here, something will not work out here, it will not grow together there, and as a result, the total accumulated economic damage may turn out to be very high. This gives us reason to conclude that the good times for China are over, and the harsh everyday life of its own Cold War with the collective West has begun, with all the ensuing consequences in the form of a gradual deterioration in socio-economic indicators and, in the future, an increase in political instability.
And what about Russia?
Let's go back to our rams. The main problems of the Russian economy are general de-industrialization, a small domestic consumer market, as well as total dependence on the export of raw materials and the import of finished high-tech products. With an adequate approach, you can try to resolve them.
At firstLet's not forget that in the post-Soviet space we have our own integration project - the Eurasian Economic Union, created on the basis of the Customs Union. In addition to Russia and Belarus, it includes Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Its total population is 184 million. Let's face it, the optimal number of 400-500 million people is still very far away. However, there are prospects for further expansion of the EAEU.
Thus, Iran, with its 83,99 million population and the richest reserves of hydrocarbons, recently announced the possibility of joining. The question of joining the economic union of Syria with its 17,5 million population and the most convenient strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean was raised. Uzbekistan (34,23 million), Moldova (2,6 million) and Cuba (11,33 million) have observer status in the EAEU. This is almost another 150 million potential consumers, which gives a total of about 333,6 million people in a single economic space. If we add to them other former Soviet Central Asian republics and Ukraine, at least along the left bank of the Dnieper (and this issue will someday have to be resolved), then the EAEU can be something quite serious.
SecondlyRussia can and should play a leading role in this association, and not only through the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials. Let's return to China with its problems. Due to the beginning of the policy of strangling by the West in the rings of the "Anaconda", the economy of the PRC will inevitably begin to sag from year to year. Consequently, the main issue for it will be the preservation of sales markets and suppliers of raw materials. And here Russia could play its own game. It would be advisable to abandon purchases of finished products from the PRC with the requirement to localize their production in our country. Do not buy machinery and equipment, cars and laptops with smartphones, but instead open joint ventures for their production with subsequent sale in the market of the Eurasian Economic Union. In essence, this means re-industrialization, the creation of new high-tech jobs and an increase in the tax base.
The development of the so-called "green" energy can become our competitive advantage. The gigantic expanses of the country make it possible to install wind farms and offshore wind turbines in any quantity. Biogas power plants can be organized on the basis of any sewer, large livestock farm or landfill. We also have everything necessary for the development of hydrogen energy. By combining Russia's green kilowatts and Chinese technology, Moscow and Beijing can form a natural and mutually beneficial anti-American alliance.
- Sergey Marzhetsky
- Пресс-служба АО «НоваВинд», «Росамом»
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