"Great Exodus": Russia could be "swallowed" by a wave of climate refugees

The main officially declared reason for a large-scale energy transition is the need to combat climate change on our planet. It is not known whether the transition from fossil fuels to renewable green sources will actually help in this, but global warming does pose a serious danger. Its consequence can be massive "climatic" migration of the population, regardless of any state borders. Russia runs the risk of becoming one of the main victims of this process.

The population of the Earth is distributed very unevenly across it. There are three generally recognized centers of origin of great civilizations, due to favorable climatic and economic conditions of their formation. These are the Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as South China. Of course, this is far from an exhaustive list, but it is these regions in the foreseeable future that may become points of the “Great Exodus”, giving rise to endless streams of so-called “climate refugees”. Why is this happening?

"Great Exodus"

Scientists explain the mechanism of climate transformation as follows. An increase in atmospheric temperature by only 1 degree, on the one hand, leads to accelerated melting of polar ice, increased precipitation and floods, an increase in the level of the World Ocean, on the other hand, the average annual temperature increases, which can lead to the formation of permanent drought. According to UN forecasts, by 2050, hundreds of millions may face the problem of water shortages. And in 2020, a study by a group of scientists entitled "The Future of the Human Climate Niche" was published, according to which by 2070 from 1 to 3 billion people may find themselves in a changed climatic zone corresponding to the conditions of the Sahara. This applies primarily to residents of Africa, South America, Australia and Southeast Asia. In just half a century, the average annual temperature there may rise to 29 degrees Celsius. The problem will also affect the countries of South-Eastern Europe. By the specified period, the climate in Italy will be equal to Tunisia. For comparison, in our Sochi this figure is only 15 degrees.

This is extremely dangerous. Firstly, living and working in such a hot climate is corny unhealthy. Secondly, the arrival of the "Sahara" for an indefinitely long period with a shortage of water will cause severe harm to agriculture, creating a problem of real hunger. But these are not all risks. Humanity traditionally settles along the sea coast. Rising sea levels and flooding of coastal cities could be another factor that will force people to leave the scene en masse. In fact, the process of climate migration has been going on for a very long time. It is divided into internal, which occurs between the regions of one country, and external, cross-border. As a rule, only very wealthy people can afford the latter on legal grounds. We'll talk about illegal below.

As for internal migration, the United States, where the population is traditionally highly mobile, can serve as a vivid example. The process of mass migration from the northern states to the southern ones took place there in the period from the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the two thousandth of the 21st. California, Florida and Texas experienced the largest population growth. True, the opposite process is currently being observed there. Tired of the heat and severe fires, wealthy Americans are selling their homes in California and Florida and moving to safer regions. Their real estate is happily bought by poorer people who are not afraid of fires and rising sea levels, affecting the decline in the appraised value of houses. Similar processes are taking place in neighboring Canada, where the population density on the Atlantic coast is decreasing and, at the same time, it is increasing in the southern regions bordering the United States. In Finland, people try to move further south whenever possible. In Scotland, the population of the Highlands is declining in favor of the Lowlands.

And what about Russia?

Similar processes are taking place in our country. There are several characteristic points on the issue of internal migration in Russia. The recognized centers of attraction are Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as their suburbs, due to the higher standard of living and the availability of opportunities for self-realization. But the migration of the population within the country is not limited to these two megacities.

Three more directions stand out very clearly. In the west - this is the Kaliningrad region, next to Europe, in the south - the Krasnodar Territory, Voronezh and Belgorod regions, where they travel from all over Russia closer to the sea and heat. The South Siberian direction is also distinguished, which means the south of the Tyumen region and the Novosibirsk region, where mainly the inhabitants of Siberia move. As you can see, the constant life in the harsh North attracts few people. The situation is aggravated by the obvious process of permafrost thawing, which literally begins to shake cities and towns, forcing them to adapt to changing conditions or simply move.
The vast expanses of our country, located in several climatic zones at once, provide a wide enough scope for internal migration.

Unfortunately, climate change will take the problem of illegal migration to a fundamentally new level. And, alas, the hands of the authorities will be tightly tied. Why so, let's figure it out.

The UN identifies reasons for environmental migration such as rising sea levels or floods, natural disasters or extreme weather events, drought or desertification, urbanization and infrastructure construction, industrial accidents and environmental pollution, and conflicts related to the struggle for natural resources. Quite a wide list, where climatic migration appears to be a kind of ecological one. And now let's imagine that somewhere in Central Asia, a long-term drought began, which led to famine and armed confrontation between our neighbors over control of water resources. Let us ask ourselves where, in this case, millions of citizens of the former Soviet republics would want to move?

Probably, to Russia, where there is plenty of space, and even the authorities are ready to lease 1 million hectares of agricultural land to Uzbeks for a long-term lease. Some will travel legally, others illegally, since they have lost everything in their homeland. And what to do with them? Then send back, sending humanitarian aid? But it will not work ...

A very important legal precedent has already been set. There is such a little-known island state called Kiribati. It was one of the first to actually face climatic problems due to rising sea levels, soil degradation and a decrease in fresh water supplies. A Kiribati citizen named Teytiota moved with his family to prosperous New Zealand in 2007, and three years later applied for refugee status. However, the country's authorities refused him and in 2013 sent the whole family back to Kiribati. But he did not reconcile and in 2015 turned to the UN Commission on Human Rights with a complaint. Imagine, he was able to achieve significant success: in 2020, a principled decision was made that countries no longer have the right to expel foreign citizens if their life at home is threatened by the climate crisis.

It turns out that a year ago, a legal basis was created in a sly manner, enabling residents of South and Latin America to move to North America, natives of Africa and the Middle East to Europe, and residents of Central Asia or China to Russia. And we will not have the right to deny them as climate refugees and deport these essentially illegal migrants. These are the prospects.