The cost of blue fuel futures on European exchanges on October 6 fell sharply, remaining, however, at a completely “transcendental” level. It is a general belief that such a “reversal” of the seemingly completely “loose” gas price was facilitated by just a few words spoken by Russian President Vladimir Putin - as they say, in the right place and at the right time. It just so happened that the meeting on energy issues held in the Kremlin became fateful for almost the whole world. Inspires, however ...
On the other hand, someone may be perplexed: why do this now? Prices for domestic energy carriers are almost flying into space, the capitalization of the "national treasure" is growing by leaps and bounds - why slow down such an enticing-looking process? Moreover, trying to reverse it. Is it possible that the Kremlin does not know at all what they are doing, they do not see the benefits or are imbued with "European values" to such an extent that they decided to save our "friends" from the EU to the detriment of national interests? Not at all. The desire of the leadership of our country to stop the madness going on in the energy market has under itself quite pragmatic, balanced and dictated precisely by Russia's long-term priorities. Which ones? Let's figure it out.
What lies on the surface
To begin with, of course, mention should be made of the motives so obvious that it is simply impossible not to notice them. No, the point here is by no means a fear of the management of RAO Gazprom and Russia as a whole to be subjected to new portions of accusations and attacks regarding the "deliberate creation of a man-made energy crisis in order to obtain superprofits" from especially Russophobic European politicians... Yes, let them flirt as much as they like. As far as is known, the European Commission, with the suggestion of France, Spain, Greece, the Czech Republic and Romania, who initiated this issue, has already begun "an official investigation into the reasons for the sharp increase in the cost of energy resources." That is, we will call a spade a spade - the search for those responsible for our current calamities. Well, what they will investigate there and who will eventually be named "the main villain" is understandable with a probability of about 99%. But we are no stranger to this. Alas, unspoken accusations, not supported by a single piece of evidence, have recently become almost the only type of "messages" that Brussels sends to Moscow.
Nevertheless, any Russophobic nonsense voiced as a result from the tribunes of the European Commission, the European Parliament and other "authorized bodies" will not cancel the cold winter and emptiness in the underground storage facilities of the Old World. Consequently, they will continue to buy our "blue fuel" there (at least in the foreseeable future) as pretty. Let and curse at the same time its price for all the crusts. However, the laws economics can not be canceled by any directives or declarations in the same way as the laws of nature. And they say that every sharp rise in demand for something (and, accordingly, the market and exchange value of this "something") will inevitably be followed by an equally, or even more sharp decline.
And this is not beneficial to us at all. The price swing does not contribute to the stability and systematic development of any business. Gazprom, to put it mildly, did not live in poverty even in those days when Europe bought its products seven times cheaper than it is now. The current boom is, of course, wonderful. But only not if it ends not just with a "rollback", but with a complete collapse. But this may well happen if the rise in gas prices continues - all the more, up to 3 thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters already predicted by analysts. Already now in the Old World plants for the production of fertilizers are shutting down - their work is becoming unprofitable, simply unprofitable.
Next in line are glass and metallurgical enterprises, which are at risk of going bankrupt on energy carriers that are vital for their production processes. What's next? Dutch greenhouses, "devouring" 3 billion cubic meters of gas annually? Bakeries, food processing plants? Indeed, in any modern production in significant volumes, if not "blue fuel" is used directly, then at least electricity, obtained, again, through its combustion. In such a "situation", which directly threatens bankruptcy not for individual companies, but for entire industrial sectors, we really run the risk of being left by the spring-summer of next year without a huge number of buyers of our own energy resources. Do we need it? Of course not. We are not waging an economic war of destruction with Europe - we are trading with it. Losing such a promising market, even by hitting a one-time "jackpot", would be the height of short-sightedness.
