"Gifts of the Sultan": Erdogan exchanged two new nuclear power plants in Turkey for Syrian Idlib?


A few days ago, a meeting between Presidents Putin and Erdogan took place in Sochi. In just three hours, the Russian and Turkish leaders managed to discuss a lot of issues, including the situation in Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the possibility of partial localization of the production of the S-400 air defense system abroad and transferring projects to Rosatom to build two more nuclear power plants on the Black Sea coast of Turkey. It is worth talking about the latter in more detail.


Let's put it bluntly: given the tense situation in Idlib, where the Russian Aerospace Forces and government troops of the SAR are clearly preparing revenge for the Turks, President Erdogan's proposal to give contracts for two more nuclear power plants looks like an attempt to “butter up” the Kremlin. We immediately picked up this idea with joy, but is it worth it to be on the "gifts of the Sultan"?

Why is it unprofitable


At present, Rosatom, through its subsidiary, is completing the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Turkey called Akkuyu. The first power unit should start working in 2023, and after the commissioning of all four, Ankara will be able to count on a total capacity of 4800 MW. The benefit for the Turkish side is beyond doubt, which, alas, cannot be said about the Russian side.

It is generally accepted that the contractor simply hands over the constructed nuclear power plant to the happy owner and takes care of its subsequent maintenance as a technical consultant, fuel supplier and other consumables. However, Rosatom decided to be creative and apply an “innovative” business model, which is called “build-own-operate” (in English - BOO, Build-Own-Operate). This means that its subsidiary structure will own 99,2% of the shares, and the problem of recoupment of the project will fall solely on the shoulders of the state corporation.

Also, Rosatom failed to get the Turks to undertake obligations to buy out certain volumes of electricity at a certain fixed price. All Ankara agreed to was to buy 70% of the generated volumes from the first two power units at a price of 12,35 US cents per kilowatt / hour during the first 15 years, and 30% from generation from the next two. At the same time, after the NPP reaches recoupment, Turkey will receive 20% of the power plant's net income. Luxurious conditions, you will not say anything! Note that Rosatom will somehow have to recoup the invested $ 22 billion. It is obvious that Akkuyu is an extremely dubious business project for Russia in all respects. To his political component we will return in more detail a little later.

And here we are offered to build two more similar nuclear power plants, in Sinop and Igneada.

It is assumed that the second nuclear power plant in Turkey will appear near the city of Sinop. The capacity of its four power units is 4800 MW. It was supposed to be built by a consortium of the Japanese company Mitsubishi and the French company Framatome. The project cost was $ 22 billion, like our Akkuyu. However, after the disaster at Fukushima-1, contractors made adjustments to the project, and the estimate doubled, to $ 2 billion. Ankara refused to cooperate with the Franco-Japanese consortium, but with technical Sinop's point of view is the most prepared platform. The situation is somewhat different with the project in Ingleada, which is also located on the Black Sea, just 10 kilometers from Bulgaria. The third Turkish nuclear power plant was to be built by the Chinese company SNPTC using the technologies of the American Westinghouse based on the AP1000 and CAP140 reactors. The launch of the first power unit was planned to be carried out already in 2023, but there is no real progress in the construction of the station.

So, we need to understand whether Russia is worth taking on these projects.

Why is it dangerous


Seriously though, it is not clear where all this enthusiasm about the "gifts of the Sultan" came from. There are too many possible "pitfalls" in cooperation with Turkey right on the shore.

At firstIf the BOO (Build-Own-Operate) business model is applied in Sinop and Inglead, then instead of one Akkuyu we will get three projects at once with dubious prospects for recoupment. There is no reason to believe that Rosatom will bargain for better conditions for itself this time.

Secondly, long-term cooperation with Ankara is extremely unreliable from a political point of view. Turkey crossed the road of Russia in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, now in Turkmenistan and Central Asia, in general. In our country, it is rather naive to believe that nuclear power plants allegedly tightly tie the Turks to Rosatom in terms of fuel supplies and services. Say, there will be 3 nuclear power plants, which means the dependence will be three times higher. Alas, this is not the case. Nothing can prevent Ankara in the event of aggravation of relations with Moscow from nationalizing these strategic energy infrastructure facilities. There will be no special problems with TVEL supplies either: Westinghouse has already trained at Ukrainian nuclear power plants and adapted its nuclear fuel for Russian-designed reactors. In other words, we could lose something like $ 66 billion at once (22 times 3). The question is, who will actually hold whom for the "causal" place: are we Turks, or are they us?

