Unexpected rise in oil prices: $ 100 per barrel just around the corner

7

On September 27, the price of Brent crude oil rose to $ 79,24 per barrel, while the price of WTI crude oil reached $ 75,02 per barrel, which is higher than it was at the end of last week. The demand for "black gold", after the blow caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, is recovering unexpectedly faster than previously predicted and the supply of raw materials cannot yet catch up with it, writes the American online edition OilPrice.

But prices on sites in the northern hemisphere are spurred not only by steady demand, but also by the expectation of a cold winter. Some experts predict that the cost of a $ 100 barrel of oil is not far off.



For example, Goldman Sachs analysts report that the shortage in the oil market is now higher than previously expected. On September 26, the investment bank raised its forecast for oil prices at the end of 2021 to $ 90 per barrel. Brent, although two weeks ago I expected only $ 80 per barrel, and then $ 85 per barrel. by this time for this type of raw material.

In addition, prices are affected by the weak reaction of oil producers in the OPEC + countries, as well as the situation in the United States, which suffered from Hurricane Ida. The rampant disaster led to a decrease in US oil reserves by more than 30 million tons of barrels, which also puts pressure on prices.

While we have long held an optimistic view of oil, the current global supply and demand deficit is greater than we expected. At the same time, the recovery in global demand due to the effect of the Delta strain is happening even faster than we predicted, and the world supply remains below our forecast.

- wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.

But that's not all. According to the Saxo Bank Group, a severe energy crisis in Europe and a decline in LNG reserves in Asia are also pushing oil prices higher. Many electricity producers, given the shortage of "blue fuel", switched to the use of coal and fuel oil. Moreover, the demand for fuel oil and coal is growing; gas shortages and expensive electricity are affecting oil and “solid fuels”.

Together with rising demand for vaccines, supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida, and OPEC + 's failure to deliver on the promised increase in production, these developments are likely to support winter prices in the northern hemisphere.

- Saxo Bank said in a message.
7 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev
    0
    28 September 2021 22: 06
    Since oil prices as a whole grew steadily throughout the year, then "Unexpected" is ....
    and, an online edition, already foreign, everything is clear ...
    1. Bitter
      Bitter
      -1
      29 September 2021 09: 28
      About the gas shortage. They counted on him, but he suddenly "is not enough", and neither in Asia nor in Europe. Weird.
      Also, speculators managed to raise the price of coal. On this basis, the Chinese began rolling blackouts, which in turn hit the industry. The first signs of a shortage for products from China will appear soon. In the near future, prices for everything will be adjusted, including the "soup set".
      The only positive thing is that the Chinese will have to reduce the number of coal-fired power plants, switch to other types of fuel, or look for ways to more efficient, cleaner use of the same coal, and other energy sources as well.
      1. Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev
        0
        29 September 2021 09: 45
        This is always the case. Even when oil became cheaper, gasoline rose in price.
        Gas workers, resellers and everyone else raise prices. Profit, nothing like that

        And now prices are growing every week, despite the President's Instructions to the Prime Minister (PPP)
        1. Bitter
          Bitter
          +1
          29 September 2021 10: 57
          If after the PPP there are some kind of compensatory subsidies directly to farmers, then the process may well be slowed down. And the first task of the state is to knock on dealers on raking hands and turn super-profits into "normal" income.
          The energy problems of the Chinese, globally, are still more worrisome.
          1. Sergey Latyshev
            Sergey Latyshev
            0
            29 September 2021 11: 21
            about these "subsidies" and "ruchenkam" have been heard for 25 years already. And "priority" - also 25 years, in waves for the elections.

            And the Chinese can handle it for sure. There are no articles about this here. All Ukrainians and Evropa ...
            1. Bitter
              Bitter
              0
              29 September 2021 22: 36
              ... about these "subsidies" ...

              Yes, but now there are "new people", now the work will boil. And over there, cities with a population of over one million are about to begin, in the taiga, like mushrooms to grow. In general, there is no time for buildup, we need to prepare to initiate new, unparalleled projects.
              However, we must admit that the sanctions of the "collective West" still forced the authorities and business to start investing in their country.

              ... the Chinese can handle it for sure ...

              There is no doubt about this, but production chains are being disrupted, logistics are being merged and many industries, including in Europe, will be in a fever. We have increased the period between buying, ordering and receiving a new car of some brands from 6 weeks to 9 months.
  2. gorenina91
    gorenina91
    -2
    29 September 2021 18: 33
    Unexpected rise in oil prices: $ 100 per barrel just around the corner

    - Well, what kind of sadness is that ???
    - It's time to put up for sale huge volumes of oil products to countries producing heavy "fuel oil" ... - In Russia ... - heavy "Tatar" and "Bashkir" oil may become more in demand ...
    - Generally ... - It's time for Russia to "seize the moment" and start its "new big game" with Urals oil ... - And not look at Saudi Arabia and other branded "brent oil lawmakers" ...
    - And what about Venezuela (with its heavy "fuel oil") ... - something has not been heard about it for a long time ...
    - Russia today can very profitably trade Venezuelan oil (at the same time, Venezuela can be "gilded") ... - by the same to the United States, sell over the limit volumes of Venezuelan oil (at a "newly agreed price") ...
    - Oh, how bad it is that Russia has China nearby ... - which simply sucks all the "juices of life" from Russia for nothing ...
    - Eh, if it weren't for this monster ... - Russia itself would have already economically raised the Far East and Eastern Siberia and West Siberia, etc., etc. - South Korea and Japan are nearby and access to the "operational space" in Pacific Ocean and so on ... - But China, like a giant octopus, strangles Russia and does not allow Russian industry and the Russian economy as a whole to rise ...