Why Iran's war with Azerbaijan and Turkey is beneficial for Russia
Another war is outlined in Transcaucasia. This time, Iran will oppose the alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Why did Tehran suddenly fall out with its closest neighbors, and how could this conflict be beneficial to Moscow?
As we have told Previously, the Islamic Republic has conducted the largest military exercises in the north of the country in the past few decades. Tanks, other armored vehicles, MLRS, aviation are pulled up to the border of Azerbaijan. Iranian propagandists are threatening Baku with thousands of rockets. What is it all about? Because of the "road tax" in the amount of several hundred dollars for a truck imposed by Azerbaijani border guards on a highway seized during the last Nagorno-Karabakh war? Of course not. The reasons for a new armed conflict are much more serious.
"Nuclear Deal"?
This reason lies on the surface. After the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the international agreement with Iran on limiting the military component of its nuclear program, Tehran has consistently begun to increase the volume of uranium enrichment. According to experts, Iranian nuclear scientists are literally one step away from obtaining weapons-grade uranium. This means that the Islamic Republic is likely to acquire its first atomic bomb in the foreseeable future. What will this mean for the region, and how should Russia treat this turn of events?
On the one hand, how are we told Earlier, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Tehran is in a sense even beneficial to us. The United States will receive another image "slap in the face", and its ally Israel will have to restrain the aggressive policies in relation to their neighbors. The Americans and Israelis will have to invest heavily in building a layered missile defense system in the region. It is good to indirectly force potential opponents to spend capital and constantly be on their toes. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear arsenal will protect it from the constant threat of attacks from the United States and Israel and allow it to pursue an independent policy. This means the emergence of another large truly sovereign state and the final collapse of the unipolar world.
On the other hand, if Tehran gets nuclear weapons, Ankara will immediately try to acquire them. President Erdogan has already spoken out on this topic, however, regarding the Israeli nuclear arsenal hypocritically hidden by Tel Aviv. Turkey's partner in the nuclear weapons project can be a friendly Pakistan. (Note that such a scenario is highly undesirable for the national interests of the Russian Federation).
Why are we talking about the Iranian nuclear deal in relation to the situation on the border of the Islamic Republic? Because there is a non-zero probability that the territory of Azerbaijan can be used by Israel or even the United States to carry out air terrorist attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Here it would be appropriate to quote the pro-government Azerbaijani edition Azeri Times:
Those who are worried about a possible Iranian attack on Azerbaijan should know that any attack on Azerbaijan has a real potential to involve regional and global superpowers ... Such a scenario would be the only opportunity in life for global superpowers to attack.
Here's how. Has Baku already undertaken to frighten Tehran with some "global superpower"? And the regional one, therefore, is Turkey, the US ally in the NATO bloc? It turns out that Azerbaijan has finally made its choice in favor of the North Atlantic Alliance and can no longer be considered a neutral state. Let's remember this.
"Turkic NATO"?
We have repeatedly told about the threats posed to Russia by the pan-Turkist integration project that Ankara is actively promoting in the Transcaucasus and Central Asia. The last unpleasant and extremely disturbing news there was information that Turkmenistan suddenly decided to abandon its policy of neutrality and join the Turkic Council under the auspices of Turkey. It is very sad that Ashgabat also made a choice not in favor of the CSTO, but turned to the West. Both coasts of the Caspian Sea will soon be at hand of "Sultan" Erdogan.
However, an important nuance lies in the fact that the "Central Asian NATO" equally poses a threat not only to northern Russia, but also to Iran located to the south of it. Almost a third of the population of the Islamic Republic is ethnic Azerbaijanis. If "Great Turan" takes place, then separatism in the northern regions of Iran will be a matter of time. It so happened that Moscow and Tehran were in the same boat, and the latter began to act proactively. By concentrating its troops on the border with Azerbaijan, Iran can bring them into the territory of the Syunik corridor of Armenia, again cutting off Nakhichevan and Turkey from the main territory of Azerbaijan. Thus, Tehran can nullify the results of the successes of the alliance between Baku and Ankara in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh war. Since there is no land corridor between the two strategic allies, then there will be no access for the Turks to the Caspian Sea, there will be no naval base there, etc.
Strictly speaking, in this context, the Islamic Republic, defending its national interests, objectively turns out to be an ally of Russia. Both Moscow and Tehran are equally interested in laying siege to Ankara. Let us recall our assumptions that the construction and launch of a railway from Iran through Iraq to Syria will be beneficial for Russia as well, since we will be able to get an alternative supply channel for our military group in the SAR bypassing the Turkish straits. The bottom line is that the maximum Russian interests in the region coincide precisely with those of Iran. Anyway, at this stage.
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