ThirdlyLet's think about the long-term implications of changing contractors for new nuclear projects. In this case, we will be interested in the nuclear power plant in Ingleada, which China intended to build. Let's remember how terribly offended the French were when a multibillion-dollar contract for the construction of submarines was taken from under their noses. In Paris, this was taken almost as a national insult. I wonder how Beijing will react if their contract is taken away by Moscow? Yes, in theory, what difference does it make to us, we have capitalism, nothing personal, just business. Or not? The Kremlin seems to be set on friendly relations with the PRC, but what if the Chinese are offended and then remember? Or come what may, but money does not smell? Well, let ...

FourthlyBy creating a specific infrastructure and training Turkish specialists, we inevitably contribute to the development of Ankara's nuclear program, which in the future may receive a military direction. President Erdogan has already spoken directly about the need for Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons.

The bottom line is that cooperation with Turkey in the field of nuclear energy is a very controversial idea, which may subsequently turn out to be Russia sideways. Deepening it and scaling it up by building 2 more new nuclear power plants seems to be an extremely bad idea. If it also turns out that these projects are the result of an exchange for de-escalation in Idlib in favor of Turkey, then this is just some kind of madness. Note that after the announcement of the "gifts of the Sultan" information about the preparatory strikes of the RF Aerospace Forces against the positions of the pro-Turkish militants in the north of the SAR has sharply decreased. I would like to make a mistake, but one gets the impression that instead of reducing economic By contrast, the Kremlin is happy to deepen its dependence on Ankara.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 7 October 2021 12: 29
    +2
    IMHO, it is necessary to look in more detail at the NPP business plan.
    And all sorts of references to Idlib are for ordinary Saidov and Mustaf, shooting at each other. This never stopped capital.
    Sell ​​SU57 to the killer of pilots - just pay.
    At the height of tension there, our transport workers quietly flew to Syria through Turkey. Articles were also here.
  2. savage1976 Offline savage1976
    savage1976 7 October 2021 13: 11
    +2
    Cooperation between states is a complex issue. In a family, a husband and wife sometimes have different goals, and they differ even more among states. Whether it is profitable or not, experts should still consider. For example, in the Russian Federation, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants for 2019 (I could not find newer data) is about 0.6 rubles per kilowatt, selling at $ 0.1235 per kilowatt, almost 9 rubles from the same nuclear power plants is quite profitable, given that the cost of the station in Russia and Turkey approximately equal. Well, it is quite possible to protect against nationalization and other risks, for example, to stop the station and block all the station software, and the station needs to be serviced, and not just changed rods. The same Ukraine has extensive experience and industry in the creation of equipment and units for nuclear power plants and carries out their repair at home, but is it all in Turkey?
    1. Mish Offline Mish
      Mish (Misha) 8 October 2021 13: 15
      -2
      Quote: savage1976
      Cooperation between states is a complex issue. In a family, a husband and wife sometimes have different goals, and they differ even more among states. Whether it is profitable or not, experts should still consider. For example, in the Russian Federation, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants for 2019 (I could not find newer data) is about 0.6 rubles per kilowatt, selling at $ 0.1235 per kilowatt, almost 9 rubles from the same nuclear power plants is quite profitable, given that the cost of the station in Russia and Turkey approximately equal. Well, it is quite possible to protect against nationalization and other risks, for example, to stop the station and block all the station software, and the station needs to be serviced, and not just changed rods. The same Ukraine has extensive experience and industry in the creation of equipment and units for nuclear power plants and carries out their repair at home, but is it all in Turkey?

      Do you not admit that Turkey can simply arrest the personnel if the nuclear power plant is shut down?
      1. savage1976 Offline savage1976
        savage1976 8 October 2021 13: 27
        +2
        Have you heard of remote control in modern times? Do you know that this is a pretext for a full-scale war? It is one thing to realize property and quite another to take citizens of another state hostage. And no one canceled the answer in the form of the detention of the Turks in Russia and the nationalization of their enterprises in Russia. And we also have quite a few of their enterprises, hundreds in various fields, from construction to banks.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 7 October 2021 13: 14
    -1
    All Ankara agreed to was to buy 70% of the generated volumes from the first two power units at a price of 12,35 US cents per kilowatt / hour during the first 15 years, and 30% from generation from the next two.