And what is hidden from view
However, all these, as already mentioned above, are completely elementary reasons, visible, as they say, "with the naked eye." Nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that the global rationale behind Moscow's desire to reverse the unprecedented rise in energy prices is much deeper and more complex. It's no secret that one of the main global threats to the economic (and not only) interests of our country in the long term is the “green course” taken by the “collective West” in all seriousness. After all, it means not just total “decarbonization” and “zeroing of greenhouse gas emissions”, but, in fact, a complete rejection of the use of any types of fossil fuels and the transition exclusively to renewable energy sources. In addition, this will be accompanied by the transfer of states that did not want to give up traditional energy, into the category of pariahs, outcasts of the "world community".
It is perfectly clear that a sharp decrease in the volume (and in the future - and a complete cessation) of energy exports will not contribute to Russia's prosperity in any way. All the more so - if the process of "greening" is carried out at the pace that they are talking about today in the EU and other Western countries, as well as accompanied by the introduction of "carbon taxes" and other restrictive measures for all types of other exports. It would seem that it is in the light of all this that the energy crisis that has broken out today, not least caused by excessive experiments with "green" energy and in practice proved the extreme doubtfulness of its reliability and viability, as such, plays into the hands of our country. However, this is a rather superficial and hasty conclusion. In fact, everything is exactly the opposite.
To be convinced of this, it is necessary to turn to the main reasons why, in fact, the "green revolution" is happening so far with a fair amount of "slippage". The point here is not only in climatic phenomena, which manifested themselves in a change in the intensity of winds over Europe, and turned the attempt to generate electricity in any significant amount using wind generation into a completely empty venture. In any case, at its cost, the energy obtained from renewable energy sources today cannot be compared with that produced using fossil fuels. Specialists and analysts have long calculated that any kind of competitiveness of "clean" energy in comparison with "dirty" energy can only be discussed when a barrel of oil is sold for $ 300. leads to the fact that the low profitability of "green" energy and the huge risks inherent in it scare away potential investors from this industry, primarily private ones.
Yes, numerous corporations engaged in the production and transportation of hydrocarbons in the West are vying with each other to take on "increased obligations" for the development of the renewable energy sector. But where are the declarations, and where are the real actions? Ultimately, this is the reason, first of all, the fact that to this day the main barrier has not been overcome, for example, the process of the universal transition of the inhabitants of the Earth from using cars with internal combustion engines to "environmentally friendly" electric cars - the lack of batteries capable of ensure long-term and reliable functioning of the latter. And in general, this problem is extremely relevant for the entire "green energy", as such.
Everyone knows that the market value of all hydrocarbons is interconnected. As soon as the price of gas soared upward, which had already fully earned the right to be called “blue gold,” oil immediately rose in price. So far, of course, we are not talking about three hundred dollars per barrel, but things are moving in this direction. What if, in this way, traditional energy is really equal in cost to the newfangled "green"? This may well push many to make investments in its development, sufficient to make a number of technological "breakthroughs" that will indeed bring renewable energy sources to a completely new level. Let's be frank - at the moment this is contrary to the interests of our country in the most decisive way.
Despite the controversy of the idea of man-made "global warming", we have to admit: technological the process is unstoppable. Sooner or later, humanity will inevitably shift the vector of its development in the "ecological" direction. However, these should be gradual, thoughtful and harmonious changes, and not the crazy "storm" that the EU, Britain and the United States are trying to carry out today. In such conditions, Russia will have time to take the necessary measures to restructure its own industry and energy (for example, to take dominant positions in the "hydrogen" industry, for which there are all the prerequisites) and, thus, normally "fit" into the new world, while incurring minimal losses , or even finding themselves in profit. The current position voiced by Vladimir Vladimirovich is another manifestation of the ability to play not just "for a long time", but to build the game many moves ahead.
The industrial and energy collapse, which the West has come close to, and, above all, the countries of the European Union, is not at all beneficial to our country. Equally, it does not need any changes that can help speed up the "green revolution", the supporters of which, by the way, at the current stage of the crisis in the world have greatly diminished. So Russia will help out, help, heat and provide fuel - and at an acceptable price, not a “cosmic” one. In their long-term interests, of course.