How and why Russian international foreign exchange reserves may "burn out"
Reportedly, Russia's international gold and foreign exchange reserves have reached historic highs. As of September 1, 2021, they amounted to $ 618,2 billion. A huge amount of money, and if we take into account the funds of the NWF, the total size of the "nest egg" will soon approach 1 trillion dollars. Now a lot is being said about where they can be invested, because money must work, this is the basic law of capitalism. However, the Government and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation prefer not to spend them, considering it expedient to sit on the "money box". But what if all these savings, or a significant part of them, simply burn out ineptly, like national savings in the "dashing nineties"?
In fact, the likelihood of such a prospect is significantly different from zero. Foreign exchange reserves are represented by foreign currencies, gold, as well as special drawing rights, which the IMF has poured so generously to us so unexpectedly. If earlier the bet was placed on the dollar, now the balance has been redistributed in favor of the euro, yuan and precious metal. Let's try to present extreme versions of what may happen to our gold reserves.
Euro
At first glance, what could happen to the single European currency? It seems that nothing, but it is not quite true. There is the European Union as economic basis, and above it there is a militaryполитическая superstructure in the form of a NATO bloc. And even now, serious problems are visible in their unity and opposition.
On the one hand, Great Britain has already officially seceded from the EU, which caused significant economic damage to it. At the same time, Washington, London and Canberra have formed a new anti-Chinese military alliance, where the continental European countries did not bother to invite. In France, which was "thrown" with a multi-billion dollar contract for submarines, they started talking about leaving the NATO bloc. Now, many lightly dismiss such a prospect, but for Paris and Berlin, the creation of their own military alliance and the United European Army seems to be the most rational solution as opposed to the "Anglo-Saxon triangle". This is an objective process of consolidation, and it does not depend on the nature of a particular person in power.
On the other hand, dramatic changes are brewing in the EU's economic base. Poland, backed by the United States, has challenged Brussels by placing its national legislation ahead of European legislation. In Russia, they like to talk a lot about traditional values as a counterbalance to the ideas of tolerance and political correctness, but the Poles are ready to defend them even more zealously. Warsaw is not yet ready to secede from the EU, political bargaining is underway. But if she succeeds, all the countries of Southeast Europe will undoubtedly want to follow Poland's example. And here, right on the map of the Old World, we see a fairly clear division into Western Europe and the so-called "Trimoria" project as the reincarnation of Jozef Pilsudski's dream of "Intermarium". Created under the auspices of Warsaw, which was the first to oppose itself to Brussels, "Trimorie" has a chance to become a counterbalance to Berlin and Paris under the indirect control of Washington.
What do we see? There are prerequisites for a radical reformatting, as well as for a possible split of the seemingly united Europe. And then what will happen to the euro? Will there be a single currency? Which countries will use it? How much will it weigh? There are a lot of questions.
Yuan
Another extreme of the policy of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation was a serious increase in the share of the yuan in international reserves. It seems to be correct, since the PRC is one of the two leading world powers, and we are building friendly relations with it. However, it is worth remembering that Beijing is devaluing its national currency in order to preserve the advantageous position of Chinese manufacturers and exporters. This accordingly leads to the depreciation of the Russian "moneybox" denominated in yuan. Unfortunately, these are not all possible problems.
At first, the Chinese economic colossus may be standing on feet of clay. Recall that the 2008 crisis began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the United States. And the PRC runs the risk of getting similar problems. The second largest developer in the country, called Evergrande, pursued a rather risky investment policy, for which he paid the price by going to bankruptcy. Information about the problems of the Evergrande Group has already led to unrest in the financial markets, as bankruptcy threatens with the loss of a large number of suppliers and lenders of the concern. The company will have to be rescued by the authorities, since otherwise a domino effect is possible for the entire Chinese economy. However, there are still so many Lehman Brothers in China that are ready to burst at any moment? Numerous "bubbles" have been talked about for a very long time.
Secondly, it should be borne in mind that the PRC is under permanent pressure from the United States. The Americans have already formed a military alliance with the British and Australians. The topic of the war for Taiwan is constantly being discussed, which can be used as a pretext for imposing broad international sanctions against Beijing.
One can imagine what will happen to the currency of the country from which the Anglo-Saxons are trying to make an outcast. Nothing good for sure.
Dollar
Finally, Russian dollar-denominated reserves may be at risk. It is enough for Washington to prohibit Russian banks from making settlements in dollars through correspondent accounts with American credit and financial institutions. And that's all.
Note that the leading economic powers such as the United States, Great Britain or Germany do not seek to create the world's largest reserves, although they can afford to do so. Instead, they let capital work. The policy of the Russian authorities with regard to international reserves does not stand up to any criticism at all.
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