    And this with the annual printing of dollars by the Americans in trillions (wagons)? In a few years, these 12,35 US cents per kilowatt / hour may be so zero that they will turn into 12,35 Russian cents per kilowatt / hour. And then what? Will Russia forgive debts again?
    1. savage1976 Offline savage1976
      savage1976 7 October 2021 14: 31
      -2
      But it may be different, that these 12.35 cents will cost 500 rubles. Which option do you think is more likely? Is a dollar worth 1 ruble or is a dollar worth 200 rubles?
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 7 October 2021 14: 40
        -1
        You did not understand! 12,35 US cents per kilowatt / hour can be zeroed so much that it will turn into the current 12,35 Russian cents per kilowatt / hour. - this is by purchasing power. That is, inflation with trillions of dollars will bring down these cents tenfold, you cannot buy boxes of matches with them, and the price will remain the same - 12,35 US cents per kilowatt / hour.
        1. savage1976 Offline savage1976
          savage1976 7 October 2021 16: 26
          0
          I understand you, but do not forget that the United States needs a barrel of oil worth $ 20 trillion and they close their debt, and other countries, like Russia, need a dollar to cost 70 rubles, so they will drop their currencies even faster and proportion the exchange rate will be maintained. This means that electricity from this station will continue to be sold 10 times more expensive than in Russia.
          1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
            Bulanov (Vladimir) 7 October 2021 16: 35
            -1
            And what is the point, then, to keep savings in dollars? There was one million - it became one dollar!
            1. savage1976 Offline savage1976
              savage1976 8 October 2021 01: 27
              +1
              A million dollars will remain a million, and a million rubles will remain a million, the question is what can be bought with this million much less, and the amount of money will not change.
        2. savage1976 Offline savage1976
          savage1976 7 October 2021 16: 29
          0
          I will also add that we do not see the contract and the formula for calculating the price too. I think the fixed price is not spelled out there, but the formula for its formation is spelled out, and 12.35 is the current price according to this formula.
    2. smersh chek Offline smersh chek
      smersh chek (smersh chek) 7 October 2021 15: 39
      -1
      yes, you need to fix the cost of energy to gold
  4. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 7 October 2021 13: 15
    +1
    "Gifts of the Sultan": Erdogan exchanged two new nuclear power plants in Turkey for Syrian Idlib?

    - Yes, Erdogan "did not exchange" anything ... - He (Erdogan) simply put "two things" in his pocket at once ... - this is the "Syrian Idlib" (where the Turks will remain - and will not go anywhere) and a very real possibility that Russia will build two more new nuclear power plants for Turkey (on the same "conditions" that it is building the first nuclear power plant for Turkey) ... - These are Erdogan's "big pockets" ...
  5. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 7 October 2021 14: 15
    +2
    You see, as soon as you begin to understand in detail the activities of our rulers and the benefits of their rule disappear. How many questions appear at once? And imagine that we will begin, in a few years, to sort out all their cases bit by bit, as now the Stalin’s rule is being dismantled? So under Stalin, the result was, and economic, and political, and moral. And here? Only palaces, yachts and "loot does not smell".
  6. smersh chek Offline smersh chek
    smersh chek (smersh chek) 7 October 2021 15: 36
    0
    if you build, then for cash now and not in 20 years
  7. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
    sH, arK 7 October 2021 17: 03
    0
    The author has already written about 12.35 cents per 1 kW. For today, the price is fabulous! ;)) There is also the second part of the agreement, Turkey buys out the Akkuyu NPP at full cost in 10 years after 15 years of operation. Those. Rosatom is returning $ 22 billion. Yes, there are nuances - inflation is also in dollars. But the stock is undoubtedly very large. And the risk, whatever one may say, is also there, but the benefit is huge ... If the next 2 nuclear power plants are built according to the same principle, then taking into account the total investments, one must understand that there is a huge benefit for Rosatom on the one hand, but Russia's dependence on Turkey on the other ... It's like with debts - if you owe the lender $ 1000, then you work for the lender, and if you owe $ 1 billion, then the lender works for you!
    1. Mish Offline Mish
      Mish (Misha) 8 October 2021 13: 23
      0
      Quote: sH, arK
      The author has already written about 12.35 cents per 1 kW. For today, the price is fabulous! ;)) There is also the second part of the agreement, Turkey buys out the Akkuyu NPP at full cost in 10 years after 15 years of operation. Those. Rosatom is returning $ 22 billion. Yes, there are nuances - inflation is also in dollars. But the stock is undoubtedly very large. And the risk, whatever one may say, is also there, but the benefit is huge ... If the next 2 nuclear power plants are built according to the same principle, then taking into account the total investments, one must understand that there is a huge benefit for Rosatom on the one hand, but Russia's dependence on Turkey on the other ... It's like with debts - if you owe the lender $ 1000, then you work for the lender, and if you owe $ 1 billion, then the lender works for you!

      In general, nuclear power plants are being built in a region where there are no large enterprises, which means that electricity will have to be transported over considerable distances, power lines, transformers ... who will build and own all this is a mystery. It is possible to establish such a tariff that the station will pay off in 100 years.
  8. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 7 October 2021 19: 28
    0
    The Russian government is pursuing a program of interests of various industrial business groups.
    Business politics and the military are not interested.
    Kremlin advisers argue - that through "joint projects", mutual dependence
    in business - interdependence will be formed in political, strategic
    issues - both with Europe and Turkey.
    At the moment, both Europe and Turkey - retain freedom of action AGAINST Russia, on all issues agreed with the United States, and in the case of Turkey, in all areas of the planned
    EXPANSIONS Turkey.

    Perhaps Russia has NO military-political interests ... just ANYWHERE ... -
    wherever Turkey, Britain, the United States and NATO have military and political interests.
    At the moment, Russia has only business projects.
    And at the same time the "propaganda" of the Kremlin shouts - that "Russia is surrounded."
    Is this a diagnosis? Or just have to wait ... 50 years? And - "from Lisbon to Vladivostok ..."?
  9. Bitter Offline Bitter
    Bitter (Gleb) 7 October 2021 22: 06
    -1
    Well done sultan, just fine.
    Two three stations. The technical staff will be trained, the engineers will be trained, the scientific base will be developed. You look and you can dream about a bomb, naturally from purely peaceful motives.
    And in the "zone" along the border, you can humanely rivet mosques, introduce your own infrastructures and distribute passports. And then, as the people decide, so it will be. But with the Kurds, there is still a solution to find everything in chocolate.
  10. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
    assault 2019 (assault 2019) 8 October 2021 07: 51
    0
    Note that Rosatom will somehow have to recoup the invested $ 22 billion. It is obvious that Akkuyu is an extremely dubious business project for Russia in all respects.

    And that Rosatom cannot invest these billions in Russia and build two nuclear power plants in its neighborhood, in the vicinity of cities with a population of over one million, providing the country with cheap electricity.
    What prevents to bring the share of nuclear power plants in Russia's generation to at least 50% and get rid of coal-fired thermal power plants that smoke the sky and kill the environment.
    In France, this share is more than 80%, and they do not worry about energy independence.
    Are the half-empty pipes of the "Turkish stream" not teaching these Kremlin managers anything and getting money out of the country is their main task?
    1. Mish Offline Mish
      Mish (Misha) 8 October 2021 13: 28
      +1
      Quote: assault 2019
      Note that Rosatom will somehow have to recoup the invested $ 22 billion. It is obvious that Akkuyu is an extremely dubious business project for Russia in all respects.

      And that Rosatom cannot invest these billions in Russia and build two nuclear power plants in its neighborhood, in the vicinity of cities with a population of over one million, providing the country with cheap electricity.
      What prevents to bring the share of nuclear power plants in Russia's generation to at least 50% and get rid of coal-fired thermal power plants that smoke the sky and kill the environment.
      In France, this share is more than 80%, and they do not worry about energy independence.
      Are the half-empty pipes of the "Turkish stream" not teaching these Kremlin managers anything and getting money out of the country is their main task?

      Have many nuclear power plants been built in Russia after the collapse of the USSR? Or other power plants? they are all private, although Rosatom is formally a state-owned company, the profit goes to shareholders
  11. Vovan Petrov Offline Vovan Petrov
    Vovan Petrov 8 October 2021 10: 37
    +1
    These nuclear power plants are the yoke that Rosatom hangs around the neck of Russia. Either idiocy or outright sabotage aimed at siphoning funds from the Russian economy. For Russia in these "projects" there are only losses and damage both in the present time (construction at the expense of Russia) and in the future (operating costs and almost zero profit).
  12. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 10 October 2021 09: 34
    0
    First: if only, if only then mushrooms would grow in the mouth.
    Secondly: the author "naively" believes that our top leadership is naive in their relations with Turkey in general and with Erdogan in particular.
    Thirdly: no one from our side has confirmed that we will support the wishes of the Turks to our detriment.
    Fourthly: modern nuclear power under the control of the manufacturer's country does not allow, in principle, to approach the creation of nuclear weapons, since the technologies of a peaceful atom and a military one are fundamentally different, Turkish specialists will only be given what they are supposed to know for the safe operation of a nuclear power plant. Russia is conscientiously fulfilling the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
    The conclusion is this: the author is pulling on an unfortunate owl. And where does the Society for the Protection of Animals look? This question hung in the air for a moment, and evaporated ... without an answer.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  13. more Erdogans in the world would be divorced! Let's get rich!